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Thunderstorms have weakened
The tornado watch that is in effect until 6 PM will likely be cancelled soon. As expected the thunderstorms moved into the cooler air over our region and rapidly weakened. There was only one or two warnings and not in our viewing area. We thought there was only a very slight chance today and in the end the cooler air won out. So, there is still a small threat of severe weather but it is turning into a band of showers and thunderstorms that will mostly stay below severe limits. Some areas could see some heavy downpours in the next few hours.
After midnight the snow potential will increase as the storm passes by to our east. This is one powerful storm. Look at the storm below at 2 PM this afternoon. As the center passes by to our east the colder air will wrap in and we could end up with snow after midnight. The best chance of accumulations will be up north. This is what we will now concentrate on. Have a great Saturday evening.

Click to enlarge
Gary
Posted by at February 24, 2007 1:16 PM
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Gary, we have had a steady rain here in Excelsior Spgs. Not sure how much we've had but I'm sure more than 1 1/2 inches. Awfully cool though. Have a great day.
Susan
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Susan,
Thanks for the report!
Jeremy
Posted by: Susan at February 24, 2007 1:25 PM
Gary,
Is it true if the sun comes out in our area we will become unstable? It would be nice to see something going on in Kansas City. Hats off to you and your team as you have been predicting this storm. I remember very clearly at the blogers meeting you telling us about it. Keep up the great work!!!
Lisa
Posted by: Lisa at February 24, 2007 1:27 PM
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Hello weather team,
Snow will increase after midnight, does that mean more snow here in the metro??
Anne
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Anne,
Likely less than 1" in the metro tonight. A little more to the north.
Jeremy
Posted by: Anne at February 24, 2007 1:32 PM
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Hello weather team, the temp has risen almost 3 degrees in the last 10 minutes in Leavenworth. (46). Do you expect the sun to come out at all. When is the next rain chance? Hows the snow looking for tonight?
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Ben,
Your temp should end up near 50 today. More showers and a few storms will arrive later this afternoon. We are still watching the line of thunderstorms to the SW of KC. At the moment(2:10pm) there are no warnings out. That might change as some of the storms have a little small hail in them.
Jeremy
Posted by: Ben Tracy at February 24, 2007 1:33 PM
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Can you tell us which areas are under the watch? Is there a graphic you can upload?
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Erin,
Here is is...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Posted by: Erin at February 24, 2007 1:45 PM
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What are our chances for snow and do you have an estimate on accumulation yet?
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Bryan,
Most spots around the metro will have <1". Areas to the north near St. Joe about 1-1.5" and in NW MO maybe 2-4".
Jeremy
Posted by: Bryan at February 24, 2007 1:48 PM
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I was wondering if we could expect tornadoes in Edgerton, MO? The sun came out for about maybe 5 minutes not sure if this was enough to increase the risk. Thanks, Robin
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Robin,
We don't think so. The thunderstorms are weakening as they move into the cooler air.
Gary
Posted by: robin at February 24, 2007 2:10 PM
Gary, Thanks for the quick reply!! Robin
Posted by: robin at February 24, 2007 2:17 PM
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are you still holding to the inch or less on the snow
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John,
Around KC yes...probably less than 1". North of St. Joe maybe 2-4" near Maryville and into the far NW corner of MO.
Jeremy
Posted by: john marr at February 24, 2007 2:38 PM
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I was just wondering what the severe weather potiental would be around 5-6pm this evening from Lawrence to K.C.
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Kim,
It is possible that you may have to contend with a thunderstorm containing some heavy rain, but no severe weather is expected at that time.
Jeremy
Jeremy
Posted by: Kim at February 24, 2007 2:57 PM
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For no chance of severe storms, they are getting close, and watches are within the viewing area. This storm is very powerful, and can make something out of nothing. Oddly, very little instability is required with the oodles of sheer and lift.
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Scott,
So far the only warning has been south of Emporia. There is a stronger storm in Miami county, KS that may produce some gusty winds. This is probably just below severe levels. As of now this is the only storm that may near the severe threshold.
Jeremy
Posted by: Scott at February 24, 2007 3:15 PM
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The storm is clearly more south than the models were showing... why is KC not getting more snow?
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Brian,
We'll see a little snow tonight...but nothing like parts of the upper Midwest around MN & WI. Some areas there have already seen 12"!
Jeremy
Posted by: Brian at February 24, 2007 3:17 PM
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For such a power house storm, the radar sure looks like it has a lot of holes all over the place.. the snow in Nebraska doesn't look all that impressive
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Brian,
I see what you are saying over Nebraska...but there is a heavy band of snow forming over the NE part of the state. This is the band that may bring parts of MN some 6-12" of snow tonight.
Jeremy
Posted by: Brian at February 24, 2007 3:20 PM
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Gary-
I know it's really early to ask this but, does the storm in the middle of next week look like it will give more of a severe weather threat to the Metro area?
Thank you
Serj
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Serj,
Tough to tell this far out...predicting severe weather in late February 4-5 days out is not a wise move. The storm does not look to be as strong as our current one though. We'll focus on that storm once we get the rain and possible snow out of here this weekend.
Jeremy
Posted by: Serj Naiknat at February 24, 2007 3:21 PM
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Jer: Is the storm near Paola beginning to rotate? It's got a little kink in it.
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Craig,
I've been keeping an eye on the storm over the past 20 minutes. It has weakened slightly over the past couple of radar images. The storm still contains some gusty winds and small hail.
We'll continue to monitor the cell. It may have a tough time holding its strength heading into the metro, this area has a more stable atmosphere.
Jeremy
Posted by: Craig at February 24, 2007 3:56 PM
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Jeremy:
How are you holding up-been a very busy day!! Thanks for all the responses today!!! The latest band of rain has moved through SW Lawrence and we are begininng to clear out some what-can really see that on satelite as well.
Looking at the satelite loops I think I am seeing where the heavier bands of mositure are setting up on the back side: mostly to the north and west of us-there is that one heavier band in SE Colorado and SW Kansas that looks kind of interesting..did you see the dust blowing in Oklahoma and Texas on the visible satelite imagery-wild stuff-the satelite today has been spectacular!!!!
Man, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and NE Iowa are just getting clobbered as is Western Kansas-what a day-as a snow lover who would love one more big event, I kind of feel like Steeler's Wheel: Blizzards to the left of me Blizzards to the right here I am stuck in the middle.....
Have a great afternoon and thanks to you, Gary and the whole weather team for all the updates and responses-you are all aces!!!!
Bill blinded by the light in Lawrence
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Bill,
I'm hanging in there...but am quite tired. The clearing line is trying to push NE. Temps will be fun to show at 5pm. Our Weather Now temps range from the low 40s on the NE side of the metro to the mid 50s on the far SW side.
Still a few strong storms hanging on...but nothing severe.
Jeremy
Posted by: Bill Gollier at February 24, 2007 4:20 PM
We got some Pea size hail at 130th and State Avenue right at 5pm...Very strange stuff..it was sunny to the west right about K-7..
Posted by: Bryan at February 24, 2007 5:05 PM
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Just an FYI...
For the weatherbug at the top of the screen..when you have a Flood Warning and Tornado Warning out..it looks a bit misleading since they are both pink in color...Might be something you want to look at changing.
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Bryan,
Thanks for the feedback!
Jeremy
Posted by: Bryan at February 24, 2007 5:24 PM
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We had a nice 'bout of rain and wind this morning then it shut off and we havent had a whole lot since, lately the new band of rain has kind of hopped over us, do you think it will fill in a bit more later?
I think I heard there was some sort of damage near holden down there, hope it is just a barn or something like that.
Nick in (cool/damp) St. Joe!!
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Nick,
I'll pass along more info when I get it on the possible tornado.
Jeremy
Posted by: Nick Rau at February 24, 2007 5:50 PM
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Gary...hurry and go look to the east...the MOST AMAZING rainbow i've ever seen.
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Chris,
Send a picture.
Jeremy
Posted by: Chris at February 24, 2007 5:54 PM
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Jeremy...what email address should I send it to? If you want full resolution shots they'll be 1-3mb/each
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Chris,
You can send the pictures to:
jnelson@nbcactionnews.com
Is there one picture of the entire rainbow...or are they pieced together?
Thanks!
Jeremy
Posted by: Chris at February 24, 2007 6:11 PM
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Wow! What a dress rehearsel for the season. This is just the type of system that we studied in advanced dynamics class at KU.
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Kevin,
I think this was a good event for all. A tune up or an event to remember for future storms.
Jeremy
Posted by: kevin knapp at February 24, 2007 7:04 PM
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