************
Bring it on!!!

***************
Bring it on! Any chance that the "blizzard conditions" in the NWS's HWO predicted for North Central KS through Omaha could shift this way for Sunday?
---------------------------
Drew,

I very much doubt it. There is just no cold air near by. Now, this may not be the case next week when the cold air is near by and a second storm is showing up.

Gary

*************
Gary,

No! No, no. No more winter! I'm ready for Spring and severe-weather season. I've gotten excited over the possibility (NOAA SPC is talking about this weekend's storm bringing potential supercells) of seeing some good thunderstorms this weekend. But snow soon afterwards? Or a "major snow storm"? Ugh! My family was soooo happy to see our front lawn again. I'm hoping it won't turn white until Nov/Dec.

Oh well, if it happens it happens. Thanks for the fair warning.

Regards,

Kris Wells
Olathe, KS

*****************
Gary,

One question; if we get another arctic surge, how long will it last? Surely we can't have another 10 - 12 consecutive days below freezing this late in the winter! Or can we...

Kris Wells
Olathe, KS
------------------------------
Kris,

We have had 7 to 10 day March cold outbreaks in the past. So, it can happen. It is just barely showing up right now. Let's see how it looks in a few days.

Gary

**********
I to think the models are indicating a more winter like storm to follow the first storm. This will be an interesting group of storms to follow. I think everybody has relaxed with this mild trend and will need to be wary.

Keep up the good work.
----------------------------
Paul,

This is why I am trying to get everyone's mind set ready.

Gary

*******************
Oh my!! Stop the madness...I have taken down all my snowman and winter decor just so I can invite Spring into my life again..LOLOLOLOL!!! Of course mother nature will tease us...ughhh!!! Oh well what can we do other than deal with it. Keep us informed as you always do Gary....look forward to hearing what you have to say. Monica
------------------
Monica,

It is still just beginning to show up, but it would fit the LRC.

Gary

***************
Bring it on. Actually, I am sick of cold weather, but since I don't have a choice and you only predict, not create, I guess I'll take what we get. At least it's interesting and not just a week or two of COLD boring sunny days. That would be depressing....
----------------------
Sheree,

I agree. If it is going to turn cold again, then let's have some snow!

Gary

*****************
Gary,
I hope we get 15 inches of snow in the next 10 days!!!! later, ryan

************
Gary and Weather Team:

I'm Ready!!!! Bring it on!!! I may not have much good knowledge to BLOG about, but A. that most likely won't stop me (LOL) and B. I am excited as all get out to follow this!!! I'm strapped in-here we go!!!!

Hey, my shortest BLOG ever-I hear sighs of relief/amazement-no War and Peace....
Have a great evening!!!

Bill-towel is out-in Lawrence!!!
-------------------
Bill,

A short blog entry is fine! Now, in the morning when you analyze the data let's see what happens??? LOL

Gary

*****************
Cold? Is that what I hear we could have later? Goody. I LOVE the cold, as well as i do warm. I really am looking forward to this severe thunderstorm senario though. Will a lot of those storms be severe? I hope so. I always wish for really severe weather, but when it hits, I wish it missed us, and when it's gone, I wish it was here longer. I do, however, see the chance again for a major winter storm. How much? Well, I dont know if I was at your position right now. It may be only a 20% chance but to me that seems like a 120% chance! So we will have to wait and see. With the dry line, warm front, and cold front going to be there for the upcoming storm, it does look pretty severe for weather. I do know of a lake in Western KS that is almost 2-3feet lower because of lack of rain last year. How does it look for this year? More rain to fill the lake up back to full capacity? I hope so. And how much rain for this up coming storm now
-----------------------
Alden,

You are all over the place with excitement. I can't answer your questions at this moment. Maybe tomorrow these answers will present themselves.

Gary

*************
That would mean the groundhog is wrong!

*************
Say it isn't so. Dingle blasted fizzlesprung winter AAAAAAAAGH! No seriously AAAAAAAGH!
----------------
Walt,

It isn't so yet?

Gary

******************
So a winter regime would support your theory and a warmer (read: lack of winter precip events) in the week or so following the weekend storm would be in disagreement with your theory?
------------------
Jake,

Not necessarily. The pattern is still cycling and we are going into the part of the pattern that produced our biggest storm systems this season. Following each of these was a very cold stretch. How long it lasts is still of some debate. A few things in favor of it lasting a longer period is what we have just experienced after the January 12th set up. And, even after the November set up of this same pattern produced another 10 days of cold before warmer air moved in.

So, sort of yes! It would fit if it is very cold again. But, it is also March. The same pattern will also be cycling in April, May, June, and July. In July it won't be an Arctic outbreak.

We are seeing that some of the specifics do repeat over and over again. But, look what happened in December. Something strange happened to the Great Lakes mean trough. It was there, but it retreated enough north to allow for the warm up.

Gary

***********
That sounds great gary i love the snow iam not quite ready for the thunderstorms and severe weather yet.A major snowstorm or blizzard would be so awesome.You guys keep up the good work.That update just made my day.
-----------------------
Brent,

Well, get ready for thunderstorms because they are first.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
It seems like from reading some of these blog entries that people are tired of winter? Well, this winter has been much more typical in terms of temperatures than we have had in quite a few winters. Also, some areas have not really seen a lot of snow this winter. I will definitely be ready for more wintry excitement as we move into late February and early March.
Devin
-------------------------------
Devin,

Those areas that have not seen a lot of snow this winter are not done yet.

Gary

***************
Eleven hours of daylight and counting. I absolutley love this time of year! Knowing the battle is about to begin, and eventually the beauty of spring and all the new life it brings, WILL win out! 40 days and counting until opening day at the K! Peace, out. Greg.
-----------------
Greg,

Does this mean 40 more days of winter?

Gary

****************
Well, I guess I will come out from being a reader to a writer. I've been following the blog for the last month and attending LRC school in the archives.

I've been in the KC area for 13 years now and have followed you from the other station to greatness. Your weather TEAM is fantastic and continue to produce amazingly accurate forecasts.

After reading the comments, I had a thought. I think you need to make another cable channel. You can have one channel saying there is a 90% of rain and another channel for those who choose to hang on to the 10% it will not rain.

I did have a question. If we get 1-2 inches of rain, is our ground going to be able to absorb it all, or is it still partially frozen/saturated from the last big freeze/melt? Is there a potential of flooding this weekend?

Whew...I did it and yes, I will wear a hawaiian shirt on Thursday.

Ross
Overland Park, KS
--------------------
Ross,

Great job, and thank you so much! It is nice to hear from people that have watched our weathercasts for 13 years or even longer. The frozen/saturated ground truly could have an impact on the potential for flooding. If we get nearly 2 inches of rain I think flooding would become likely. But, will it rain this much. We will be tracking it closely as we move into the end of the week.

Gary

************
YES let it slam us!!!!!!
Let March ROAR in here like a massive white Lion!!!!!!!
But for now let's focus on the low for this weekend it is still looking fun even if it will mainly be wet! Rain, gusty winds and maye some rumbles of thunder!!!! and then maybe some "snow" desert next week;)
Nick in(still muddy) St. Joe!!!!!!!
-----------------
Nick,

I would like to order a blizzard for desert!.

Gary

***************
Hello Gary and the Weather Team... So, thunderstorms first, maybe some snow and another winter blast.. That's cool... As long as the weather is clear during the week of 5 - 10 March. That's when we'll be in St. Louis for my yearly NHL fix.
------------------
Bill,

It could be active, but maybe it will calm down by the 5th.

Gary

***********
Gary, Been keeping up with the weather blog.
We are in San Antonio and ready to head back north Thursday and Friday. Will we hit bad weather through Oklahoma? It's always been a rough state to travel through when weather can be bad????? We are loving the south.

Ginger
------------------
Ginger,

It looks like rain, but not until you get back here.

Gary

**********
Alright, I guess I should get my first blog off of my chest so here it is! I've been fascinated in weather since being scared by storms as a kid. Technology and weather alerting has become MUCH more precise since Dan Henry's days. :-) Anyway, as far as the upcoming stretch of weather, I'm anxious for it! Spring is okay but I do NOT like hot summer weather! I don't consider 20 degrees too cold at all. So if we can get another cold blast and even a good snow, I welcome it!

Hopefully in the future when storm systems are in the area I'll be able to post informative blogs of what's going on in my neighborhood in the Northland area. :-)

Keep up the great work Weather Team!
--------------------
Retro Rick,

I did get to work with Dan Henry when I first came to KC. He is a great man! Thanks for blogging and we look forward to your input.

Gary

************
Gary, I completely agree with the previous blogger about adding another cable channel. One channel with the actual forecast, and the other with the perfect mix of hot, cold, tepid, sunny, cloudy, rainy, icy, snowy, foggy, dry, damp, windy and calm forecast to suit everybody's taste! Here's hoping the farmers we depend on get the right mix of them all. Peace, out. Greg

************
I've heard rumors of a blizzard in the plains this weekend. Is there any truth to this? IF there could be a blizzard, where does it look to be, as of right now. Sorry, I missed you weather cast this evening if you've already gone over it :) I am looking forward to these thunderstorms this weekend!

David
---------------
David,

The blizzard will most likely be over northwest Kansas. But, we must watch this storm closely to see if it tracks further south.

Gary

************
Define: LRC, GFS, ECMWF, NWS, HWO, and NOAA SPC. I know what LOL and NHL and KC and the "K" are. Is this blog just for amatuer weather buffs who know the lingo? I watch the news on a different channel, but try to get your weather as my observation has been it is overall the most accurate.
-----------------
Cindy,

LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle, which stands for my weather pattern theory)

GFS is the United States computer model that extends out to 16 days in its forecast

NWS stands for National Weather Service

NOAA SPC stands for National Weather Service STORM PREDICTION CENTER

HWO.....I am not sure

I will try to explain these in more detail in each blog. Sometimes we forget.

And, try to watch our newscasts as they have dramatically improved over the past 10 years! But, if you switch for weather we appreciate that too.

Gary

**********
Gary,
I'd love to see a real blizzard. I can't say I've seen anything close to one since we moved here. I miss the old nor'easters back home.
It seems that when the major storms hit, the majority of them occur during February, March and April. Why is that? Is that just a better time of year to get in more moisture behind the systems?
Thanks for doing such a great job.
----------------
Matt,

April is wetter than March which is wetter than February on average. The wettest 30 stretch here in Kansas City however is from mid May to mid June. When it comes to winter storm systems December and January still do get more, but just not in recent years.

Gary

**************
We finally managed to get another game of basketball in, the first one since November. I was worried it would cool down too quickly but it stayed just warm enough to justify playing. I've really missed it but I think my back and knees could use a cold shot by next week. Bring on the snow.
-----------
Shawn,

Great weather again today! I should take you on one on one!

Gary

*************
Gary:

Good Morning to you sir and the Weather Team!!!! Clear crisp morning in SW Lawrence-temp. sitting at 28-great radiatonal cooling last night as our dew points were in the upper 20's and we had no wind-nice crisp morning!!!

A couple of observations I saw that I think/hope are correct and relevant?? Possibly??...

1. The water vapor satelite imagery shows the low crashing down from the NW Pacific-I think it is being driven south east by a ridge that has formed off the coast of Western Canada into the Gulf of Alaska-again, the LRC is spot on as both times a ridge developed in this area. Also, we still have about 36 hours or so before this gets on shore so the models will be very variable until then.

2. Looking at latest temperatures in Canada, there is still very cold air even for them in North Central Canada and the North West Territories (some minus 20's and 30's)-the arctic air has not retreated all the way to the pole as it did in mid December-this is also quite similar to mid-late November-again, the LRC nails it as have you and the team-this is all fitting so perfectlly with late November part of the cycle!!!

3. The models: I am not even close to qualified to even take a shot at them-the 0z suite of the GFS and EURO seem much different than before-the GFS digs the first storm into the Oklahoma pan handle then heads it due North East giving areas to our North and West a huge winter storm and even us some decent winter weather on the back side and the whole storm is mositure laden-the EURO still has it comming due east across central Kansas-the NAM has intitalized it along the Nebraska/Kansas Border heading East..both long range have kind of lost the secondary low on these runs-I think..I believe, again, conjecture from a hobbyist, that we are in the midst of the modle flip flop and the 0z runs tomorrow will prob. begin to trend back to the solution we have seen Monday-Tuesday.

Whatever the case, this is exciting-there are going to be changes to our weather next week for sure!! Again, in the end, the most exciting part is that these next 5 days again show the strength/greatness of the LRC-satelite, temps., surface observations, the comming very strong storm and resultant weather all fit perfectly-that is what is so exciting (well, yea-one more big snow would be exciting....)To me, no matter how this all plays out in the end, the LRC called it/nailed it-it is there for all to see-amazing/great stuff!!!!

Well, you were right-I have babbled incesently this morning LOL-Have a great day-I hope you and the team get to enjoy this nice weather-warm with lite winds (well by our standards)-just awesome!!! Take care

Bill in Lawrence
------------------
Bill,

The 00z GFS shows how close this is to being an all out blizzard here. It had about 2 inches of rain then a major snow right over us Sunday. But, the 06z came out with a reality check taking the storm just north of us. This is something to watch. Where will this track?

Gary

**********
Gary-

In regards to Cindy's post...The HWO is the Hazardous Weather Outlook
--------------
Bryan,

Thanks Bryan!

Gary

**************
It is Brian – from Overland Park. I often blog, and sometimes I say things that don’t come out right. LOL. Anyway, I have been a weather “nut� most of my life. I am amazed at your theory. I have lived here in Overland Park for nearly three years (it will going into my third year this summer.) My first summer here, I was bored with the weather. Then, I saw your winter forecast for 2005 and 2006. You talked about your theory. I have to admit, at first I thought it was just a way to justify when your forecasts were accurate. Don’t get me wrong, that is not a bad thing. But last year the cycle was so strange. There was hardly any snow, and the forecasts were very tricky.

Now, I have watched the other stations. In fact, Monday Night, I happen to catch all the stations in the market with their weather forecasts at 6pm (after yours) and it was all pretty much the same, although one channel said “this will not be a major snow event.� In their defense, the models did not show that either. What I like about your station is you try as hard as you can to be objective about the weather. As a weather “nut� I look forward to your weather discussions every day because they are detailed and very informative.

This year, has been more exciting. We have had some pretty good storms here in KC. Plus, these storms that may not have given us a major amount of “bad weather,� have impacted other areas of the country. What boggles my mind is they are always on cue. Now, I realize that between now and Saturday, things could change. That is weather. I think what people forget is that you are “forecasting� the weather. It is never exact, and it changes by the second. I know people that think if they do not get rain in their back yard, and then the forecast is wrong, if 30s are forecast and it is warmer, the forecast is wrong (and why they complain about it being a little warmer then forecast I am not sure.) There is even a debate that when you say 40% chance of rain, you are not wrong, because that means that SOMEBODY should get rain SOMEWHERE. The debate is that is not a good way of forecasting. I admit I am not big on percentages, but to most people I think it works. The major reason I am not big on percentages is because they mean so many different things to even each forecaster. But, you have to use what you think works.

I hope you have accurate documentation of this winters weather and your theory. I am serious. Even if the storms were a little off, it still follows your theory, and people cannot argue with what happened. Oh, I know – your forecast for the winter was for 25 inches of snow, and I know that KCI is the “official� measurement. But so far, most areas have seen anywhere from 15-20 inches of the white stuff. Long range forecasting is nearly impossible to be even 90% accurate because so many things change. I know guy back in Michigan thinks long range forecasts are worthless. However, your long range forecasting is a little different, not perfect – but at the same time it is based on something different.

I don’t mean to cut down the folks at the NWS because they have a tough job. But what I do not understand, and never have understood is why in many cases broadcast meteorologists will forecast so differently. I tend to read many sources for weather. What I find very interesting is how ACCU Weather and TWC are hardly ever on the same page as the NWS. Another forecaster that I know was not big on El Nino this past winter. They need to look at your theory, because there is something about it. I know you have spent years with this theory, and I really hope that you publish your findings. If you were to get your PhD, it would be a great dissertation. Even if this storm Saturday turns out to be a bust (which I doubt it will) this lines up with your theory. I just hope that more forecasters take a long hard look at it. You could become rich!

Oh by the way, your dogs are AWSOME. I happen to own a cat, but I am also a dog lover.

Best Regards.
Brian from Overland Park
------------------
Brian,

I got your email as well and I was going to respond and still may, but now you have posted this on the blog. Thank you for the kind words and great observations.

In your first paragraph you talked about my theory being just a way to justify our forecast. I think now you realize that this could never be my goal. I only share my theory with everyone because I believe it is happening and it is there for everyone to see. But, if it is truly a discovery then of course everyone will be skeptical. It is a brand new concept. You have noticed over the past few years that there is something to the theory. And you talked about last year's pattern being so complex. Every year is complex and it is fascinating to watch the cycle form. That I can't convince other meteorologists of this is fine with me. It just shows how much more work I must do. I have been a weather pattern meteorologist from early on, even when I was just learning about the weather in the 1960s and 1970s. This is where I have an extra insight over even the much smarter meteorologists out there.

When it comes to this winter and the forecast we made, I have always told our team that if 25 inches of snow falls great! But, if not it really won't bother me much. I just want to identify the pattern and pick out the cycle. We identify the pattern early on because, as I state every fall, there is a way to pick out the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges. We picked them out by early November. They are still there. El Nino has apparantly come and gone, other circulations and oscillations have gone through changes. But the mean "long term" longwaves are STILL THERE. This is my point. This is why Los Angeles continues to get missed all season long despite El Nino. This is why the long cold wave existed right where we picked it out months ago. And, the 25 inches has fallen in the viewing area.

Oh, it is likely much more complex than I make it out to be. But, I am a meteorologist who thorougly enjoys the daily/weekly/monthly changes. So, I can see the cycle better than others. And, I can show it in the 500 mb charts. It is obvious to me. And, a few others that I have convinced.

Thanks again Brian, and thank you for being part of our blog.

Gary

*************
Seems to me this Spring is going to be crazy weatherwise... I'm sure some folks are excited about it, but I'm not. Having said that, let's have a grand fianle for the winter, and I mean a GRAND one in KC!

************
Gary,
How could you not remember that HWO stands for the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the local NWS office.
----------------
Bill,

It was 5:30 AM and my mind went blank. Sorry! I had a stupid moment.

Gary

***********
Gary,
Take the cold air away! I want it to be warm and stormy, not cold and snowy! How big does this storm look to be? The snow one? I hope it goes away and we get WARM!!!

Jacob
-------------------
Jacob,

We know as we move through March that the warmer air will start winning these battles. So, just be patient. Your day is coming.

Gary

************
Hey Gary -

The new NAM takes the storm center from Oklahoma City to SOUTH of Kansas City on Sunday... Can we put some snow in the forecast for Saturday night/Sunday yet?
-----------------
Drew,

If the NAM is correct then it will likely snow. But, is it?

Gary

***************
Gary,
I do believe we are in for a major snow event on sunday, i think this storm is slowing down and shifting further south east before it heads north....
just a thought.
thanks ryan
------------------
Ryan,

It is fascinating how the weather works. Some meteorologists will rule this possibility out, but at this moment you better keep an open mind.

Gary

*************
When are you thinking that this last Arctic blast will begin and end? I apologize, but I have not been following the LRC dates closely enough to imply the dates of this part of the cycle. Thanks!
----------------
Katie,

Right now the Arctic air is stuck up in northern Canada. It almost for sure will come down, but when? I am not certain yet.

Gary

************************
Hi Gary:

Thanks for the kind words Gary. I thought I would post what I wrote on the blogg too. By the way, you easily could write a book on “weather patterns.� It would be awesome if you did. It is like anything else, others don’t want to see what you are talking about because either they did not come up with it, or it seems like a bunch of nonsense. It is not the norm, and it is a “theory,� to them. I am convinced there is something to it. I think if NWS were to at least think about your theory, and study it for a while, their forecasts might be more accurate. You know what I wonder – I wonder if perhaps NWS base their forecasts more on actual data then on theory. In other words, if they cannot see it, smell it, taste it – you know what I mean? If it is not by the book so to speak, then it cannot be true. I mean come on, a weather pattern that cycles like this? To others, it is just the normal weather pattern. But what they don’t seem to catch onto is that even as we go through the various cycles and it repeats, it still has a life of its own. What is very interesting about LRC is that each year it is different. I mean compared to last year, this year is amazing and “active.�

Have you ever thought about teaching at the collage level about your theory? If you did, I would audit the class just for the fun of it. I would love to do a paper on some specific topic related to weather. There are so many angles to go on that topic. I mean just the study of the atmosphere itself is so complex, but then you have climate, weather patterns, global warming, and many more areas of study. See the more I study weather, the more I see there is so much that goes into a forecast. You pull it off in 3:30 minutes with graphics and easy to understand lingo. However, all the study of the models (even though I am not big on the computer models, I am more of a believer in forecasting with your gut) there are so many things to consider. Then, you have to deal with the public. Just like with anything else, you cannot please everybody – that is just life. One last question, do you have any weather forms you could suggest with discussions of various storms and what not? I know of a few, but I thought you might know of some too.

I know this was long winded, but I had a lot to share. :-)

Thanks Gary! Look forward to a Stormy weekend!

Brian
------------------------
Brian,

I don't know of any other weather forums, and I personally am not that interested in it. I just don't have the time for them.

You are correct. Forecasting comes more from the gut feeling. This is where we have a big difference, at least I think so anyway. Thanks for the compliments and someday soon I will be writing a more in depth paper on my theory. They will all see this some day. I have laid it out there and for some of the reasons as you discussed they just refuse to see it. This is fine with us. As I always say it provides us with a huge advantage in forecasting.

Gary