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Gary,

Thanks for constantly updating the blog with the latest weather data. I am a climatologist and I really enjoy the discussion about the various meterorological processes that are affecting our weather. I only moved to KC in Dec. 2005 (moved from Louisiana). After watching several of the local news stations, it is clear that KSHB consistently provides the most accurate weather forecast.

Question: Based on how our winter has played out so far, how does it compare to the long range forecast the NWS issued back in Oct/Nov/Dec?
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Stephen,

Good question, and we are glad that you are enjoying the blog.

This winter is actually playing out almost exactly as we predicted in November. We thought that the NWS forecast, which is based almost entirely on El Nino anomalies, would be a bit off. The long wave troughs and ridges were not going to support the typical El Nino forecast. So, their forecast has been quite a bit off. The Pacific Northwest has been quite wet, although not in the past three weeks or so. The Southern California coast has been quite dry, which is not suppose to happen during an El Nino winter, and the cold air is not supposed to settle into the Great Lakes states as it is now. But, this is exactly what we thought would happen. I will blog about this later today. I am sure you have heard of the LRC, my weather pattern theory. It has happened again. If you haven't, I believe the weather pattern sets up in October and early November and then is set and begins cycling. There are "long term" long wave troughs and ridges that are the predominant features and return into their position through the entire season and into spring and summer before the pattern falls apart in late summer. More on this later today.

Gary

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I hope you had a great time!!!
WOW, a weather forcast and a technology forcast:) neat!
Well I'm glad as we are really getting a winter stretch, we may make a run at having at least some ice/snow on the ground for a month before its all completely gone!!
Hopefully the cold air doesn't make it too far to the southeast because we already lost California's oranges so now we are probably relying on Florida's crop.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

If it is going to get this cold, then let it snow. I really don't like the cold unless it is going to snow. Otherwise it is just annoying and a waste, but I love snow so much that I embrace the cold.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
My friends and I were sitting in the break room at work the other night discussing the weather and one of them mentioned that she had heard that at the end of February we are supposed to have a huge snow storm- one of the worst of the century! I was just wondering if you have any information supporting this claim?
Thanks,
Tabitha, Iola
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Tabitha,

The part of the weather pattern that has produced our biggest winter storms will likely return at the end of February, but will it be a snowstorm, a rain storm, or just clouds? We just don't know yet.

Gary

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Sweet! computer on big screens! Did you see the pictures of snow in Las Cruces,NM (near El Paso,TX) that I Sent? I sent them to Nelson and if I need to I send them to you! My grandparents sent them to me from snow they got just Sat.?
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Andrew,

I have a friend that lives there. Those pictures are amazing. It doesn't often snow in Las Cruces.

Gary

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Gary
I am headed to Vegas as well on Thursday night out of KCI, does weather look like it will not produce any delays

thank you
tony
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Tony,

It doesn't look like any delays on Thursday! Have a great trip.

Gary

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I would have to disagree when you say this winter has played out "almost exactly" as predicted. December was very warm, in some cases the warmest ever, in areas around the Great Lakes, which you said would be colder than average. The above average temps lasted well into January.
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Rob,

Disagree all you want. I said "almost" exactly. And, it has! It is amazing! We can debate this forever, but the cold I predicted for that region is occurring, and long lasting. If you add it up in the end I may be off a bit, but it is "almost" right. We don't need to fight about it though.

Gary

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Gary:

Good mid morning!!! Once again welcome back!!!!

Indeed, many people think I am crazy regarding this weather!!! I grew up during (not to date myself!!) those 3-5 abnormally cold winters of the late 70's and early 80's and we used to play hockey/ice football on the lakes and have huge bomb fires-it was awesome!!! I have realized since then that this was really a rarity and was a great stretch of cold that is not normal-but, my mid was hooked!!! Thus, I want my kids to enjoy this like I did!!! LOL!! The lake is small (like Weatherby) and has been iced for almost a week and we will be back in the cabin arm and pretty shallow water so I think the ice will be ok-however, we will stay close to the dock!!!! Thanks again-still think this week will be interesting-better than last January!! LOL

Have a great day

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

Let us know how it goes. The ice should really be solid by Saturday!

Gary

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Ok Gary, what is the over/under for Wednesday’s snow? I think it will be a bit more than a dusting, but less than a major storm…looking at the SPC, they are showing maybe 1-3 inches based on the prog. The key will be the speed of the storm…I see up to 24 hrs where we could be in or around snow. It seems the moisture streams up to meet this polar front. If we get the moisture as predicted, and this slows down, I expect a bit more…. We are 2 days away, and you show 30%. Ready to raise that yet?

As far as Rob's comment regarding the winter forecast...I would warn everyone to evaluate AFTER the season is over...December was warm, but January, February, and March should be pretty cool. Over time, the prediction should be pretty close. Also, lets consider everything that goes into this prediction..though meteorlogists are paid to understand all the details, I would challenge any person to get even one of the details right 100% of the time. Also..the winter forecast borderlines more of a climatology perspective...even those are pretty variable...

Critics....LOL.
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Scott,

The over/under will be 1.25 inches. I will take the over.

As far as the winter forecast goes I think it is doing what we predicted but with the El Nino influence as expected. We will have to look back later, but as I said to the blogger criticizm there is no reason to argue about it. We are talking long range forecasting here. Just to come close is very good. I was just saying that the forecasts that came out from the NWS, ACCU weather, etc. all said basically that there would be almost no winter. And, we said it would be more of a winter this year. I am going to blog about it this afternoon.

Gary

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Gary, welcome back! Hope you had a relaxing and fun vacation. Please give us all of the details of your trip. Wait! What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Sorry, I forgot about that. By the way, I feel the exact same way: cold without snow is a nuisance and total waste.

Jay
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Yes, it was a great time! But, now it's back to our weather in Kansas City! And, I think it is going to snow.

Gary

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Morning Gary, glad you are back. Brett, Jeff and Jeremy did a great job while you were gone. As I was out this morning (just 15 mins ago) I saw the Artic Front with its approaching clouds. It looks cool coming in. Your winter forecast has been right on the nose. My sister in Michigan has said that finally they are getting very cold and they have had some snow. Who knows if we will get any more major storms but as the cycle continues wouldn't the end of February be somewhat warmer? Oh how does the fact that Alaska which was supposed to be warmer than normal play out in the fact they have had one of the coldest and snowest in some years. Discounts the old El Nino forecast by some. Thanks for your work, michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Thanks! It should warm up within 10 days. But, it isn't quite showing up yet.

Gary

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Gary,
As Brett mentioned at the bloggers' meeting, Feb. 5 has a fairly-high percentage of snow occurrences here. What does it look like for now?
Also, as far as over/unders are concerned, what is the over/under on Brett making his polar bear dip? What do your foresee for the weather for that day?
Thanks and welcome back!
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Matt,

I have a feeling that the lake will be frozen over. What do they do then? We will ask Brett on Tuesday.

And, I had forgotten about Brett's stat of February 5th. Wow, and the GFS has a little snow here that day?

Gary

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Actually, even with the current cold snap, the upper midwest is well above average for the month of January. See this map:

http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/month.tdev.gif

So that's two months in a row of warmth in the area precited to be well below average.
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Touche Rob,

Yes, you are correct. El Nino has likely influenced the pattern. This is why those forecasts that came out did not mean there wouldn't be a winter, but overall it could be warmer. Anyway, it is what it is. Our forecast for that area would have been off.

Gary

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Its funny how once someone mentions "El Nino" most everyone is guilty of predicting a very vague pattern of anomolies that in of themselves trend behaviors, that have been determined over a very short amount of time[ 50 yrs?]. These anomilies are only that. They do not count for extremes that make up the trending, nor do they account for any other features of the year that could alter them. Additionally, for those seeking clarification from the CRC, they even indicated that the current El Nino pattern likely has not affected the upper atmosphere of North America.

I fear in this new world of enhanced communication, people take "expert" opinions at face value and do not do further research. The trick is there are very few experts - many talking heads, and fewer experts than can tie all the relationships together. This may indicate the importance of what the LRC proves out.

I will take the over as well.
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Scott,

So deep, what an analysis. So you are in on the over. Let's see what others think.

Gary

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Gary,
I believe that El Nino might be weakening quicker. The SSTs in the Western Pacific look to be rapidly decreasing. SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific are also decreasing too.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
Devin
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Devin,

We will see how it goes with El Nino. But, I know this weather pattern continues with or without El Nino.

Gary

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Hi Gary, isn't it looking like the best chance for precip it closer to Fri. am?
GaryB
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Gary,

Not really. But, it could end up being a good chance. If the wave sharpens up over the Rockies then it will snow along the stronger Arctic front.

Gary