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Dear weather team i think it would be cool to see two feet of snow next weekend.What do you think?I am a snow lover and i am not looking forward to the severe weather season.keep up the great work.

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Brent,

How about just in your neighborhood:) I know some love winter...but after the recent stretch most are looking forward to spring. We will continue to track next weekend's storm for the potential of rain and snow.

Jeremy

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Yes, Yes, YES! I am so PSYCHED at the 5-day. Even if it's 20% off it'll be way better than it has been. I think it would be cool if we never saw another flake of snow. Ever. ;-)

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Frank,

Right now the weekend storm looks more wet and less snowy. That could easily change one way or the other though.

Jeremy

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I am happy to see a brief warm up.... but I am with Brent, lets see a big SNOW storm!! I am tired of the 5 inch wimpy storms.... ;-)

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Brian,

Next weekend will be interesting. At the very least it will silence a few more doubters of Gary's theory. Maybe a few more people will start to believe.

Jeremy

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Hey Jeremy!
Don't toy with my emotions! I have been waiting for this week since the first week of January! If your thoughts come to fruition, and we push the 60s, the big storm according to the LRC could be the big storm. And I don't mean snow. How do you view that opinion? Maybe the SPC could be involved?!?

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TW,

Looking at various computer models there is a chance of severe weather in parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and South with this next storm if everything plays out as-is. With the dynamical set-up of the weekend storm the first severe weather outbreak of the season is not out of the question for parts of the nation. Would that include KC...still too early to tell...but I am putting thunderstorms into the Saturday forecast.

This will be a fun storm to track this week. Did the LRC just add another believer?

Jeremy

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Good Morning Weather Team!!!

Sitting at about 14 here this morning in SW Lawrence under clear skies-it is time for it to warm up no doubt but I am giving one last tip of the hat to this cold spell-it was incredible for sure!!!! (Not that I would not like to see one more winter event....I know, I've got issues!!!)

No matter what type of sensible/surface weather occurs next weekend-too early to even really think about-I think it is very telling/amazing that the models are giving very similar solutions at the 500 ht. level to what occured in late November and even mid January-just awesome stuff-actually, it is not amazing when you think about how great the LRC truly is-the LRC is what is amazing-great stuff!!! Have a great day!!

Bill-breathing the last cold air of the cold wave in Lawrence

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Bill,

The LRC is amazing. We knew about this upcoming storm in December when the cycle was determined. The January storm around the 12-14th put the icing on the cake. We knew then a storm would occur around the 25th of Feb. We'll track the storm today and the rest of this week to see what type of precip. it will bring the area.

Jeremy

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Hi weather team, How far away will the cold air be when the storm gets here and is it possible that if enough cold air is here when the precipitation comes that we could see the Major winter storm that you predicted in your winter forecast?

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Brent,

The cold air will be somewhere in the Plains. It is still early, the details of this storm will be ironed out as the week goes on. The winter forecast has been almost right on this year. Temps are now average for the winter and snow total across the area averages out to around 20".

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
How big does this storm look to be for Kansas City next weekend? Is there any chance that it could be a major winter storm?

Jacob

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Jacob,

There is a chance...but I would lean more towards rain and then some snow. I think by early this week we should have a much better idea on the finer details(rain/snow...and then a couple days after that focus on amounts of precip.).

Jeremy

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Jeremy! I just checked the weather channel's website, and they are saying it will be 70 degrees on Friday! Tell me thats a possibility!!!

Jacob

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Jacob,

Look back at my last post and see how warm it was before the November 30 storm. This is the same part of the cycle. I'll leave it at that for now.

Jeremy

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Good luck this weekend, this is going to be a tough storm to diagnose. Powerful, but where will the rain/snow line if any, and how much of a weather maker will it be? Should be pretty intense with the temp/pressure gradients sure to exist.

Have fun. With winter ending soon, I will be taking a bit of a break and preparing for the severe season. Also, have to start my homework on the tropics.

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Scott,

I see the GFS drops the low center to 988mb after it passes KC. This looks to be a classic early spring storm. Severe weather in the warm sector and a snowstorm in the cold air. This will be fun...I just wish we knew it was coming more than 2 months out, ha, ha:)

Jeremy

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Jeremy,

I have a question that is more of curiousity than anything. When you accepted this job with KSHB were you informed about the LRC before you took the position, is it something that you were already familiar with, or did you find out about it after you were hired? Did you believe in Gary's theory when you first heard about it or were you sceptical of it at first. It is obvious that you believe in it now, I am just curious if you had any idea of it when you got here. He has a good theory if you ask me.

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Keri,

Gary's theory was mentioned to me when interviewing...but I did not know the nuts and bolts of it until after I was hired. The theory had no bearing on my decision to work here or not. The passion and dedication to being first in weather is what I liked the most. Here are my feelings on the theory... At first I took a wait and see approach because I wanted to see the theory in action. This winter has left no doubt in my mind that the theory works and could be studied formally to be proven.

After the November 30 storm occurred and the pattern was determined to be roughly 42 days. We talked about the Jan. 12 storm well in advance...and in the same breath said watch for another storm around February 25. How many other weather sources were able to do this without Gary's theory? That's my opinion but I encourage everyone to look at the theory and decide for themselves.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
This storm next weekend sure looks to have good dynamics and a strong flow of gulf moisture out ahead of the low. Looking at the 12Z GFS it would appear that we could get a decent soaking rain in the warm sector of the storm with maybe some snows on the backside? It would appear that the active pattern will continue for us in the extended with a good supply of cold air coming from the north again.
Devin

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Devin,

This storm is looking a lot like the November 30 storm. A big warm-up ahead of the storm, then thunderstorms and rain...then a transition to snow. Behind the storm we may have a week of below average to average temps. We'll keep tracking its development and let everyone know our thoughts this week.

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Thunderstorms would be nice to see! I am looking forward to it, personally I would like to see some more snow in St. Joe too, but my appetite for thunderstorm is getting higher and higher:)
The LRC is just amazing, it almost dosen't seem real that we "knew" about this storm since early Jan.!!!!!!
I quess severe weather season is right around the corner.
Nick in (slushy) St. Joe!!

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Nick,

I put some storms in the forecast for Saturday. Next weekend looks crazy! Thunderstorms and then maybe snow?

Jeremy

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I've got a question concerning the KCI total. Is it KCI's stats that go into the records? So for instance, you guys predicted 25" for the KC area for this winter, but KCI's only at 10". So even though everyone else has accumulated more over the winter, the records will only show that we got 10"?

I'm wondering about this as a part of another question. Does WeatherRate only look at the official stats (ie KCI) or do they also take into account the surrounding averages when they are choosing who's the most accurate? Because if they only used KCI, then your winter snow total prediction is a bit off, but if they use stats from various areas of the Metro, then you guys are spot on with your winter prediction!

I'm just wondering, because I know you guys are the best weather team in KC and so far you've had great predictions all winter long, even if KCI's stats don't show it. So, I'm just hoping you guys will maintain your reign as KC's Certified Most Accurate, because you really are!

~ Joy ~

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Joy,

Thanks for the question. Here is my take and I think this is Gary's too. The winter forecast is made for everyone in the viewing area. Not just a snapshot of one location or one person's backyard. With that said, I assume for the winter snow total that Gary will average the highest and lowest total across the viewing area. KCI may very well be the lowest total when all is said and done. And I think if that was done right now the snow average would be somewhere around 20". Of course we have about 4 more weeks of winter left and another storm on the horizon for this weekend.

So far Gary's winter forecast has been very accurate. Personally I don't know the ins and outs of Weather Rate, but we did finish first again in 2006. As I mentioned a few weeks ago my old station/market did not have forecasts rated by Weather Rate. So each night I would go to the other stations websites after my newscast to right down their forecast and then compare later. I still do that now when I have a chance(keep in mind my schedule isn't always evenings or mornings). And so far my numbers support that we have been beating the competition on a regular basis. I don't want to pass numbers and stuff like this along very often because I know some people want the blog to stick to just talking about the weather...so that's what I will try to do.

Hopefully this answers your question.

Jeremy

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How about some Thundersnow!!!

Bring it on!

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Brian,

Maybe I worded that wrong. Probably some rain/thunderstorms...then a transition to a mix and then snow. Although I don't want to rule anything out with this upcoming storm!

Jeremy