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I know there are a lot of specifics involved but if you get a chance, can you explain what some of the ingredients were Saturday that led to the tornado? I am curious what meteorologists are looking for other than the warm unstable air, which was certainly not there Saturday. I am guessing a lot of it had to do with the wind shear.

As far as the storm this week, I guess I am willing to sacrifice another snow day added to the end of the school year. BUT, only if it's a really good snow!
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Rod,

Really everything was there except for low level thermodynamics. But, there was a thin ribbon of 50 degree dewpoints feeding the thunderstorms which was just enough besided the fact that it was so cold.

Gary

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Dear Gary
Could you help me set my barometer.It is callobrated at sea level right now And i know we are not at sea level.I Know we are about 900 some feet above sea level.It is located on oregon scientfic weather station.This is the cadet in rosalind R.O.T.C program at washington she told me she is going to bring you in so i can meet you sometime.keep up the good work.
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Brent,

Tell Roz hi from me, Stormy and Breezy.

You just need to set it to the current pressure reading at KCI airport. It should work!

Gary

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Are there any signs of artic air making a return to KC in the near future? I know the temperatures were extremely cold in Alaska and NW Canada recently and was wondering if that would make a push southward as a last cold snap before spring? Also, will this next storm have a little more cold air to work with than the last one?
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David,

There is Arctic air up there, but something is preventing it from making a surge south. If it is going to do it then the next 10 days will show it happening.

This next storm doesn't have a lot of cold air to work with. Right now it appears Nebraska and Iowa get another 5-10 inches. If we can just get this storm to be further south. Come on!

Gary

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Gary, you know my thoughts on this upcoming storm. It needs to fizzle, and be a drizzle storm. No snow, just a bust would be nice.

That being said, the LRC will not be my friend with this storm. I believe something will be going on, I will be focusing on this one, as I have something at stake. Sigh..I hate having to forecast..its sooo tough!
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Scott,

You may get your wish! Let's see how it evolves over the next two days. Here we go again.

Gary

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Gary,

Since we have had a more active winter this season, and it seems to be on going. Do you think this will be an active severe weather season? Do you think we will see normal or above normal precip. this spring? Do you think we can say the drought is over or will it return? On saturday evening i whatched the sky begin to clear around 5pm. I told my wife this is like the eye of a hurricane moving in. It was really fascinating to know the dry slot of the low move in right over us. One more thing. I hope we get one more big snow as well before it ends. I know there is alot of people that do not want any to see any more snow. I live near wyandotte co. lake. Like at Kci i have not had much snow.
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Rodney,

We can say the drought is long over. Will another one build in? Very UNLIKELY. This weather pattern should at the very least bring us average if not above average precipitation this spring.

Gary

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Gary,
With severe weather happening at such an early time for the season could this mean that we could have a very active season this year.
Thanks.
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Jeff,

I think it will be somewhat active, but the early start doesn't really mean anything. Last year we had the March and April outbreaks, but then almost nothing in May and June.

Gary

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Gary,
Sometimes I hear the term cold air funnel aloft. Is it possible that this cold air funnel just happen to come down to the ground on Saturday?

Dave
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Dave,

A cold air funnel is different than a true tornado. It is more like a landspout or waterspout and if it touches down then some minor damage is possible.

Gary

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Gary,
I am glad that this winter the overall pattern has been more favorable for precipitation events. We need to boost the soil moisture before the warm/hot season comes. Also, the infamous snow drought continues in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. This has actually been ongoing for many years in this area.
Devin
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Devin,

The lack of snow over this small area up north is baffling. Maybe it will be your turn next year.

Gary

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Hi Gary, I think one of you said that if this storm tracks further south we might get some snow? I hope it does, It seems like in every situation we always want the storm to track south to give us snow. I looked outside this morning and studied the ground closely it seems no snow fell here this morning although the radar showed it coming right over us. Was it aloft?
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Brent,

It was aloft this morning. It was so close to being a snowstorm, but then not even one flake.

Gary

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How does the upcoming storm fit into your theory?

I don't recall how long your theory's pattern is this year...according to it, which days in the past (in January and/or December) line up with the Wednesday storm according to your pattern theory?
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Jake,

We are in the late November to early December part of the pattern almost day to day. This next storm lines up and could very well track south of us, but this time the Arctic air is not coming down and the storm may track further north as a result. After this storm there is a very good chance of a warmer pattern, but then a wet storm would be due in within 10 days.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
I'm just curious if thunderstorms are a possibility with this upcoming storm. The NWS latest Hazardous weather outlook which was yesterday indicated thunderstorms were a possibility late wednesday and wednesday night and if sufficient moisture return was available then severe weather would be possible, but the latest convective outlooks for day 3, being wednesday have a slight risk far southwest of here. what do you think?
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Jonathan,

The timing of the storm is bad being in the morning, so the threat may be there, but it would likely be rather slim. As usual, let's see how we feel in a day or so.

Gary

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Hey Gary...

Nice job! That sound you hear is all of the KU fans that watch your weather (40%+?) changing channels after your "Go Sooners" comment. Keep it up!

aj
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AJ,

They are so cocky that they probably just sat there and said "yeah, like the Sooners have a chance".

Gary

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Snow lovers, never say never especially in March, but the clock's tickin'. Bring on spring baby! Peace out. Greg.
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Greg,

Yes, the clock is ticking. Our best chances were probably last weekend and this week.

Gary

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Gary,

Sorry. I have hexed the upcoming storm. I can't let it be big, as I have other things to do. Thus - I have put this storm on hold until further notice. We can try it again in the next cycle.

Thanks for understanding.

Signed - The LRC and the SMC.
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I hope for more snow! On sat. evening around 5:30? I went out and to the Southeast of us, I saw the most beautiful Anvil and overshooting top, in fact a classic one! Does a overshooting top usually mean a supercell?
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Well the snow lasted on the ground until today belive it or not, actually there are still some areas of snow left, our back deck for example! I'm glad we are having an active weather pattern right now(It takes SOME of the edge off of the stress of Calculus,... but I digress) What also was real impressive with this storm was the DUST that swept across TX, you could see it on the Satellite pictures!!!
I know that later on in the season these storms will be farther north, but IF they set up very similar in April and May then it could get interesting we will see.
Also what is your take on the new EF scale, do you think it is a good update? I read somewhere that it is too focused on our building styles and that it might not be a very good scientific scale since it limits itself in that way.
Thanks for your time.
Nick (getting back to his calc.) in (cool/calm) St. Joe!
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I want another snowstorm or two.... or three..... :-)

Want I really want is a nice cool Spring. I hate when it jumps into the dang 70's and even 80's in April. Can we keep the temps in the 50's and 60's?
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Gary, ya'll or some of the bloggers might enjoy this sight I use. This is great for a macro view and illistrates more of the dominant and long term features of the LRC, and helps trend the upcoming LRC events. Facinating to watch the GFS Sea Level Pressure product, the 500/850 zonal sheer and the 315K Potential.
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Gary,
All we need is a decent ridge to come back in the Pacific now. There is still a lot of arctic air in Canada and if the jet stream buckles it may turn colder. I would like to see some more snow before the season ends.
Devin
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Hey, Jeremy, you're from up north. My question to you is are the folks up there as passionate about the weather as we seem to be?
We get excited about storms of the wet and frozen kind. What do they get excited about?

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Thanks for the question. I think people everywhere get excited about the weather. It is something that always changes so it is a good converstation piece.

I remember people always wanting snow in the winter. Snowmobiling was huge in MN. This winter has been pretty cold compared to the past several winters in KS/MO, but nothing compared to this past winter in MN. There were several days that the high never made it above 0! KC only saw one morning LOW below 0 this winter. So I didn't mind this winter too much here...even though it was cold. In the summer severe weather also got people's attention in MN, but I don't remember many people wanting it.

Jeremy

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Gary and the Weather Team:

Good chilly morning to everyone!!! Sitting at about 26 this morning-just cold enough to let you know Old Man Winter is still hanging around-but man his grip is loose!!!!

Well, it doesn't really matter which model or which Z of the modle (my gosh the 6Z NAM is again at the North Pole LOL) you look at, later this week doesn't look real good for a snow lover. The latest 2 GFS runs kind of add salt to the wound by popping a weak but strengthening surface low to our south that misses us and gives southern Missouri and Kansas and then the Tennessee Valley some snow. I'm still holding out some wierd crazy hope because as I said yesterday (and as you stated last night) this looks to be our last shot at a true winter event. Not sure why I am holding out hope-the models are looking very similar to the December 8th cold shot(the main upper low is way North) so I should just let it go!! However, two things I wonder: 1. There is some pretty cold air in Central Canada right now-places like Edmonton and Saskatoon are forecasted to be almost 10 degrees below average this week-maybe the models are underdoing that somewhat??? 2. That southern weak surface low?? How many straws can I grasp.....

Whatever the case, one thing seems certain: Friday and Saturday look to be down right chilly compared to average-just like we had the first week of December-then the real warm up should begin. The LRC just rocks!!!!

Speaking of the LRC-I subscribe to two or three weather message boards and the talk on there is for a warm March and April due to the MJO, AO, and PNA-they are using so many indicees to forecast what you have stated would happen about a month ago-The LRC is just amazing and I still think all those indicees follow the LRC as well in some fashion-but man-what an awesome theory!!!! I just can't say that enough!!!

Have a great day-I'm still holding out some crazy wierd hope....why I don't really know...Hope you get to enjoy this nice day some!!!

Bill towel and straws in hand in Lawrence
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