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I wont ask about major details--yet--. But, it looks like the Low is just South of us according to the GFS 500mb? It does need to slow down,a lot, so we can have some good precipitation. I wont like just showers then a dry slot.Im a type of person who likes snow, rain. But mainly snow. What does concern me though is if I've only had 11inches of snow the whole winter (wicth Im STILL waiting for the 25 you said we were sopposed to have) wont that mean I'll only have 11inches of rain the whole season of Spring/Summer too? That really concerns me. By the way, when will\are you going to inform us about the up coming Spring/Summer season, and when will your severe weather packlet thingy come out in the KC Star?I'm really looking forwards to them.
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Alden,

No, look at all of the precipitation you had with some December rain events that weren't snow. And, the sleet storm was quite wet. So, just because areas north had less snow, so far, it was still not a dry winter.

And, I did get your email. I will respond later.

Gary

*************
So are you getting fired up for the April 8th-9th system yet?
-----------------
Jake,

And all of the others in between.

Gary

********************
Again you theory is right on schedule. Tracking the storms should be very interesting. Just one question Gary, are you seeing colder air again by next week? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Yes, but will it be Arctic? It might be. It is very cold across northwest Canada.

Gary

************
I think the models are fooling us just a bit. I expect to see this dig like it did in Nov. Additionally, I think this will be a two or three part storm as it blends in with the reinforcements following.. Refer to your Dec. 1st blog entry. Change the days, and I can see the same events. Great.
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Scott,

The ECMWF and UKMET lean in this direction.

Gary

***************
Even the NWS has a hint and some concern...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=sgf&storyid=6030&source=0
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Scott,

But, the question is will it be 53 degrees with solid rain and thunderstorms, or will it be 73 degrees with severe weather. Since it is February I lean towards an occlusion and the warm sector being well south of us. Otherwise I am working all weekend.

Gary

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So there is going to be two storms? I hope one of them brings us a big snowstorm! All the snow in my yard has melted. I know it is hard to tell so early but do you think there will be some cold air returning to the area, and if so how cold? thanks
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Brent,

We will likely have two or three more chances for snow. It isn't over yet.

Gary

**************
Hi Gary,
I'm a big fan of yours and your LRC and I was wondering what you think spring holds for us. Do you think we are in for an active severe weather season? Thunderstorms are my favorite type of weather and I love Tornado Season. Don't worry I won't hold you to a specific seasonal forecast, Just maybe a trend of what you think it will be. Keep up the good work Gary!
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Jonathan,

I think it will be somewhat wet. So, does this mean a lot of severe weather, probably, but certainly a lot of thunderstorms. More than the past few years.

Gary

************
Gary I am heading to st louis on saturday and goin back to KC on Sunday early afternoon what do you think ..... Jerry in the norhland
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Jerry,

It is too early to tell.

Gary

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Gary-

Any insight into the weather for March 1-4? We have attendees coming in from 35 states for a big event in Kansas City. Would love to know what your prediction is. Thanks!
-----------------------
V,

There could be a storm around the 1st. But, let's look at it later in the week.

Gary

*******************
We will have to see when we get closer, but I don't see this powerful storm occluding. Looking at the GFS 132hr 10m MSLP, it looks almost perfect for the warm front coming up and slicing across MO, with the cold front coming down the back side? Am I reading this wrong? It also looks like this thing deepens strongly in KS. This is a monster...look at the baroclinic potential! Should create some nice lift. I think this is going to come in just S of KC, but I am losing faith in the cold air with this storm, but I see it coming in right behind it. The temp contracts should be strong as well. Might be an early start for Shawn/Sean?
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Scott,

I will be rather shocked if the warm sector comes close to us. The only way is if the upper low is in Nebraska. Otherwise I expect an occlusion and a nearly vertically stacked system which could cut off the warm air and keep it closer to Texas. But, it is only Monday, so we will see.

Gary

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Gary, just a thought from one of the natives. I know we can have big snowstorms in March but the days are getting longer and that means extended periods of arctic air become less likely! I won't ask about snowfall predictions a week ahead of time, but how about a prediction on our first day in the 70's? 55 degrees and lovin it in Olathe. Peace, Greg.
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Greg,

There is a chance this week of us bumping to 70 degrees, otherwise within three weeks it will happen.

Gary

************
Today i saw a partial rainbow in clear blue sky.

Do you have any meteorological explanation for this?

- jeff
-----------------------
Jeff,

Either someone turned on the sprinklers, or you may have seen a sun dog through some of the very thin cirrus clouds.

Gary

*******************
Looking at the stats from our cold spell got me to wondering...when was the last time KC had a daily high temperature remain in the single digits? During this recent cold spell we had 6 days during which the high was in the teens and only 1 came close to not getting out of the single digits, that was 11 degrees. Just curious. Could be a good trivia question?
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David,

I am checking right now. It was 9 degrees for a high on January 23rd, 2003. The low that day was 9 below with 2 inches of snow on the ground. I believe this was the last time! So, over 4 years ago.

Gary

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Gary,

I have seen you mention the ECMWF model. I have found a site that I believe shows it but am having a hard time reading it. To me the GFS is graphically designed better. Which site do you use to view it?

Thanks
-----------------------
Ryan,

You can actually see it at ECMWF.com. There are other sites as well. Just do a google search.

Gary

***************
Gary,

Realizing this is still only the middle of February, will there be any more extended cold spells ahead like the horrible last extended cold spell? Do you think there will be any below zero temps again?

If so, I'm moving to Florida!!! LOL!!

Thanks
Jeff
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Jeff,

Right now the Arctic airmass has retreated all the way up to northern Canada, but it is still there. The same pattern the last two times through the LRC brought the Arctic air down. So, for some reason, so far, the models are holding it to our north. So, I think we will get one more strong surge, but is it next week or a month from now?

Gary

********
Hey Gary,
It has been a long time since KC has appeared in in the SPC's Convective Outlook. We are in it on the 4-8 Day Experimental, which you and I obviously take with a grain of salt. It is however exciting to see signs of winter finally dropping by the wayside. I am looking forward to Spring! This week will be great, it's already well on its way!
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TW,

We will likely be too cold here for that much severe weather this weekend. It should become more obvious in a day or two.

Gary

*************
Well St. Joe is out of the "Ice Age" now and most of the snow is gone. Are you thinking then that the Dec.-Jan. part of the pattern may have been the "oddball" and if so then we could be in for a very cool late winter and spring? It will be fun this weekend to see what this storm does. Here's to hopeing for some more snow and a thundery spring:)
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (muddy) St. Joe!!
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Nick,

Everything is in transition now. Will the Arctic air up in northwest Canada just fade away, or will it make a run at us?

Gary

************
Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!! Sitting at about 34 currently. One small patch of the snow fort left and one patch of ice left in the back yard-SW winds here will conquer everytime!!! Yesterday was a beautifull day esp. since the winds died down some what by around noon. I'm not totally out of my mind-I do like warm weather as well!!!! LOL

Man, Saturday through next Wednesday look very exciting and it will be very exciting to follow and watch all this develop!!! It appears that the longer range modles are beginning to come into some consensus of how things will play out though there will be changes as the storm hasn't even really formed yet. I would guess that the first low would track somewhere between Joplin and Omaha with a good chance of it pretty much right over the top of my house LOL!! It is interesting that the latest EURO and GFS both are now showing a fairly vigourous secondary low forming and heading out into the plains on Monday-the Euro is further south but the second storm is now on the models. There will be different solutions between now and this weekend but it does look to be a fascinating 5 days beginning about Saturday. (As an aside, I wonder to myslef how far North the NAM will take this at first-the way it has gone this winter it will prob. start in Edmonton then by Friday it will be in line with the GFS/Euro!!! LOL)

Again, to me the most fascinating and exciting part about this is how it all fits with the LRC-there is no denying it!!! I went back and looked at last winter and there is no denying it!!! We had the "winter outbreak" and storm in December and then you fast forward to February 8th and the same set up at the 500 ht. is there-just in Feb. the upper low went further North that time through but it is there just like in December. This scenario about to play out, no matter what type of precip. we get in the end, is just more proof of the LRC-one just can't deny it-it is there!!!! It is even more exciting because you and the team can garner some of the credit you deserve for picking out the pattern and visualizing the LRC-I can't imagine the hours it takes to find it!!!! Awesome stuff!!!!

I'm still only looking at the 0Z and 12Z model runs-I'd go insane (still don't know how you do it!!) watching all four GFS runs right now-until about Thursday!!! Another fun event to follow and track made even better by tracking it here!! Have a great day-yes, I want one more winter storm, but I am looking forward to this warm week!!!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

It is a nice break from the stormy/cold month we just had. But, as you discussed the models are certainly converging on a stormy/cold scenario beginning this weekend. The GFS has been all over the place. But, look at the forecast map I posted yesterday and compare it to the 36 hour GFS I posted right before the November 30th storm. They are almost identical! Amazing.

Gary