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Snow showers south today?
Good afternoon everyone,
Snow showers have developed over southern Kansas. Don't be surprised if it snows near or south and east of Kansas City this afternoon. These are snow showers and would last only a few minutes as they pass through.
Then, it gets exciting for the weekend. As Brett said in the last entry it is looking like the threat of snow will be much higher on Saturday night and Sunday. We will talk about this later today.
Posted by at January 17, 2007 12:43 PM
It looks to me as is their may be some up in the city to hopefully something will develop north of the city
Posted by: Charles at January 17, 2007 12:52 PM
gary i have a birthday party on sat it is my daughters 3rd b-day do you think the snow will hold off until sat night? also do you see a little snow or maybe a big snow?
Right now the chance of snow begins late in the day. But, it is still early. Let's see what we think on Thursday.
Posted by: nikie at January 17, 2007 1:00 PM
what does "exciting" mean?
to me it means 6 inches or more....
Posted by: Ryan McMillian at January 17, 2007 1:05 PM
Oh no! I love the snow, but I will be coming back to KCI mid-day Sunday. Do you think I will be stuck in Chicago?
We will have to see how it sets up.
Posted by: Julie at January 17, 2007 1:07 PM
Will the long string of above-normal days return like we had before this cold snap? How does this fit in with your theory on weather trends repeating?
Everything is fitting perfectly. The warmer days will likely return, but it is a bit different each time through the cycle.
Posted by: Chris at January 17, 2007 1:07 PM
Yippee...bring it on! Thanks for the update, Gary!
Posted by: Christi at January 17, 2007 1:16 PM
Gary any chance of any moisture from Texas overrunning the Artic Air tonight with the south wind and causing any freezing mist tonight? So snow maybe very interesting. Keep us up to date. Michael/Topeka
NO chance of the overunning tonight. It still looks like some snow Saturday night.
Posted by: michael huffman at January 17, 2007 1:28 PM
Gary, whats causing this random precipitation event? I don't see any storms anywhere in the area yet theres (unorganized) snow to our south.
This is just a little disturbance and I am not surprised at all. I thought we could see a few snow showers and they happened. If it were spring it would have been a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Posted by: Gary at January 17, 2007 1:43 PM
Maybe I'm reading the models wrong but I see the system this weekend going south of us and we might only see a flurry or two. Now don't get me wrong a good snow storm is something I too am rooting for. Thanks for all your input.
This storm has some warning signs. Let's see what we think later tonight.
Posted by: Kevin at January 17, 2007 1:53 PM
********************************************************Gary is this a major storm or minor? Still looking for our first in. in DeKalb. We had about a .30 of in.of snow the rest was ice.............................
KCI is also still waiting. Hopefully, this weekend's storm will bring a few inches. Right now it has potentiall.
Posted by: Michael at January 17, 2007 2:00 PM
Good afternoon Gary,
How much snow accumulation are we looking at for this weekend??? I am planning a birthday party for my mom this weekend, and I am hoping for not too much snow. After being stuck in Denver during the Christmas holiday, I am getting worn out from the snow...... Keep up the good work, and thank you!!!
It doesn't look like a lot, but let's wait until Thursday to talk amounts if this storm is still showing up.
Posted by: Kathy at January 17, 2007 2:19 PM
Gary - nice job on forecasting. I live north of the city. Do you think we could possibly see a couple of inches this weekend?
Not sure yet?
Posted by: Michael at January 17, 2007 2:35 PM
Gary, I sent this too you yesterday and I do not beleve you got this. But, the last two ideas I have for now are, encahce ESP with a satellite images so in the event of severe weather you guys can better pinpoint where things are. Also, you guys may already have this but, is there anyway you can even MORE advance tehcongly, or did you guys already get that.
Now, on to something else way beond the topic. THIS IS PART of the MAIN comment. I saw you a Windy on "K9 to 5" (or was it "Dogs With Jobs"?) a few months ago. Do you remeber that. We got a look inside of your weather center then,and I was wondering, when was the last time the WX Center got remodled since your name was NBC 41 KSHB? No, I'm not getting tired of it but I was just wondering. And this too is WAY beond the topic, but has anyone there at KSHB thought of a new name for the station or a new logo? No, I'm getting tired of that either, but it just crossed my mind wether or not. But, is there a certian time frame where you guys plan to change the logo and/or name? Just wondering. I would really like to know. Thanks.
We already have the best tools available. ESP can be used in so many ways and we are still learning. So, it comes down to us utilizing the equipment. A new set is going to happen someday, maybe not this year but it has to happen sometime soon. What would you want it to look like.
Posted by: Alden at January 17, 2007 3:20 PM
Do you think the weekend storm will provide any snowfall for the St. Joseph area? St. Joseph seems to be consistently missed by the brunt of these storms. Is that unusual for one location to miss every storm in a winter season?
I have seen it happen before, but maybe you will get some snow this weekend.
Posted by: Kurt at January 17, 2007 3:23 PM
Good afternoon eveybody at the Action Weather Desk. Shockingly, this will be short: if the 12Z GFS operational verifies, (if I am seeing it correctly) I would be very happy!!!! The Euro also looks a little stronger with 500 vort but brings it north of us??? I think?? Just had to give a hooza to the 12Z Gfs because it looks pretty!!!! One snapshot in one moment of time that will be cropped and doctored several more times but sure is fun to look at right now!!!! Have a great afternoon-going to try to get one more night of sledding in!!!!
We will want it to track south of us and hold together. Something tells me this could be a problem.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 17, 2007 3:37 PM
If we do get snow over the weekend how much will we see if you would know this far out. Another thing why is it that yesterday you weren't showing this are these storms really that hard to forcast well thats all.
Posted by: Charlie at January 17, 2007 4:02 PM
I was so excited to see the 20% chance bumped up to 60%!! You just made my day! I know you are not making promises but it is stil just as excting.
Posted by: Samantha at January 17, 2007 4:38 PM
Gary, it's interesting that the storms seem to be "poofing" as they approach us now that it's cold, whereas early in the winter the storms were strengthening as they approached and even reached peak strength near us.
For all of us cold & snow lovers the GFS is sure painting a nice fantasy during the later time periods. Too bad they won't come true.
We should know Thursday. If we are more excited about it Thursday then this is a good thing!
Posted by: snowlover at January 17, 2007 5:24 PM
I looked at some of the models and the track looks to be farther south this weekend with this system on the 500mb chart. I am not liking the ridge that could build out in the West for next week. That pattern shift has the potential to warm up the northern plains AGAIN in the later periods.
It is doing what it was suppose to do, unfortunately.
Posted by: Devin at January 17, 2007 5:28 PM
Sunday will be pretty interesting. It will snow. No question. Now...how will it happen, and where and how much? Several interesting features to this one. First, like this last storm, in the SPC and GFS [hinting], the ULL again falls apart as it comes in. But, there seems to be ample cold air this time, and ample moisture...so, the lower levels should be able to carry the vort. In looking at the MSLP and some of the SPC products, I see a nice comma forming. This will be a bit stronger than the last drizzle storm. Stands to reason with the greater temperature gradient this time around. I do see this maybe showing a bit too much southern process to hit the absolute sweet spot, but think we could get some good snow. Like everyone else, I will wait until we get closer for totals, but it should be much better this time. Take a look at the SPC 3hr max snow product...looks good. It nailed the Nov storm, I trust it this time. The SPC, GFS and NAM are generally hitting the same areas...though the NAM is normally a bit flaky this far out.
I like snow this weekend with the heavier amounts S and E of the city. Just a bit of a wobble north, and we all could get a nice snow fall.
Pretty cool. If we can keep the cold air, the LRC has been pretty wet in this part of the cycle....
We will lose the cold air, I THINK?
Posted by: Scott at January 17, 2007 6:04 PM
I won my bet. I knew if the weather held until after first of the year, I had have no chance of missing winter after being in the Caribbean for a week. Going from 80+ to well under 30 is quite a change. Got my mid-winter suntan, let's have some snow!
(Skip the sleet, not fun!)
Any guesses on accumulation yet, or is the model still to early?
Oh, we can say a few inches based on the latest trends, but let's see what we think on Thursday.
Posted by: David at January 17, 2007 6:45 PM
Hey Gary got just over a dusting of snow today was really nice to see. How is the storm looking for this weekend will points south of KC see more snow?
Posted by: Daniel at January 17, 2007 8:36 PM
I can see where you think we may lose the cold air. However, its funny..its that 145 ridge and the Great Lakes low that have an influence. So much as the 145 ridge helps create these SW vorts, when it does, this last storm and this one, the northern stream flattens, wraps around the Great Lakes low, and causes a polar dip. In this case, its the polar dip that actually disrupts this ULL and causes the dissipation. Its this type of polar dip that gets here just in time to bring in the cold. Now, looking at the models, the 5400 thickness line dips in just in time, though on Fridayish we should actually dip much colder than that. -Side note, I find it facinating to watch the layers of atmosphere ebb and flow- As we approach Sat, we get a "ridge" of southern flow that fills in between the ULL and the first polar dip on Friday. As the ULL disipates [because of the secondary polar dip that in the models looks like it "bounces" the ULL into smithereens], the residual vort grabs into the jet and rides south of us. Now, the heights are still a bit suspect, but the thickness covers in that >5400 space. Checking the 700 and 850s, we are fine in that layer, as it seems this polar blast continues to be mainly at the lower levels. I am suprised not to see more overrunning than we are.
So..in a nutshell..based on what is shown now, it seems the cold will fill in just in time. One thing I have learned...as the models progress, I think I know have the tools to watch the different layers of atmosphere and determine what form if any precipitation will fall based on the different layer temps.
The NAM tracks the upper low to our north.....again! If it can just go a bit further south we could get significant snow. We still may.
You are really understanding the pattern now. As complex as it is the most dominant feature, that only we know about, is that 145 west ridge that we picked out way back in October as the main feature. And, the Great Lakes low, that in the second cycle decided to take a nap, is also a big feature and provides us with hope on this time through!
Posted by: Scott at January 17, 2007 8:45 PM
Hopefully we'll get some snow. When Los Angeles has more snow than KC, that's pretty discouraging.
Posted by: Matt P at January 17, 2007 9:07 PM