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Gary, Team... saw the new graphics at 5 last night and thought they were great. When my wife saw them, and saw all the activity, she commented you must be going ga-ga with a new 'toy' AND all this weather activity! Doesn't get much better for a meteorologist than that! We know you like it exciting!

Have a great weekend all! - mike t.

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Mike,

The new tool will be very useful not only now...but when severe weather arrives close to home. It should be fun this weekend.

Jeremy

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Gary and Jeremy:

Just a quick update-we recieved close to 3/4 of an inch of rain from this first band-very beneficial rains for this area-had some run off so great news for the ponds and lakes!!

Ok, what is up with the 12Z NAM-at 15Z is the ULL is close to Nevada, Missouri; at 18Z it drops down into the Oklahoma-Kansas border; then at 21Z it races almost due North and it is right on top of Des Moines Iowa-is my model site not loading right or is this kind of funky or am I just not seeing this correctly?? That is kind of a crazy track....

Thanks for the updates on the blog and have a great day!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thanks for the rain report! You should be quiet for a few hours before more showers/storms arrive by afternoon.

Jeremy

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Hi, If the storm tracks south around springfield how much snow could we get? and it seems like it keeps going a little south every day. I woke up with the thunderstorms last night and there is .4 inches in my raingage. I hope it tracks south!

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Brent,

Thanks for the rain report! The thunderstorms were great! Nothing severe...just some good rain and thunder.

Some snow is still on the way for tomorrow...but the focus thru this afternoon is on the very small chance of severe weather.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:

Sorry to bother you, but I'm trying to learn more about thunder storm development and noticed something-looks like on satelite a line is trying to develop just East of Salina-I noticed there is a pretty decent dew point temp. descrpency between Emporia (52) and central Kansas at 38. Looks like that line is trying to form in that dry line. It also appears that we are going have thicker clouds move in ahead of it-interesting to watch.

On another note, it appears on satelite that this storm is getting kind of stretched out some what with the heavy mosisture being way out ahead of it.

Thanks for reading-not the best time to be trying to figure things out-good luck today and have a good one

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

I will answer this one for Jeremy. Then I am taking a little break.

Look at the watervapor loop. you can see the upper low forming in Oklahoma. It is way down there. There is a line of enhanced clouds but no development over central Kansas. It just isn't unstable enough yet. And, I agree with you about the upper low doing strange things on this mornings NAM. We will see. I doubt the NAM had the right idea this morning.

Gary

Gary:

I just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to answer my questions and helping me out to learn-it is greatly appreciated!!!! This is going to be a fascinating day to watch/track!!!!

Get some rest this morning-you and all the team!!!! You for sure desrve it!!

Thanks again

Bill in Lawrence

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The storm is digging? How can that be?

LOL!

Always trust the LRC and longwaves! Throw the models out!

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Scott,

You should be the PR rep. for Gary and the LRC!

Jeremy

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Hello Jeremy,
Just wondering the snow moving in late tonight into tomorrow, how many hour of snow are we looking? whats the time window?
thanks
Anne

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Anne,

The changeover should occur tonight...how much precip. wraps around is the big question. We feel it will snow but are not quite sure how long and at what intensity. This evening we'll focus on the snow chances. NW MO and NE KS will see the most snow...where the Advisories are in effect.

Jeremy

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Good morning
When i got up this moreing my weather station screen had 0.51 in of rain in the rain gauge.You guys keep up the good work.

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Brent,

Thanks for the report. We should see another 0.25-0.50" today.

Jeremy

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Yeah, what is up with the 12z run of the NAM. It appears to be off by about 12 hours. Any thoughts?

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The NCEP site has been acting strange lately. You have to hit refresh several times to get things to reload. It has been posting maps from the previous runs when the new stuff first comes out. Hopefully it is fixed soon.

Jeremy

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Hello weather team, The NWS is talking about possible tornadoes. When do you expect the next round of t-storms to affect us?

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Ben,

The threat of tornadoes is well west of KC. If we stay cloudy today the threat of severe weather is basically zero.

SW of KC by an hour or two stand a little better chance of a severe storm or two.

Jeremy

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Jeremy-
Are you guys worried about the dryline that's developing in Kansas?
Phillip

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Phillip,

I don't think the best moisture, lift, and instability reach our area. The chance of severe storms is very small today.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
They just issued a tornado watch just to the west of KC. Do you think they are going to issue one for us in KC?
Deb

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Deb,

If it stays cloudy the chance of severe weather in the metro is very small to zero.

Jeremy

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Weather team:

SPC just hoisted a red box for eastern and central KS...the current temp in TOP is 47 with a Dp of 45...our current temp is setting at 43 and Dp is 41...not very much difference...I am a little concerned with the track of the ULL and the positioning of the triple point from the KC area northward...if the models bring it over the KC metro or a little further north than the Triple Point would be very near to the 41 viewing area and our severe chances increase...if the ULL digs a little further south, as the LRC would suggest, we could possibly be looking at blizzard conditions from the KC metro northward....I am over analyzing this or am I onto something here?

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Corey,

It looks like just some rain and thunderstorms in most of the area. From Emporia to the S & SW there is a better chance of severe weather(this is where there has been some sunshine).

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
It looks like the SPC keeps moving the area of slight risk for severe weather further north. Is our risk increasing?

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Matt,

We still think the risk for KC is very small. The best chance of severe storms is from Emporia and point south and west.

Jeremy

Just an update on the LRC cycle in western Minnesota. Right now the snow is coming down, thunder and lightning at 1:00 a.m. sleet after into this morning. Snow started about 9:30a.m.
This is what I have on the LRC right now in our area.
Nov. 21-24 very warm--Jan. 3-10 much above temps.
Nov. 28 1/2" rain --Jan.14th 8" snow just south of us.
Dec.9th much above temps.--Jan 22 very warm
Dec.31st 1" rain -- Feb. 6th 5" snow
Jan. 14 8" snow -- Feb. 24th snow today
Jan. 3-10 above temps --Feb 19-21st above temps
That's it for now from Minnesota.
Take care and enjoy the weather.
Rod

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I would like a good old fashion thunderstorm. Heavy rain, thunder, lightening. That is all I want. The severe part of it can stay west of here.

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Keri,

Did you sleep through the storms this morning? None were severe, but otherwise as you described.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:

Just me again-man, sometimes I have to take a step back and not worry about precip types and just look at the weather: the latest infrared satilite is just incredible-this thing really looks like it is beginning to wrap up-mother nature and the weather in the plains is just an amazing amazing thing!!!

Oh I looked at Goodland Kansas' latest observations: heavy snow with North winds at 45 MPH gusting to 52-wow-unfortunately, they have reports of people stranded on I-70 between Limon and Goodland-terrible deal. Western and Central Kansas (funnel cloud reported by Salina) are really getting some weather today!!

Man that satelite view-just awesome!!!!

Take care

Bill in total awe again of Mother Nature in Lawrence

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Bill,

There's a few counties in Kansas that are in Blizzard Warnings and Tornado Watches! That is crazy!

Jeremy

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Hey Jeremy

I am in central MO today and have plans to be at the Lake of the Ozarks this afternoon and tonight. Is there any chance of the thunderstorms at the Lake this evening having any hail or strong winds tonight?

Jason

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Jason,

Lake of the Ozarks is on the border of a slight risk. Your odds are pretty good that there will not be severe storms. It will still be windy with some showers and storms around though.

Jeremy

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The sun is starting to peek through in Gardner right now! We've had more than 1/2 an inch of rain thus far. With the sun peeking out, will that start to increase our chances for thunderstorms?

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Erin,

The more sunshine the better the chance of storm reaching severe levels. Sunshine helps to de-stabilize the atmosphere.

There is now a severe thunderstorm warning in Woodson county Kansas.

Jeremy

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This storm is trying to fool us. Look at the enhanced IR for the region in a loop. I see two surface lows. One witch seems like to original that is in SW OK, and seems to be the stronger one, but then you also have the one near Wichita. If you look at the NAM for tonight, on the MSLP, it shows the two low pressures. I remember reading in the SPC notes that this could happen...Fujiwata effect [is that what it is called?]. Because of this, this is what weakens this storm so fast after it passes by. Much like hurricanes, the thought is when two merge they get stronger, but in fact they weaken and circle around a central point. Same with this storm. Two lows begin circling a common point and falls apart quite a bit in the next 48 hrs.

That being said, this is a wonderful storm to study, and hate to see it blow itself apart, but just got too strong. I wonder what will happen now with the two surface lows. Should be interesting.

Team?
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Scott,

This is fascinating. The latest Nam does what this mornings did which is redeveloping the upper low north of us by morning. I hope it ends up staying together and tracks just southeast of us. This is more likely and we would certainly see some snow.

Gary

Jeremy:

It is absolutely crazy!!! The weather here can be so benin but man when she sets her mind to it, Mother Nature can throw out some crazy/incredible stuff here!! It has been a while since we have been this active as we have been this winter-this storm is like something you read about in the Sod and Stubble and Laura Ingle Wilder books-just incredible weather!!!

Take care

Bill In Lawrence

Oh, I nothiced there is quite the dry line developing in Central Oklahoma.

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Hi Jeremy, The skies are getting much lighter is looks as though it might turn a little sunny. I noticed that there are some individual thunderstorms down in southeast Kansas ,Is there any chance of those coming up towards us?

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Brent,

The clouds are breaking up a bit just SW of the metro. Will this last? That's the big question. The severe storms to the south are moving north/northeast. If this trend continues AND the storms hold together moving into a more stable airmass, then some warnings may be issued for the viewing area. The area that MAY see an isolated severe storm is two is still likely to be SW of KC.

Jeremy

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There is just an awesome rainbow right now outside my house in Blue Springs... I took a picture, but I am not sure how good it looks...I will try and send it to you guys.

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Brian,

Awesome! See what a little sun will do...help some strong storms turn severe and also produce rainbows!

Jeremy