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Overnight Data
Good morning,
As Gary mentioned in the late evening update, there is a chance to get dry-slotted Saturday, thereby lowering rain totals. Below is the 850mb (5000 feet) map for Saturday afternoon. The areas of dark are indicative of lots of moisture that moves through Saturday morning. Saturday morning we could receive a half inch to inch of rain. The heavy rain moves out early Saturday afternoon and as you can see by looking at this map, (valid at noon tomorrow), There may be some light scattered showers or no rain at all, and there may be some glimpses of sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Then tomorrow evening another band of light to moderate rain could move through the metro.
Click to Enlarge.
Sunday morning, Rain changes to snow. (Click to enlarge) 
It looks like there could be a period of steady snow, perhaps heavy but it doesn't last long. Still this period of snow could produce a trace to 2 inches of snow. At least that's my feeling right now, we need to watch this closely. New Data comes out later this morning and Gary will likely blog about any changes that show up and of course have a detailed forecast tonight at 5 & 6pm.
Have a great weekend, this will be a fun storm to watch evolve move overhead (Barometers may drop to around 29.26) and move out.
Brett
Posted by at February 23, 2007 6:47 AM
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Brett,
Good morning. Is there a chance for low topped supercells in the Metro Saturday morning?
Thank You
Frank
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The National Weather Service is thinking that way, it is something we'll have to watch but right now Gary and I think the chances are slim.
Thanks,
Brett
Posted by: Frank Roper at February 23, 2007 7:02 AM
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As I was out this morning, I noticed red sky to the east of Gardner. Could you explain the weather related to the phrase, Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning; red sky at night, sailors delight? Forgive me if this has been explained in the past.
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Erin,
Hi, Increasing clouds will scattered the early morning rays of sun and give off a redish appearance. Clouds in the morning are indicative of an approaching storm system and sometimes rain by the end of the day.
Have agreat weekend,
Brett
Posted by: Erin at February 23, 2007 7:14 AM
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How can this be. Last night Gary specifically said there was a 100% chance we would get rain. He was adamant.
Now you are saying we may get NO rain?
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Dwight,
The dry slot will get here after it rains, but as we discussed earlier in the week if the storm moves by faster then we could end up with just one band of showers. It is moving faster, but it will still rain.
Gary
Posted by: Dwighit at February 23, 2007 7:23 AM
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i was just wondering if we would DRY SLOT and get some sun if that could up our chances of severe weather?
also i wanted to know what is a "Cold Core Tornado" and is that a possabilty for us with this storm? we sure do need the rain to wash things off!
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Nikie,
Hi, It doesn't appear the coulds clear enough for us to jump into the 60s tomorrow with high dew points. With that said, a similiar but not identical set up occured last October in Southwest Kansas with cold core tornadoes developing, so certainly something that needs to be watched, but chances are slim.
Brett
Posted by: nikie at February 23, 2007 7:48 AM
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Hello Brett,
So it looks like we will see some snow? What has to happen for it not to snow?What time period we look at Sun afternoon???
Thanks
Anne
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Anne,
It won't snow if the moisture moves east before the cold air gets here. Its possible since the storm is moving so afst.
Brett
Posted by: Anne at February 23, 2007 8:03 AM
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Gary....quickie question. If looking ahead for the next time the pattern cycles through would be approximatly Easter weekend. Combine the month of April and a similair set up would mean a major severe weather outbreak somewhere near by. Seems that would lead to much taller supercells and long track tornadoe possibilties. Agree?
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Brian,
Yes, but you have to look at each storm individually. It could be an outbreak, but it doesn't mean it will be here.
Gary
Posted by: brian at February 23, 2007 8:43 AM
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Ok, so you keep saying that it is too cold for severe weather. If I remember right, wasn't it cool when the severe weather occured the end of November 2005? I can remember hearing tornado warnings, and yet I was wearing a jacket!
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Kimberlay,
The cool temerpatures are limiting factor, there could still be a severe storm the chances are slim.
Brett
Posted by: Kimberley at February 23, 2007 9:09 AM
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It's starting to sound like this storm may be a bust..*sigh* I was at least hoping for some rain, and possibly a bit of thunder.
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Dave,
Not a bust, still a chance for an inch of rain and some snow, but instead of raining all day it may stop for a period Saturday afternoon but stay cloudy.
Brett
Posted by: Dave C. at February 23, 2007 9:20 AM
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Well, according to the MRKPI (My Recurring Knee Pain Index), we're getting something big. Usually it shows up three days in advance of an approaching nasty, validating the LRC, but this time the index has been quite high since Monday. I'm skeered.
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Sue,
Thanks for letting us know!
Gary
Posted by: Sue at February 23, 2007 9:52 AM
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