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Jeremy,
You said that there is a possibility that we could have a severe weather outbreak or a blizzard next weekend? Looking at both possibilitys, if it snows, how much do you think right now? And if we get severe weather, how big of storms? I think I would rather take severe weather than snow, but I guess I will take what ever comes.

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Jacob,

There is really no way to put a total on the snow right now. The 18Z GFS would give us very little...probably under 1". But that is just one model and one model run. Keep in mind with severe weather, conditions have to be almost perfect for the storms to produce hail, tornadoes, etc. Those type of things are not possible to forecast this far out. I would just wait a day or two and see which way we are trending for the path of the low. If the low goes farther east...better chance of snow...farther west...better chance of storms.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
Is it just me or does there already look like a dry slot is going to be involved with this storm? The track would take the low northwest of KC allowing some dry air to wrap in near the low and on the backside. Also, with the active storm track in the Eastern Pacific the plains can not stay cold as easily with the zonal "westerly" flow. Maybe the cold air will come in quicker and northern Missouri could get some snow. It is still a long time away and the models will likely change. It will be exciting to monitor.
Devin

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Devin,

The dry slot is showing up on some models. But keep in mind things like dry slots, severe weather placement, rain/snow lines, etc. are almost impossible to forecast this far out. Right now we do know a strong storm will be in the region this weekend with a good chance of it starting out as rain. The next couple of days will be fun to see if the storms remains on roughly the same track.

Jeremy

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Hello, what doesn't make sense to me is if we are to have MAYBE a blizzard, then why 1"? I know it is still WAY to early to tell, but really. One model run, yea I can get that with it saying that but other than that, it just doesn't make any sense.

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Alden,

I know you love snow, but as of now the storm is tracking more to our west. This would lead to warmer temps and a lower chance of snow. A blizzard is possible somewhere in the Plains, but if I had to put money down right now I would say not in KC. Obviously we are days away from this event...so if you want snow things could change in your favor yet.

Jeremy

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I saw several people out and about in shorts today - I think they are a little over eager for spring! =)Near 70 degree temperatures seems like a dream.

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Marlina,

After the past 37 days, any temp above 50 would be great!

Jeremy

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Ok...I have done a bit of analysis. This Feb 25th storm is much closer to the Nov storm than the Jan storm. Gary was right in the previous blog, not all LRC cycles are equal. Though similar from a major feature perspective, something is different. This run looks much more like the models leading up to the Nov storm. I believe this one will hit nearly the same place..maybe a hair...like 50miles further north. I believe we will have q's of upward to 1.75. This will need to be watched. I don't think we will be dry slotted. Will we get the cold air in time???

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Scott,

Gary and I both thought this storm resembles the Nov. 30 storm more than the Jan 12-14. Something kind of interesting is the average high and low on November 30 compared to Feb. 25.

Novebmer 30: low 27 high 45
February 25: low 27 high 46

The climatology of these storms are almost identical! The sun angle is a little higher now versus Nov. 30 though.

Jeremy

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I'm not sure I'm a believer in the LRC, but it sure is fun to follow the commentary! Kudos to your team for making the blog part of your communication strategy.

Also, the typekey identifier thing still isn't working. Your post a comment header says you can sign in, but when you sign in there is a message saying "this site not yet enabled" or something like that.

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Rick,

Believing in something is up to each individual person. I was in the same spot a couple of months ago...but have seen the LRC in action and now swear by it.

I'm not sure if I understand the type key issue. I'll mention it to Gary or a web tech.

We are glad you like the blog! Thanks for posting your thoughts!

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
I can not believe how high the sun angle is during February. It seems like we gain daylight very quickly in January and February because we are fairly far to the south. I used to live in Minnesota and the daylight hours are much shorter there in January and February compared to here. But all of Minnesota is located north of 43N latitude so that obviously makes a huge difference!
Devin

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Devin,

Minnesota is so far north I now refer to it as the North Pole! Winters are too cold in MN...or I just lived there too long.

Jeremy

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Gary and Weather Team:

Good Morning to all of you!! Sitting at 41 degrees this morning, but at least the wind is not blowing-lol!!!! I've been blown back to Nebraska!!!! The winds of March have arrived a bit early!!!! It always amazes me how fast snow will go when you have 24 hours of temps. above freezing-going fast for sure!!!!

The strom this weekend is going to be fun to track-I'm really not concered about precip. types-do I want snow-of course-but, it is getting late in the season and we have had a good winter so if we don't get a good snow, I'll be ok with it (well pretty ok LOL) My main excitement with this is that the system was nailed by the LRC-that is what is the most exciting to me-awesome stuff for sure!!

As far as the storm itself, I would bet as warm as we are going to be, the main upper level low would track either over us or to our North-however, the other thing I am finding interesting and another feather for the LRC is that the models are beginning to hint at something popping up along the front after the initial storm passes-This is exactly what happened in late Novemebr and to some extent January. The LRC is just all over this and it is all there on the November 500 ht maps-man even the storm is forecasted to enter the US in about the same spot as November and also, you can see the height rises in the same places-awesome stuff for sure!!!

Have a great day-yesterday was awesome-little wind and warm-it was a beautifull day!! Thanks for reading and looking forward to following this next storm on the blog-much changes in the cards over the next 72 hours regarding the models and the storm but the LRC nailed this-just TIGHT!!!!!

Bill in Lawrence-well, with the wind, I am now passing over Beloit!!!!
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Bill,

Good observations. The storm for this weekend into next week is lining up almost exactly like the end of November. I will continue to be amazed how other meteorologists don't see this. It is there for them to observe. Anyway, remember in November we had the two main upper level systems with the second being the stronger one. It doesn't mean the second one will be the stronger part this time, but last nights 00z GFS hinted at this happenening. It is almost identical. So, the first system goes by and brings in the colder air and then the second system is licking its chops to bring more wintery precipitation. But, remember in November the City was sliced in half. Could it happen exactly the same way again?

Gary

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morning gary, team... based on the post to Bill (with the wind in lawrence!), i would posit that it can't set up exactly the same since you've said each storm is different even if the LRC predicts it. that said, KC always seems to be right on the line!

(anyway, my wife would still prefer this to hit the first week of march. not gonna happen, huh?)

this will be a fun storm to watch develop. meanwhile GO JAYHAWKS!! - mike t.
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Mike,

Exactly. But, it is often very similar. And the pattern that sets ups and repeats over and over again is also very similar. Sometimes very different observations occur near the surface, but at other times similar things happen. It is the pattern that we are in that is repsonsible for areas south of KCI airport always getting hit this season with a variety of set ups.

Now, what will this late February/early March version bring us? It should be a very strong storm.

Gary

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Gary,

this storm isn't looking good for my Saturday trip to Colorado. Is the potential for blizzards mainly in the plains to the West of KC?

Andrew
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Andrew,

Let's give this one more day to decide what the next two storm systems want to do. Then we can address the specifics.

Gary

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Gary,
I am beginning to really see the value in what you mentioned regarding the similarities/differences between different cycles. Why would this be? I think I am seeing a strong trend of the Feb and Nov cycles, and will wait to see if the Dec and March cycles are the same. All things being equal, this is hard to explain. If the patterns are the same, then how can this be? Could it be the relevant strength and location of the jet that makes the difference? Could we check to see if the Dec[ish] and Feb jet are in the same location and strength? It would make sense…as winter descended, the jet would be strengthening and descending, with Jan being the strongest part. Now it is on the retreat as we move closer to Spring, thus it may have retreated to the same spot/strength as Dec? How would we explain March, as it should be even further north, and mirror October?

Maybe this is how it looks –
Jan = Jan
Dec = Feb
Nov = Mar
Oct = April
Sept = May
Aug = June

I include August as I believe this is when the LRC starts, but it is too weak to notice. Same could be said for June when it nears it’s death…

What do you think? First step of the SMC v.3 ICV [Inter cycle varability]

Just an idea…
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Scott,

I have been thinking along these lines too, but perhaps it is flawed. Jeff Penner brought up a point that we often have one cycle that is a bit off, or weaker, due to the energy distribution being split, etc. So, as we go through this next cycle it would be three out of four that acted similarly. It is yet to be seen if the next one acts more like December and the first half of January. It is beginning to look like it will be more in line with the others.

Either way, can you believe this? It is amazing. The skeptiks out there are ready to blast the pattern at any turn. But, how can they?

Gary

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Good morning Gary. Yes the storm coming fits right into the LRC. Interesting though that as I was listiening to my weather radio this morning, the Topeka NWS always puts out their hazardous weather outlook. They mentioned the possibility of a strong storm with the potential for thunderstorms and the potential (I say this cautiously)of a major winter storm for this up coming weekend. I would prefer the rain at this point. I love snow but am getting worn out because of drivers who do not know how to drive on ice and snow. Keep up the good work, Michael/Topeka
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Mike,

We will get different solutions every day for a while. But, either way this is a big storm. How it will affect us is still uncertain.

Gary

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Gary,
As you have seen..this theory has many skeptics. And I understand why. With all the atmospheric relationships and complex manner in which they are related, as explained, the LRC seems very simplistic. It’s hard to get your head around the fact that it could be explained so simply. And, perhaps, it is not really as simple as it seems. I think your theory is far more powerful and prove-able when showing specific events/storms, opposed to major features and relative locations. Many times, you have been challenged on the pattern aspect of the LRC. As patterns shift a bit in location and intensity, this is a bit fuzzier to prove, thus the criticism of “making it fit.� What is harder to disagree with is the resulting storms and the how they affect a particular area. I think this is where most of your readers identify. I am one of those. Though I understand the bigger picture, I think your proof is along the second point. Much of this has to answer the “so-what?� question. What I mean by this is what is the effect or benefit of the LRC? To identify the major features of a pattern and its cycle is cool, but what does it mean? You have gone back and forth in explaining this part. At times, you embrace the result of specific storms per the LRC, and at other times, you discount it because “each time different surface results may occur�. This can cause confusion and diminish from the greater brilliance of the LRC. I know in your role, its going to be hard to commit to the micro focus of the cycle, as it seems to be so variable per your training. I would argue the point that the LRC hits the micro piece more often than not. Even down to the surface, many of these storms have hit the same time and time again, even in very near proximity to previous events. This was the initial basis of the first SMC concept in trying to trend this. I was able to trend it pretty well even as the LRC was showing its face for this year.

I know you are not ready to fully commit to the micro aspect, but you should consider further research/confidence in this aspect. I believe this is where you will fully realize the benefit of the LRC and the huge advantage it gives your team.
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Scott,

I agree with just about everything you just discussed, and this is why so many don't see it or want to see it. It is very complex, but also can be shown so easily on those 500 mb charts. You are correct in saying it is not just the major features. I know this. Even very minute parts of troughs and ridges are unique to that years pattern and when a storm returns or develops you can utilize our knowledge in so many ways. The "so what" factor is beoming more of an "oh my god it happened" factor as we apply the LRC to long and short range forecasts. Based on the theory the winter forecast worked out well. And, in the short term, we can tell if a storm fits 3 to 5 days out or if it will be a bit different when it comes across.

I am ready to commit to the micro scale aspect of the LRC. It just is so difficult and I don't have time.

When it comes to the skeptics I am amazed that they can't see the comparisons to the patterns of October to now! To you and me it is obvious. And, it is unique to only this season!

Gary

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On a side note..knowing the LRC, and looking at the recent GFS...I am not looking forward to traveling between the 24th and the 3rd! The GFS is not painting a favorable travel pattern! Sigh...and this is even better than a ski trip.

Bummer.
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Scott,

You never know. Let's see how it lines up.

Gary