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Sounds great! Love love these weather events. Still pretty green at understanding some of these things though, and wondering if my town might see a good deal of this storm? Hopefully some of that hail too! I live about 90 miles south of KC in Nevada.
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Michelle,

I wouldn't wish hail upon anyone! But, good luck.

Gary

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I am tired of the cold weather and am ready for a good round of thunderstorms!!! Will you be sponsoring any spotter training for the upcoming severe weather season?
I love your blog and thank you for putting so much time and effort in keeping us updated and explaining our wacky weather! I have learned so much!
Jeanie
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Jeanie,

We will let everyone know when the NWS seminars will be held. I am so glad you are enjoying and learning from the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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Oh..the models do have everyone's attention...except mine. This is a rerun. As I mentioned two or so days ago, this will continue to dig. It will mirror the Nov storm, where even then the models initialized it too far north. It was only at the last second did it drop. This will be the same. As the storm seeks to cut off, it will wobble a bit, and to the south. I am not sure about the type of precip yet, but I am pretty sure this will pass near Joplin. Not sure what to make of this storm yet, other tan oodles of moisture to work with, some strong temp gradients, and a vertically stacked strengthening storm. Some place is going to get it pretty wicked. I expect some CNN type news from this storm with damage and snow. But as Gary does..."but where will it hit?"

;-)
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Scott,

When do you leave? Are you here for it? I hope you are right. It certainly could end up near Joplin, but man if it did we would have a changing to very heavy snow event. I am not sold that it will do this though. Without cold air this time there could be a trend to the north. But, we know about the "long term" longwaves. So, maybe this takes that November track?

Gary

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Lots of questions:
With modern weather records going back at least to the advent of the weather satellite, have you looked at the past 30 years to see how your theory has played out? Could you look at the year 1970 and see the cycle then?
Also, we have known that El Nino exists for some time. Which came first the LRC or the El Nino? Is one an extention of the other?

Can you post a video of your LRC presentation before your peers so we can see it as well?
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Dwight,

I believe that my theory (LRC) works for any year. Every October to early November a unique pattern sets up and then begins cycling. I know that it happens every year without question. El Nino, La Nina, and other ocean and temperature anamolies only influence the weather pattern. Something MUCH BIGGER (the LRC) is going on. I believe it will be proven someday, but years of research are necessary.

30 years ago I can guarantee you that a cycle formed and lasted all season long.

Gary

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Gary,
You should post some 500mb maps of the November storm so we can compare them. And maybe we can win some of the skeptics out there.
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Dave,

It is in our archives. It is just fascinating. The viewers can go and look back in our late November maps and see this storm which is like a twin brother or sister to this storm approaching.

And, yes I did get entertained by what you were talking about.

Gary

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How are things looking for us up north? I live in Mound City about 40 miles south of the Iowa border. Could this be a big snow event for us?

Chad
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Chad,

I think it is all rain until sometime Saturday night. It will still completely depend on the track of the upper level low. So, yes, you have a better chance for snow, but at first you should get quite a bit of rain.

Gary

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My meteorological skills are still in their infancy so I may not have as much to add but I certainly enjoy reading everyone's input. My question is how well did the the big Colorado snowstorms in late December fit into the LRC? If my math is correct, could that have been why we had the winter storm last week? (obviously on a much smaller scale) Looking forward to a very interesting weekend. As much as I like the snow. NO MORE SNOW DAYS!! Teaching in June is no fun.
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Rod,

The entire pattern fits within the LRC. I am expecting Colorado to get blasted two or three more times coming up soon.

Teaching an extra two or three days should be O.K. You will get a long time off right after that! So, let's get some more.

Gary

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Gary,

I really hope the storm tracks north because I am tired of the snow. If it were to track south can we expect any sleet or freezing rain?

Jon
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Jon,

There is no concern of the other types of precipitation out of this storm without Arctic air near by.

Gary

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Hi Gary, If the storm tracks south, say Arkansas, would we get some snow? It seems like the storm in November did the same thing and we got snow. I have been thinking that this storm may be a winter storm for weeks. I hope it turns out that we get some snow, at least 2 inches.
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Brent,

Yes, if it does track further south. The latest GFS has many other chances so don't get disappointed if this goes further north. It is still very exciting.

Gary

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I leave on the 28th, and will be coming back on the 2nd. Of course this should be gone by then, so I don’t have many worries. All that I asked all along is time for the road crews to do their thing before I leave. As far as the longwaves, it hard to deny the one in our area for this year. Storm after storm has easily or fought to get on it..and that is why KCI vs. S. Metro are soo different. One might think this odd, but afterall, all longwaves will cut a given area, and ours just happens to be splitting the city. Had to happen somewhere. This storm should bring some good conversation at the seminar, so this will be good. I think the cold air will surge in late, as usual. Oddly, I feel that the longwave is dictating the path more than the cold. I think by following the longwave, irrespective of the cold, it will dive south anyway. In turn, that will make it easy for the cold to filter in behind. In addition, I am losing faith in the following storm, as I think the lead will take the moisture with it. I will pay attention more on Friday when we actually have a storm on the mainland, and can have much better surface analysis.
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Scott,

After this weekend the weather pattern is very strange. I am not sure what to think yet, but it could continue to be stormy.

Hopefully you won't miss anything.

Gary

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hi gary, i guess i'm confused. rain saturday/saturday evening as it looks now. but when you indicated that if this tracks farther south like Nov.'s storm did, then snow into sunday? as you know, i'm no fan of snow... i'd rather have a rip-roaring thunderstorm - and hope my power stays on (kinda iffy around where i live).

anyway, you DO do such a good job on this blog, you'll keep us up to date. will be fun watching this. scott may have a good take on this one! - mike t.
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Mike,

This is yet another storm that we get to have some fun with. I am hoping we stay in the cool enough air so there are no severe thunderstorms. But, will it go further south?

Gary

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As Similar as this storm is to the november one, It does appear to be too warm for this storm to dig so hard. Hopefully it does and we get both severe weather and snow.
I think it's amazing when those two things happen just a day apart from each other. Is this a possibility for us Gary?

PS love you and your blog
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Jonathan,

Thank you. The October surprise snowstorm back in 1996 had two to three inches of rain then the snowstorm. It can and has happened. We just need this upper low to strengthen and dig a bit more.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
If I am looking at this right, the NAM is forecasting another storm to devolpe near the Western Coast. Is this correct? It does look like a trough is forming over there, but again, I dont know if it is one or not. Also, if I am seeing this right too, they do both want to track south of us so wouldn't that mean that we would see snow at some time? I do think that the "Severe Weather" thing could play out. Saturday's just to far away to wait! I will be waiting though.
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Alden,

A lot is happening in this crazy weather pattern right now. In the medium range I wouldn't rely on anything at this moment.

Gary

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Gary, sounds like someone else is starting to cave in to your LRC but wont admit it.
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Michael,

We just want to talk about the weather. I know the pattern is cycling. It is so complex but it began in October and early November and amazingly continues as expected. And, it will likely continue through spring and into summer time. We have the evidence and I know many of you following the blog agree. As obvious as it is many just don't want to see it. Very strange!

Gary

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Hey Gary, well very interesting. This is the same no doubt about it. I am a little surprised that we don't have the cold air in place. I didn't expect that one to happen. I do think it will track right over KC, so you and I both get dry slotted. We will have to watch the second and third waves coming out to see what cold air is in place at that time and will they have any moisture to work with. I just can't imagine not having more cold air in place by next week. I am going more gray and losing more hair over this. I will call you later.

Doug Heady
KOAMTV
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Doug,

I look forward to your call tonight. This is the storm, but there is always hope it could dig further south! Then next week............I just don't know yet?

Gary

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The rain instead of an ice storm sounds good.Hope there is no really severe storms though i'm still a little gun shy from last March.I live in Sedalia.
JIM
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Jim,

I can understand why! Let's hope not. It is a bit early in the season.

Gary

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You know Gary, it seems to me that we are having a normal winter. Something we have not had in several years. This reminds me of when I was young and we actually had snow we could sled ride in, not ice. And oh these poor teachers having to teach in June. We did not get more than 5 snow days a year. We went to school if it snowed, was 5 degrees and a windchill of -10. And we went to school in August with tempatures in the 90's with no air conditioning. We didn't have heat days either. The kids can't go to school because it is hot or cold, but they can go out and play in that kind of weather. Seems strange to me. Thanks for letting me vent.

Vickie
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Vickie,

I say let them have their snow days and lots of them. So, they have to work and go to school one extra week. No big deal, unless you have vacation plans I guess?

Gary

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Howdy,

Regarding the models. As each weather system goes by, is more data and readings entered into the different "models" in the hopes that some day, there will be a large and detailed enough database that forecasting will become more and more of an exact science?

I love your blog.
Dick
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Dick,

Yes, as every year goes by the computer models get more sophisticated, faster, and more data is used. Better data. But, it is still predicting the future. This will always be a major challenge.

Gary

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Gary, I too enjoy the blog and appreceiate the hard work of you and your team. I do not have the time or energy to study maps and fully understand your theory, with that said I do like following our everchanging weather because it directly affects me, as I work outdoors. I guess what I don't understand is why so many people root for bad weather, like crippling snowstorms and tornadic thunderstorms, do I make sense? Oh well, I hope you don't mind my novice ramblings from time to time. Peace out. Greg
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Greg,

I only like cripling snowstorms, personally, because it is so pretty. I don't like what it does to the commuters. Perhaps I should just live in the mountains and then it would come more naturally to everyone. I am 100% with you on the tornadic thunderstorms. To me they are not any good at all. It may be quite the natural site to see a tornado, but it only causes tremendous fear and after it is over it only smells of disaster.

Gary