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The goat looks funny, Brett. Looks like a lot of rain for sure. Topeka's NWS has taken the snow out and maybe a little snow and rain mix but only 20-30% As I am looking at the long range maps for next week on the model analyses and forecasts page, I am not seeing significantly cold air. This storm fits right in though with the LRC. The next major storm system won't be till around the forst week of April since we are in a 42-45 day cycle. But there will be minor storm systems along the way right? Michael/Topeka

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Michael,
Yeah, I wouldn't say anything next week looks major but perhaps a significant enough of a wave and just barely cold enough air to see some snow next week, but who knows how much yet.
Brett

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I'm all for the loud and tacky Hawaiian shirts and this little kid looks great in his. About Saturdays rain-so what we are looking at now is a big "rain" storm and not another snow event?? At this point we could use a good rain to wash away all of the remaining snow and salt.--I love this weather blog. My family uses it to plan activities. Thanks again and keep up the great work.
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Pat,
Yeah, its looking more like rain there isn't any Arctic air nearby to force the storm farther south so it likely pass right over KC with rain Saturday and light snow on Sunday.

Brett

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I'm new to the weather blog, but i'm not new to goats. They are very special as anyone who knows goats will agree. That is one cute, cute goat!
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Edna,

Are you going to wear a Hawaiian shirt Friday?

Gary

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Ok..team..help me learn here..its been awhile since looking at storm mechanics off the models for severe weather. [its amazing what you lose if you don’t use it everyday!] When I look that this weekend’s storm, I see a vertically stacked storm with oodles of moisture, and nice heights for the ULL. I don’t see enough cold air to think about snow. I see a severe event. I can see the SPC noted LLJ potential, and see the mid level strength off the 850. What I don’t know yet is how to see the dryline potential or where it would lie. Also, I see tons of vort and lift potential, but not sure where this would materialize. Though lots of baroclinic variability, do I need to factor in the exact temp gradients to predict the dry line? I am assuming dew points make a difference as well. [its coming back to me a bit]

Off the models, walk me through the things you all look at to see where the severe weather, the regular rain and where the triple point may be. Surface maps? Is this the key?

Help! This will be a great blog topic and example to prepare us for the spring/summer season as this looks very much like a spring storm.

Thanks…
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Scott,

O.K., let's walk through this, but in the simple way I like to do it. It is too easy to overanalyze, and with this potential rain/convective event still 4 days away it is tough to talk about specific details this early. But, we can try. Since it is February it may be difficult to have a cap. The heights are so low that when conditions are favorable for rain and thunderstorms to form they will just form. This could be the big limiting factor for severe weather in our region. You end up with a large area of rain and thunderstorms embedded instead of holding the energy until the cap breaks which can happen later on in the spring. The other problem will be low level instability. Will we have 55 degree air everywhere or will there be a true warm front setting up and it will be near 70 not that far away. There must be some low level instability somewhere for us to have a severe weather event. Anyway, these are things to look at as the storm approaches. I still want this storm to slow down a bit, or as I discussed yesterday we could end up with a band of showers and then dry slot without instability. Then, we wait for the next system that could track south of us. But, if it slows down just a little then we get the 1 to 2 inches of rain Brett talked about in his blog entry today. Unless I see more low level instability I just think the severe weather threat will be well south of here.

Anyway you look at it this is somewhat exciting.

Gary

The picture of the goat is great! You guys have a good sense of humor.

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Ok…so, the key components are cap, dew points, and temp differences. Is there any merit to the pressure gradients producing lift, or does that only factor in when the others are present? I get the cap part, as I now remember that you want some cap, but not too much that would prohibit growth. Dewpoints will show you the dry line, right? Think so. And the last is getting the convection with the temp differences…ok.

Normally when looking at severe weather, I remember focusing on more linear fronts and rogue vorts producing MCS events, but what is the general guidance for cut-off lows? These seem more important in winter events..how does that translate for severe weather?

Thanks for the info, and to get me thinking severe weather again. Severe weather has always been my weakness from a model perspective, so I look forward to this season. Maybe I can pay back the favor in the tropics!

BTW…its probably getting close to the good time to blog about reading soundings. Critical for cap analysis!
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Scott,

We will have to do a blog on soundings when it is really a quiet time.

Let's see how this sets up and then learn from it. The pressure gradient will mainly be used in deciding how windy it will be. It isn't really a major player in lift or convergence.

Gary

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Question related to a previous blog about the mechanics to create severe weather. My question is that last year, we had a MAJOR severe weather event with a storm that had the LOW just west of us and a dryline, but the temps were in the 40's and we had major Tornado outbreak starting around 6am near Lawrence, then propogating eastward throughout the rest of the day. I just could not get over the fact that we had long-lived Tornado potential and very cold temps early that morning. Later that day, I do remember the warm front lifting through and it warming a great deal and we also had a very strong jet stream right through our area.

What is different about this storm?? Less jet stream??
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Bruce,

This is why we must wait and see how it truly sets up. On March 12th there was some debate on whether the serious severe weather threat would make it this far north, but it did. Even though it was 38 degrees in Lawrence when the first serious severe weather moved through it was MUCH warmer with dewpoints in the 60s over southern Kansas and Missouri pumping northward feeding the thunderstorms. Will it set up like this on Saturday? Probably not, as it may be just a bit colder and the dewpoints not as juicy. We will know more though as it gets closer.

Gary

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Are ya'll gonna wear your Hawaiian shirts during your weather reports on Thursday? Tell the boss to drop the dress code that one day so ya'll can show your support for KC and refresh our thoughts for summer vacations. I'll be wearing mine!

Fayetteville Jim
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Jim,

I wish our boss would let us. I am certain Brett will be on KC Live though!

Gary

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I really hope this weekends storm is a thunderstorm. I love the snow, but I have had enough of it this year. I am ready for the spring thunderstorm and warm sunny weather.
Melanie
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Melanie,

I think you are in the majority now.

Gary

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Hi Gary, I was looking back at the blogs from the Nov 30th storm and I noticed that before we had the big snowstorm we had quite a bit of rain and thunderstorms, over an inch. Could that be another indication of the LRC? And Is there a chance for any snow at all?
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Brent,

Suddenly there may be a better chance for snow on Monday. It is starting to line up the same way.

Gary

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The consensus seems to be that it will be too cold for a severe weather outbreak this weekend, but wasn't it colder during the outbreak of March 2006 that hit Kansas and Missouri? If I recall correctly, temps were only in the upper 30's to lower 40's on that day. Was the March 2006 storm set up different? If so, what are the major differences in the two storms?
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TJ,

The storms were very different. But, before we can make comparison's, let's see how this one sets up first. Last March 12th it was in the 30s in the morning, but it warmed all the way up to the 70s in Kansas City. We had a powerful warm front. We don't see this for the weekend storm at this point.

Gary

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I see you have added a chance of rain on Friday, so do you see this moving late in the evening on Friday or more during the middle part of the day?
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Ken,

There is a slight chance early Friday. Then a much better chance by Saturday. It is still too early to be so specific.

Gary

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Ok..today, this is going to be a lengthy blog. This is my first little thesis on observations. This will be about weather behaviors, but not atmospheric, but human behavior. Case in point, while “around the water cooler�, I was listening to several people talk about the weather and what was being forecasted this week. Here is an example of the conversation:

“I heard today there was suppose to be rain.� – Person A
“Really, huh…its clear outside…� – Person B
“Where did you hear that?� – Person B
“Dunno, one of the stations….� – Person A
“I think that it is suppose to snow on Monday� – Person A
“Who knows, but its really nice today� – Person B

There are several dynamics at place here:

1. People are generally very interested in the weather, but generally have very little knowledge about it
2. People typically think that the weather should be understood and forecasted the same by all meteorologists
3. People typically know where they heard the forecast, but become generic when the forecast is wrong as they feel they have partial responsibility for the forecast if they share it with others. So to this extent, they want to be right.
4. People also connect with each weather personality.

When these principles are enacted into a conversation, you find a culture that fosters the misconceptions that we have all discussed previously. [See previous blog with the viewer calling in] You will find that people begin to fabricate and intermingle weather discussions to find one that seems most plausible and acceptable amongst their peers. Additionally, you will not often find folks in a “water cooler� moment take a stance and announce their source proudly. Often this will have a tendency to put others on alert or in a defensive stance if the announced weather person is not popular amongst the others. In this light, it can become somewhat awkward to site your favorite.

So…in so much as this environment/situation fosters anonymity, you will get many more folks that begin to treat all weather folk the same and assume based on chatter that the forecasts are the same, or equally inaccurate. In addition, you would find as word spreads you get a rather “homogenized� end result, thus bringing the public to a diluted and often incorrect puddle of a forecast.

As confrontation seems to be a pillar of the need to become vague, one thing that may actually increase the above mentioned situation is how there is bickering/bantering or otherwise targeted marketing of the differences between the different meteorologist. Obviously, I understand the need as to show differences and bring in users, but it also can work in reverse. I know this Team has been very good in not participating in the slinging, but be it from the users on the blog or other outlets, this is occurring.

I don’t propose that there is an easy answer to this situation as there is not a set answer that serves both mentalities. That is to say to become polarizing will help show differences and to provide proof of the differences between the stations – but may be to uncomfortable to openly admit at the “water cooler�, but to be too passive – and one does a disservice in not communicating their skill or bringing in new viewers…

Just food for thought for the day, since it is a bit slow before this weekend.
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Scott,

Great philosophy! And we know you work near a water cooler. Are you saying we need to be more bold? I think our bloggers, and viewers know that we are by far the most accurate and it isn't even close. But, I also know that 75% of the viewers out there don't know this? So, what are you suggesting we do? Or are you even going in this direction because it is one of my goals in life to change that image of the weather forecaster. There is a forecast you can count on. How do we get the message out?

Gary

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Gary,
I am hoping for some more snowfall next week after the rain event this weekend. The 12Z GFS looks a little more favorable for cold air next week as well. The temperature today seems much warmer than it actually is so I am ready for another cold front.
Devin
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Devin,

The question now may be is it going to be like the first cycle and the cold air faded after 10 days or is it like the last one where the cold air lasted for 38 days?

Gary