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NAM model this afternoon

Good afternoon,

It is 74 degrees on our Olathe weather now site. WOW! The warm front is stalling just north or downtown. We are set up for severe thunderstorms. How severe? Hail is the main threat tonight.

The latest NAM has a lot of rain, thunderstorms and then still snow on the back side tomorrow morning. The other models take the snow to our north. One thing for certain this is a very strong and fast moving storm.

Hey bloggers, if you experience any hail or severe weather tonight please blog your reports to us. We will be checking the blog closely.

Gary

Posted by at 2:30 PM | Comments (100)

Severe weather threat increases

Good afternoon everyone,

There is a chance of a severe weather outbreak overnight. We rarely have overnight severe weather outbreaks but everything is pointing towards this happening between 8 PM and 4 AM.

We have been talking about this very potent storm system and now it is moving a bit faster. Warm moist air is being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm front is lining up near Kansas City. A very strong surface low will be intensifying as it moves along the warm front and passes by early on Thursday morning. Along the surface low track and south of it thunderstorms will be likely. Very large hail and possibly tornadoes will threaten our area tonight. We will have our weather team and all of our sophisticated equipment ready to keep you advised on each thunderstorm as it passes through.

Every storm is different. Will this be a tornado producing storm system or just severe hail. Or, just ordinary thunderstorms. Obviously we are thinking the severe variety is likely.

Click to enlarge (Hail threat)

Click to enlarge (Tornado threat)

Above, you can see the latest hail and tornado threats. These are quite high for February!

Gary

Posted by at 11:16 AM | Comments (16)

Other models

Another quick update......

The GFS has a faster solution. If it is correct the chance of snow is much slimmer and mainly across extreme northwest Missouri. I favor this solution at this moment. Look below on my thoughts after looking at the NAM. The GFS has been more reliable so I lean in its direction. We still have the potential for severe weather, and if the GFS is correct the storm is a bit faster and could affect us during the evening.

Gary

Posted by at 9:45 AM | Comments (6)

Thunderstorms & Snow

Good morning everyone,

Brett and I were just discussing the latest data and it is impressive. This is a fast moving and powerful storm. So what does it mean for us?

The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for northwest Missouri north of St. Joseph for significant accumulations of snow. Thundestorms are also likely overnight tonight with the potential for a few of these thunderstorms becoming severe. Large hail about golf ball size would be the main threat from some of the stronger thunderstorms. This is an amazing storm in many respects. First of all the surface low is powerful. The pressure will likely be down to around 29.10" early Thursday morning. As the surface low passes a band of significant snow will likely have formed over central and north central Kansas. This will very likely swing east across the state line by mid morning Thursday. How it holds together and how long it lasts will decide if we see any of the accumulating snow. The latest NAM does show the potential for 1 inch on the south side of Kansas City to 3 inches on the north side with nearly 5 inches near St. Joseph or just north of there. The wind will be blowing at around 45 mph so near blizzard conditions could develop across northwest Missouri near Maryville.

Below you can see three maps. The first one is the NAM 24 hour forecast showing the strong surface low strengthening as it passes early Thursday morning. The second map is the precipitation type forecast for noon Thursday. And, the third is the forecast precipitation overnight showing the thunderstorms between midnight and 6 AM.

Strong surface low valid 6 AM Thursday

NAM Forecast Precipitation Type noon Thursday

Precipitation forecast 12 hours ending 6 AM

We will see what the other models do this morning. The GFS has been a bit stronger and further south on each run. A little further south and we will certainly see snow on Thursday. But, this doesn't mean it will happen. We are right on the edge and if you live further south, like on a line from Pleasant Hill to Paola southward then you could end up with no snow at all. Unless this goes further south of course.

The severe weather threat is there and this is another part of this storm we will be monitoring and updating on our newscasts tonight. Brett will have an update on the cutins during the next hour and then during KC LIVE at 10 AM.

Gary

Posted by at 8:28 AM | Comments (3)

Breezy goes to a school.....Big Storm?

Happy Tuesday everyone,

Wow, another interesting storm is likely to affect the region beginning Wednesday morning. Moisture will be surging our way as a strong surface low is generated. Before I get to this I am very proud of my dog Breezy, 1 year old, and Stormy who went to Chouteau Elementary yesterday. Breezy came out and did her tricks with Stormy. Breezy has been in training and she is really becoming a well disciplined dog. The 7th annual Kansas City Pet Telethon is on channel 38 Sunday night. More on this later. Please watch and call in if you get the chance. It is on from 6:30 to 9:30 PM. Here are some pictures:

Click to enlarge (Breezy is the bigger dog)

Click to enlarge (Breezy & Stormy with 5th graders)

Click to enlarge (Breezy and Stormy last week with 2nd Graders)

Now, back to the weather. The latest model runs this morning have a rather vigorous storm developing near the Kansas/Missouri state line early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms and snow are again possible. The red X on the 500 mb map is the vort max, or the maximum area of vorticity. If vorticity is increasing over a local area then this causes lift in the atmosphere. So as the X approaches the lift is maximized and then it is the exact opposite as it passes by. If this is strong and it is cold enough we could see snow out of this storm on Thursday morning. This is really intensifying as it goes by so it complicates things quite a bit.

GFS 500mb valid Thursday morning

GFS Surface Thursday morning

The above two maps show this rapidly moving storm. It will whip by us very fast on Thursday morning. This doesn't mean it has to miss us, in fact as is those of you in northwest Missouri could get a quick 4 inches of snow, and any further south and watch out for the rest of us. And, thunderstorms could develop as the surface low pulls the cold front through.

So, it is another storm system. We will go into more detail later tonight and Wednesday. We will get to most of your questions later on. Have a great day. I just had a fantastic workout and now it is time to get ready for work.

Gary

Posted by at 10:25 AM | Comments (33)

Tuesday Morning Update

Good Morning,
I hope everyone is off to a good start this week. Please vote in today's primary elections, the weather won't be a factor in keeping people away from the polls. The average high today is 47, we should be right there for a high. Tomorrow night into Thursday morning we are under a slight risk of severe weather. While again, 99-percent of the area will be safe there is a slim chance for a strong thunderstorm with wind to develop. Here is a link to the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Have a great day, enjoy the warm up tomorrow. We need this storm to go a lot farther south if we want snow.

Have a great day,
Brett

Posted by at 6:38 AM | Comments (2)

A look back and a look ahead

Good morning,

The weekend produced some beneficial rainfall, some snow, and one severe weather event. Yes, I am very surprised with the tornado that occurred near Holden in Johnson county, Missouri. It was 48 to 50 degrees when the tornado happened. We thought there would be a small chance of severe weather and in the end 99% of the area was severe weather free. It is just fascinating that this happened with such cool conditions. And, there was no warm air anywhere, but we knew there were many other ingredients to support this event. As you can see in the last entry the thunderstorm developed a strong mesocyclone and produced the small tornado.

So, what is next? A strong storm is now forecast to develop Wednesday into Thursday. Last night's GFS run had a snowstorm here. There is a chance of this happening on Thursday but most models insist that it will be Iowa again. I don't know about you, but I would love to have one more snowstorm before spring settles in. This next storm may go in the same spot as the last one, we'll see.

Look below at the latest NAM forecast. Yes, that is another very strong surface low developing to our southwest. The pressure is down to 987 milibars, 29.14". Wow! Low level moisture will be pulled into the system. Where will this surface low track? Will an upper low form? Remember the last storm had a very well defined upper level low form but it tracked too far north for much snow to fall. We will have these questions answered soon.

Click to enlarge (surface forecast for Wednesday evening)

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:26 AM | Comments (21)

Tornado Specifics

What a change in the air today! Highs in the 30s and a biting northwest wind of 15-30+mph! Below is the National Weather Service Summary on the Holden Tornado. The first tornado in Missouri history to be classified using the new Enhanced Fujita scale!

**National Weather Service Meteorologists along with the Johnson County Emergency manager conducted a survey of storm damage from Saturday afternoon’s tornado south of Holden near Medford. The map below shows the tornado touched down just north of 2 Highway, and tracked to the north-northeast about two miles before lifting just east of Medford. The tornado damaged two homes, a business, and several farm buildings. Shown in the photos below are a modular home which had it’s carport torn from its south wall, a barn with it’s roof blown off, and a business with its overhead door, roof, and one wall blown off. At its peak, the tornado was rated as an EF1 with top wind speeds of about 90 to 95 mph.**

Click to enlarge (tornado path)

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Posted by jnelson at 1:52 PM | Comments (5)

Brief Tornado

A tornado warning was issued for Johnson County, MO at 5:07pm on Saturday and expired at 5:30pm. When the warning was first issued there was a couplet or signature of rotation on LIVE ESP, after about 5-10 minutes this rotation weakened. Some damage was reported near/in Holden. If the damage was a result of a tornado it will be the first in Missouri to be classified under the new Enhanced Fujita Scale!

**Update from the NWS**

Just after 4:30 PM, an isolated supercell thunderstorm developed over eastern Cass county and tracked northeast toward Johnson county. As this storm crossed a warm front draped across the area, an initial radar signature of strong winds estimated at 50 mph began to organize into an area of strong rotation with the storm.

Shortly after, a tornado was spotted by Johnson County Emergency Management, and then by an off duty National Weather Service Employee. Early reports indicate that this tornado produce structural damage to homes and businesses in and around Holden. A National Weather Service survey team will be dispatched Sunday morning to determine the size and intensity of this tornado.

Posted by jnelson at 5:48 PM | Comments (19)

Thunderstorms have weakened

The tornado watch that is in effect until 6 PM will likely be cancelled soon. As expected the thunderstorms moved into the cooler air over our region and rapidly weakened. There was only one or two warnings and not in our viewing area. We thought there was only a very slight chance today and in the end the cooler air won out. So, there is still a small threat of severe weather but it is turning into a band of showers and thunderstorms that will mostly stay below severe limits. Some areas could see some heavy downpours in the next few hours.

After midnight the snow potential will increase as the storm passes by to our east. This is one powerful storm. Look at the storm below at 2 PM this afternoon. As the center passes by to our east the colder air will wrap in and we could end up with snow after midnight. The best chance of accumulations will be up north. This is what we will now concentrate on. Have a great Saturday evening.

Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 1:16 PM | Comments (22)

8 AM Saturday morning update

Good morning everyone,

I know there has been a lot of buzz about severe weather, but you know our take on it has been consistent throughout and we continue to maintain that any threat of severe weather is extremely small. This morning there wasn't a watch or a warning in our entire viewing area. Later on today there could be an area from Wichita to Emporia and then south into Oklahoma that has to be watched closely for some clearing this afternoon and the slight chance of thunderstorm development that could become severe, but for most of us the threat is very small.

Below you can see this mornings RUC model which predicts low clouds fairly well. This shows us completely overcast all day. There is no chance of destablization in our viewing area if this is correct.

Click to enlarge

The next map shows the 06z data from the NAM model valid this evening. Notice the upper low is even further south, and is another reason the severe weather threat is low. If this upper low tracks into southwest Missouri then it will be far enough south to pull the accumulating snows into the Kansas City area. This is a close call and we will have to watch the upper low spinning on the satellite pictures today. So, don't rule out a snowstorm yet, but it may still hug the Iowa/Missouri border with only light snow further south.

Click to enlarge (NAM forecast 500 mb valid 6 PM tonight)

The bottom line, the severe weather threat is extremely small. This first band of rain is about to end. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms will likely still develop later today and we will monitor them closely. Jeremy Nelson is in the rest of the day and he will answer your questions.

Gary

Posted by at 7:45 AM | Comments (23)

Powerful storm is developing

Good Friday evening everyone,

This storm that is now developing is powerful. The pressure is forecast to drop to near 29.05" over Kansas Saturday afternoon, which is about as strong as a category one hurricane. This is impressive. I have a few maps for you to digest on the new NAM model tonight. Look below.

Click to enlarge (this is the 500 mb forecast for noon Saturday, the upper low is in northern Oklahoma)

The above map shows the intense upper level low fully developed just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The below map shows the surface during by evening with an occluded low. The low level warm moist air is about to be shut off from the system and will limit severe potential during the afternoon. We still have to watch this closely as this storm is very strong. Will we have severe weather? Well the Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk and I would lean towards the slight part of that slight risk. I am not completely ruling it out though so as I said let's watch it closely.

Click to enlarge (surface forecast valid 6 PM Saturday)

Below you can see the dewpoint forecast by the NAM, which still could be a bit off. But this is such a cold core system and it is late February, so I won't be surprised if the higher dewpoints are lost during the afternoon. Look how wrapped up it is.

Click to enlarge (Surface dewpoints forecast for Saturday afternoon)

One last map tonight. This is the 850 mb forecast map valid Saturday night at midnight. A powerful low at this level (around 5,000 feet up) is near Kansas City. As soon as it passes I am expecting 50 mph wind gusts from the north and some snow. We still need this storm to track a bit further south to have accumulations in Kansas City, but closer to the Iowa border could have blizzard conditions early Sunday morning.

Click to enlarge (850 mb forecast midnight Saturday night....wow)

The NBC Action Weather Team will continue to track this storm over the weekend. This is unique, right on schedule as we thougt there would be a big storm around the 25th. Amazing! The weather pattern continues to be somewhat fascinating after this passes. As we move into March some strange things may continue to happen. Have a great weekend. This storm will have our attention for the next 36 hours!

Gary Lezak, Jeff Penner, Jeremy Nelson, and Brett Anthony

Posted by at 8:19 PM | Comments (30)

New warning and watch tool....need input

Hello everyone,

I am about to describe this storm on the 6 PM newscast. We have watches everywhere to our west. I am going to use ESP LIVE to show it. Please give us some instant feedback on if it works for you. Of course, this is if I use it correctly. And, imagine it over our area as well.

Feedback please.......I will have a blog about this storm around 8:30 this evening.

Gary

Posted by at 5:05 PM | Comments (19)

Few Thunderstorms

LIVE ESP continues to show isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Expect the showers and storms to hang around until mid afternoon before exiting the area. The storms are developing on the leading edge of warmer temperatures and increasing moisture. The storms will stay below severe levels. Rainfall totals may be up to one or two tenths of an inch of rain if you get caught directly under a thundershower...otherwise most totals will be a few hundredths of an inch.

Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees in most locations today with breezy conditions.

**Hopefully everyone caught Gary's forecasts yesterday at 5, 6, & 10pm because he was mentioning the possibility of these showers today. He had a 50% chance of rain in the forecast for this afternoon.**

Posted by jnelson at 12:27 PM | Comments (15)

10 AM Friday Forecast

Good morning everyone,

Wow! We have a powerful storm taking shape over the plains. We will very likely see rain, thunderstorms, a lot of wind, and snow before it is over. The National Weather Service has been talking about the severe weather potential. We think there is a very slim chance, but most likely the serious threat will be well south of here. Our weather team will continue to analyze this situation closely as we move into Saturday.

Below you will see the upper low forecast to be near Kansas City at midnight Saturday night. This is the forecast for 500 mb which is about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. The map below is the surface forecast, in other words what is forecast right at the ground. It shows the surface low right underneath the upper low.

Click to enlarge (GFS 500 mb flow forecast for Midnight Saturday night)

Click to enlarge (GFS surface low forecast for midnight Saturday night)

As soon as the upper low and surface low pass by the wind will shift to the north and moisture will surge south around the storm. It will be cold enough to snow immediately after the passage of the system and we should still have enough lift for snow. In fact, northwest Missouri still has a chance of significant accumulations that could track across northern Missouri. Iowa could have a blizzard. If this storm tracks just a bit further south the snow could be more significant down to Kansas City. We still think an inch of snow could fall on Sunday morning. We will update you on these trends this evening.

The latest data has about a 4 to 6 hour period of heavy rain with some thunderstorms during the morning. The latest data predicts 1/2" to 1" may fall. Then, the dry slot tries to get here, but the latest models sort of fill in the dry slot over us during the day and if this happens then new bands of rain could form. I still don't see much if any severe thunderstorm activity. There is just no low level thermodynamics (warm moist air, etc.) to provide enough fuel for this. But, we will still watch it closely. A very exciting storm to say the least. I just wish it would track a bit further south.

Have a great day. More later on. We will try to get to your questions!

Gary

Posted by at 9:51 AM | Comments (20)

Overnight Data

Good morning,
As Gary mentioned in the late evening update, there is a chance to get dry-slotted Saturday, thereby lowering rain totals. Below is the 850mb (5000 feet) map for Saturday afternoon. The areas of dark are indicative of lots of moisture that moves through Saturday morning. Saturday morning we could receive a half inch to inch of rain. The heavy rain moves out early Saturday afternoon and as you can see by looking at this map, (valid at noon tomorrow), There may be some light scattered showers or no rain at all, and there may be some glimpses of sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Then tomorrow evening another band of light to moderate rain could move through the metro.
Click to Enlarge.


Sunday morning, Rain changes to snow. (Click to enlarge)

It looks like there could be a period of steady snow, perhaps heavy but it doesn't last long. Still this period of snow could produce a trace to 2 inches of snow. At least that's my feeling right now, we need to watch this closely. New Data comes out later this morning and Gary will likely blog about any changes that show up and of course have a detailed forecast tonight at 5 & 6pm.

Have a great weekend, this will be a fun storm to watch evolve move overhead (Barometers may drop to around 29.26) and move out.

Brett

Posted by at 6:47 AM | Comments (9)

Thursday evening update

Good evening everyone,

A complex storm is approaching. The new data has this storm further north, just a little bit. This has the potential to lower precipitation totals on Saturday as the dry slot would come faster. But, it is only Thursday night, so let's see how it looks on Friday.

Gary

Posted by at 9:59 PM | Comments (6)

Thursday afternoon update

Good afternoon everyone,

We will have a more detailed update this evening. But, a quick look at the models this afternoon shows the upper low likely tracking right near Kansas City Saturday night. For it to snow here significantly the upper low must track about 100 miles farther south. And, it still may. For those of you interested in severe weather the chance is extremely small. It is just too cool.

We are working on our special graphics for the newscasts! Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 3:17 PM | Comments (16)

Wednesday evening data

Good evening everyone,

The NAM has come out and the upper low is even further south. I am still not sold on this, but it still did trend south. The November upper low went further south as well, but there was colder air in place. We will monitor this closely, because a south solution will provide a better chance of snow, and a lesser chance of any severe thunderstorms. Let's see what the GFS does tonight and Thursday?

Below is the latest NAM 500 mb flow and surface. Notice this is becoming a vertically stacked system, which means the surface low is close to the upper low. Usually it would be well out to the east of the upper low. Wow, what a storm! What a year! What a weather pattern that continues to cycle. We thought this was going to be a potentially great year of weather back when the pattern set up in October. And, now we are enjoying it. Are you enjoying it?

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Saturday night)

Click to enlarge (NAM Surface valid Saturday night)

Posted by at 8:54 PM | Comments (26)

Morning model trends

Good morning everyone,

A rather powerful storm is forecast to develop and affect our weekend weather. We will very likely see rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, maybe some hail, and possibly some snow as the storm moves by. Below are the first two models that have come out this morning. The NAM forecasts the upper low to be near Wichita, KS Saturday at noon. The GFS forecasts the upper low to be just north of the NAM near Salina. This is a very small difference, but a HUGE difference in what we could experience. If the upper low tracks south of Kansas City then a snowstorm could be produced but ONLY if it tracks south of us. Last nights GFS tracked it south of us and this mornings NAM does. We just have to track this situation closely and see where we think it is going to go. We may not know until Saturday. This is just how it works because the storm doesn't really close off until Saturday morning. Look below:

Click to enlarge (NAM noon Saturday)

Click to enlarge (GFS noon Saturday)

As the storm moves across the west coast Thursday into Friday warm moist air will be drawn northward. This is going to create a major forecast challenge on Friday. Will it be rainy with thunderstorms and only 48 degrees Friday or will it be 60 like our current forecast states? We will get a feel for this later today. Then widespread rain and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday into Saturday evening. If the storm tracks north of us then we will get a major dry slot in here. We will never go in the dry slot if the storm tracks south of us in the upper levels. The surface low will be quite strong as well and we will talk about this later today. Will there be any severe thunderstorms? More later.

Gary

Posted by at 11:08 AM | Comments (19)

Are you ready for more winter?

Good evening everyone,

The models are trending in the direction that fits with the LRC. We are suppose to have a significant storm system that comes through in three or four parts, then cold air blasts in (this is what happened at the end of November and again around January 12th). The models have been holding the cold air in northern Canada, until today. All of a sudden the GFS, ECMWF, and others are not only bringing colder air in, but apparantly it is Arctic. In December the Arctic came in at the end of November and lasted for about 10 days. I think this is going to happen again and with the time of the year being March we could end up with a major snowstorm near by. This is all evolving over the past 24 hours on the models. An interesting twist but still in the same pattern. In March it can get wild, and I think it is about to.

We are still tracking the lead storm system that is due in on Saturday. There are still uncertainties with this storm. Will it close off and become a slow moving storm, or will it just be ejected through fast as the upstream flow is rapidly strengthening and forming into the second storm system. It is beginning to appear that we will have a series of storm systems affecting us during the next 10 to 12 days. Are you all up for this?

Gary

Posted by at 4:18 PM | Comments (36)

Hawaiian Shirt Day

Good morning everyone,
Dust off those loud, tacky Hawaiian shirts. Thursday is Hawaiian shirt day in Kansas City.


The kids at Donna Lindahl's farm are already sporting theirs.
Why not! It'll be in the 50s, the sun will shine brightly and it should just be a great day. Why not Friday you ask when it could be 65 degrees. Because it looks like it clouds over Friday afternoon and it may rain in advance of that huge Weekend Storm System.
A pretty impressive storm system Saturday with the potential for a lot of rain. Below is the GFS's take on possible rain Saturday.
Click to Enlarge


It looks like 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible. It should also be pretty windy but we are still doubting the warm air makes it this far north so severe weather should be well south of Kansas City.

Have a great day, Let me know what you think about that kid in the shirt and the weekend storm.

Brett

Posted by at 8:00 AM | Comments (14)

A big storm on the 24th-25th

Click to enlarge (GFS 500 mb forecast Saturday night)

Click to enlarge (GFS surface valid Satuday night)

Good afternoon everyone,

It has finally warmed up into the 50s. It feels good outside. It may get even warmer Thursday and Friday ahead of a powerful storm. The above maps show the very strong storm forecast to be over Kansas on Saturday. It is too early to speculate what it will mean for our weather. Since there is no Arctic air near by it would likely track further north this time. And, if we can get it to slow down just a bit then we could have widespread thunderstorms ahead of the system. As is right now it would be just a very quick band and then dry slot. Please don't ask about the details as this is still 5 days away and will likely look differently as it approaches. For us to see snow out of this first system it would have to track further south across Oklahoma, like the one on November 30th did. So, it is still early and the track will likely change. After this moves by there could be some chances for snow next week. There is a second system that drops into the Rockies, which is more like that November 30th storm. But, will it be absorbed by the strength of the lead storm? Or, will it dominate and the lead storm be weaker? This is something to pay close attention to over the next few days.

Gary

Posted by at 12:18 PM | Comments (18)

A Taste of Spring!

Hopefully everyone had a chance to enjoy at least a few minutes outside today. Sunshine and highs near 50 made for a very nice winter day. There was still enough snow around to make snow creatures and maybe do a little sledding. With that said, the snow will be virtually gone over the next 1-2 days! Highs will be well into the 50s on Monday, and near 50 on Tuesday. A weak front will give the region a chance of a few rain showers Tuesday morning, but already by mid afternoon some sunshine should return to the area.

After the small dip in temps on Tuesday, the real warm-up will begin on Wednesday with highs going from the upper 50s on Wednesday to the mid 60s by Friday. The record high for Friday is 73 degrees set in 1982. The warmer weather is all ahead of an intense area of low pressure that will impact the area next weekend.

If you follow the blog this storm is right on schedule with our 42 day weather cycle(LRC). The previous two versions of this storm produced high temperatures well above average ahead of the storm. Prior to the November 30 storm the high temperature reached 69 degrees on the 28th. Then the cycle repeated and so did the warmth ahead of the January 12-14 storm with a high of 60 degrees on January 11. This time around looks no different with forecast highs in the 60s for Friday.

Now to the storm. I'll look back and see when the first time Gary mentioned February 25 as a day to mark down or watch for a significant storm in the Midwest/Plains, but I know we were discussing this around the forecast center already in December when the pattern was revealed. The position of the storm and exact timing will likley change many times from now until next weekend. But right now this is shaping up to be a classic early spring storm with the POSSIBILITY of a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the warm sector of the storm and a snowstorm or blizzard on the backside of the low where colder air is in place.

I don't want to speculate too much about this yet...but IF the current trends continue this storm would provide us with much more rain than snow. If you have questions regarding Gary's theory in relation to the upcoming storm you may want to save them until he blogs tomorrow.

I hope everyone enjoyed the nice day and if you are off for President's Day tomorrow it should be even better!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 5:23 PM | Comments (14)

40s, 50s, & 60s!

After a 37 day cold spell I think even the most die hard fans of winter will welcome a break this week. Temperatures should be in the 40s, 50s, and 60s for highs this entire week. The best chance of seeing a few 60s would be either Thursday or Friday...I'm thinking more likely on Friday.

Here's a look at the updated numbers for this winter and the cold spell. These numbers represent departure from average.

December 1 to Feb. 17: +1.0 F

December 22 to Feb. 17: Right at average!

January 12 to Feb. 17: -7.2 (37 day cold spell)

February 1-17: -11.6

Our February departure from average will moderate a bit this week with above average temps in the forecast once we get to Monday. The season snow total at KCI now stands at 10.0" including yesterday's snow.

Now a quick word about late this week and next weekend. The 18Z models continue to show the storm around the 25th. We've been talking about this for a long time and will continue to update you on our thinking as we head into the upcoming week.

I am very confident that highs will reach the 60s around Thursday or Friday...by using the LRC. Looking back at the previous two versions of this upcoming storm have produced a 70 degree temp in late November and a 60 degree temp in January. We may be somewhere in between this time around. If clouds would enter the forecast or fog develops one of those nights the 60s may not be realized. But right now I see now reason not to forecast highs in the 60s based on the current models, and more so on the performance of the LRC with the previous two versions of the upcoming potential storm.

Posted by jnelson at 8:18 PM | Comments (14)

Gusty Winds & Some Sunshine

The cold front associated with the Alberta Clipper blew thru the area overnight. Temperatures soared to 37 degrees at KCI around 11pm last night, and then quickly fell into the lower 20s behind the front. The biggest change was probably the wind! Winds turned to the northwest and gusted over 40mph. Here is a look a some of the peak wind gust overnight.

KCI: 45 mph Lawrence: 44 mph St. Joseph: 38 mph Gardner: 39 mph

The strong winds caused quite a bit of blowing and drifting snow in open areas. The winds will gradually ease up today and should be around 10 mph by late this afternoon.

There has already been some sunshine this morning and that will likely be mixed with some clouds this afternoon. The clearing line(completely clear) is in central Kansas. That will work into the region and should arrive by late today or this evening. Skies will be clear tonight and expect one more cold night...then warmer temps...finally! The warm-up will be the focus on NBC Action News today at 5 & 10pm.

I'll post an updated look at our cold snap later today. Have a great weekend!

Posted by jnelson at 9:53 AM | Comments (11)

Heavy snow and blowing snow

Good Saturday morning,

It is just after midnight and heavy snow is moving in. 1 inch is still likely but the wind will become the big factor over the next 6 hours. We are in a snow and blowing snow advisory through the early morning hours. Below you can see LIVE ESP as of around 12:20 AM. The light blue areas are rather significant snow. The winds are picking up at nearly 50 mph. Jeremy will be tracking this system leaving us in the morning with the last day of the cold wave finally here.

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Posted by at 12:19 AM | Comments (6)

What a weather day!

And, it isn't over yet......

Good evening bloggers. Thank you for all of the kind comments. We deserve to take some heat today as we really didn't predict this snow event until around 2 PM. But, we were anticipating snow tonight and it is on the way.

Let's take a look......What an amazing day: 3 below zero to start the day, Snow moves in unexpectedly this afternoon right during rush hour and produces 1 inch, SNOW and blowing snow may be on the way overnight, and also a warm up ahead of the snow. Then the bigger warm up next week.

Click to enlarge (Midnight tonight, a nice Alberta Clipper, a bit further west)

Click to enlarge (Omaha Nexrad at 8 PM)

Above,

You can see the Alberta clipper moving into northern Missouri at midnight near Trenton. And, in the blue is wind forecasted to go above 30 mph. Right now 52 mph are reported in Nebraska with heavy snow. Out ahead of the surface low is a nice warm up which is happening right now. Everyone should be above freezing by around 10 to 11 PM then drop back to near 20 by morning.

Wow, that is enough, but look at NEXRAD from Omaha. Snow is rapidly moving our way and another 1 inch is very possibly between midnight and 6 AM, plus if you add in the wind we should have blowing snow in the morning. What a finale!!!!!

Have a great night! Be careful. Enjoy the storm. We will look ahead next week.

Posted by at 8:15 PM | Comments (10)

Oh my.....A surprise, but look at last nights blog

Good evening,

Heavy snow will be ending from west to east by 7 PM.

You know how I can get emotional. The calls coming in saying that we have been wrong all year are about to drive me crazy, this one lady just called telling me that I haven't gotten one forecast right all year and everyone else has. I know she's wrong, but man it is tough to listen to. O.K. this is a surprise, but how much of one really. Look below, from last nights entry:

Just northeast of the center could be a band of 3 to 5 inch snows. If this just digs a bit harder on Friday morning as it enters the plains the forecast could change fast. We could be in it. But, at this moment I very much doubt it. This is what makes weather so fascinating though. A slight difference in the track of a storm could mean a huge difference in what we experience.

So, I am surprised. But, I did say this might happen today. There is no doubt, and this shows, from the calls coming in, that you are only as good as your last forecast.

O.K. I am over it now. I will be fine. Don't worry about this, just be careful and enjoy the surprise snowstorm.

And.........Another band of snow is developing to our north. This is the one we expected for later tonight. We will be tracking this tonight at 10 PM.
Gary

Posted by at 4:38 PM | Comments (72)

Heavy snow

Good Friday evening,

This snow will last two or three hours. One to a quick two inches could fall and cause major travel problems. There is a good chance of another band of snow after midnight.

Thank you for all of your reports. Please be careful this evening.

Gary

Posted by at 4:13 PM | Comments (10)

Area of wintery precipitation is moving our way

Good afternoon,

An area of snow/sleet/freezing rain is moving our way. The snow cover is actually affecting this afternoon's weather, at least I think it is. This is holding in the colder temperatures a bit longer. We will have to NOWCAST this situation for you during the 5 and 6 PM newscasts as it arrives during rush hour. It could be anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches if it really comes down hard. Plus it is very windy which could cause some blowing and drifting.

Please let us know what you experience. I will use some of the comments on the air.

Gary

Posted by at 2:41 PM | Comments (33)

Precipitation Update

Radar trends are showing a large area of precipitation in north central Kansas. This has been some freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Freezing Rain Advisories and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for part of central Kansas and Nebraska. This is an intense clipper system and it will bring some precipitation to the metro area later today and continue tonight. Be advised there could be a period of mixed precip. or some freezing rain even in the metro area. The current radar trends do show some pockets of precip. near KC...but most if not all of the precip. has been aloft.

I also calculated the departure from average temperatures for a few different time spans this season. The recent cold wave has really brought the winter temperatures back to average.

December 1 to February 15: +1.4

December 22 to February 15: +0.4

January 12 to February 15: -6.9

February 1-15: -11.7

Gary will be tracking the precipitation tonight at 5 & 6pm on NBC Action News and will also let everyone know how much snow to expect tonight!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 12:28 PM | Comments (11)

Alberta Clipper Friday

Good evening everyone,

The weather pattern is in transition. Right now a system is coming into the Pacific northwest. It will turn southeast into the plains. If it turns hard we could have a bigger impact from snow Friday night or Saturday morning and this is something we must pay close attention to. Please don't ask me how much when we really don't think it is going to dive further west. If it shows signs of doing so then you can ask that question.

Friday should have windy conditions from the south and southwest, then Saturday from the north and northwest. Then it warms up Sunday through Monday.

This is an Alberta Clipper. Look below at the latest data. The center of this system is diving southeast across western Iowa. Just northeast of the center could be a band of 3 to 5 inch snows. If this just digs a bit harder on Friday morning as it enters the plains the forecast could change fast. We could be in it. But, at this moment I very much doubt it. This is what makes weather so fascinating though. A slight difference in the track of a storm could mean a huge difference in what we experience. We still may have a band of snow move south behind the wave late Friday night. This must be watched closely. It is very surprising that the Arctic air is not being pulled back in on Saturday. I am shocked. It gets pushed away Friday and on its way into Canada. Usually Friday nights cold front with this type of system would be a return to brutally cold. This is a clear indication of a huge pattern shift.

Click to enlarge (Friday Evening 500 mb NAM forecast)

Gary

Posted by at 5:13 PM | Comments (20)

6:15 AM it is snowing

Good morning,

The NBC Action News Weather team is tracking a fairly large area of rather light snow this morning. There are some bands moving across which are heavy enough to cause a dusting, possibly up to 1/2" or so in a few spots. The moisture content in the snow is extremely low so it will be quite fluffy with liquid to snow ratios of around 25 to 1. So, .01" liquid could be 1/4 inch of snow.

Big changes are in the forecast for next week, but the pattern may still be a bit wild over the next two to three weeks. We are expecting a rather big storm in the region around the and of the month from February 25th to March 1st.

Gary and the NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM

Posted by at 6:26 AM | Comments (23)

Cold Wave stats and major changes

Happy Valentines Day everyone!

The weather pattern is going through a major change. There is a deamplification of the upper level flow and it MUST warm up and substantially soon. Last week we trapped the cold air in here. This week we had another Arctic blast. And, next week the Arctic air retreats and finally leaves for at least a while.

There is a chance of some snow on Thursday morning as a rather strong upper level storm heads south into the plains from Canada. There is limited moisture to work with, but when it is very cold it is easier to saturate the atmosphere so snow may form early Thursday morning. There could even be minor accumulations if it develops. This could be the finale! The Alberta clipper coming down on Friday has Pacific air associated with it. Cold Wave 2007 may be about to end. I will show the Cold Wave 2007 stats I compiled this morning and then finish this blog today with the look ahead to next week.

COLD WAVE 2007

It began January 12th, 2007 when an Arctic front moved through and sleet started falling. It had been cold a few times this winter but many people were wondering if we would have a real winter this year. Well we have! Today is day 34 of the cold wave and it should reach day 36 to 38 before we say it is officially over on Monday! So far February is 10 degrees below average. This will start to be balanced out next week.

Highs during cold wave 2007:

10s: 4 days
20s: 14 days
30s: 8 days
40s: 5 days
50s: 2 days (The warmest day hit 54 degrees and it was 16 that morning)

It has been 32 degrees or lower every morning during the cold wave. 18 degrees was the coldest high, until today or tomorrow. -1 was the coldest low. Both of these lows occured on January 16th.

We had 4 storm systems:

#1.....Sleet storm on January 12-14 Waves of sleet over three days
#2.....Snow storm with 3-6 inches falling on January 20-21
#3.....Snow storm with 1/2" to 1 1/2" on January 31st (35 car pile up)
#4.....Rain changing to snowstorm with 2 to 6 inches February 12-13th

Now, look at the changes! Below is the latest GFS run showing a complete deamplification of the pattern with flow from the Pacific across the entire nation until it rotates around an off the east coast storm that is moving away.

Click to enlarge (GFS forecast for Monday)

If this happens then it must warm up dramatically. We still have to watch that upper low in the southern branch of the flow over the southwest. This could bring up a lot of moisture and suddenly it could be cloudy, but the latest trend is for this to be sitting back to the west enough to keep it away long enough for our big warm up to occur.

The Arctic air may retreat, but look at the map below. It is still extremely cold over Canada next week and poised and ready to make a dramatic return sometime within two to three weeks from now? It isn't what happened in December when it retreated and then it was even wiped out of Canada. At least we don't think that it will happen that way this time.

Click to enlarge (GFS temperature forecast for next Tuesday morning)

Have a great Valentines Day. If you have any questions we will try to get to them later on. We will be tracking the possible Thursday snow and the Alberta clipper on our newscasts tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 10:35 AM | Comments (24)

Weather pattern and Seasonal Snowfall totals

Good afternoon everyone,

This has been an amazing winter.....so far. It isn't over yet. We will talk a little about the overall pattern in a minute. Thank you for all of your snowfall totals. It is amazing how the areas that have been missed continue to get missed. Hopefully a big snowstorm is still in your future within the next few weeks. Here is a list of the seasonal totals thus far.

Pleasanton, KS: 30.2"
Butler, MO: 29.5"
Appleton City, MO: 28.5"
Clinton, MO: 28.2"
Greenwood, MO: 24.0"
Harrisonville, MO: 23.5"
Lee's Summit, MO: 21.8"
Blue Springs, MO: 21.4"
NWS Pleasant Hill: 20.7"
Overland Park, KS: 18.7"
Grain Valley, MO: 18.5"
The Plaza, MO: 16.8"
Trenton, MO: 15.4"
Lawrence, KS: 8.5"
KCI Airport: 8.4"
St. Joseph: 8.2"

The weather pattern remains quite active as we continue to cycle through this same weather pattern that set up in October and early November. If you are new to the blog we call this weather pattern the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle). We believe the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern then continues through winter, spring and summer before finally dying out in late summer. EVERY YEAR is unique, in other words it has never happened before. I don't think anyone would argue this after experiencing this winters weather. The long cold wave we are experiencing right now was predicted by us during our winter forecast. We still have it in our video archives if you want to watch it. Look at the pattern we showed and you will see it is almost identical to what has been happening during the past few weeks. (You can see this by going to our website, here, and then scanning down to our video's click on weather and go back to around November 9th and it is listed there for you to watch). For the critics of the theory, how could I possibly pick out the pattern that has been happening over the past 33 days and counting. There is only one way. The LRC is a major discovery. At least we believe in it and it has worked again. The evidence is overwhelming to us. . We are cycling through the same pattern over and over again. We thought it would be a good one, then we worried, but in the end it happened. In December Jeff Penner was screaming "Where is the Great Lakes Upper low? It was suppose to be one of our main features!", well it came back and has dominated over 1/3 of the winter.

For those of you just learning about my theory, I have been keeping weather data for many years now. This is something I have been studying since the late 1980s, and my theory evolved in the early 1990s. So, this is not just a one year thing. It happens every year without question. But, once again it is still just a theory.

So, what does this mean for the rest of winter? Spring? Summer? More on this later. But we do know the next two to three weeks should be active and the stormiest part of the weather pattern is due in towards the end of the month and early March as we predicted back in December.

Gary

Posted by at 2:57 PM | Comments (37)

Snowfall totals

Good morning,

Wow, what a storm system and now we do have blowing snow. It has been tougher on the snow removal crews as the snow blows back onto already cleared roads. Be careful as you go out and please give yourself extra time to get to your destination. If you are in a hurry then we tend to go a bit too fast. The road conditions should improve as we go through the day.

New bands of snow are forming up the state line between Omaha and Kansas City. These snow bands are rotating south around the upper level storm. Some areas may get additional dusting to 1/4 inch accumulations today.

We are tracking another system for Wednesday night. More on this later.

Brett Anthony will be going over some snowfall totals on Kansas City Live at 10 AM. Please send in your totals. We will do a list on the blog this afternoon. Include in your seasonal total if you have one.
We had drizzle, then rain, then sleet, then snow. Winter has some more time left. Remember the biggest snowstorm in KC history occurred in March.

Gary

Posted by at 7:56 AM | Comments (55)

Thundersnow!!!!!

Bulletin: Thundersnow is being reported with huge snowflakes on the south side. A band of heavy snow will continue. Enjoy this unique phenomena. It is dangerous out there as my car, a Jeep Grand Cherokee was sliding on the way home. Be careful. I am on my way out with Breezy and Stormy to check out the huge snowflakes.

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

Posted by at 11:23 PM | Comments (22)

9:40 PM update

We will have extensive details on the 10 PM newscast in a few minutes. Right now I am seeing a decreasing trend up north, but 4 to 6 inches will still be likely in many spots. So, I think it will be a bit under that previous forecast that came out. Further south I am expecting radar echoes to increase over night with the potential for 2 to 5 inches down near La Cygne, Clinton, Appleton City, Warrensburg. Overall this is still tricky, but most areas will see a snowstorm tonight. Blowing snow is still likely in the morning. With the temperatures dropping the liquid content in the snow should be extracted just enough to allow it to become more powdery.

Enjoy the snowstorm, and please be careful in the morning.

Gary

Posted by at 9:31 PM | Comments (23)

Heavy Snow Warning.....8 PM update

The radar trend is looking like a long duration heavy snow event just north of Kansas City. I still think this area will drift and develop south overnight. But for now it appears 6 to 10 inches will fall in some spots.

Snow is increasing over central Kansas. This is still tricky as new areas of snow will be likely developing south and west later on tonight.

The new NAM model has just come out. I like the radar trends and it looks like 4 to 8 inch amounts will be possible by noon Tuesday. This has a lot of potential and with the radar trends this evening I am confident that we will end up with heavy snow for hours in some spots. There will be bands of heavier snow. So, many areas could still end up with 3 or 4 inches and others closer to 8 inches or more.

Gary

Posted by at 7:44 PM | Comments (69)

4:15 update

We are Having rain mixed with HUGE snow flakes right now in ST. JOE
I'd say a 50/50 mix right now!!!!
Nick in ecxiting St. Joe!

At 4:00 P.M. in St. Joe, it is mostly if not completely snow, now the only question is when will it get cold enough to stick!!
The fun is here!!!
Nick in St. Joe!!

4:32 PM Me again, HUGE AND I MEAN HUGE SNOW FLAKES QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED AT LEAST!!!!!!!!!!!!! IN ST. JOE!
NICK:):)

This is from one of our bloggers, Nick in St. Joseph! It is snowing!!!!!!!!!!!! The rain snow line is beginning to show up. We will be tracking this tonight on NBC ACTION NEWS at 5, 6, and 10 PM.

We are in comment overload right now, so I can't get to each one individually for a while. Watch our newscasts and we will answer your questions. At least I hope we do.

Gary

Posted by at 4:15 PM | Comments (49)

2:30 PM update

Good afternoon everyone,

New data coming out has no major changes. Right now we are trying to locate the rain/snow line. It may form during the next two or three hours and then start its drift southward. It is raining in most spots, including in Nebraska as of right now. A large area of rain is now moving in and it should be cold enough to snow between Kansas City and Maryville. We will pick out this line and show it to you tonight on our newscasts as we track this very interesting situation.

If you live up north and experience the changeover to snow let us know so we can correctly track this rain/snow line as it heads south.

Gary

Posted by at 2:29 PM | Comments (31)

10:30 AM Update

Good morning everyone,

This storm is very unique as there really isn't an upper low forming. As you can see in the map that Brett showed in the last entry (look below this entry) the waves are not very organized, but you can notice something important. The upper level flow is very negatively tilted. The trough leans from northwest to southeast right across our area. This has allowed a rather unusual and dynamic situation at other levels of the atmosphere. There is a strong surface low developing now in southwest Kansas, but in the next few hours it will be forming over north Texas as the storm begins to rapidly intensify at the surface. Look below at the 10:16 AM map.

Click to enlarge (Surface map at 10:16 AM)

The map below shows the precipitation type forecast by the RUC model for 9 PM. Notice the rain snow line is now on the south side of the city and shifting south rather rapidly.

Click to enlarge (blue is snow, green is rain.....valid 9 PM tonight)

We still have some challenges. When will the changeover occur? Where will the heaviest bands of snow line up? And, how long will the precipitation last? We will figure this out for you on our newscasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM. Right now we are still thinking widespread 2 to 3 inch amounts, and as Brett has been explaining this morning there is a chance of a 5 inch or more area, but where? We may not know for sure until this evening so watch our newscasts.

So, now the waiting begins. It can be frustrating. When will the rain change to snow? This may be the biggest factor in how much snow falls.

Watch out for the end of the week. A strong Alberta Clipper is forecast to actually bring us some snow Friday night. This has been a bit more consistent on the models lately. We will talk about this tonight as well.

We will try to get to your questions, but it will be a very busy day today.

Gary

Posted by at 10:23 AM | Comments (24)

Monday Morning Update

Good Morning,
The forecast is a challenge to say the least. The first part of the day seems to be playing out as expected. Temperatures are well above freezing this morning and there is a southeast wind insuring that we stay above that critical 32 degree temperature. That's important because there is an area of rain heading toward KC. Here is a link to the current radar image.
http://www.nbcactionnews.com
Overnight, and I have to be careful not to get modelitis, some of the new data suggested a wetter storm and a more southward track to the storm with more snowfall in Kansas City and the surrounding area.
Click to Enlarge

This has been the trend with a lot of the storms this season.
Also, the upper low may strengthen just enough to help generate more lift.
Click to Enlage


We are watching this storm carefully. Watch the Today Show this morning and Kansas City Live at 10:00 a.m. for more updates and of course NBC Action News at 5 and 6pm.

Thanks and have a great Monday,
Brett

Posted by at 7:02 AM | Comments (25)

11:15 PM update

Good late Sunday night everyone,

I am sure a lot of you are just a bit excited about this storm. As we have said, this is very unique and evolving right before our eyes. We will get another solution in the morning and we should start to get a feeling on the exact changeover time and amounts. Jeremy went 2 to 3 inches with possibly 4 inches in the metro area and 4 to 6 inches north. Only 1-2 inches south, but this is the forecast as of now. These totals may go up or down, and the bullseye of heaviest snow may completely shift after we see the eyes of this storm in the morning. The Canadian model has a blizzard near by on Tuesday morning which is possible. The other models have varying solutions. But, everything is pointing to a white ground by Tuesday morning.

We are so excited to have you bloggers go along for the ride with us. And, there are some of you out there that don't want this to happen. There are concerns for Tuesday morning travel and other troubles that this storm will possibly cause. We will go over some of these concerns if it really appears this will hit us.

Have a great night. Be sure to wake up early and watch Brett Anthony as he looks at the new data. A storm is approaching. What a winter we have had. Maybe those of you up north will finally get a nice snowfall. We will know in about 24 hours.

Gary

Posted by at 11:20 PM | Comments (8)

Quick Update...and a website to check out.

The 00Z NAM does have more of a storm...meaning a better chance for slightly higher snow totals. Keep in mind a forecast can't be made off one model so we will check out the 00Z GFS in the upcoming minutes and likely post a new blog sometime tonight.

I mentioned a couple of websites about 2 weeks ago and said that when the next storm comes along I would mention this again.

Check out this site:

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

This site is complex but I want to show you a couple of things. First off...when you enter a weather identifier(3 letter code) you must put it in the form of K then the 3 letters. Example.

Kmci for Kansas City Airport

Here are some of the other local weather codes

St. Joe: stj
Lee's Summit: lxt
Olathe: ojc
Topeka: top
Chillicothe: cdj
Manhattan: mhk

There are many others...but these are a few to play around with.

Next...click on the model of choice. Let's use the NAM Sfc Parameters(used for 12Z & 00Z). Enter Kmci. Click 'extracted file'. The numbers open. What I want to direct you to is the column that says 'Snowfall In'. Add those columns up and that is what the NAM is going for a snow total in that one spot. Questions...just ask. Otherwise just play around. This site is a little advanced but really useful when storms are around.

Posted by jnelson at 9:09 PM | Comments (7)

Storm evolution update

Good afternoon everyone,

Our weather team has been discussing this storm today to try and figure out what will happen. This is a very unique storm as we have discussed in the past few blog entries. The upper levels are not very organized, but there is a convergence of data finally settling on one solution. This will likely be a storm that intensifies over the plains and even strengthens a bit more as it is just passing Kansas City. This is important. If an upper low can form there will be a much better chance of a more prolonged period of snow. There isn't quite an upper low on any computer model run, but I think one may form over eastern Kansas or western Missouri on Monday night.

A lot of you want specific snowfall forecasts and Jeremy will have one on the air tonight at 5 and 10 PM. When answering blogs we will probably be more vague. I have thought all along that the snow forecast for Nebraska and Iowa was way off and that it was targeting our viewing area more as it has all season long. At this moment it appears there is a good chance of rain changing to freezing rain/sleet during the evening Monday and then to snow overnight. We lean towards the more widespread 1-3 inch range, but there is certainly potential for a more than this.

These questions may not be answered until sometime Monday:

1. When will the precipitation begin?
2. How much liquid equivalent will this storm produce?
3. When will the precipitation change to all snow?
4. Will an upper low form?
5. How long will the accumulating snow last into Tuesday?
6. How much cold air will be drawn into the strengthening storm on Monday?

These are just some of the questions that we will try to answer during our weathercasts tonight and Monday. Northern Missouri could see the heaviest snow or it could be just south and east of Kansas City? I am leaning towards it still being further south. But, it is just too early to tell. We know what has happened so far this season. This is a unique storm to this season though. This is a fun one to try to figure out.

We will try to update the blog later today, but watch the newscasts for the most accurate and best weather information as we use our computers to help tell this weather story.

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

Posted by at 1:36 PM | Comments (42)

00Z Model Updates...

This is a good news bad news situation if you want snow. Take this update at face value but here is what the latest model data puts out based on the snow categories associated with each model. This is for KCI.

NGM: trace-2"
NAM: 4-6"
GFS: 4-6"

This is from late Monday into Tuesday. Keep in mind this is one snapshot of ONE model run. I wanted to post this because a lot of people were down in the dumps with how the previous runs treated the storm. The 00Z GFS has a little more of a storm and the colder air pushing in a little sooner...that's why the total went up in the 00Z run. Gary may post some thoughts tomorrow morning and I'll be in at 6am to do cut-ins during the Today Show...so check out the latest forecast then! Rest up...this might be a fun storm!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 10:26 PM | Comments (10)

Cold Snap...And The Early Week Update

Before we talk about the early week storm I wanted to update everyone on the cold snap and pass along some statistics. Today marked day 30 of the recent cold spell which began on January 12. During that time span there have been only 6 days with a high temperature ABOVE average. So let's take a look at the departure from average for a few different time spans.

January 12 - February 10: -5.9

February 1 - February 10: -10.9

If you look back to December 1 and figure these numbers we are still about 2.3 degrees above average. With more cold weather in the forecast this week there is a chance we could push this number to around 1.0 degree above average. I know MANY winter forecasts called for either above average or much above average temperatures for the winter based on El Nino. Gary will do a comparison in the upcoming weeks to show how his winter forecast is faring against reality.

Now on to the early week storm. Based off the 18Z models and the trend it does not look very good for a big snow in KC if things remain the same. Light rain should begin on Monday and changeover to a mix then to snow late Monday evening or Monday night from north to south. As of NOW(early Sat. evening) we could still see 1-3" in Kansas City with the heavier totals on the north side of town for a change. The best chance of 6"+ would be near the IA/MO border...so outside of the viewing area. Areas south of town would see very little snow from this scenario. One blogger pointed out that the upper level low is south of KC...which is normally good for snow. This is true...but if you look at the 500mb charts...the upper low is not well defined or surely not closed off. When the November 30, 2006 storm rolled through the upper low was VERY impressive...that is a big reason why areas south of KC saw over 20" from that one storm.

Can the track or cold air placement change? Yes. But the trend has been for warmer temperatuers...not colder. Keep in mind the forecast snow totals are a good place to start across the area. These could obviously go up or down based on future trends.

Gary will likely update the blog early tomorrow morning and then I'll take over again in the afternoon. Please feel free to ask any questions and one of us will answer them. Make sure to tune into NBC Action News at 10pm for an update on the latest trends(00Z models).

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:34 PM | Comments (7)

Evolution of a storm.....very tricky

Good morning everyone,

A very unique storm is setting up over the next 48 hours. It still has quite a few questions and all of the ingredients to create a major winter storm, but how will it impact us? Will it be rain and just a little bit of snow, rain and a lot of snow, or not much at all and just another Arctic front?

Problem #1: Warm air being pulled north as the storm develops. A surface low is likely going to form Sunday night over the Texas Panhandle. This will draw in Gulf of Mexico air and our temperatures will rise. This will make it too warm near the ground and through the lower 6,000 feet of the atmosphere by Sunday night.

Solution to problem #1: Another strong Arctic airmass is entering the United States and will ooze south and make it to Kansas and Missouri Monday night. And, the surface low will strengthen and move into Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday. This will pull the Arctic air into the wet storm.

Problem #2: Strength of the upper level storm. Most storm systems are driven by a strong upper level system. This is very different than most storm systems and it is tricky. The upper level storm develops and evolves as a series of upper level systems come across the west coast and gradually sag into a storm over the plains as they hit the developing baroclinic zone (a baroclinic zone is a tight area of temperature contrast, so when the Arctic airmass reaches the surging warm air we suddenly have a strong baroclinic zone for this storm to form on Monday).

Solution to problem #2: A storm in the upper levels strengthens right over Kansas and Oklahoma. I have found storm systems that form right near you are often the most impressive ones, but tricky because what happens if they don't quite get their act together? It appears this one does just in time.

Look below at the two 850 mb maps. This is a level around 5,000 feet up.

Click to enlarge (850 mb NAM forecast for 6 AM Monday)

Click to enlarge (Nam Forecast 850mb Tuesday morning)

Click to enlarge (NAM 500 mb forecast for Monday at 6 PM)

The NAM model forecasts an 850 mb low to develop over western Kansas and then intensify and track into southern Missouri by Tuesday morning. By this time you can see that the warmer air that had been drawn into our region by Monday morning is wiped out and an entire cyclone has developed at most levels with moisture all over the place.

The third map is the 500 mb flow showing the just barely organized nature at this level as a trough swings through. This is where I have big concerns. The series of upper level systems that will form into that trough could end up evolving a bit further south or north. We just don't know for sure. A little difference will go a long way into deciding how long our winter weather part of this storm lasts.

Rain is a high likelihood Monday into Monday evening before it turns cold enough for snow. This is where I will leave you today. There are still a lot of uncertainties. I thought we would just let you see a few of them as this storm evolves. It is sort of developing "out of no where", so this is very complex. Someone could get a lot of snow out of this. We just haven't pinned down the exact area at this time. And, there may be some freezing rain or a mixture as well, but this should not be the main type from this storm. I firmly believe this is mostly a rain changing to snow event.

Jeremy will update later this evening after we get some more data! I have a couple of public appearances today. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 9:50 AM | Comments (29)

A trend towards more of a storm

Good Friday evening,

This potential storm is still three days away, so do not get excited. But, you know when we start seeing a trend then confidence grows. A trend has started on the NAM and GFS this afternoon towards more of a major winter storm Monday or Monday night. This is a unique and rather complex set up in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The ingredients are there, but will they all come together. Here are the ingredients:

1. Cold air is retreating, but there is an Arctic blast that is forecast to arrive Monday or Monday night at the same time this storm is moving across.

2. Warm, moist air near the Gulf coast is available and an ample supply available to be injected into this storm.

3. Upper level energy, this is still disorganized but the latest models take a series of disturbances and create more of a solid storm system as it moves into the plains Monday.

So, will this come together or not? Confidence is still a bit shaky but growing.

Gary

Posted by at 4:08 PM | Comments (23)

Disorganized storm?

Happy Friday everyone,

There is still potential for a significant storm next week, but there is no obvious organization to this storm system. The only thing I am certain of is the fact that our cold wave, in day 29 today, will continue for another 7 days at least. Here are the factors for the next few days:

1. A series of weak upper level storm systems, let's stress the weak part, will be tracking across the west coast and moving across the United States. There isn't a clear indication that any of this energy will organize into a big storm at this time.

2. Warmer air will be drawn in from the south on Sunday.

3. Another Arctic blast is organizing as the Polar vortex spins and weakens near the Great Lakes this weekend. This Arctic airmass will be arriving Monday or Tuesday and may play a factor in the developing storm system.

So, at this moment it appears that without any organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere it is going to be very difficult to produce any significant winter storm. We will continue monitoring this for subtle changes. I am not surprised, but a bit disappointed for sure. This part of the pattern has not produced any significant storm systems for us this season. All we need is for one of these upper level systems to be a bit stronger and we could still end up with something big, but at this moment I am thinking this will be a minor event.

Gary

Posted by at 10:27 AM | Comments (15)

Snow this morning

Good morning,

Brett is tracking storm #1 on Live ESP this morning. This band of snow will likely move through and produce a quick 1/2" of snow mainly from Kansas City, KS north and east across downtown before this falls apart. So, storm #1 did not go poof, it is going to produce a one hour band of snow this morning.

Then, the other systems are taking on different looks as well. We will blog more later this morning.

Gary

Posted by at 5:57 AM | Comments (6)

10 PM update

Good evening everyone,

Storm #1.....poof
Storm #2.....still watching
Storm #3.....Confidence is still low, despite our 70%

Well, tonight the wave producing the snow in Nebraska is weak and not very well defined. I doubt it does more than a few flurries with the exception of northern Missouri where a dusting to one inch could fall.

The pattern for Saturday also looks disorganized as it is caught in the changing Pacific flow, so we are almost taking that chance completely out. Amazing how things can change in just a few hours isn't it. There is still some hope for this, but not much.

Then, Sunday through Monday Arctic air is coming down and could be a factor as a storm forms. But, it is not classic by any means and it could track south of us.

We should see it coming together with a bit more confidence on Friday.

Gary

Posted by at 9:45 PM | Comments (3)

Will there be a storm?

Good afternoon everyone,

I am on my way to talk to second graders. I am bringing Stormy, as Breezy still has a few issues that we are working on. Stormy will hopefully put on a show after we talk about tornado safety. I am bringing the front page of the KC Star to show the kids how the smoke yesterday looked like a tornado.

There are three systems heading towards us.

#1 tonight: A fast moving wave coming through the Rockies ridge will likely produce 1 to 2 inches of snow north of Kansas City near the Iowa border overnight. Could it track a bit further south? Yes, and this is what we will be working on this afternoon.

#2: Saturday: A system, a bit stronger than tonights will likely produce a larger area of snow and it may go across the same northern areas. Could it be further south? Yes, and we will also be figuring this one out on our newscasts tonight.

#3: Monday: An even stronger and wetter system. Warmer air will be drawn in ahead of this, but another Arctic surge is likely going to be heading south from Canada at the same time. Watch out? This could be the right conditions for a big winter storm. But, where will the rain/sleet/snow line be. Right now the models have it near Kansas City. Oh, this will make it fun.

Any questions?

Click to enlarge (Stormy & I visit Overland Trail Elementary 2nd graders)

Gary

Posted by at 12:28 PM | Comments (32)

2007 Cold Wave

Good evening everyone,

Before we get to the cold wave here is the stat of the day. Trenton, MO had 1/2 inch of snow up in Grundy county today!

Here is an overview of our on going "Cold Wave 2007":

Cold Wave 2007

Beginning: January 12th.....The high was 31 degrees (It was 60 on January 11th)

Length: 27 days and counting
Outlook: At least 7 more days, possibly more

Significant events:

1. Sleet/Ice storm January 12th through 14th
2. Snow storm 3-6 inches January 20-21st
3. Snow event 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches on January 31st

Coldest so far: -1 on January 16th
Coldest high temperature: 18 degrees on the 16th

The cold wave has a powerful hold over our region and shows no signs of fading. We are still monitoring some chances for snow. The chance Sunday through Tuesday is still there, but it does not seem like a very organized upper level storm. We have noticed that some of our bigger winter events have actually come from more disorganized rather than organized events. More on these developments in the next few days. It is too early to get into specifics.

Posted by at 4:07 PM | Comments (17)

The Polar Bear Plunge & it is cold

I am finally thawed out and we found these pictures on Tim Grunhard's website, so a big thank you to him for the pics. It was unbelieveably, mind numbingly cold in and out of the water. They had to cut the ice with a chain saw. The air temperature at the time of the plunge was 15, wind chill about 5. Still, its for a good cause and its fun to do something crazy. I've always loved to experience extremes when it comes to weather. 200 people took the plunge at Longview Lake, another 200 plunged at Shawnee Mission Park Lake and across Metro KC around 80-thousand dollars was raised. Below are the pictures. In the second picture, you'll see Mr. Incredible, that's Grunhard. You may ask why I was a Frog? I'll answer that below the pictures.

Frogs have the ability to shutdown half their cells in their body for protection. So, like a frog, when I went in the water, I was not breathing, my heart was not beating and the blood was not flowing, apparently to my brain.
Next year's plunge is the first Saturday in February. See you there.

Keep watching the frog, I mean the blog, for more details on a possible storm for later this weekend.

Posted by at 6:00 AM | Comments (13)

Dramatic Kansas City weather

Good evening everyone,

I think most of you will agree that, even though we missed today's forecast high by 9 degrees, it was one of our best forecasts in months. Even at 10 PM last night I showed how it could be 56 degrees today, and it happened. But, with every victory there seems to be a few out there that think we shouldn't be so proud today. Just read a few of those blog comments that have come in. We can take the criticism though as we will always strive to have the most accurate forecast in Kansas City.

60 degrees in Olathe, 57 downtown, 54 at KCI, and we were not surprised at all. This is what we thought could happen today. As I refer you back to Jeremy's post from Sunday during the Superbowl you can see that we were by far the most accurate and consistent forecast in Kansas City. Last week when we picked today out as the one warm day we were 20 degrees above the other forecasts. It was not easy last night sticking with the forecast with so much Arctic air in place. Brett had the tough job of working this morning while it was 15 degrees outside and sticking with it. Jeremy pointed out that last night we were also the ONLY ones going for a completely sunny nice and much warmer day.

Now, let's look ahead. I have found that as soon as you make a great forecast then the next day or week it gets thrown in your face. So, the challenge will be there as this pattern gets even wackier next week. There is not a strong storm heading our way next week, but a series of weaker disturbances. Can the Arctic air stay in place? If it does then Sunday through Tuesday could have a winter storm affecting us. It is still a bit far out there, but with the surge of cold air forecast to reinforce the Arctic air already in place this weekend we may just have the combination that will bring this winter storm to fruition. This set up is similar to one we had around the 9th to 12th of November. This time though we may have Arctic air to work with. This is just 5 days away at this point, but a lot can still change between now and Sunday.

Have a great evening. We experienced a really unusual day of weather. 23 degrees yesterday. 54 today, and back into the 20s tomorrow. We just skipped the 30s and 40s.

Gary

Posted by at 7:56 PM | Comments (13)

45 at 11 AM.....Enjoy this one nice day!

Good late morning,

We will blog later about the potential storm on Sunday into Tuesday. In the mean time can you believe this? Look back to Jeremy's blog entry from Sunday. We have been going for 42 to 45 degrees since last Thursday for today's high. Even last night when every other forecast was still in the middle 30s, we stuck with our 45 degree forecast as we still didn't see any reason to change. This was not an easy thing to do! But, no we are particularly proud. The only concern now is will it go into the 50s. The surface low will pass by in the next two to three hours and tempertatures should stop rising. What a great day. Unfortunately we go back into the freezer tonight. Once again, go back to Jeremy's blog to see how this forecast is one of our best! Do you agree?

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team!

Posted by at 11:16 AM | Comments (30)

One small warm up

Good evening,

The new data coming out this evening is not helping much for Tuesday's forecast. This is not a classic set up for this situation. And, so this leaves me wondering this evening about the warm up on Tuesday. We are likely going to stick with our 45 degrees but I can see 33 degrees and I can still see 50 degrees around 3 PM on Tuesday in Kansas City. Then, the colder air moves back in Tuesday night and stays with us for another 5 days.

There is a chance of an even stronger push of Arctic air by the weekend. We went with a high on Saturday of 15 degrees. Amazingly it is staying dry. We should have had a few inches of snow during the past week. Will it stay dry for the next week? More on this tonight at 10 PM and tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 8:23 PM | Comments (15)

The pattern is changing

Good morning everyone,

The pattern is changing and substantially, but what does it mean for us? The weather pattern is now going to be less amplified, at least for a while, but we are still in northwest flow aloft which will leave us susceptable to another Arctic airmass later this week. A ridge aloft over the western United States is preventing any storm system from affecting us. Even with patterns like this weak disturbances can still produce light precipitation events. So, we will watch closely for these as we go through the week. The best chance may come this weekend, but even this chance doesn't have much upper level support, so it is questionable.

As Jeremy wrote yesterday and our entire team has been very consistent. Tuesday looks like the one warmer day of the week. Look below:

Click to enlarge (Surface map forecast for noon Tuesday)

This map shows the surface low moving into Kansas from the north. This will pull the warm front through us during the morning on Tuesday and if this happens temperatures could jump into the 50s. Right now we will stick with somewhere in the 40s, but we will monitor this situation closely and update if we gain confidence in it. We were 20 degrees above most forecasts last week for Tuesday and now everyone else is catching on to what happens with the weather. It is tricky, no doubt, but when we forecast we will always go for what we think will happen. There is NEVER any hype with our weather forecasts. This doesn't mean we are always right. But, we think we make the right decision most of the time and days ahead of other forecasts. I know most of you already know this. I better not be jinking Tuesday's forecast.

Then we look ahead.....again look below:

Click to enlarge

This map shows the upper level flow coming off the Pacific and across the USA. But look what happens three days later.

Click to enlarge

This map is valid next Monday morning. Notice the ridge over the west is now gone and we are fully into the Pacific flow. This will bring us a chance of rain, that's right rain. I welcome the change!

Gary

Posted by at 10:33 AM | Comments (15)

Tuesday Warm-Up

I thought I'd take a break during halftime of the big game to write some thoughts on the weather for this upcoming week. I also want to show you more forecast numbers...much like I passed along yesterday.

This is one of our coldest outbreaks in many years! Today marked day 24 of our cold air outbreak. 19 of the past 24 days have produced a high temperature at or below average in Kansas City! Outside of a ONE day warm-up this week expect highs to remain below average this week. Now onto the warm-up! The setup for Tuesday has low pressure moving over the northern Plains and a warm front pushing through Kansas City during the day on Tuesday. There may be some morning clouds...but once those break up or clear temperatures should warm quickly. Highs will likely reach the 40s in the metro area with 50s very likely not that far away. Keep in mind this would be a big warm-up from our current readings...but if highs top out in the upper 40s or lower 50s this is only 10 degrees above average. Highs over the weekend in Kansas City were more extreme with temperatures about 15 degrees or more below average.

Once the storm passes by to our north another shot of cold air arrives on Wednesday. Anytime from Wednesday to Friday there is a chance of some freezing drizzle, flurries, or light snow. But we will fine tune that part of the forecast with each new set of data.

Last night we talked about our forecast from the previous weekend, which worked out very well for our current stretch of cold weather. Now let's look at our forecast for this upcoming Tuesday(the 'warm' day) in comparison to other forecasts for the same time period. Since I'm really into statistical analysis and keep a weather diary of all local forecasts I wanted to pass this along. Please keep in mind that I will rarely do this, but the past two days have provided glaring differences in forecasts from one source to another. I know Gary makes it a practice to not look at other sources...but I always kept track of everyone's forecast at my previous job. There was no Weather Rate to certify who was the weather leader when I worked in Madison, WI.

Last Thursday night Gary mentioned that this Tuesday was looking like 40s would be a real possibility. So we started to forecast 42 degrees for Tuesday and have left the temp there until today(Sunday). We are now looking for a high of 45...with 50s not out of the question...especially southwest of KC. There wasn't even ONE forecast close to the 30s, not mention the 40s as of last Thursday.

Here is the breakdown of the forecast highs for TUESDAY beginning last Friday morning. You will see an AM & PM high temp to account for any change that was made during the day. I do not have Saturday AM temps. Outside of the NWS I will refer to the other sources as 1, 2, etc.

Friday Saturday Sunday
AM PM PM AM PM
NBC-KSHB 42 42 42 42 45

Source 1 23 28 24 32 40

Source 2 25 28 28 38 38

Source 3 22 38 35 40 45

NWS 23 24 25 36 43

You'll notice that while the data has changed very little...the forecasts have been outside of our's(we have been the only consistent and accurate forecast). The reason I posted this is to drive home the point that we continue to be KC's weather leader by using forecast analysis of all data available, Gary's expertise and weather pattern theory, and our past experience with all types of weather situations.

Now back to the game...

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:02 PM | Comments (6)

A Little Snow...Plenty of Cold...And Just The Facts

Live ESP continues to show some light snow and flurries south of the metro area. This is mainly in a line from near Clinton north and west to around Ottawa. Emporia has reported light snow the pas 2 hours. Snow accumulations will be a half inch or less in most spots. Here in the metro we may see a flurry or two...but that's about it. Best chance of seeing the flurries will be south of downtown KC.

Highs today were in the upper teens and low twenties across the area today. I mentioned this during the 5pm show on Saturday, but wanted to discuss it here if you missed out. Our recent cold snap is now in day 23! Here is a quick breakdown. From January 12 through today there have only been 5 days with above average high temperatures. During that same time frame there have been 18 days with highs at or below average. This is using the data from KCI. Recent model analysis continues to point to more cold weather this week. We are still looking at a one day warm-up into the 40s on Tuesday. This is even tricky because Kansas City is so close to the dividing line on that day between 40s and 50s and highs in the 20s and 30s. We are on the high end of the forecast spectrum in regards to Tuesday compared to other forecasts...but are still confident the cold will ease for one day.

After Tuesday temps head back down, and with warmer air running over the cold air at the surface we should see a lot of cloud cover and also the possibility of drizzle. I won't get into this much right now outside of saying there is a chance by mid-week. We'll focus more on this Sunday when we have a better idea of the Tuesday warm-up.

Last weekend we were forecasting the arrival of the really cold air which settled into the region this week. Since we are always striving to provide the most accurate forecast we decided to randomly choose another KC forecast(last Saturday) and compare 7 days later(today). We used the KCI observation for the official highs and lows. Over the span of 7 days we beat the other forecast by 28 degrees...or on average 2 degrees each day. Here is a look at our forecast highs from last Saturday for days 5-7. That would be this past Thursday, Friday, and Saturday(Today). Below are the forecast high temperatures for those days.

Thursday: 28
Friday: 22
Saturday: 18

Of those 3 high temperatures...the only day that was not exactly right was Saturday(today). Today our forecast from 7 days ago was off by 1 degree. Was our forecast perfect the entire 7 days in retrospect...no. But we are happy that we were able to communicate to people that it was going to get cold...and stay cold. We are now in day 23 of one of our longest cold stretches in years. If you love winter...soak this up...because our average high in KC is almost 50 degrees by March 1.

Have a great Sunday and stay warm! We'll continue to track the brief warm-up for Tuesday and any precip. chances coming up.

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:25 PM | Comments (9)

Friday evening & Saturday update

The 18z leans heavily in the warmer and drier solution for next week. I lean in that direction too. We should know soon. This pattern is what it is as Jeff Penner said months ago. There is still a lot of potential as we move through February. Bundle up and have a great weekend.

Jeremy will update the blog later with his thoughts. In the mean time it appears the colder solution is going to win. At least this is what it looks like at this time. There may be some light precipitation a couple of times during the next 7 days, but more importantly it appears the Arctic airmass is just too powerful to be overcome at least for a while. We still have to watch some warmer air heading our way Tuesday, but it may stop just west an south of here????

Gary

Posted by at 4:50 PM | Comments (14)

Same pattern, big changes, but what does it mean?

Click to enlarge (500 mb forecast next Thursday)

Good FRIDAY afternoon everyone,

Wow, the weather pattern is doing exactly what it should be doing......in the upper levels. The deamplification is occuring as expected, but could something unusual happen? Remember, the same upper level pattern can produce very different weather at the surface. The above map is this mornings 144 hour GFS showing the Pacific flow coming in and breaking down the Arctic and northern jet stream. But, look below.

Click to enlarge (Surface forecast for 6 AM next Thursday)

Click to enlarge (850 mb showing the moisture)

The surface map shows the Arctic air hanging in there despited the changing conditions aloft. The map above shows the 850 mb flow and significant amount of moisture (saturated air) at this level just above the surface.

This setup could trap in cold air with moisture feeding above the trapped lower levels. A very, very unusual set up. I have seen some patterns with the ability to do this, but not in many years. So, let's see how this pans out. A little difference here or there and it will be warmer and dry next week. But, this solution could be freezing drizzle, drizzle, some snow, a mess. It is too far away and too complex. We will show special graphics describing this possiblity tonight on NBC ACTION NEWS. Be sure to watch. Then, over the weekend into early next week one of the scenarios will be taking shape. There really isn't a storm heading this way at all. This would help set up the trapped scenario.

Have a great weekend and go INDIANAPOLIS!

Gary & the NBC Action Weather Team

Posted by at 12:22 PM | Comments (18)

Changes.....BIG CHANGES!

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow forecast for next Friday)

Finally, the change I have been expecting. The sad part about knowing about the LRC is that I know what is likely to happen next. The breakthrough of the southern branch and Pacific flow. This is very highly likely going to happen and within 7 days. But, what does it mean? It means that the Arctic air is going to retreat within the next week. It just has to! I know the models have been holding on to the Arctic air, but it just doesn't fit. The pattern is about to deamplify and get boring for a while.

This is very good news for people with "cabin fever". I am expecting a much warmer trend as we move into the second week of February. But, you know what to expect later in the month? Yes, a return of the stormiest part of our pattern.

The above map shows the southern stream taking over on the latest GFS run! Believe it!!!!!! Before this change occurs there is still a chance of some light snow at times into Tuesday. Just nothing too significant.

Gary

Posted by at 4:54 PM | Comments (24)

Some Stats to Consider

Good Morning,
As we head into February and more cold weather, here are a few stats to think about.

February 1st, Average High: 38
February 28th, Average High 48

So February is a bit of transition month. But we can still get some very cold air toward the end of the month, For instance, February 2003, we had two days at the end of the month with highs in the teens.

This month is starting off very cold, but will we see a stretch of arctic air like we did from January 25th to February 7th, 2004? For 14 straight days, our highs did not reach freezing. The trend is there this year, we will see what happens.

And one more nugget for you, Climtalogically speaking, February 5th is the snowiest day of the year.

February 5th,
27% of the time we have at least flurries or .01" inches of snow.
21% of the time we have an inch of snow on the 5th.
15% of the time we have 2 inches of snow on the 5th.
February, 2004, 7.5 inches of snow fell
and this year there is a chance of light snow on the 5th.
Click to enlarge,

I'm hoping for a stronger "Clipper system" but we will see what happens.

Have a great day,
Brett

Posted by at 7:40 AM | Comments (7)