**************
I just wish it would track a bit further south.

Why? Is it simply wanting more moisture in here or the thrill of the storm?
---------------------
Frank,

I want it to track a bit further south because then instead of getting rain, wind, then dry slot, then a little snow.....we could get more rain, wind, no dry slot, and a bit more snow. To me it is just more exciting. This is why I say this. We are going to have this storm, so we might as well have more of a show. Now, with this said, I don't want any severe weather! But, again this is just me.

Gary

***************
I was curious about how far south your expecting the severe weather to be? The NWS has posted a Hazardous Outlook for Iola with an 80% chance of severe thunderstorms after midnight and chances for brief tornados through tomorrow afternoon. Do you think we are warm enough for this to happen? I think it sounds like it could hit us overnight, what do you think? I think we are in for a wild evening and maybe an even wilder day tomorrow! Very excited in Iola! Thank you!
--------------------
Tabitha,

There is an extremely small chance down near Iola. I am thinking southern Oklahoma.

Gary

Well the only good news we can take from this latest run is that this entire winter storms have always been south of the models. I want a lot of snow on every storm, so here is to moving that bad boy down by Joplin.

***************
Hi Gary!

You said that NW Missouri has a chance of signficant snow...any estimates on how much this could mean for Maryville?

Thanks!
----------------
Sue,

2-5 inches possible.

Gary

******
Gary, what time do expect the Thunderstorms to move into Lawrence this evening?

Dan

********

Dan,

An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon.

Jeremy

Good mid morning everybody!!!!

On my off hour, so once again, had to take a lok at the models and the Blog!!!! Of course, I'm hooked!!

Is the 12Z NAM a bit further south with the ULL than it was on the 0 and 6Z? Looks like it is at about Joplin before it heads North East-not that it is correct or even as is if it is far enough south but just an observation-I think?? Maybe I'm just willing myself to see it LOL!!!!

Have a great afternoon-will be fun to watch this thing develop in the desert SW tonight!!!

Bill in Lawrence

*************
I dont normally use this blog - but I had a question. My husband left this a.m. to go to a 4 X 4 Jeep Road Rally in Ft. Scott, Ks. They are camping overnight - and im wondering about the weather....any feeling for Ft. Scott area??

They are all ouside the whole time!
--------------------
Julie,

Just a band of rain. Maybe a thunderstorm. And, a slight chance it is a severe thunderstorm.

GAry

Gary,

Hasn't the trend been for these storms to "model" over Kansas City and then go further south at the last minute? Is this storm following the same projection as previous storms which would leave us with the possibility of it going further south?

I would love rain/snow all day and night!

*************
Of course, I have to be the outlier. This is such a complex system. Looking at the surface analysis nearly gave me a headache. Looking at that and the WV, its pretty interesting. I can see where the dryline is going to form. Pretty cool. Much of it should be in Oklahoma, but I can see S. Kansas getting a piece of it. Seems the secondary surface low ahead of the storm is in place now. The convection for this will not come from cap, but from the rapid cooling. I also note a shallow warm front up closer to our neck of the woods. This should help bring the moisture to us faster. I expect some unsettled weather this afternoon into the evening into tomorrow. Severe? Probably not. Now..here is what is boggling. I am not sure I see surface dry slot coming this far north..oddly. I think we will stay in the comma head, but without the cold air support. We should get a very nice washing of rain, and localized flooding in areas, but I don't see more than a light dusting of snow if at all. I am not sure if the surface is going to cooperate with the cooling. I see it in the middle atmosphere, but it seems the lower levels will see the surge of warm moist air.

I will say one thing. I am certainly looking forward to this storm again in the next 42 days. It will not go well for many.
---------------------
Scott,

This is such a strong storm that I think it will snow on the back side. The models all say we will be down to below freezing Sunday morning. So, we will see.

Yes, the April version could be more interesting for severe weather potential.

Gary

*********
Gary

From here in Lawrence, I can see an onimous looking cloud that looks to be between here and KC. What's up with that? Somehting brewing?

Bill from Eudora

********

Bill,

The showers already moved by you(which I'm sure you know). Thanks for checking in...a free preview of what's ahead this spring!

Jeremy

*********
Gary,

Hopefully with the warmer temps this week and wet roads from the rain, if it does snow, it won't build up on the roads. I've had enough driving in snow for this winter.

Jeff

*********

Jeff,

Don't give up your winter driving skills yet...March can still be snowy.

Jeremy

Thunder in Olathe?!

Gary,
How much snow could northwest Missouri see out of this storm? It looks like many winter storm watches and blizzard watches are already in effect for the plains. Could areas north of I-70 and Platte county get some decent snows out of this storm?
Devin

********
Sky's darkening considerably and we're getting thunder and lightning here in Basehor at 12:10pm.

*******

Chris,

Thanks for the report. A few showers and storms have developed on the leading edge of the warmer air and increased moisture. This is the type of thing Gary was looking for last night when he went with at 50% chance of showers today.

Jeremy

********
Thunder in Shawnee at 12:17p Such a nice spring sound.

**********

Dan,

Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

**********
Gary,
I work in Western Shawnee, Ks and it is raining out here. In fact it is pretty scary looking out here. The sky went from sunshine to dark sinster looking clouds! The wind has really picked up and you can hear thunder off in the distance. I also have caught a few lighting strikes off in the distance too. If I didn't know any better I saw that this was May instead of Feb. This is one wicked thunderstorm!!! I hope this isn't the beginning of a wild and dangerous thunderstorm and tornado season.

*********

Megan,

Thanks for the report. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. They should stay below severe levels.

Jeremy

*********
Hi Gary, I am glad we are going to see some snow. I am still hoping that the storm will push south at the last minute. then we could get one last snowfall of the season. It is too bad we did not have the cold air in place already,that would have been fun.

***********

Brent,

We may see a little snow out of this storm by Sat. Night or Sunday. Don't give up hope if you love snow...March is a long month.

Jeremy

********
This storm is very funny. I just read some data that suggests the storm is "getting streched out," whatver that means.

I also read that "the warm ir aloft is being forced so far northa head of the storm that when the upper low matures, the deep moisture will be gone." I agree with Gary 100% that the severe weather will more than likely be south of here. What is funny is last NWS was against SVR weather for here, then this morning they had it in their forecasts. I also noticed last night others were forecasting severe weather, but have now backed off.

The biggest concern I have is about all the dry air that may get wrapped around the upper low. As I suggested the other day, I think the severe weather outbreak to the south is going to be a big one. I hope that SPC will issue a HIGH RISK for down there, becasue I think it is going to be a major outbreak. To that end, their "slight risk," for here fits well.

As far as snow - well that is still the big question. At this point, my thinking is that the snow will be from the wrap around, and 2-3 inches is the best bet.

Later,
Brian

PS Even if this storm turns out not to be big for is, that is OK. I am pretty sure it is going to be a big storm!

**********

Brian,

This is a classic spring storm. Severe to the south and heavy snow to the north. Looks like KC will be in between. Some rain and thunderstorms and then a little snow to end the storm.

Jeremy

*********
just had a brief shower in leavenworth, but starting to look as if it may start and continue at any time.

*******

Jesse,

Most of the activity is now to your east. Isolated showers and storms are possible for about the next 90 minutes across parts of the area.

Jeremy

********
In KCK, we just had a quick thunderstorm for about 2 or 3 minutes. It was nice, but it sounds like it is just the start of things to come. Mark

********

Mark,

Thanks for the update. Keep an eye on LIVE ESP for the latest images.

Jeremy