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 January 15, 2007

What a weekend....what's next?

Good evening everyone,

We have had some reports from the bloggers come in:

Trenton: 3/4" of snow, 1 1/2" of sleet, 0.2" of ice

Clinton: 1/4" of snow, 3 inches of sleet, 1/2" of ice

Three waves of precipitation came through with this storm system. One Friday, the second part on Saturday, then the third and biggest wave on Sunday. This morning the storm put its finishing touches on display with a 2 to 3 hour period of pretty snow. This storm caused power outages in over 400,000 homes, it caused all kinds of accidents, and many people slipped, fell and got hurt. This storm was more of a bad one even for us weather enthusiasts. It was stressful waiting for the precipitation to change to snow, which happened up in northern Missouri, but not further south until this morning.

Let's look ahead to our next chance. There is a possibility of something coming in next Sunday or Monday. I have limited confidence in this, but right now the latest GFS and ECMWF have a fairly significant system moving through with rain or snow? I don't want to go into details until we see a trend in the next day or two.

I am on the air in 3 minutes. I better get ready!

Gary

Posted by at January 15, 2007 5:08 PM

Comments

******************
Gary,
Can we expect any future snow storms for eastern kansas. When the system repeats itself can we expect the same.
Thanks.
-------------------------
Jeff,

The same thing doesn't happen each time through the cycle, but there is a good chance that there will be something similar as it will still be late February or early March. The time through the cycle after this it will be mid April and then the chance of cold air being around is much less.

Gary

Posted by: Jeff at January 15, 2007 5:24 PM

*****************
I dont care if the chance is not good. As long as there IS a chance, thats good enough for me. I have taken this into thought. I'm known for crazy ideas, but if you guys want more people to watch you, heres my other idea. When you put up the billboards (if you are going to), tell them about the Action Weather Blog. They'll visit that, get information you dont have time to say on the air, and get their questions answered if they have any. Once they realize who is the best, they'll turn to you guys for not only weather, but news, sports, and traffic. I know not very many people watch you guys in general, but, if you can convince them that NBC Action News is the place for news, they'll like that. Of course, you may have to go beyond the limit to get there attention. Maybe, just maybe, if KSHB goes beond the limit, people will realize that you DO work HARD to birng KC news,weather,sports,and even traffic. KC Live could also help with this!
----------------------
Alden,

Thanks for the ideas. We actually have a growing audience and the blog could be one of the reasons. We are up around 25% in all of our newscasts this January compared to last January. So, people are catching on, as one of our commercials states.

Gary

Posted by: Alden at January 15, 2007 5:52 PM

***************
Gary,

When a major storm like this past one takes place and it doesn't behave as the primary models you use says it should have, are any of those models then updated with new algorithm's once it has been determined what indeed did happen.

And if that sort of update is done, who is in charge of authorizing the change, and are such changes done at any particular time or just when some committee or other sanctions it.

Bob
-----------------------
Bob,

Good question. The meteorological mathematical wizards are the ones working and tweaking these models all of the time with updates. The resolution continues to get better and better. But, no matter what happens we still have to make up our human minds. This storm was very tricky, but we knew in the end it would be close to changing to snow as the precipitation ended.

Gary

Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at January 15, 2007 6:26 PM

**************************************
Cannot give you specific totals on snow/sleet/ice for Bonner, but there was enough for us to spend the day outside and sled. And let me tell you it was a blast. The sleet and ice sent us speeding down the hills!! That may have been better than just getting snow.
-----------------------
Keri,

It could be better, but also more dangerous I am sure. It sounds like you had fun.

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at January 15, 2007 6:30 PM

******************
I sent you a picture of a snow fort on email as I didn't know how to send it to the blog. We keep tuned to you for the correct weather reports and hate to say not liking the COLD. But after all it is winter. Right?
-------------------
Ginger,

If you have pictures just email them to me.

Gary

Posted by: Ginger at January 15, 2007 7:25 PM

***********************
Gary -
Just wanted to let you know that I have been a long-time fan of yours! My husband and I love your enthusiasm for the weather and share in your love of snow. While there are some other stations out there with news, I always tune in to KSHB to keep me up-to-date. I think it started out as watching you, then I kept watching for Elizabeth, and so on. You guys are all great!

I also must say that I applaud you for not telling the viewers just what we want to hear (how much snow) because you don't believe in it. I think your professionalism and pure enjoyment are what make you such a wonderful meteorologist. It can't be hard being the weather guy - you get blamed if you make a call and are wrong, or you get blamed if you don't make a call at all. Well, you are the only one in town I actually believe when it comes to the weather because I know you believe in it.

Keep up the good job and we'll keep our fingers crossed for snow sometime soon!
----------------------
Courtney,

Thank you so much. Sometimes I read a negative comment or email and it just devestates me. But, then I get a message like yours and this makes my day. I think you know how much effort and time I put into getting our weathercasts on the air each night and in the blog.

Gary

Posted by: Courtney at January 15, 2007 7:51 PM

****************
Hi Gary - The Dog has his latest weather journal installment for your reading pleasure (?????):

Friday January 12 – Monday January 15th

The next system to affect us prompted a Winter Storm Watch to be issued on Thursday, January 11th, with mainly freezing rain and sleet expected. The next day, the 12th, we awoke to a cold, gray dismal dawn, and I went out to plug the holes Parker had dug under the fence with slate paving stones from the patio, robbing Peter to pay Parker, so to speak. One of these in the corner he had squeezed out the previous evening, so that when Jo Anne came home, he was nowhere to be found. “Parker, Pa-a-r-r-ker� she called as she traversed part of the neighborhood, not-so-delighted to resort to this chore after an exceptionally busy day at work. After a half hour, she decided to leave the front door open in hopes he would return and enter the house on his own. While she was on the phone with me, he slinked from around the corner of the house and guiltily walked inside.

Jo Anne ventured out to inspect my temporary anti-Parkerization of the fence where he’d been involved busily in mining efforts. Freezing drizzle, the most insidious of precarious conditions, had finely coated our deck with a slippery sheen of ice, and Jo Anne, descending the stairs, had no sooner said “It’s really slick out here�, than her legs slipped and she stretched a foot backward - nice...

By 1400, when I left for work, the roads were becoming coated in icy grains of sleet - almost like white corn-snow, with sleet mixing with the freezing rain. Roads were not looking great, but for the most part, if I stayed below 40 mph, I did fine, not intending to imitate a red-neck in a big pick-up he-manning his way through the ice, only to wind up in a ditch.


By 1700, the sleet fell at a persistent and moderate pace, pecking against the window, propelled by a stiff north wind, and with temperatures around 16F, it was not an evening to enjoy the pleasures of the patio. We were now under a Winter Storm Warning, mainly for freezing rain and sleet, which was through Sunday evening.

The forecast discussion mentioned that “an area of strong q-vector convergence...is forecast to move across northwest and northern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations of upwards of 4 inches are suggested.� That would, I thought, bring some pleasure to northland residents pining for snow, but would the sleet actually yield its prominent place in the precipitation to the more delicate snowflakes?

Saturday brought only gray skies as gloomy and cold as a North Pole
grave, and nothing falling from the leadenness that I could discern. There was a strong north wind - that I could tell from neighbor’s chimney smoke streaming towards Highway 40 and southward.

Only a light freezing drizzle fell during the day, which was not exciting in the least... Glancing at radar at 1500, I began to question whether a 50% chance of precipitation wasn’t way out in left field, beyond the bleachers.

On Sunday, the 13th, the “main event� occurred, but despite moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain in places across Kansas City around 1500, this last wave moved quickly, and by 1530, the arc of heaviest freezing rain and sleet was past us. A nice icy sheen lay upon the Ranger Station drive in it’s wake, and so did not a few accidents! One of our new Rangers totaled his pick-up truck on one of the Interstates, and wasn’t able to make it in to work. In fact, he sustained some form of injury from the semi plowing into his vehicle, which, I supposed, was fortunate, only in that he hadn’t left this world for the next in the incident!

The drive home was a bit dicey, as slushy sleet overtopped a sheet of ice, although the roads had been treated, and there was a lot of slushy mix covering. Still, as one couldn’t be sure of where the wet and the ice lay, I crawled home at 25-30 mph, not wanting to hug a tree roadside!

At the end, a quarter-inch of glaze was added to our totals, with the precipitation for the three days adding up to a mess in the rain-gauge, once melted. Frigid temperatures followed on Monday, the 15th – 16F or so for highs as well as early morning snow-flurries that gave us a dusting of snow over the ice. Trees at sunset colored brilliantly in golden light, icy prism-fingers of their branches making a frosty-filigree to day’s end. For drivers and walkers, nasty, dangerous weather indeed.
------------------------------
Storm Dog,

Thanks for the memories!

Gary

Posted by: StormDog at January 15, 2007 7:55 PM

******************
Wow..with more bloggers, more pressure to be correct. Hard enough for the weather team, but I will have to raise my game! LOL.

This upcoming weekend..I saw the GFS hint at another SW wave that fizzles out on the way here...this would be the drizzle storm of Dec. Any new trends that make this exciting?

Keep plugging the blog..you all are doing a good job...you have no idea how big this can get. At some point you may need a full time moderator.... ;-)
-------------------
Scott,

I know, it may get tough. But, I actually love this. This is like one of those weather games I played as a kid, but this is for real. Can you imagine if we have a really exciting weather pattern. I give this one a B- for excitement.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at January 15, 2007 8:00 PM

*************
Thanks to all of you in the weather department at KSHB for the updates this weekend. We were in San Francisco and your blog was a great source for what was happening in the weather back here in KC. Thanks for going the extra mile!
--------------------------
Al,

It is amazing when here of ways the blog is used! Keep spreading the word to the viewers in Kansas City.

Gary

Posted by: Al at January 15, 2007 8:23 PM

**************
I wanted to say how much I enjoy reading the blog and all your comments. Between your blog and calling Dad I can keep up with all the weather happenings in Northwest Missouri. It's hard to believe that areas around and south of St. Joseph have yet to see their first inch of snow.

Here in Houston forecasters are calling for an ice storm (temperatures and amounts of precipitaton will be a close call). It has been almost 10 years since the last major ice storm hit Houston.

I miss your weather forecasts at night and waking up and watching the 41 news team and Brett Anthony in the morning. Hopefully when and if I get the opportunity to move back to Missouri we will have a snowy winter like the ones I remembered when growing up.

Thank you for all your hardwork, your responsiveness to bloggers and the effort you put forth in making the forecasts accurate, informative and entertaining.

I can't wait to visit home again and watch the 41 evening news and catch your latest forecast. I can watch the ones on the internet, but live forecasts just seem better!
--------------------
Kurt,

Thanks!

Gary

Posted by: Kurt at January 15, 2007 9:21 PM

Gary-Hope you are ok after the fall this morning? I wanted to tell you my dad in Springfield finally got power this morning and he will never doubt you again. He also said the weather stations there are saying maybe a storm for them this weekend. I told him I would see what Gary says and get back to him. LOL. Thanks for all your hard work last week.

Posted by: Ann at January 15, 2007 9:22 PM

Gary, looks like we dodged a huge bullet this weekend, I got a bit concerned yesterday when we were out to eat and someone said it was "raining", I was like, that is no rain, that is freezing rain. But looking at devastation down south, and remembering how things were a few years ago. We were lucky. Thanks for the hard work. I was wondering, how has this blog effected your forecasting, or your job as a whole. Do you find yourself more comfortable knowing your viewers on more of a personal level, or does it make you more nervous. I saw your post above where you said you get devastated by negative feedback and I just hope that doesn't someone force you guys to be less open to us. With this blog I feel like we got an inside source to the best information in town. Thanks

Posted by: Dave C. at January 15, 2007 10:15 PM

Gary, you need to talk to the web folks and find out if there is a way we can embed pics into our blog entries. It would make things so much easier..even if you don't host the pics, we can reference them from other sites and just use the src...

Too greedy? I am sure Bill and I could make it worth while in using pics to supplement forecasts/analysis... Food for thought. [Last time I had a food for thought, I recommended a blogger meeting?]

Posted by: Scott at January 15, 2007 10:54 PM

Gary,
If you could please put out a reminder to the bloggers, et al about clearing off their cars (tops included) from all of the ice and snow. It's not much, but at 65-70 mph when that ice comes back and hits your windshield or if you try to avoid a flying object coming at you, it's enough to cause a serious accident. Several states have laws that allow up to four hours after a storm and then it must be cleared from the car.
If you have a van or SUV and can't reach the top, go through a car wash. Nobody would drive a car with bad brakes because it would cause an accident, so why drive with snow on the top that could cause an accident?
Unfortunately, most people don't think the snow will break off from the car because it's so cold, but the heat of the inside of the car will break it down.

Posted by: Matt P at January 16, 2007 12:59 AM

************
Dog here: Melted .71 inches in the gauge, one of those one inch tube with larger overflow tube surrounding, so it is usually fairly accurate, although I don't know how good it does with this....stuff. Still, we had quite a bit of precip overall, so I presume over a half inch isn't "out of the pail" (pardon the pun), so to speak.

Dog (Blue Springs south of I-70, N of Hwy 40.)
---------------
Storm Dog,

A nice start to the year. I think we will be much better on moisture this year. I had a little less than you.

Gary

Posted by: StormDog at January 16, 2007 12:39 PM

 
 

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