KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Evolution of a storm.....very tricky

A very unique storm is setting up over the next 48 hours. It still has quite a few questions and all of the ingredients to create a major winter storm, but how will it impact us? Will it be rain and just a little bit of snow, rain and a lot of snow, or not much at all and just another Arctic front?

Problem #1: Warm air being pulled north as the storm develops. A surface low is likely going to form Sunday night over the Texas Panhandle. This will draw in Gulf of Mexico air and our temperatures will rise. This will make it too warm near the ground and through the lower 6,000 feet of the atmosphere by Sunday night.

Solution to problem #1: Another strong Arctic airmass is entering the United States and will ooze south and make it to Kansas and Missouri Monday night. And, the surface low will strengthen and move into Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday. This will pull the Arctic air into the wet storm.

Problem #2: Strength of the upper level storm. Most storm systems are driven by a strong upper level system. This is very different than most storm systems and it is tricky. The upper level storm develops and evolves as a series of upper level systems come across the west coast and gradually sag into a storm over the plains as they hit the developing baroclinic zone (a baroclinic zone is a tight area of temperature contrast, so when the Arctic airmass reaches the surging warm air we suddenly have a strong baroclinic zone for this storm to form on Monday).

Solution to problem #2: A storm in the upper levels strengthens right over Kansas and Oklahoma. I have found storm systems that form right near you are often the most impressive ones, but tricky because what happens if they don't quite get their act together? It appears this one does just in time.

The NAM model forecasts an 850 mb low to develop over western Kansas and then intensify and track into southern Missouri by Tuesday morning. By this time you can see that the warmer air that had been drawn into our region by Monday morning is wiped out and an entire cyclone has developed at most levels with moisture all over the place.

The third map is the 500 mb flow showing the just barely organized nature at this level as a trough swings through. This is where I have big concerns. The series of upper level systems that will form into that trough could end up evolving a bit further south or north. We just don't know for sure. A little difference will go a long way into deciding how long our winter weather part of this storm lasts.

Rain is a high likelihood Monday into Monday evening before it turns cold enough for snow. This is where I will leave you today. There are still a lot of uncertainties. I thought we would just let you see a few of them as this storm evolves. It is sort of developing "out of no where", so this is very complex. Someone could get a lot of snow out of this. We just haven't pinned down the exact area at this time. And, there may be some freezing rain or a mixture as well, but this should not be the main type from this storm. I firmly believe this is mostly a rain changing to snow event.

Jeremy will update later this evening after we get some more data! I have a couple of public appearances today. Have a great day!

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G-Man: Just wanted to take a minute to thank you for taking the time to post blogs as detailed as the one above. For those of us weather "nerds" who can't get enough info, especially on weekends, your blogs are very helpful.
Two questions: 1)The LRC you discussed at the "bloggers meeting" should begin to show another big storm around 2/25. Anything showing up yet? 2)How closely does the current event resemble the "storm" of 12/30 - 1/1 ?

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Craig,

Thanks for the positive comments on the blog. We strive to provide inside info to those that check us out. Gary is tied up most of today...so I will answer questions and update the blog later today.

The 25th is still a long way out...but there does appear to be some activity around us. I believe in Gary's theory after seeing it work this winter. So with that said, there should be a storm around KC near the 25th. Keep in mind the storms aren't always clones of earlier versions...but often have some of the same characteristics. Let's get through the storm this week before looking too far ahead. I would pose question two for Gary when he returns tonight or early Sunday.

Jeremy

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Common Snow. I'm trying to sneak out of town this week to take my daughters skiing in the Black Hills, but my boss decides to come into town Mon - Wed. However, big snow storm and he's sure to stay home. So can you make this happen? Let's get some positive snow vibes going... Shoot, if we're going to have this cold weather, regardless, then lets have some snow too. After next week though, I'm ready for spring.

Bill in Olathe

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Bill,

I don't think I've ever met so many people that love snow until I moved to KC. I think I got snowed out when I lived in Marquette, MI for one year. I can somewhat relate to the people of western New York. Lake effect snow occurred all the time in Marquette. The one year that I lived there the winter total was 272"!

We'll work on the snow so your boss stays home!

Jeremy

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Hello Jeremy,
First of all I want to start by saying you have done an excellent job,since your arrival in Kansas City, you make the best weather team complete. I was just wondering are you guys still think a major winter storm here in KC, what the chance of one here, and when you say "Major" winter storm what the difference between Just a winter storm and major winter storm I know snow,sleet, freezing rain and all that but how many inches of snow are considered major, I hope I did'nt confuse you
Thanks for the time
Anne

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Anne,

When I lived in MN & WI I always considered 'major' as 6"+ of snow. Freezing rain was pretty rare that far north.

Now that I'm in KC I would still consider 6"+ as major...but 2-3" plus some ice would also be major. This storm certainly has the potential to be major. I would expect the NWS to issue Winter Storm Watches tonight or Sunday morning.

So far KC has been great...I'm looking forward to getting my family out a bit more when it warms up this spring. My daughter LOVED being outside earlier this week when it was in the 50s.

Jeremy

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Well, it does seem tricky. But, all of the soultions seem to be there. It's like i said last night about the track, moisture, strength. Do you see what I am trying to say about all of that? This is EXCATLY what I mean. The temps dont seem to want to coperate, but the moisture is perfect. So is the track. But, this Artic Front needs to go to the Extreme if we want it major. I CAN see that happening. I will let you know more about what I mean later.

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Alden,

The models have been over doing temps the past several days. That is something we need them to continue to do...because many of the models have highs in the mid-40s on Sunday and into the 30s on Monday. A stronger upper level low would help our cause with this storm...but it is not as well defined as others this winter.

We'll continue to track the trends through the weekend. We are due for an area wide snow event.

Jeremy

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Hi,Gary
I really hope we don't get rain. Maybe the arctic air will move in earlier like sunday night? Do you think thats possible? I hope so. do you still think we could see some snow and if we do how much ,I know it is still to early to tell,but maybe you might give us a rough estimate. thanks

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Brent,

RIGHT NOW it looks like the storm will start out as rain in KC. Then transition over to snow later Monday. Tune in at 5 & 10pm tonight...we'll begin to talk about possible snow totals.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,

is this the type of storm, that, could produce huge amounts od SNOW? Does the new NAM have more snow? I think that is what i see.

Andy

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Andy,

The new NAM is warmer and holds off the changeover until later Monday. When we update our forecast later today I will likely put temps around 42-44 for Sunday and up the Monday temps to the mid-30s. This may be the storm that brings more snow to areas north of KC. Maybe the snow totals will finally start to even out a bit across the area for the winter.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
That latest NAM model run does look very warm to me. I think some of the models have been running a little warm lately. Do you really think Sunday will see the warmer temps aloft mix all the way to the ground? I hope the snow chance materalizes for those that have been missed this season.
Devin

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Devin,

The flow turns south tomorrow. As long as low clouds stay out of the area 40s should be realized. Keep in mind that would be an average day now. The averages are rising quickly this time of year.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:

Good Mid Morning!!! We have a temp. of about 24 today but the clouds are thinning fast!!

I would like to echoe waht the above bloggers have said: you are indeed a great addition to the KC weather market and do a fantastic job. Also, the amount of information you, Gary and the team share on the BLOG is just outstanding and I for one can't get enough!!! It is greatly appreciated!!

The storm: just my random thoughts, but I do not feel real good about this. It looks like there will be too much warm air with the greatest mositure and the GFS (and somewhat the NAM) for a couple of runs seems to have a fairly good dry slot at the 700 MB level. These situations can work out, but historically, when we have this many hoops to jump through, this area usually gets the "short straw". The story of Lawrence this year has been too far North or too far South and this time we look to be too far south-the 12Z runs just make me really nervous about the possibility of a good winter event. If I had to guess (and thank goodness I do not LOL) I would bet that from say Platte City(being the very southern edge) to Omaha east is in the best spot for a decent winter weather event. Just my random thoughts-and in the end, Douglas County needs the moisture so bad that the rain will be good even if I am going crazy for a good snow-take what Mother Nature gives you and say thanks!!!!

Things could for sure change and most likely will-still have what 6 more runs before now cast time-I am hoping but I just don't feel right about this. Thanks for reading and have a great day!!!

Bill down to one and half straws in Lawrence

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Bill,

The trend has been warmer with the storm...not colder. But there is plenty of cold air close by...so we will have to keep a close eye on the next couple of model runs to see if the warmer air trend continues. Right now it looks to start off as rain by early Monday.

Jeremy

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So many seem to be reading into the charts what they want, not what's really there. If I was more of a weather geek, I'd probably look at the same charts and want to see 70's, low humidity and copious amounts of sunshine. But alas, this ain't San Diego. So, I'll sit back and continue to be amused; INSIDE, where it's WARM. ;-)

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Frank,

Models like to change...so maybe we will see sunshine and 70s soon:)

Jeremy

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Hello, it's me again. Jeremy, Gary probaly knows more about this than you do? But, continuing on about what I was saying. If the models are over shooting the temps. they best keep doing it. This is what I mean with temputare. If/when the Artic Front comes through us, the temps to me would have to drop about 20-25 degrees from tomorrow's high, even though it's expected to be only 10 degrees.

Track: Lately evry storm that we have seen since January 12th has just about tracked north of us. BUT, since this storm is sopposed to form of Texas and then track into Arkansas, this gives us the chance of the more heavy snowfall, and mabye even more snow up North and West of Downtown KC.

Moisture: Everything about that seems to be fine. TONS of moisture always goes to these types of storms, but in the end, they seem to die. This is where the Upper Level Low can come in. Once this does not only will the storm get its moisture but it will get an extra kick of power. The Gulf Moisture--TO ME-- seems like it IS doing its job perfectly and should continue to do this for a very long time.

Does any of this make sense to you? I know everything I said could be complety wrong but this is just what I think. I would, however, like to know if any or atleast some of what I said is true. Sorry if this all sounds like some Humble Jumble of words. El Nino must be part of this. But,in the Spring/Summer season, maybe the EARTHS temputare will be below average and the Poloar Caps will expand by an inch :-)(?) But, this is my explantion for all of this. Maybe Gary's right, maybe I am thinking big.

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Alden,

I don't think moisture will be a problem with this storm. The problem may be a slow transition over to snow.

Jeremy

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Yep..just what I thought [per previous blog]..rain to snow. I mentioned that this is a dud type of event previously because I hate to see snow wasted on just rain. That being said...its coming together right now, but like the last time this kind of storm popped up, the ULL gets seperated, lags behind and stays NW, while the 850mb low drags south into Ark. We should get some snow out of it, but as usual, the further south..the better.

The Feb 25th storm is almost a lock. You all should start talking about it on the air now, and see how many people convert to your station when you can nail a storm 2 weeks out. This is the best shot in the LRC.

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Scott,

I mentioned to Gary back in January when the cycle came to the 'big' storm part of it that he needed to tell people to circle February 25 for a potential storm. We need to focus on the storm at hand before we look too far ahead to the 25th.

I'm looking forward to seeing the 18Z runs over the next 2 hours.

Jeremy

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Forgot to add...here is the official Scott forecast:

Monday morning, light rain turns to freezing rain. Around lunch time to mid afternoon, freezing rain to sleet.

Monday afternoon, temps condusive for snow and 850mb/1000mb saturates. Flurries begin around rush hour in the metro. Further north, 1 inch is already on the ground.

Monday night, large band of snow approaches from the NW along the polar front. Metro is in a Winter Storm Warning. At times, 1-2 inches of snow fall per hour.

Tuesday morning, snow tapers off mid morning. Cold.

Total accumulation - 6-8 inches for the metro.

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Scott,

If your snow total happens...there should be many happy snow lovers around the region.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:

Kids are entertained so what do I do-grade papers?? No!!! I look at every model I can and sit and hit refresh for the 18Z NAM!!!!

I'm so enthralled I looked at the 12Z UKMET-it looks better!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I'll update the blog around 6:30-7pm tonight, but will try to pass along some new info within answers to questions in the meantime.

Jeremy

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I want a massive snow storm.... the most snow that I have ever seen is 12 inches.. twice.

I am wondering why this storm that is suppose to be forming well south of us in the perfect set up for a winter storm here in the KC area that is going to warm up so much. Usually it stays pretty cold north of the low unless there is a front. If it reaches 40 degrees on Sunday I don't hold much hope for significant snow. It never changes back over quick enough. Its amazing that we can be so cold and finally get a storm that of course warms us up so it CAN'T snow to potential. I hope the models are wrong about the warm up and the temps stay the low to mid 30's on Sunday and quickly usher in the artic air on Monday. I would like to see mid 20's and snow.

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Brian,

The 18Z GFS keeps us above freezing on Monday with a changeover to somewhere around 9p-Midnight depending on where you live. The GFS seemed to back off a little bit on the snow total near the IA/MO border too. I still think this area will see the most...MAYBE 6"+

The metro will likely see some snow accumulation, which I will discuss coming up at 5pm.

Jeremy

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Jeremy:

Sorry to bother you and no need to even post this but looking at current surface observations, you can really see the south winds kicking in West of Salina-I think Eastern Colorado is close to 50 currently-this is going to be tricky but for all my pessimisim, it will be fun to track!!! Thanks for all the comments today-this is such a great place to discuss the weather!!!!

Have a great evening!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Did you stop grading papers? 50s on the leeward side of the Rockies in Colorado isn't too far from average right now. One mild day on Sunday before the cold returns. Spring is just teasing us!

Jeremy

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Jeremy,

Would it take much to give us a lot of SNOW?

Andy

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Andy,

We will likely see some snow accumulation in the metro...but at the moment the heaviest snow would fall near the Iowa/MO border. The metro will see mainly rain through Monday evening. With a changeover after that. That is the thinking now...

Jeremy

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Bob, you have blue sky? I am overcast in Lenexa. I am SICK of this cold but I knew last year we would get punished for having such a warm wonderful winter. I like Jeremy more and more, he likes hot weather. Oh wait, I guess there is that one teeny patch of blue in the sky.

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Jeri,

Skies have been variably cloudy across the region today(best way to describe it). After living in the cold my whole life I want some HOT temps. I was in Las Vegas a few years ago when they set the all-time record high for the month of MAY...109! I think the low that night was 89 degrees.

Jeremy

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Although it was never built up as a "storm" and we're targeted for rain, I think it's fairly important the GFS models showed this over a week ago. I also think it's important to remember that most surfaces will still be below freezing and that Monday morning rush hour could still me a nightmare regardless of what's falling from the sky.
GaryB.

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GaryB.

Thanks for checking in! I discussed this very thing with Gary Lezak earlier today. We really don't think that there will be travel problems around the metro on Monday morning or afternoon RIGHT NOW. That could change but let me tell me our thinking.

On Sunday temps will be in the 40s and remain above freezing until sometime Monday evening/night. Yes the ground is frozen...but roadways often warm-up/cool down quicker than soil or ground surfaces. Since we will have 18+ hours above freezing along with what I mentioned above it doesn't look like a great set-up for freezing rain. Could that change...yes. But we are confident that the transition with this storm would be quick from rain to snow...which should occur late Monday evening or at night.

Great question!

Jeremy

Jeremy:

Good Late Afternoon-clouds (thin high) have returned over SW Lawrence-our winds have shifted to the south-here comes the warmer air!! You have come to a pretty good place (as I am very sure you know) if you like it warm-it is almost garunteed to have good stretches of 90 plus from late June through mid September-I think Lawrence's average high in late July is 93 degrees-it will be here soon in all its glory!! I never could get focused on the papers-too enthralled with this evovlving storm!!

One quirky observation to throw out there: Part of me today was thinking maybe the models are eroding the colder air too fast then I thought: oh yea Tuesday!! We have been on the western edge of this cold the past two weeks. As you and Gary have stated, the upper pattern changed several days ago and the cold has been pretty shallow there just has been nothing accept for Tuesday to blow it out-Today is also a good example-the sun popped out and we jumped quikly to almost 35 degrees. Thus, with the approaching short wave and strong southerly winds, we will quickly warm up-it is still just cold enough in the North that it flows down here very quickly at the surface. I'm not sure if this makes sense or not but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense what the models are showing for tomorrow and Monday. I guess there is a reason winter storm watches are out for southern Indiana and Ohio-colder core air.

Sorry so long, but this was something I had thought about-hope it makes sense-still hoping for clouds tomorrow to keep temps. under 40 (not holding my breath)-of course if we just cool at the surface we could get into an ice situation-onto the 0z runs!!!! Thanks for reading and I hope I haven't babbled too much!!!

Bill still grasping that one straw in Lawrence

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Heyy! So is there a chance that this storm could still produce alot of snow, or is it set in stone that it will be a minor storm?

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Adam,

This will be a major storm for someone in the Plains and Midwest. Not too far from KC(IA/MO border) there may be 6"+ of snow. Any shift in the track could bring the heavier snow towards KC...but right now we are not thinking in that direction.

Jeremy

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It has been cloudy and cold in St. Joseph most the day. We had our Polar Bear Plunge today and it was very cold. It is 22 right now and thats been the high so far today. How is it looking for St. Joseph in the way of snow? Being a teacher, I would love to have a snow day. I don't care what day, it wouldn't hurt if it could hold off until after 6 monday being that my special olympics basketball team has practice and district games are next weekend. I don't want to miss a practice right before the game. I do however want alot of snow. I love when it snows. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for lots of snow and a snowday(two would be even better)
Thanks for all you do, I don't get any of the KC channels up here with satellite but I'm a regular visitor the the website to keep track of the weather since yours is always been the most accurate.

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Kim,

Better you than me taking the Polar Plunge:) I did swim in Lake Superior a couple of times if that counts?

St. Joe stands a better chance of a higher snow total than KC...but St. Joe will likely not see the changeover until after 6pm on Monday. Before that it will likely be rain.

Jeremy

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I don't believe the models....they haven't been correct all winter. I don't see how it gets into the 40's tomorrow. The models have continually been warmer and more wrong all winter. I am glad it is showing us not having a major winter storm as of right now...because for us snow lovers we know the models always change. The storm is forming in a perfect position for a snow in KC.

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Brian,

So far the trend has been warmer...not colder with this storm. Like you mentioned...things can change...but right now it looks like the heavy snow will occur near the IA/MO border. We will likely still see some snow accumulation in KC, but at the moment it looks like maybe 1-3" by sometime on Tuesday.

Jeremy

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Watch on radar for the Constricting bright band or the lowering of the melting layer. Saw it on METED. The way I understand that the freezing line can be lowered by Snow and stuff. And if you see a narrow band of heavy precip that could be the melting layer thing. Right? Something like that?

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Andrew,

I'm glad you are expanding your weather knowledge. Generally the bright band area constists of sleet or large ice pellets. The radar beam bounces off these and returns a higher decibal level and sometimes fools an untrained eye into thinking there is a band of very heavy snow...when in reality the radar beam is penetrating the transitional area of snow/ice/rain. If brightbands are ever detected you can see where the freezing level is by checking what height the beam intersects the precip.

Jeremy

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Sorry that this is my 3rd time blogging today. But, you had me at "but right now it looks like the heavy snow will occur near the IA/MO border. We will likely still see some snow accumulation in KC, but at the moment it looks like maybe 1-3" by sometime on Tuesday." Not good enough for Alden. I'm sorry butthats not what I was seeing. I was seeing a good 10" here in KC. Major school closings, big accidents on the highways(sadly), power outages, and ect. Now, there I AM thinking big and going way over my head but I wasnt seeing the heavy stuff near the IA/MO boreder. When you said that I was shocked. My standards for a major winter storm is atleast 8+ inches of snow. Can you maybe alter the computer models, insert some type of cheat code to make us have 15" of snow? LOL. I do know that I have a great teensy to exagerate with this type of stuff, but THIS IS FOR THE WEATHER SYSTEM AND COMPUTER MODELS: PLEASE BE NICE TO THE PEOPLE OF KC AND GIVE US A MAJOR WINTER STORM. REPEAT: PLEASE BE NICE AND GIVE THE VERY NICE PEOPLE OF KC A MAJOR WINTER STORM. But, when the new data comes out, it could give us 15" of snow. We just never know what may happen. For all we know, when the new data comes out it could give the storm so much strength that we could have the early winter Colorado,Denver had. We have just gotta hope that this storm will turn out right and we get a MAJOR major winter storm. I know, I am going way over--beyond-- over my head arent I.(?)

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Alden,

Don't stress out too much about this:) For every storm we miss there is one to take its place sometime down the road. The track and cold air placement is not set in stone. But we keep seeing the cold air well to our north into southern Iowa and Nebraska on Monday. That's why the transition will likely hold off until Monday evening or night across the area.

Jeremy