*****************
In olathe it's getting black cloudy to the North. I think from that Fire.
--------------------
Andrew,

Yes, it is the smoke!

Gary

*****************
Gary,
I agree that this has been one of the longer below average periods during the winter season that we have had in awhile. However, the lowest temperature of the winter season has only been -1F. If there had been more consistent snow during this cold spell the overnight temperatures would have been lower than the paltry -1F. Looking back at winters in the 70s and 80s low temperatures of -10F or lower were not uncommon at all. However, these readings were taken at KCI when much of the surrounding areas were much more rural than they are today. At least the 12Z GFS gives us the potential for snow on Monday or Tuesday. I agree that the system appears disorganized right now, however.
Devin
------------------------------
Devin,

It has not been down to -10. I agree if we would have had more snow on the ground it could have happened. This is still a significant cold wave as it goes on and on.

Gary

*****************
Does it still look like the cold air will be in place for our end of February storm? I'd rather we get a good rain soaking instead of having to drive through snow packed roads. What is the average high for the end of this month anyway 40's?
---------------------
Jeremy,

If it really sets up similar to those other two events then I would expect a warm up ahead of the storm. So, let's see if another Arctic airmass builds in as the storm forms. It likely will.

Gary

********************
Gary..what happened to the big changes from the Feb 1 blog?

"I am expecting a much warmer trend as we move into the second week of February."

What shifted? Also...I think mid/late January, I said we would have a "unseasonable" cold stretch? [yes the term was wrong..and was corrected]

I think that Feb would be very cold, March will warm up a bit, but back to colder than average in April. And in April to expect some strong storms due to the temp gradients...[reprint from some of my previous blogs]

Much of this is derived from the LRC, believe it or not. I have taken to heart the ridge and the polar low, and looked also long range at the pattern cycling from the polar view of the vorts cycling around the globe.

Lets see if it holds up.
-------------------------
Scott,

The upper level flow is becoming more westerly from the Pacific, so last week I thought this would erode away the Arctic air. It is stronger than it has been at any time this season and so even though temperatures are warming and heights rising aloft we are still not seeing the Arctic air retreat. It could still happen and ruin our chance for snow on Monday?

Gary

******************
Since you've updated the 5-day graphic to show the precip chance at 50% on Monday instead of the earlier 30 or 40% chance and have lowered the high temps for Tuesday and Wed. by 10 degrees, it would appear that you think this storm might be "an event". What are the chances that you will again up the storm chance and possibly lower the ensuing temps for later next week? What do the tea leaves say? ;-)
-------------------------------
Frank,

As the Monday/Tuesday system moves by we think a surge of northern plains air will move in and this is why we dropped the highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Will we see any precipitation Monday? Still too early to tell.

Gary

*************
Gary,

The cold air certainly does appear here to stay. For those of us who enjoy a true winter, we're not complaining and are at least pleased to see a few chances for snow staying in the forecast.

Last week you mentioned that the arctic air would retreat, according to your theory. To quote a blog from Feburary first (one week ago), you said:
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Finally, the change I have been expecting. The sad part about knowing about the LRC is that I know what is likely to happen next. The breakthrough of the southern branch and Pacific flow. This is very highly likely going to happen and within 7 days. But, what does it mean? It means that the Arctic air is going to retreat within the next week. It just has to! I know the models have been holding on to the Arctic air, but it just doesn't fit. The pattern is about to deamplify and get boring for a while.

This is very good news for people with "cabin fever". I am expecting a much warmer trend as we move into the second week of February. But, you know what to expect later in the month? Yes, a return of the stormiest part of our pattern."

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

You said your theory calls for the arctic retreat and warmer trend, but it seems as though the arctic air is not in fact going to retreat anytime soon (as you mentioned in today's post), nor is a "much warmer trend" going to be actualized this upcoming second week of February.

How do you feel this dovetails with your theory?
--------------------------
Jake,

The theory really applies to what happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This is clearly going through a major change. But, I always say that different specific results are experienced at the surface each time through the cycle. And, this time, even though the upper flow is changing, it appears we are holding in the Arctic air near by. We thought this was possible. But, it hasn't happened yet. Let's see what happens next week. Right now it appears very cold until further notice.

Gary

*************
Hello Gary,
Do you think we will see accumulation Thur night into Fri? Any Sat.,
Everyone calling for a big one Sun thu Tue, it look like were gonna get hammered, How can it possible change!
Anne
---------------------------
Anne,

First of all, I don't see a "big one" for Sunday-Tuesday. It could still end up being more organized and then we would get hammered. But, there are many problems with this forecast. The biggest problem is that it is still many days away.

Gary

***************
Gary -

Wow. I am actually super fine with this weather. I think KC has been spoiled the last few years with the non-Winters.

A bit of perspective... My son's 1st birthday is this weekend. My mother came down a few days after he was born and she is from Wyoming. She could not believe the bulbs that were already coming out of the ground. Must of been around 2/12. I doubt that happens this year. :)
-----------------
Hank,

The ground is frozen solid, so I doubt it.

Gary

********************
Gary, I have had the very unfortunate luck of moving into our new house on January 12th. For the past 2 or 3 years, I have hardly ever had to use the furnance. Now, my furnance has hardly shut off. I love winter, but this cold is killing my gas bill. After the potential storm on Monday, will we be seeing any warming to give my furnance a break? Mark
--------------------
Mark,

There is still no sign of an end to the cold wave. As soon as it truly shows up I will announce it.

Gary

*******************
I know that this isn't really "weather" per se, but the fire you guys are having down there is unreal, I'm glad no one has gotten hurt at least as far as I know. I think what stunned me was the "cloud" of smoke that was covering the whole downtown and the shafts of "precipitation" coming from it, it truely looks like something from a disaster movie. Again I hope every one is safe and it is resolved soon.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (still cloudy) St. Joe!
--------------------------
Nick,

It was a very interesting day of fire and cold. Now, let's get some weather excitement.

Gary

*************
Gary I really hope we get two feet of snow sunday through tuesday we need a "real" heavy snow before the end of snow season Jerry in the northland.
--------------------
Jerry,

There is some hope for snow on Saturday, and maybe even Thursday night. Monday is still a bit too far away. And, the pattern is weird.

Gary

**************
Just wanted an update, is that fire still raging on or has it calmed down. Anymore of those tank cars blown up or at least caught fire?Has it grown any at all? If the sky was blue today and no clouds we could really see the smoke. Doubt it but I wonder if it made national headlines. Idont live near it but I was just curious. The way it was I think it has. Sorry, I know you're not a news anchor, helicopter captain, or a reporter, but you just seemed like the quickest person who could answer. Once again, I would just like and update.
-------------------
Alden,

The fire is still going on at this hour. Did you see the smoke that looked like a tornado?

Gary

**************
> There is still no sign of an end to the cold wave. As soon as it truly shows up I will announce it.

Well I, for one, will be waiting with a worm on my tongue.
.
.
.
You know...baited breath.

Sorry. An oldy but a goody. I think we'll probably know about the same time as you, Gary. But thanks. ;-)
--------------------
Frank,

You are so funny. I could of said that it will be over by April. Well, it better be anyway.

Gary

********
Gary,
We are heading for Texas this weekend for a couple weeks. Dallas area, Austin and San Antonio. Do you have good weather reports for those areas? I'm taking the laptop so can keep up with weather here and your blog.
Hoping for warmer things down that way. Am tired of the cold.
Ginger
----------------
Ginger,

It will be warmer there than here. There will likely be one strong cold front around Tuesday that should blast through there, but then you will have ups and downs and likely see some warmer days later next week down that way.

Gary

**********
Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!! Sitting at about 20 degrees with a North East wind this morning-wind was just enough earlier to give a bit of a bite to the air!!

First of all, thanks so much for showing the pictures last night-there are some grand parents and great grandparents who are thrilled beyond belief (not to mention a 7 and a 3 year old and thier parents!!!)-I can't even put it into words how awesome that is!!!

Awseome BLOG last night about the cold wave-it is really something to see that the upper levels have indeed changed (and again how the LRC is just spot on!!!!) but that cold air is just sitting here at the surface and about 4,000 feet up-amazing what a cold Central Canada and Northern US can do to our weather (and with Tuesday how we are always sitting right on the fence!!! No mystery why we get severe Thunder Storms!!!)

The next 7 days look to be really interesting and a real head ache to forecast-06Z GFS doesn't look too bad for Saturday night (esp. considering how dry it has been here the past several days and maybe our best chance at all snow) and the Monday/Tuesday looks-well tricky!!! Mositure and cold air-will we have both at the same time??? Will warm air punch in here Monday and give us rain then snow at the end? Stay tuned next week for As KC Winter Precipiation Turns... Sorry-I couldn't resist-at least I think?? you can see the moisture comming in off the Pacific another sure sign of the change in the pattern.

For sure, the next few days looks to be fun to track and see how it all plays out-if we get lucky, snow/winter precip. lovers could be real happy by next Wednesday!!! In the end, at least we look to get some moisture from the sky and the Lawrence Area needs it. I hope it is frozen, but I'll take even rain at this point.

Have a great day and thanks again for showing the pictures last night-Words can not really show/state the appreciation and describe the smiles it brought to family members!!! You and the team are Tight!!! (can't get away from my students lingo!!!)

Bill in Lawrence
--------------------
Bill,

You just wonder who started the term "tight". It sort of works though.

Yes, the next few days have some interesting snow chances to track. And, you are right. Monday the next Arctic surge is forecast to arrive during the passage of the Pacific wave (weak storm). If it is timed right then it could still snow. In the mean time, there is a chance tonight and again Saturday afternoon. Let's see how the new data looks.

Gary

*************
Hi Gary: I have a quick question regarding long range forcasts. How is it possible to predict weather several weeks in advance? You will predict a weather event, such as a snowstorm, 3 weeks before it actually occurs. How is this done? Do you look at weather events on the other side of the globe? How is it possible to forcast what will happen to the jet stream weeks in advance? I've always been fascinated about this and look forward to your response.
----------------
Kent,

I only know of one true way to do it where it is more than a guess. It is my theory, what we call the LRC for Lezak's Recurring Cycle. If you read the blog regularly over the next year, or look back to the past couple of October and Novembers in our archives then you will learn more about this. Basically, the weather pattern sets up in October and November and then begins cycling and doesn't fall apart until late summer. This is my theory. And, every year is unique. This year's pattern apparantly is in a 40 to 45 day cycle which means I believe the upper level pattern is cycling and repeating every 40 to 45 days (every year has a different cycle that you don't know until it has gone through it once). This is how we have been picking out these storm systems with some accuracy. I truly believe this is a major discovery. But, it has been difficult getting other meteorologists to believe it even when I can clearly show them that it is happening.

Gary

*****************
Gary:

It looks like the prognostication of the AccuWeather service a couple of weeks ago was pretty dead on regarding this long cold spell.

Tony
-----------------------
Troy,

Yes, that was a good forecast. Accu weather made a very bad first forecast for the winter which basically called for almost no cold. But, this is the nature of long range forecasting.

Gary