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The next 10-15 days will see increasingly colder weather with 2-3 snow chances. As the next 5-7 days go by a large ridge is going to build around 140 degrees west latitude (fits the LRC). It appears it will become full latitude. See map #1. This large ridge will force a deep trough to carve out over the eastern 3/4 of the USA. Several cold fronts will move through the next 10 days, each one reinforcing our cold.
What about snow? Well, this will depend on how much energy can drop into the Rockies on the west side of this large trough. With the cold air in place it will not take much upper level energy to create areas of snow. The latest 18Z GFS has more Rockies energy than previous runs. Thus, it has 2-3 snow chances. One is at 144 hours, the other at 204 hours. See map #2. These would not be huge storms, but could each produce a few inches. If we get snow on the ground, it will really get cold here!
MAP #1: VALID NEXT WEDNESDAY
CLICK TO ENLARGE
MAP #2: VALID IN 9 DAYS
CLICK TO ENLARGE
Posted by at January 25, 2007 5:16 PM
Well, im waiting for it. When is the next chance of a major snowstorm? Major as in NOV.30th type storm. I know we just had 4inches of snow, (by the way, great commercial.), but that just didnt suite me for a major storm. Here where I live, total so far for the year we've had 4" of snow. All of that from last week. So I was just wondering. We do still have 2 more months or winter, but I hope that they have a massive snowstorm in them. Like it was said at 5:00pm, you do see a chance of a major cold spell, but in that, is there a chance of a major snowstorm? Sorry, if I am getting on your nerves about this, but I just really love snow and was just wondering.
Thanks for your thoughts. The cold looks like a guarantee...the snow is still iffy. However, we feel there is a decent chance of 2 rounds of snow in early February. IF we get snow...the true arctic air would result in highs in the teens and lows below zero. We'll keep everyone posted.
Posted by: Alden at January 25, 2007 5:32 PM
Jeremy I looked at the maps that you posted and I agree. It could really get cold however could one of the storms surprise us? Thanks, Mike/Topeka
In weather forecasting surprises are always possible. But the snow chances coming up(based off current trends) look like the several inch variety...maybe not the prolonged ice, sleet, or snow type events we've seen a couple of times this season.
Posted by: mike huffman at January 25, 2007 5:46 PM
It was kind of amusing looking at the latest run of the GFS. The storm they had on day 9 was also indicated at on the 12Z run. Also, the 850 temps do not appear to get as low as they should with straight cross polar flow from Siberia. I can only imagine how much lake effect snow the UP will get in the next few weeks!
Enjoy the warmer weather on Friday...because next week looks colder...and the beginning of Feb. might be really cold(maybe teens for highs?). We'll continue to track this over the next several days to see if the trend continues.
Posted by: Devin at January 25, 2007 6:53 PM
Wow, the comment format looks really weird, the comments are all red and underlined and if the curser moves over them they appear that they can be cliked on, is this something new, or a glitch?
Today I got to thinking, we will never have official wind chills like we used to, I know that they are not any warmer than they used to be, but I remember as a kid having wind chill advisories for 20 to 30 below wind chills rather often before they changed the formula, I remember once there being around "50 below zero" wind chills during a winter storm along time ago. Now I realize that "50 below" is something that I will likely not see around here ever again! Just a thought.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!!
The issue should be fixed. That was kind of neat though:) I remember growing up in MN and having -70 degree wind chills a few times. I like the new scale...I never want to experience a -70 degree wind chill!
Posted by: Nick Rau at January 25, 2007 9:04 PM
Jeremy, is there any possibility, we could experience bone chilling sub-zero temps. and a massive blizzard virtually crippling the entire midwest, or am I just going to have to settle for this? Just havin' a little fun, I'll be watching at 10:00. Greg.
Actually the set up is there in 8-11 days for a massive winter storm. We need the right combination of cold air with a southwestern trough. Lets hope we get at least a few inches!
Posted by: Greg at January 25, 2007 10:00 PM
Good Winter's Morning to the Action Weather Team!!!! Nice outside this morning-temps. in the upper 20's the sw breeze has a bit of a bite to it!!
A couple of things I noticed on the 3 past model runs that to me are interesting (not sure if correct or not lol)
1. It seems that the Euro and GFS have both shifted the core of the cold air and lower 500 hts. back to the west-which if verifies, would push the core of the cold down onto us. To me, this fits the LRC much better than an eastern core of cold air-esp. considering October
2. Both models now show much stronger southern jet activity. Granted it is a bit too suppressed for us as currently progged, but the set up to me is there-if you like snow and cold (as I obviously do!!! not in April-July but now yes-better to have the cold now than to have upper 30's and drizzely in April) the ingredients are beginnning to take shape. It looks like the front will set up somewhere in southern Oklahoma into central Arkansas-this all fits well with the LRC (I think??) and man if the 6Z GFS verifies it will be cold!!!!
This is just somethings I have noticed-not sure if I'm on the right track, but I am thinking we are for sure about to set into a 8-12 day period of very cold-could be the longest coldest stretch we have seen since 2004-take that with the past 2 weeks and we have had a real winter-if this verifies!!! Looks to be a fun time following this-very excited to watch/hope on the models and more so on the blog!!! Thanks for reading and have a great day!!!!
Bill in Lawrence
Good observations. I cautioned a couple of days ago that it may be too early to jump on the coldest of the air heading east. It still looks like the coldest air in several years will pay a visit in early Feb. We were the first to mention this AND the snow chances for early Feb. The LRC gives us an advantage over everyone. Thanks for checking in!
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 26, 2007 5:51 AM
I am a teacher. I teach Special Education in Blue Springs. Just wanted to let you know that I read the blog daily. I am currently teaching latitude and longitude and have incorporated your blog into today's lesson. It is nice to have an opportunity to show kids what they are learning in class can relate to events happening around them. What an opportunity to teach that you do not have to understand everything that you read, (there are many times that the blog is too technical for me to understand) but if you watch and study and be patient, you can learn.
Thanks, Mary in Blue Springs
We are glad that you enjoy the blog! We try to range from beginner weather lover to those that are more advanced. If you ever have questions about something please let us know!
Posted by: Mary Biniki at January 26, 2007 9:02 AM
Jeff... Jeremy Thanks for the info i hope we get at least on major storm out of this artic blast .... jerry action weather fan in the northland
Some of the new data still looks good for a couple of snow chances...and very cold by early Feb.! I'll post a new blog later this afternoon with an update.
Posted by: Jerry at January 26, 2007 10:13 AM
Hello weather team, hows the weather looking for the 2nd of February? It'll be my 18th Birthday, would like to go skiing on some real snow, it would be great to have a white birthday.
Any chance of that happening?
A Groundhog Birthday! We do have a chance of some lighter snow around the 1st. But the main thing will be the COLD! I'll have an update on the snow chances later this afternoon.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at January 26, 2007 11:10 AM
Ok, I accept that it's going to be even colder over the next several days. But must we really wish for blizzards? Let's just get one more little snowfall, if we must, and then move on to the severe weather that comes with WARMER temps.Other than the surprises of March 12th, it was kind of slow in that area to me. The only time I feel really warm lately is when I'm asleep, dreaming I am back in So Cal.
I'm hoping the blizzards stay away. The cold will be enough. I think people may be surprised if the models verify on this cold air mass. Highs could be in the teens for more than one day!
Posted by: Jeri Correll at January 26, 2007 11:34 AM
KCI is showing 51F at 241pm. Good show. Too bad we won't see this again until end of FEB!!!
I hope we see a warm spell before the end of Feb.! Keep in mind we were the only one's forecasing 50s today 6-7 days ago.
Posted by: TW at January 26, 2007 2:42 PM
Glad to see my thoughts in early Jan are validating. I thought it would get very cold and stay cold for awhile. I still think we are going to have a long winter, and this cold air will be around into March..granted not as cold, but may be colder than normal.
I will be interesting to see how the new polar blasts influence the SW vorts...I get the feeling they should suppress and we will see more frontal activity...
If this weekend is any indication we will see many fronts with this colder air mass ahead. Once the core of the cold moves over the Midwest it will very likely be very cold and dry. Before the coldest air reaches us we should see a snow chance around Feb. 1. If we get a snow pack before the coldest air arrives will may see a couple of days with sub-zero lows and daytime highs in the teens. I'm ready for spring!
Posted by: Scott at January 26, 2007 3:02 PM
Hello, after seeing what you said about the groundhog, made me think. Its more likey the groundhog see his shadow because of all of the cameras flasing there lights. IF they didnt, it wouldnt see its shadow and here comes spring. But we never know. I like winter and would look forward to 6 more weeks of it. If we get spring earlier, we better have a snowstorm in then!
That's an interesting take on the Groundhog. If spring is right around the corner...it may be a long corner I'm affraid.
Posted by: Alden at January 26, 2007 3:14 PM
How does the snowpack on the ground lower the air temperature?
The example I like to use with snow keeping the atmosphere cool is kind of like ice cubes in a glass. The ice cubes must absorb heat to melt...in turn cooling the liquid that the cubes are in. Snow works much the same way. Another thing to consider is that snow reflects much of the solar radiation back to space...so the ground does not absorb the 'sun's energy'. The is known as Albedo. Hopefully this helps.
Posted by: Marlina at January 26, 2007 4:22 PM