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Weekend Forecast & bloggers video
Good evening everyone,
Here is the link to last nights weathercast (that I struggled through a bit) which opens with the video from last nights meeting. You can see a few of you....enjoy: http://kshb.dayport.com/launcher/231953/
The GFS is now coming out and will provide yet another solution on this up coming storm system. Have you been paying attention to the European model. It has been flip flopping all over the place. The past 3 days or so it has tried to have the big system cut off the west coast and then just sit there. We knew that wasn't possible as it didn't fit the pattern. It now has another solution today that almost gets it right. My point, though, is that so many forecasters just love that model when my experience has been the GFS wins out most of the time. Not all of the time, but most of the time the GFS will beat the ECMWF model.
We have some drizzle this afternoon and an area of light rain moving across the Kansas/Nebraska state line. We may see some showers this evening and then the weekend looks good. We will have a few areas of clouds moving by. The winds should be light Saturday and then become stronger from the northwest on Sunday. The flow aloft is strengthening in the next week in response to the temperature contrast developing. Did you know that this temperature contrast is what helps create the jet stream via the "thermal wind"? We almost have an Alberta clipper of some sorts Sunday, and again Monday in this fast flow. If we had cold air in the USA already then the next 3 days could be interesting, but instead besides some wind shifts we will have to wait 7 days.
Next weekend will be different as a major storm system should be developing. We will talk about it in detail by later in the weekend and next week. My ski trip beginning next Friday night is in jeapordy.
Have a great weekend.
Posted by at January 5, 2007 4:05 PM
I will hope that this storm system will give us some snow. I hope this year does not give us the lowest seasonal snowfall totals ever. I am also hoping that the Arctic Oscillation goes negative in combination with this part of the pattern. A good polar vortex in Canada would also be nice for a change as well. Thanks
Arctic Oscillation going negative? Well, don't worry. We have two good stretches of winter still coming our way. One begins next weekend. It should snow with that outbreak.
Posted by: Devin at January 5, 2007 4:15 PM
My daughters 8th birthday is on the 12th. We were thinking about having her party on the 13th or 14th. Should I go ahead and plan for that weekend, or should I just skip it all together due to that weather system coming and just wait until the next weekend? I know its kinda early yet.
Right now I am expecting a winter storm next weekend. Good luck!
Posted by: Keri Worley at January 5, 2007 4:16 PM
Have a great weekend!! I want a snow storm for sure, but in the end I hope you can go skiing-I love to ski and would never wish anyone not to be able to go-even for the sake of snow!!!!
I have noticed the flip flop of the Euro-every run seems to be different!!! The GFS has been fairly consistent in its overall output with subtle differences but the overall idea is there. Like I said this morning it does look like cold is a very safe bet-the precip and type should be worked out or a better idea by early next week as you have stated-I am excited if for nothing else at least it will feel cold!!! It also is showing that the LRC is spot on-Awesome Awesome stuff with the LRC!!! Just amazing-I can't say that enough!!!!
Well, have a great weekend-Sunday-Tuesday look fairly chilly at least compared to the past few days-small steps!!!! Take care!!
These Alberta "cloppers", not quite clippers, will bring us a little excitement the next three days. We will have wind shifts and temperature swings. Usually we would have Arctic air near by and the temperature swings would be dramatic, but not this year.
The 18z run has potential. I should know better, but I always hope for an interesting twist in the pattern. It has happened before, and then everything still falls into place. If we can just somehow block up the flow then today's GFS has more of a potential, even though it is unlikely at this moment.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 5, 2007 4:16 PM
Teleconnections. Wow. I have yet to even really dig into this, but found some very interesting statements from the CPC regarding definition and impacts of the CPC.
"The term "teleconnection pattern" refers to a recurring and persistent, large-scale pattern of pressure and circulation anomalies that spans vast geographical areas."
"Teleconnection patterns reflect large-scale changes in the atmospheric wave and jet stream patterns, and influence temperature, rainfall, storm tracks, and jet stream location/ intensity over vast areas."
I think I have found the place I really want to dig in. This seems to both impact, and/or create factors of the LRC, where the LRC in of itself serves as an extension as it relates to North America, and the associated cycles in which are formed. Pretty cool stuff. I will follow up when I can get some kind of grasp of the 10 different teleconnection patterns, but prodimantly the ones that more directly affect the North American area - maybe 5 of these.
I am not big on teleconnections...........uh oh....your saying.....oh no, come on Gary......
Teleconnections can be important, but when we know the LRC then it is much more than teleconnections. A certain pattern we are in now will be different in three days, so if you teleconnect the current situation, then there are so many times it will throw you off.
Posted by: Scott at January 5, 2007 4:22 PM
I guess i missed the tour.. had to get back to trenton before it got way too late. but i enjoyed the meeting and my wife even liked it.
I was so looking forward to meeting you! Thank you so much for coming. A few people ended up taking a short tour into the studio. There was no way we could take all 100 people in there, but in the end there were a few left and we brought them in.
You are an important asset to our team. Keep me updated and I love all of your advice!!!!
Have a great weekend.
Posted by: Glen Briggs at January 5, 2007 4:25 PM
Gary, where are you going sking? I'm headed to Breckenridge that weekend and it looks like it will be cold with a chance of snow.
We are supposed to go to Beaver Creek. The 00z data would say I get to go, but I know that it is wrong.
Posted by: Scott A at January 5, 2007 4:27 PM
Jeopardy? You might as will cancel now!! Thanks to the entire team for last night, I was amazed at the number of people who attended and have such interest in the weather. I tell everyone I know how much better you guys are than the competition, hopefully it's helping.
Did you see the GFS run at 18z? Wow! Rain, then ice, then snow, and again snow. There is hope. But, all during my trip. I probably won't be going. I will float that possibility all the way into Thursday.
Posted by: snowlover at January 5, 2007 4:33 PM
hey Gary! do you think that the storm system could be as strong as the one back on Nov. 30th? or will it mainly be rain and a small possibility of snow?
I am expecting a pretty good chance. But, will it take the same track as the last one? Plus, sometimes the same pattern repeats but very different things happen near the surface. We should know some of these answers by early to mid next week.
Posted by: Jacob at January 5, 2007 4:42 PM
What an awesome week we will have if(when) the Chiefs win on Saturday and a big storm at the end of the week. As much as I would love for you to go on your ski trip, I want some snow in the Northland way more. Sorry Gary. Maybe you can go take a ski trip before Feb 25th.
If I am off to Colorado next Friday then this is bad news for weather fans. If I am still here then we should get blasted.
Posted by: Ann at January 5, 2007 5:00 PM
Looking at the model runs today it appears that they are warmer for the extended range than they were yesterday. Is there still some hope we can get some arctic air along with the potential for a storm?
It depends on which run you look at. Let's see how much Arctic air builds up during the next five days. It may be a struggle.
Posted by: Devin at January 5, 2007 5:35 PM
Gary, Can I fax the weather plus storm spotter sheet to you. It would be awesome to be apart of that. I had to leave quickly last night to get the kids. Thanks (Dallas) Mike in DeKalb
Just email me the information and I will print it out.
Posted by: michael at January 5, 2007 6:31 PM
To the whole staff,
I really enjoyed last night. I'm struggling with jealousy when I look at the photos in the book. From what I've seen, they're awesome.
I really appreciated looking at the LRC, especially as it pertains to New England. Being from there, I also watched your maps as you showed 2004-05. As you pointed out the weather cycle here in the Kansas City area, it always appeared to have a matching low pressure system in the northeast.
Thanks again for the great job. I look forward to you and your staff doing it again.
PS Gary, you didn't tell us we were going to meet Judge Alito last night. Thanks for the surprise.
Yes, we work with Judge Alito every day. It is amazing how much Jeff looks like him!
Posted by: Matt P at January 5, 2007 7:52 PM
Gary, I have two thoughts: To address your reply, I look at teleconnections more from a macro or longer scale perspective. More from the larger slower moving factors that influence pattern trends, not patterns themselves.
Ok..here is what I think about what I have learned so far. There are many different oscilations that track teleconnections. Each of these TCs influence the other in a complex relationship, or dance if you will. To date, I am not sure if its clear how a state of one TC may affect another or at what combination between two or many TCs will cause a certain event or trend. To that extent, I believe chasing this relationship could take years of research. I do find interesting however that in premise, the LRC and TCs are similar, but the LRC has an observed mechinism and defined timeframe. With this, I bet...if I were to look at all the TCs and their associated readings on a particular date, apply the LRC cycle length to it, and check the TCs again at the beginning of the next LRC cycle, that the TC readings should be fairly similar as the previous. They may differ a bit due to that pesky amplitude factor that even upsets the LRC. But in general, its my premise that using the LRC and the various oscilation readings from each of these TCs...I bet there is a connection.
Sounds like a thesis paper, huh?
Yes it does sound like a thesis. I sort of do teleconnections in my mind every day. I am always thinking of how the pattern should act.
Posted by: Scott at January 5, 2007 8:06 PM
I know its still a week off, but do you have any snofall totals made up yet, or is it just still to early to tell? And by looking at the track of the storm (that too could be to far out to tell) do you think that us here on the Western and Norhten part of the city could see some really BIG snowfall. But, since you said it it like the Nov. storm, wont the people down south get all of the snow again, or will Mother Nature be nice to us and let us here on the Western and Northen parts get all of the snow, while they get nothing? Hopefully the cold air will stick around and we could see Below Average temps. around the area.
We could get nothing and we could get buried. The latest 00z GFS had not much, but I think it made some major errors tonight. I still lean towards a solution very similar to November 30th. We will know more soon.
Posted by: Alden at January 5, 2007 8:15 PM
Gary, and team,
I was just looking at the Accuweather.com 15 day forecast, and around day 7 it starts to show the storm. it has an ice event to start things, then SNOW. Is it me, or does that scenario sound very fammiliar? lol. The GRC does it again. I really dont see how people can deny your theory exists. Here is the proof.This is why you are byfar the most acurate in KC. Do you think Accuweather is a good source to look at?, is there a site that have any other models than GFS, NGM, AVN,and NAM?
Look at it if you want to. I don't like it as their forecasts are so modelitis. They just are wrong so often, but that forecast is really just based on a couple of recent computer model runs. We know that the LRC is working well in our forecasting. This storm could do the same thing, but then again, something very different may still happen. If nothing happens, or everything happens we still know that the same pattern is cycling.
Posted by: Andy at January 5, 2007 10:13 PM
Thanks for showing the pics from the Nebraska ice storm on the Ten O'clock news. We were headed back from Christmas break from Nebraska and just missed the worst of that storm. I can't imagine that hitting Kansas City.
Regarding your LRC, how do you go about publishing or confirming that this cycle occurs with the rest of the meteorology community?
Also, would this theory apply to other locations in the Northern Hemisphere (Europe/Asia etc)?
I'm guessing that the LRC would work in the Southern Hemipshere???
I believe it does apply to the northern hemisphere. I am pretty sure something similar happens in the southern hemisphere, but I haven't studied it at all.
To publish it I would need a little more graphical data to be able to show the cycles that exist. Then I could write it up and present it for publication in the bulletin of the AMS. This may happen, but it will have to wait at least another year.
Posted by: Matt Haden at January 5, 2007 10:45 PM
I understand that you're busy and that there was a lot of people wanting to attend the meeting, but why didn't I even get a response to my email stating my interest in attending? I was simply left hoping I could go for about a month. You may want to consider a "Thanks for your interest, but unfortunately, we have reached our limit on invitations." type of a response to people looking forward to this type of event. I also think you should consider keeping the next event small too, because I really really want to see the station.... oh, and I still love you all, even though I wasn't invited. :(
I have to go back and look at the list next week. I should have sent you an email. I took on this task myself and it was a lot of work. I am sorry for leaving you hanging. Once I got to around 50 people invited I just stopped as I thought that would be the limit. If you would have emailed me again I would certainly have included you. A few bloggers did this in the past two weeks and I sent them an invitation. I just should have sent the rest an email explaining we reached our limit.
We will have another meeting sometime. And, you will be included.
Posted by: Beth at January 5, 2007 11:44 PM
Good mid morning to the weather team!!!!!
What a beautiful day it is outside today-looking forward to the somewhat cooler feel to tomorrow and Tuesday-then of course, we wait for the big change at the end of the week!!!!
I have looked at my last model run til Monday at the earliest and possibly Tuesday-I will drive myself nuts looking at the different precip/front timings each run shows-I still don't how you guys do it!!!
To my very untrained eye, I really think the cold air is a lock-it fits the LRC and you can see the ridge and the source area building cold air. The GFS operationals and ensembles have all been very consistent on the strength of the cold air-the diff. seem to be on the ensembles and operationals (06z GFS is a good example)(and vs the Euro) are with timing and precip-which makes perfect sense. My bet is that the cold air crashes through about 12 hours earlier than what the models are now showing-historically, I have never really seen an arctic front of this depth get hung up at Concordia, Kansas for 36 hours-they usually hang up around Joplin or so. This air mass seems much deeper and colder than one in November so it may behave diff. than last Novembers (I hope it doesn't move too fast and we wind up with a suppressed storm!!!)
That being said, the ensemles of the GFS seem very consistent (again to my untrained eye) in giving us some decent winter precip. and for sure much colder air. The details on exact timing and amounts should begin to clear up once the cold air begins to move-until then, I think I will concentrate on the two "cloppers" as Gary termed them (that is awesome!!!) for tomorrow and Tuesday and then just see where the chips have fallen!!!!
I have to say again, that the LRC has performed awesome here-weather it snows or not, (and I think it will and maybe even have a serious ice event...) I really think the cold air is a lock-that fact combined with the upper air pattern just fits the LRC this season to a T-just awesome!!!!
Have a great day-I hope you get to enjoy the weather today-I love snow, but this is just a beautiful day!!! At least we are having 1-2 nights a week drop below freezing-the East Coast can't even get that!!!
The same things happened in the models the last time through. I know you will be peaking into the models.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 6, 2007 11:02 AM