« Breezy goes to a school.....Big Storm? |
Main
| Other models »
Thunderstorms & Snow
Good morning everyone,
Brett and I were just discussing the latest data and it is impressive. This is a fast moving and powerful storm. So what does it mean for us?
The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for northwest Missouri north of St. Joseph for significant accumulations of snow. Thundestorms are also likely overnight tonight with the potential for a few of these thunderstorms becoming severe. Large hail about golf ball size would be the main threat from some of the stronger thunderstorms. This is an amazing storm in many respects. First of all the surface low is powerful. The pressure will likely be down to around 29.10" early Thursday morning. As the surface low passes a band of significant snow will likely have formed over central and north central Kansas. This will very likely swing east across the state line by mid morning Thursday. How it holds together and how long it lasts will decide if we see any of the accumulating snow. The latest NAM does show the potential for 1 inch on the south side of Kansas City to 3 inches on the north side with nearly 5 inches near St. Joseph or just north of there. The wind will be blowing at around 45 mph so near blizzard conditions could develop across northwest Missouri near Maryville.
Below you can see three maps. The first one is the NAM 24 hour forecast showing the strong surface low strengthening as it passes early Thursday morning. The second map is the precipitation type forecast for noon Thursday. And, the third is the forecast precipitation overnight showing the thunderstorms between midnight and 6 AM.
Strong surface low valid 6 AM Thursday
NAM Forecast Precipitation Type noon Thursday
Precipitation forecast 12 hours ending 6 AM
We will see what the other models do this morning. The GFS has been a bit stronger and further south on each run. A little further south and we will certainly see snow on Thursday. But, this doesn't mean it will happen. We are right on the edge and if you live further south, like on a line from Pleasant Hill to Paola southward then you could end up with no snow at all. Unless this goes further south of course.
The severe weather threat is there and this is another part of this storm we will be monitoring and updating on our newscasts tonight. Brett will have an update on the cutins during the next hour and then during KC LIVE at 10 AM.
Gary
Posted by at February 28, 2007 8:28 AM
**********
Gary,
If the sun breaks through today and warms things up a bit will our chance of severe thunderstorms increase? And if so, what temperatures and dew points would increase the risk?
Janine
----------------
Janine,
There is really no threat during the day today. It won't matter if the sun comes out or not. The temperatures are going to be warming up to our south and moving this way. The lift from this storm arrives overnight.
Gary
Posted by: Janine at February 28, 2007 8:53 AM
*********
Hey Gary & Jeremy
I am in Minneapolis and they are talking about a winter storm warning with a possibility of 12" - 20" by friday. Does this seem reasonable to you?
Tim in GW (MSP)
********
Tim,
I just talked to my sister in Minneapolis and told her to get ready for snow totals of 10-12". Could this go higher? Yes, but that is assuming some convective snow bands form. To me this looks like a bigger snow event for Minneapolis than the previous storm. With that said, I don't see parts of SE Minnesota or anywhere in MN picking up 2 feet of snow like they did with the last storm. Right now 10-12" is a good bet.
Jeremy
Jeremy
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at February 28, 2007 9:25 AM
***********
Good Morning Gary-
I have a couple of questions for you. 1)Is the main threat for severe weather south of I-70? and 2)the further the low tracks south, could that diminish the severe threat for the Metro?
Thanks for your time
Shavo
--------------
Shavo,
It appears the surface low will track right near Kansas City. So, the threat will be near us.
Gary
Posted by: Shavo at February 28, 2007 9:39 AM
|
