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Severe weather threat increases
Good afternoon everyone,
There is a chance of a severe weather outbreak overnight. We rarely have overnight severe weather outbreaks but everything is pointing towards this happening between 8 PM and 4 AM.
We have been talking about this very potent storm system and now it is moving a bit faster. Warm moist air is being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm front is lining up near Kansas City. A very strong surface low will be intensifying as it moves along the warm front and passes by early on Thursday morning. Along the surface low track and south of it thunderstorms will be likely. Very large hail and possibly tornadoes will threaten our area tonight. We will have our weather team and all of our sophisticated equipment ready to keep you advised on each thunderstorm as it passes through.
Every storm is different. Will this be a tornado producing storm system or just severe hail. Or, just ordinary thunderstorms. Obviously we are thinking the severe variety is likely.
Click to enlarge (Hail threat)
 Click to enlarge (Tornado threat)
Above, you can see the latest hail and tornado threats. These are quite high for February!
Gary
Posted by at February 28, 2007 11:16 AM
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Hello Mr. Lezak, when do you expect the thunderstorms to begin developing? Any chance before 8pm? Hows the snow chance looking fo leavenworth?
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Ben,
The snow chance really doesn't look good, but this storm has a mind of its own so let's see what happens tomorrow. I doubt the thunderstorms develop before 8 PM near us.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at February 28, 2007 11:24 AM
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Where is the energy at right now?
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Brian,
It is over Arizona and heading our way.
Gary
Posted by: Brian at February 28, 2007 11:31 AM
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Ok..definitely last blog. I have been researching and looking at soundings. I will be punching this one as I head down to Wichita. At that time when heading south, I should be just ahead then swallowed by the dryline.
Joy.
Posted by: Scott at February 28, 2007 11:43 AM
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Gary, please tell me this isn't going to be like the March of 2006 outbreak. Does it look the same?
Baylee
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Baylee,
There are many differences. The biggest is that it is occurring at night. And, it isn't as warm as the March 12th set up.
Gary
Posted by: Baylee H. at February 28, 2007 11:56 AM
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Gary,
I am already begining to like the severe weather season. I read on fox news that La nina is going to effect the east coast this year. will it effect us as well and if so what type of weather can we expect.
Thanks.
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Jeff,
If you believed that El Nino was going to affect the weather this past winter then all the things that have been happening shouldn't have been happening. La Nina will have minimal influences here in the United States through the next two seasons.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at February 28, 2007 12:15 PM
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Gary,
Interesting development. You said in your latest blog entry, "Very large hail and possibly tornadoes will threaten our area tonight.". But the SPC Day1 convective outlook says "INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY VICINITY KS/OK BORDER WITH STORMS THEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN MO.". Sounds like SPC is thinking the storms will be farther south of us (i.e. SWRN MO). Do you really think we'll see the threat in the NE part of KS? What indications are showing this, if any? Thank you.
Regards,
Kris Wells
Olathe, KS
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Kris,
Hopefully they are right, but it will be near the warm front which has made it to Kansas City. Let's see where it lines up this evening. If the front is stalled here then the SPC will adjust the threat northward.
I hope it stays south.
Gary
Posted by: Kris Wells at February 28, 2007 12:48 PM
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Gary, I've been wondering if the LRC applies to anywhere on earth? If so, does it mean you can predict how the hurricane season is like, the number of typhoons in Asia, or how the winter is south hemisphere? Have you seen any limitations or exceptions in LRC so far?
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Ivan,
I have only studied the northern hemisphere. And, the LRC would likely apply to most of this area. Now, hurricane season does not apply, but I believe that it cycles as well each season. How? I am not sure.
Gary
Posted by: Ivan at February 28, 2007 1:18 PM
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Is the chance of snow diminishing for St. Joseph? I've tried to keep track of the weather but everyone has a different take on this. You have always been the closest and I wanted to hear what you have to say.
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Kim,
This is tricky! The latest data has about 4 inches in St. Joseph, but this morning had around 1 inch. So, it will just depend on how the storm moves by Thursday morning.
Gary
Posted by: Kim at February 28, 2007 1:21 PM
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Hi Gary,
This is weird, especially for february to have a severe weather outbreak during the night. I assume if PDS's are issued they would be farther south or east or do you think that might be possible for us, and also will the temperature do you think hold most of the night or rise even and then plummit after the low passes by? thanks for all your information Gary. I'm tuned in to KSHB all day and night long!
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Jonathan,
Thanks! This is rare! But, it hasn't happened yet.
Gary
Posted by: Jonathan Katz at February 28, 2007 1:23 PM
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Dear gary
Rosalind woody says hi.Will you be appearing at any of the spotter seminar like the one in kansas city kansas on march 20 th it would be cool if you were ther and we could meet you.If there is severe weather in our viewing area do you plan on buting in to let the people know about the weather that could harm life or property.keep up the good work.P.S you should make a myspace check my out sometime.
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Brent,
I don't know yet if I will be there on the 20th. I am going to try to make at least one.
Gary
Posted by: Brent Hickman at February 28, 2007 1:39 PM
Good afternoon Gary. Yes, I agree about the snow going to our north. It really is muggy here in Topeka this afternoon. It feels like severe weather but it is clear out. Should be an interesting storm. Michael/Topeka
Posted by: Mike Huffman at February 28, 2007 1:47 PM
Gary,
Interesting that the temperature has risen all the way up to 70 when the forecast from the weather service was for only 62 for today.
Could be more juice than we thought for tonight?
Posted by: Dave at February 28, 2007 2:13 PM
This is a little off topic Gary, but have you made your spring and summer weather predicitons yet? Just curious - thanks.
Brad
Posted by: brad at February 28, 2007 2:18 PM
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Gary,
Do you think their is the potential for the developing La Nina event to gain strength and have an impact on the plains for the upcoming fall/winter season? The SSTs in some areas of the Pacific have rapidly cooled.
Devin
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Devin,
I do expect La Nina to stengthen, but does it really mean anything to us? Not much!
Posted by: Devin at February 28, 2007 2:34 PM
Gary,
Is there a high threat of tornadoes in Edgerton, mo overnight? Also, if tornadoes do develop will they be big strong, longlasting ones? I am terrified of this. Thanks, RObin
Posted by: robin at February 28, 2007 4:27 PM
WOW!!!!!! South in olathe. AWESOME!!! Storms building. You can see the clouds increasing in intensity, for lack of a better word. I LOVE SPRING!!
Posted by: scottie at February 28, 2007 5:59 PM
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