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 January 26, 2007

Welcome to winter...

If anybody was fooled that we haven't experienced much winter weather so far this season...hang on! The transition into the cold will be quick, but somewhat gradual. After a high of 52 at KCI and 53 downtown, temps will fall back into the 30s for Saturday. Expect a couple of clipper systems early next week. The systems will bring a brief 'warm-up' with highs in the 30s, then they will be followed by a shot of cold air. That is the early part of the week.

The 18Z GFS pushes a system just to our south late Tuesday into early Wednesday. I'm not sold that the storm misses us so we've kept the snow chance in the forecast. The main factor on where this storm tracks is how far south the cold air drops by Tuesday and how far north the moisture extends. So will we be cold and dry or cold with some snow? That is question one. The next question is how far south will the true arctic make it by early February. The 18Z GFS pushes the coldest air in by February 2(teens for highs?). Then there is a stretch of cold temps and maybe some flurries or light snow chances before the next possible storm. If you are hoping for snow chances your best hope at the moment is around January 30-31 and then again Feb. 4. Overall the pattern looks cold with no real signs of a warm-up to 5-10 degrees above average until maybe mid-Feb.

Looking back at KC weather records the cold air that is forecast around the start of February may be the coldest since the last week of January and first week of February of 2004. From January 25 to Feb. 7 there were 5 days with highs in the teens, 7 days with highs in the 20s, and 2 days in the low 30s. During this streak there was little to no snow on the ground!. Even more amazing is that the cold snap ended when a storm produced 8" of snow in KC. After the snow there was one cold day in the teens, then temps warmed back to the 30s.

With the recent model trends, the LRC pattern, and history...it looks like February will bring an exciting and wintry weather pattern to KC.

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at January 26, 2007 7:44 PM

Comments

Jermy:

Good evening sir!!! The winds have shifted to the NW here in Lawrence and we are now sitting at about 39-slowly dropping!!! While my kids snow fort took a serious hit today (as in only one small mound left!!!) it looks like the lakes and ponds will remain ice covered for a very good stretch this winter-good for a possible moss kill!!! Hopefully the fish maded it to deep enough water so as not to have an oxygen problem!!!

The Water Vapor staelite imagery tonight is really pretty cool-you can see both fronts heading south-one can really see the cold air setting up in the Northern Latitudes-pretty neat stuff!!!!

Next week-it looks to me like the 12Z and 18Z GFS as well as the 12Z Euro have switched back to taking the core of the cold east again-the 12Z Euro did a total flip and raises a ridge off the Baja of California and weakens the western ridge-where did that come from??-They all seem somewhat different than what they were showing this morning-a perfect example of why not to hinge on every model run and follow the LRC-now, if I could just figure out which part of the cycle we are in???? This is why I have my day job and have this as a hobby-also a great reason why I love reading this blog-to learn!!! You and the weather team are all just great to take time and share insights!!! FWIW, I do think we will have some southern energy rearing its head here next week-this has been a west of the Mississippi winter so far and the LRC says no reason to change that (at least I think I have that part correct!!!) As always, mother nature will reveal herself in her own time and in her own way!!!! I think she has shown that we will not be close to 50 for quite some time!!!! As your stats show, it has been a while!!! By the way, I loved that winter-2003-2004-cold and very good snow (and one major let down just before the 8 inch dump-models had us progged to get close to 14 inches-wound up with sleet then rain even though it was 5 degrees 16 hours before the event-that 8 inches 4 days later was quite the surprise!!!!) Well, I've rambled along again way too long-I'm going to follow the two fronts on the surface charts!! Have a great night and as always, thanks for taking the time to read-it is greatly appreciated!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

***********

Bill,

The models have a really hard to with extremes...and the looming arctic outbreak is no exception. Since the really cold air is still over a week away...Gary will have a good take on things when he returns early next week. I'm sure he's already itching to get on the blog again.

Jeremy

Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 26, 2007 8:41 PM

***************
Oh joy.... what a nice surprise the heating bills will be. Fortunately I had insulation of R49 strength blown in last year - well worth the money now, I am thinking. Even in the cold period Dec before last, our bills didn't climb over 120. We'll see how good we do this year.

Let Spring come on...enough winter (sorry folks)...Dog is ready for thunder.

Later,
Dog

***************

Dog,

I would take 90s and humid weather over anything below 25 degrees anyday. I like winter storms...but am not a fan of snow piles 2 weeks after the storm. That's just me though:)

Jeremy

Posted by: StormDog at January 26, 2007 9:00 PM

**********
Gary,Jeremy

Watch your forcast everyday. It is great!!
Leaving town for california with family on
Thursday Feb 1. Saw snow in forcast. Is
this going to be a dump or flurries or some
thing in between. What do the models say?
And of course your great expertise.

Thanks, R

**********

Richard,

It is not looking like a big storm...but maybe a couple of smaller snow producers in late Jan. and early Feb. If the cold air wins out...there may be no snow. Still a bit early to tell...just stay tuned:)

Jeremy

Posted by: Richard Jost at January 26, 2007 9:53 PM

*********
Jeremy good times it is saturday morning and 30 degrees in the northland... Bill I remember that big snow let down also hopefully we will get a 1-2 foot snow event before spring sory dog I need more snow before the thunder Jerry in the northland

*********

Jerry,

I'm sure we'll see a few snow chances in Feb. Usually March has a last gasp of winter in it too. I think the main focus will be the cold over the next week plus.

Jeremy

Posted by: Jerry at January 27, 2007 8:11 AM

***********
Hello, this question is mainly for Brett, if he is there. If not, maybe Jeff can answer this too, if he is there also. Ive have been trying to look for some information when KSHB was younger. I know the "about us" link could help, but I was looking for something more. What I mean is videos when your name was Nbc 41 KSHB, NBC 41 News. Do you know of any place that may have that type of stuff? I have been really curious about that sort of stuff. I would realy like to know. Thanks.

***********

Alden,

The keys to the weather center have been left with me for the last several days. Everyone is gone until Monday. I'd ask Gary when he returns...you can also tell him you saw his interview on TV Friday Night.

Jeremy

Posted by: Alden at January 27, 2007 10:31 AM

**********
The wind is really blowing here and there is even a few snow flakes!, I just checked NWS radar and it has very light precip showing up over the Omaha site moving south east so I think we are in for more flurries.
That arctic high is still looking strong for later next week!
Nick in(wind whipped) St. Joe!

*************

Nick,

Thanks for the update. It is turning colder here in KC too! The wind is blowing pretty good...too bad it's not the SW wind of Friday.

Jeremy

Posted by: Nick Rau at January 27, 2007 1:00 PM

 
 

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