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6:15 AM it is snowing
The NBC Action News Weather team is tracking a fairly large area of rather light snow this morning. There are some bands moving across which are heavy enough to cause a dusting, possibly up to 1/2" or so in a few spots. The moisture content in the snow is extremely low so it will be quite fluffy with liquid to snow ratios of around 25 to 1. So, .01" liquid could be 1/4 inch of snow.
Big changes are in the forecast for next week, but the pattern may still be a bit wild over the next two to three weeks. We are expecting a rather big storm in the region around the and of the month from February 25th to March 1st.
Gary and the NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM
Posted by at February 15, 2007 6:26 AM
When you say a big storm, do you mean a snowstorm or the more traditional spring thunderstorm?
Also wondering what your prediction is for the 2007 tornado season here. From what I'm reading on the storm chaser forums, the uber-geeks are predicting a severe year based on historical trends and other assorted mysterious data. I don't follow a lot of the technical jargon very well but it sounds like they know what they're talking about.
The storm for later this month could be anything from rain to snow to ice.
We have a severe weather special coming up in March and also a severe weather special insert in the KC Star coming up too. This will talk about what Gary is expecting this spring in terms of severe weather. We will make sure to keep all bloggers updated on these specials.
Posted by: Pat at February 15, 2007 7:07 AM
Gary, once again we up north from Platte city north are getting missed again. Mike in Dekalb
You probably did at least have a few snowflakes coming down. There has only been a very light dusting down here.
Posted by: Michael at February 15, 2007 8:13 AM
Could you please let me know a bit more about the forecast for Friday night? I am planning on driving to Columbia and am wondering if I should cancel the trip.
Right now it doesn't look bad. Maybe some snow showers but this does not look like a big snowstorm at the moment. Hopefully this helps...but the decision is up to you.
Posted by: Debi at February 15, 2007 9:28 AM
I work in Iola and I can't tell you all the different farmers that are VERY concerned about the storm on the 24th-25th. Apparently, the Farmers Almanac has called for some 20+ inch snowfall during that storm. I have been hearing about this from them for weeks now and have been anxiously awaiting the model runs to start showing the storm. Well, I don't have to tell you that the GFS is showing a whopper of a storm in the Midwest that weekend. I am just amazed that this "might" actually happen. There are already bets taking place here at my workplace on whether or not this will happen. This is fascinating to me!! Thanks for this format for discussion. You guys are the greatest.
First off...outside of gardening tips or other non-weather related things I personally believe nothing in the farmers almanac. The possible storm around the 25th we have been talking about has been based off Gary's theory. I'd be willing to bet the farmer's almanac did not predict the recent cold wave which is now 30+ days for the region. Once in a while the farmers almanac will hit a storm and people will point to that and say that book is great. If you truely follow things it is a gimic more than something to live by when it comes to weather forecasting. Sorry about the rant:)
Nonetheless, this may be the time that both the almanac and Gary's theory are right for the same storm:)
Posted by: Mike at February 15, 2007 9:32 AM
You make me laugh. I think you are a perfect addition to the team. I love your honesty and your confidence in your abilities and the LRC. Just to set the record straight, I do not follow the almanac or believe in it. I don't even know where to find one to buy and read. I just thought that it was funny that it is taken so seriously around here. Thanks for your response above. Later.
Somtimes habits like following the farmer's almanac get passed down from generation to generation. While weather forecasting has a long way to go today...things are much more advanced than in the past.
I usually see the farmer's almanac by the tabloids in the grocery store...if that says anything:)
Posted by: Mike at February 15, 2007 9:58 AM
I know it's a still at least 10 days away but what's the weather team's gut feeling about the end of the month storm? Rain or snow? Snow days for teachers are fun but now we're getting awfully close to having school in June. That's no fun at all. NO MORE SNOW DAYS!!!
Still a little early to tell that...we are confident in a storm during that time frame though.
Posted by: Rod at February 15, 2007 10:08 AM
I have a flight out of KCI late tommorrow night to Nashville. Does it look like there will be any delays?
If the forecast remains as-is...there shouldn't be any weather related delays.
Posted by: CJ Shaffer at February 15, 2007 10:29 AM
I am anxious to hear more about the "big storm" too. I am scheduled to fly to California on Feb 26th for a business trip and am getting a bit worried. :)
Thanks again to the weather team! You guys are the best!
We are excited to see what the storm brings us too. Don't get overly worried yet...that's still 10 days away.
Posted by: Christi at February 15, 2007 11:04 AM
A day or two late on this, but did everyone see Brett during the NBC Nightly News on Tuesday night? They led that night's show with a story on the storm -- that by that time was in Ill., Indiana and Ohio. Anyway, during the story, when they were doing like a video montage, there was a clip of Brett on air with a snowfall-total graphic (the ruler in the snow). Brett is the man...takes the Polar Bear Plunge...makes the national newscast...AND gets to work with Meredith Hoenes! As Bill and his students would say, "tight."
Thanks, I almost fell off my couch when I popped up on Nightly. Thanks for the acknowledgement.
Posted by: Jay Coffelt at February 15, 2007 11:08 AM
Jeremy..quite onry this morning. Perfect addition..I can see we all will have some fun blogs in the future.
We need the late Feb storm to be on the 25th or 26th. I cant have this storm coming up around the 29-1st. That would be bad.
Make it so, onry one!
[If we can predict it, the next step is changing it!]
Can you tell how I feel about the farmer's almanac? On a side note...my wife and I debated whether or not onry was a word about 5 years ago. She heard me use it a few times and said, "that's not a word". I then showed it to her in a dictionary!
The models will likely continue to show a rainstorm one solution(like the 12Z GFS today), and then an ice/snow storm on another run. It will be fun to watch in the next 10-12 days.
Posted by: Scott at February 15, 2007 11:13 AM
My family is traveling to Omaha on Feb. 24 and returning to KC on Feb. 25. Will the end of the month storm affect us, or is it more likely to occur after the 25th? Thanks.
As Gary mentioned in a blog yesterday the storm should occur anywhere from the Feb. 25 to March 1.
Posted by: Nate at February 15, 2007 11:37 AM
Oh goodie...my wedding day is March 3 and we have a lot of out of town guests coming in on the 1st and the 2nd from IL (they would travel across 80 in Iowa) and then we are flying out for our honeymoon on the 5th -- do the models show the storm for earlier in the week (as in the end of February) or later in the week (as in March)-- also, what direction is it heading? Will be be hitting IA after leaving here?
We should have a much better idea by week. The first part of March is still 2 weeks away. I wouldn't worry yet.
Posted by: TJ at February 15, 2007 11:44 AM
It will cover a day or two. It will be 24-26th. The LRC is a bit more precise based on trending than you all are giving credit to.
As far as this little storm tomorrow..not seeing much from this one.
I'm not doubting the LRC...just staying on course with what Gary has mentioned. Around the 25th to the 1st.
Posted by: Scott at February 15, 2007 12:33 PM
Jeremy and Scott, I think the word you are trying to go for is "ornery" defined as
cantankerous: having a difficult and contrary disposition; "a cantankerous and venomous-tongued old lady"- Dorothy Sayers
Our spelling was off but the meaning was understood. Thanks for the correction...
Posted by: Kimberly at February 15, 2007 1:02 PM
Would it be possible to combine similar posts to this blog into one? So often I see the same post several times authored by different posters.
We will consider anything...but we do like the fact that everyone gets a chance to participate. We'll have to take this point up with Gary.
Posted by: Frank at February 15, 2007 1:41 PM
Hi weather team, I was wondering if we will see any accumulation from the possible snow Friday night. and what are the chances of the storm on the 25th being a winter storm as opposed to a rain storm?
We will look at Friday nights potential tonight at 10 PM.
On the 25th storm we don't even know if it will be there. So, rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or just cloudy. It is still a few days before we will have a decent idea.
Posted by: Brent at February 15, 2007 3:38 PM
Gary i would have to say you were pretty accurate with the last storm and you have been.Thanks for not feeding us a bunch of crap.Gary do you know a rosalind woody at washington she is my R.O.T.C instructor.I think she told you about me or about comeing to meet me keep the good work up.Thanks.
I do know Rosalind well. She has a pet named Johann who is Stormy's brother.
Posted by: Brent Hickman at February 15, 2007 3:59 PM
Hey Gary and team, Remember I posed the question of Gary's theory in relation to the moon cycle? Look at your calendar March 3. Anyway, got a kick out of Jeremy and the Farmers Almanac, hey somebody has to keep the coffee shops in business! Snowfall total, 23 inches snow, 3 inches ice/sleet. We are in north henry co. Later DD.
You are two inches shy of our forecast of 25 inches for the winter. KCI is still 17 inches shy.
Posted by: DD at February 15, 2007 4:16 PM
Dont mind me stomping my foot on the LRC precision. I know that you all cannot publically go out on the limb with a specific day, nor would it make sense to this far out. I guess my point is that the cycle is showing very well to exactly 42 days.
In calculating this out as to provide proof, I stand corrected. It is not exactly 42 days, but does vary a day or two between cycles. So... 2/25-3/1 is good guidence.
You are getting nervous about your trip. Maybe it will hit Oklahoma hard.
Posted by: Scott at February 15, 2007 4:30 PM
Brrr. Those wind chills today were COLD! Had to work outside, but thankfully the sun came out from behind the clouds every so often to warm (haha) me up. I found a story on wind chill and thought I would share.
Keep up the good work NBC Action Weather Team!
Posted by: Levi at February 15, 2007 5:17 PM
Oh man! I am supposed to be moving on the 24th. I'm starting to get REALLY nervous about it.
Don't get nervous. It should warm up big time before the storm hits.
Posted by: Kmiberly at February 15, 2007 8:13 PM
I enjoy watching your forcasts. I live in Ottawa, we got 1.25" of snow Tuesday morning. I watch the radar pretty close during snow storms, it changed over to sleet at about 10:30 and then from 11:15 to 1:15 we had very very little precip. at all. However on radar it looked like we were getting pretty much the same thing that Olathe was getting. Any idea as to why this happens, radar shows snow, but your not getting it on the ground. Then Tuesday evening we got between .25" and .5" of snow and it never did show anything on radar.
Thanks for you insight, snowplower
The moisture content in the snow by Tuesday evening was about a 25 to 1 ratio, so a little bit went a long way.
The band of snow over Olathe was really much heavier if you would have seen it on a higher resolution radar.
Posted by: Slade at February 15, 2007 11:35 PM
It's snowing in Lawrence and extremely windy. I love it.
Thanks for the report. If we see accumulating snow it won't be until this evening or tonight. Just a few flurries or snow showers this afternoon.
Posted by: Shawn at February 16, 2007 12:08 PM