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Snowstorm is in the forecast
The new data is in and I just had a discussion with our weather team. We are thinking that 5 to 6 inches of snow is likely from this storm. The NAM and NGM models have come out with some decent amounts of precipitation in their forecast. The GFS will arrive shortly and we will update this later today. At this moment we are expecting snow to develop and spread across the area late Saturday and then a snowstorm will be in place Saturday night. This will be a wide spread snowstorm with everyone in our viewing area forecast to see about 3 inches to 6 inches of snow. There could be some local amounts greater than 6 inches and later today I will try to pick that area out on our newscasts at 5, 6, and 10 PM. Brett will have updates during Kansas City live at 10 AM this morning as well.
Below is the forecast precipitation by the NAM model for the 12 hours ending at 6 AM Sunday, and it isn't over yet. It could continue into Sunday morning. The yellow strip is about 1/2 inch liquid. This would mean around 5 inches of snow, and there could be a little comma head development in our area. If that is the case then the amounts would be higher in some locations.
Click to enlarge (Precipitation forecast, and it is all snow valid Sunday morning)
There are still a few concerns and things can and always do change. So, let's see how this trends. But, it is one day away so confidence is finally VERY HIGH that we will all see snow and quite a bit. Please be careful as going to church Sunday morning could be quite dangerous.
It's about time snow lovers!
Posted by at January 19, 2007 8:39 AM
Good call Gary and the weather team. Have a great time tracking this storm. Michael/Topeka
Posted by: michael huffman at January 19, 2007 8:50 AM
Gary I just want to say I LOVE YOU!!!! (lol) I hope this storm pans out for us here in the northland.I cant wait here comes the snow!
Posted by: nikie at January 19, 2007 8:55 AM
Thanks for the update, what great news for snow lovers! Generally, do you see the 6+ inch possibility being more on the north side of KC or the south side? We're scheduled to have an open house on Sunday, looks like we might want to postpone it till next weekend?
Tim in GW
Next weekend looks better. We haven't pinpointed the bullseye yet. We will try on the air tonight.
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 19, 2007 8:59 AM
Hello Mr. Lezak, finally looking at some descent snow. Any chance of snow Monday or will the moisture be too far to the east?
I have work starting at 3 and ending a 9pm tomorrow at snow creek. Hows the ride home looking?
It better be snowing on your way home Saturday.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at January 19, 2007 9:01 AM
Question - after Sat/Sun, the SPC shows maybe some additional flurries into Mon/Tues, as it seems the moisture from the tropics is still streaming up from the persistent low that forms again in the SW and stays there for about a week. This moisture streaming up with the polar air..seems some advection is possible. Cold air, moisture, vorticity near by? Whatcha think?
I love this teleconnection with the tropical Pacific right now!
Posted by: Scott at January 19, 2007 9:02 AM
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this is the big one! I'll be checking for updates frequently.
Posted by: Tammy at January 19, 2007 9:04 AM
Hi Gary, I hope I am not repeating anyone elses comment but my son, age 14, watched your broadcast last nite and you mentioned that this storm was unique because it had south winds. My son said that the snow storm we had in December of 2005(?) also had south winds, true? He mentioned to me that this setup is a lot like that one and that storm produced 8 inches. Thanks Charlie
I believe your son is correct about the south winds with the December, 2005 snowstorm. The winds were actually very light and the pressure was high. Besides these similarities there are many differences so let's see what happens.
Posted by: Charlie at January 19, 2007 9:08 AM
Gary, I was wondering if you give me some information about the amounts of snow that Tulsa, OK, might receive. My parents are leaving for their first cruise on Sunday and my dad is really worrying about leaving the farm with the pending snow storm(a cousin is going to feed the cattle for him). Any information you can give me would be greatly appreciated.
I enjoy watching you and your team every day. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: Jenna at January 19, 2007 9:09 AM
Gary, I'm heading to Springfield, MO, Saturday morning for work, should be back in the late afternoon...bad idea?
Posted by: Andrew at January 19, 2007 9:15 AM
Yahoooooooo! I am so excited. Thanks for doing such a great job tracking this storm! You guys are the best in the midwest! :)
Posted by: Christi at January 19, 2007 9:17 AM
i hope we get some snow....the kids LOVE it, now if i could just get used to it again.... i lived down south for 18 years and hadn't seen snow up until Dec. of '04 down there
Posted by: mindy at January 19, 2007 9:17 AM
Love the chance of snow, but we have a swim meet in Lawrence this weekend.
So we will be driving from Lansing to Lawrence at 6am Sat and 6am Sunday. How much snow do you think will be in the Lawrence area?
I am hoping the snow plows will keep I70 clear but think we will maybe leave earlier Sunday.
You folks do a great job! Thanks for all you do and have a great day!
Posted by: Ken at January 19, 2007 9:24 AM
Excellent, about time a nice large area snow storm hits us. The only thing that irritates me a little with this storm is that most of it will be falling during night time hours. I love to watch the snow fall and to have to sleep through much of it will be slightly disappointing. However, I will take it over none at all! I hope you guys get to enjoy it as much as we will. Later!
Mike in Ottawa
It accumulates better at night because it isn't battling the sun.
Posted by: Mike P at January 19, 2007 9:27 AM
I have a simple request. I like the graphic you sometimes use on the 5:00 and 6:00 PM weather casts which show the day's high, low, average for the date, record temps with date. However, you are not consistent with this. Sometimes it is on at one time, sometimes another or like at least two days this week not at all. I have searched this website looking for the information but I can't find it. Could we please just have this graphic at a set time or here on the web where we can find it.
We should show it on each newscast, especially at 10 PM. I will try to get more consistent.
Posted by: BJ at January 19, 2007 9:36 AM
Ok, Gary and team you need to be quicker on your forecast. I put out my forecast for the area a half hour before you did, thankfully you have taught me well since my forecast said 2 to 5 with localized area's getting heavier amounts. The past week and a half has been trying and I can't thank you for the education that you have given your bloggers. Thanks to you and your team I have been able to put out more accurate forecast. Have a great weekend.
I am glad the bloggers are learning and having fun trying to forecast. Remember the biggest snowstorm forecasts have sometimes ended with nothing happening. I don't think there is even a chance of that this time, but something can always go wrong.
Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2007 9:41 AM
I hope your snow totals are low this time. As I had mentioned to you earlier, it's tough when Los Angeles has already had more snow than we have.
I feel confident in this forecast, at the moment. But, there are still some challenges ahead.
Posted by: matt p at January 19, 2007 10:16 AM
Any chance of an earlier snowfall prediction chart? Perhaps just on the blog for those of us who read it? I have to travel tomorrow to Wichita for a funeral and would like to have an idea as to what travel conditions to expect and how early to head back home. I promise not to hold you to an early estimate :) Just a rough idea would be appreciated!
I will try to make one, right now I must take a little break before going to work.
Posted by: Erin at January 19, 2007 10:31 AM
Finally - REAL snowfall potential for northeast Kansas. It is great to see some consistency...I like the NAM solution as it has zeroed in on this system over the last several days.
An aside: I know it is a busy time with this storm, but have you (or your readers) read about the controversy swirling around a broadcast met from the Weather Channel who is trying to make the case for decertifying broadcast mets who don't toe the line on anthropogenic global warming? Fascinating debate...I posted my thoughts in more detail on my page (click my name) and would welcome feedback/comments from not only fellow readers, but from your broadcast team as well. This may be a better discussion for next week when things quiet down a bit though.
I heard about this for the first time yesterday. No one should be forced to believe and talk about anything. But, I don't know the details of this controversy yet.
Posted by: Jake at January 19, 2007 10:36 AM
Hi from Iola, KS....
I would like to thank all of the members of the weather team at KSHB. Since I work 2nd shift, I don't always get to see Gary at night but I do catch Brett in the mornings. As you know, Iola is situated about 2 hours from citys like Wichita, Joplin, Kansas City, Tulsa....so we don't really have a big network that carries our local weather. I just wanted to thank you all who work so hard on the forcasts because you are the most accurate.....even 2 hours away! So, now that I have gotten my thank yous out of the way....how much snow do you think the Iola area will get? How is my drive home at 11pm going to be?
Thank you so much, again! You guys are awesome!
I think you will get nearly 5 inches. A bit more is possible.
Posted by: Tabitha at January 19, 2007 10:58 AM
Yo, Gary you are a true player in the weather game. You are a true gansta, I love how you always wear really tight cloths and you never forget your Pocket Square.
Much Love Player,
No one knows but Eric Love works at Nordstrom and all of my clothing wardrobe is an Eric Love collection! But, I think his wife wrote this message.
Posted by: Eric Love at January 19, 2007 11:04 AM
The 12z GFS run seems to eject the upper wave/trof to far south given the deep trof over the eastern seaboard and a secondary wave digging into the mean trof over the Rockies. The 12z WRF run (and previous few runs) looks more reasonable in ejecting the wave further northwest of KC and bringing the mid level dry slot into her by 09z Sunday. To me, it looks more like 2-3 inches of snow with much heavier amounts in the comma head/deformation zone further north and west of KS across northwest/north central Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. The duration of the light to occasionally moderate snow would be from 00-02z until about 07-09z Sunday. We'll see, but I would be surprised if the KC area gets more than 2 to 4 inches of snow.
Posted by: Bill Barlow at January 19, 2007 11:14 AM
I was so excited this morning when I pulled up this weather page and saw "100 percent" listed for our snowfall chances.
Two weekends in a row with winter storms, I love it!
Posted by: Marlina at January 19, 2007 11:54 AM
It sure does help when we finally get some good model consistency with this storm system. A plentiful supply of moisture is good to have with a system like this. One other thing, the temperatures are warming up much faster than anticipated because I think there is some downslope warming going on. West winds are bad if you like the cold air this time of year.
Posted by: Devin at January 19, 2007 11:59 AM
I am jumping up and down. I love the snow as much as you do and we could use the moisture badly. My fingers are crossed.
Posted by: Sarah at January 19, 2007 12:10 PM
Love listening to your forecasts every morning on 980! Your upbeat attitude and commitment to excellence make you the best around! Hope this storm pans out and gives us some great snow. Even teachers like snow days :)
Have a great snowy weekend.
Posted by: Becky at January 19, 2007 12:36 PM
Gary I hope we all dont get model itus and the storm goes poof!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Michael at January 19, 2007 12:39 PM
We are leaving for Sedalia tomorrow morning and planning to come back tomorrow night any where between 3 and 7 - are you expecting the roads to be dangerous for our trip home?
Posted by: Bria at January 19, 2007 1:01 PM
I'd like to make a comment about the blogger who was talking about your "ego" and her NOAA radio. My take on this- I think she misunderstood your enthusiasm and excitement about your forecast regarding the snow happening as you predicted it would. Sometimes the forecast doesn't always happen the way it is expected to. Even as accurate as you are, Mother Nature can change things. So when it does happen the way you say it will, you are happy and pleased about it. You have a tough job and I bet it can certainly be frustrating trying to predict exactly what will happen. I love your enthusiasm and excitement in the way you do your weather forecast. You deserve to pat yourself on the back for a job well done. I hope she has a back-up battery for that radio if she should ever lose her power. Keep doing what you are doing and bring on the snow!!!
Thanks for the support!
Posted by: susyhensler at January 19, 2007 1:06 PM
It looks to me that the GFS may be ejecting the upper wave too far south given the next upper wave moving into the mean trof now over the Rockies/Great Basin and with another upper trof over the Great Lakes and northeast. The WRF/NAM looks more on target with a further northwest track and the KC area getting into the mid level dry slot after 06z Sunday. I would be surprised if the KC area gets more than 2-4" of snow from this system...with much heavier amounts from northwest and north central Kansas across Nebraska in the deformation zone.
Posted by: Bill Barlow at January 19, 2007 1:15 PM
I am a teacher and I put my weather predictions on my board today as, "Frosty the (deep) SNOWman." By following your forecast they think I can predict the weather. Keep up the good work!
I think your forecast is going to verify! Have a great weekend.
Posted by: Mrs. W at January 19, 2007 1:38 PM
FINALLY! Now, I just need to get the ice from the last storm off the drive way!
Posted by: Chuck at January 19, 2007 1:49 PM
Gary and the Action Weather Team:
Good early afternoon to you good people!!! I can only imagine how busy you are especially with the 12Z data!!!! Do I dare get excited??? The ULL track on the NAM while a bit further south, still seems like the fly in the ointment....Oh who am i kidding-of course I'm excited!!!!! 4-6 inches of snow is a significant event for here!!!!! However, I am keeping the ULL NAM track in the back of my mind to keep me honest. Like the Romans soldiers use to tell the generals during a triumph that fame is fleeting, snow on models in KC 36 hours out is also fleeting!!! LOL!!
Thanks so much for sharing all the information you do-I really may not look at another model until next Tuesday-why spoil it?????!! The high clouds are moving in-the bass are in the shallows-the boat is gassed up and working...but do I have the right lure??? Have a great day!!!!!
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 19, 2007 1:52 PM
Gary, just wondering why we continued to see all those schools and activities cancalled all week, even after Wed. Thurs. when things around here were so much better. Was it just that much worse in other places, were they just precautionary, or what?
Posted by: MP Miller at January 19, 2007 2:14 PM
Great coverage of the past storms. Really enjoy your broadcast. My question is on this next snowstorm. As it is 40 degrees, could this impact the amount of precip for the storm? Will this bring more moist air along with the system? Thanks. Have a great day.
It will cool off tonight so temperature near the ground will not be a problem.
Posted by: Pat at January 19, 2007 2:33 PM
Hey Gary ... as a pastor (who also happens to be a weather nut), I appreciate you telling people to "be careful going to church Sunday" instead of the hysterical "don't go outside - it's just toooooo scary!" that sometimes comes across from the media.
The past two weeks, I've sent a Friday email to my congregation saying "we're having church no matter what the weather, because I will be there even if I have to hitch my dog up to a sled!" :-) I think it worked because last Sunday, 600 of our usual 800 showed up in spite of the ice, so it can be done.
Anyway, thanks - and let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
Great point. I have been in the studio covering rather significant ice storms and snowstorms and then on the way home many people are still getting around. Unless it is truly a 25 inch snow storm it can be done, so I try to make that point.
Posted by: Rick at January 19, 2007 2:58 PM
Oh, please tell me St. Joe is finally going to see some good snow! It seems like all of the good snow goes south of us. Gary and weather team, just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work. We trust you because you care enough to keep your viewers in the know with not only how much but also why it will happen. Thanks for the blog. So informative!
Christi, St. Joe
Posted by: Christi at January 19, 2007 3:00 PM
The NWS has KC at a 70% chance or greater of receiving 4+ inches. They have us at only a 10% chance of receiving 8+ inches. Do you see a better chance of us receiving an amount of 8 inches or more or will this storm max out at around 6 inches?
Also, they continue to list a 20% or greater chance of snow for Tuesday. Your forecast has been consistent in showing no chance of snow on Tuesday. What are they looking at that even remotely shows a snow chance for Tuesday?
FYI, I'm an avid ice fisherman and the guideline you gave last night of 2+ inches of ice is pretty close. To be safe, when we first walk on a lake or pond we drill holes 10 feet apart and look for ice at least 3 inches thick to feel comfy. We've fished on 2 inches of ice, but it's always been on a pond, never on a lake. I wouldn't recommend walking a lake with only 2 inches of ice. The Corps of Engineer guide is 3 inches for a man and his equipment; 6 inches for a man and a horse; 10 inches for vehicles no bigger than a passenger car and 12+ inches for trucks. Our friends up north look for 16+ inches and then they'll drive any vehicle, including gravel trucks across the ice. Have a friend who makes his winter living driving trucks across Lake of the Woods. They keep a lane plowed on the lake to allow for maximum thickness. It's good to remember that snow cover on ice will keep the lake from freezing to its maximum thickness. In Kansas, we want ice clear of snow to be safe. Just interesting info since you brought it up last night.
Have fun tracking the storm!
Posted by: Brad at January 19, 2007 3:44 PM
Gary, as a snow lover myself, I want to applaud you and the 41 Weather Team for getting as excited about snow as you are about sunsets, comets, thunderstorms, and tornadoes.
With each local channel being close to the same in weather coverage, sometimes a little enthusiasm goes a long way with catching and keeping our attention, hence our loyal viewership.
Thanks, but one point I would like to make, I don't like tornadoes. It is my least favorite kind of weather. Unfortunately they come out of thunderstorms, and I love thunderstorms.
Posted by: Ron Smith at January 19, 2007 3:48 PM
This is a question I have that I have been wondering for a very long time. Action WX+ is certified by WeatheRATE most accurate, but, are you guys certified by any OTHER certification companies. Such as the AMS, or NWS? If so, why haven't you guys mentioned them.And if not, what do you have to do to be certified by one of them AMS/NWS, for their seal of approval. Oh, and is there a such thing as a Seal of EXCELLENCE?If so, you guys should have it. I was just wondering because there are other newstation in the country that are certified by AMS or NWS. In fact KSNW in Witchta (NBC staion) is certified by AMS and NWS. Just really wondering. Thanks.
We all have the AMS SEAL OF APPROVAL besides us being certified most accurate by Weatherate.com.
Posted by: Alden at January 19, 2007 3:52 PM
Reading this weather blog, you have this Marine Mom worried! My son deploys tomorrow 1-20-07 6:30am commercial flight from KCI to Chicago, landing at 7:55am. I would like to know the weather outlook. Leaves Chicago 11:05am for Tokyo: 13+ hr. flight. Lands in Tokyo 3:15pm, leaves Tokyo on another commercial flight 7:40pm Sun. Jan. 21 and lands in Okinawa 10:30pm 1-21. So, my question: How does the weather look for that route? We have to be at KCI early as a Marine can't miss a flight!
There will be no problems Saturday morning!
Posted by: Mari at January 19, 2007 4:23 PM
This looks like an 8:1 to 10:1 ratio to me with the column close to isothermal at 0 degrees C...I personally think 4 to 7".
I think it will be a 10 or 11 to 1 ratio.
Posted by: Lance at January 19, 2007 4:26 PM
Who owns the esp system? Do multiple stations "buy time" for use?
We own our ESP system. We incorporate 5 NexRad radars into it.
Posted by: Randy Senior at January 19, 2007 6:10 PM
It look like this storm will not be as prolonged as the last, and this will be more easy to shovel. We do you think the precip will end? some say monday night?
There may be lingering snow flurries or snow showers Sunday afternoon through Monday. A second storm develops on Monday well southwest of here. We still have to watch that one closely.
Posted by: Anne at January 19, 2007 7:48 PM
bought a new sled, bought a new shovel, ready to take on the big hill with my kids around noon on Sunday. BRING ON THE SNOW!
Posted by: Ron at January 19, 2007 7:56 PM
Is there any chance that the deformation band can set near us in KC? Any chance of any THUNDERSNOW? That would jack up the snow totals quickly.
Posted by: Andy at January 19, 2007 8:47 PM