Hey gary
I want the big snows gary.But the rain will give me a chance to try out my new rain gauge.gary do you own a weather station?I got the oregon scientific weather station for christmas it is doing a great job.

keep up the good work gary and weather team.

are you seeing any snow storms next week if we dont get any snow this storm thanks

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Gary, Husker Dad and Husker Mom are planning on traveling down here this weekend. If the storm goes as it looks now, would Omaha, NE get a lot of snow? If so, about how much could they expect to try to drive thru on Sunday? Mark
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Mark,

This is a very strong storm. It could become a travel problem creator by Saturday night. Sunday it will be leaving, but not out of here.

Gary

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Gary,

The 1:00 NWS Outlook says something about "thunderstorms look to be elevated in nature". What does that mean? Are those "dry" thunderstorms like they have out west? And how are the rain/snow chances for Northwest Missouri with the low tracking near KC? Thanks - Tye in Maryville
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Tye,

An elevated T-Storm is one in which the updraft originates at 3000-5000 feet as oppoesed to the surface in a regular T-Storm. Elevated T-Storms can have heavy rain & hail, but almost never tornadoes as the updraft does not start at the ground. These occur in cold airmasses. For example it can be 35 degrees with a T-Storm.

I hope this answers your question.

Jeff Penner

********************************************************Hello Gary,
What's your gut feeling, think we will see snow here in the metro KC late Saturday Night or Sunday? Just think if the Artic air was in place, with you saying heavy rain it would be a Major snow storm, how many inch you think that would make for?
Thanks for the time have a great day!!! Anne
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Anne,

It still looks like the storm is tracking just a bit too far north. We still could see some snow Saturday night. We need this storm to track 50-100 miles further south. It is still possible. It may be something we will not know for sure until Saturday as it is such a small distance with huge consequences.

Jeff Penner

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Hi Gary, I have a quick question, Yesterday when you guys said that the storm was tracking further south, Was it going south of us or north of us? What I mean is, If it's going to track close to Kansas City now, where was it going to track yesterday?
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Brent,

Each situation is different. In this case we need the storm to track 100 miles south of us. As is, right now, it tracks right near KC. This puts the snow in far northeast Kansas & far northwest Missouri along with Nebraska & Iowa. It is still not set in stone.

Jeff Penner

Hey Gary thanks for always letting us know what's going on! I can't wait to see what the models show later!It's going to be fun tracking this storm! Take care!

Rachel K. :)

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severe weather, snow...iffy at the moment...what's guarunteed is my car getting a good washing. I guess that's something to be thankful for...I just want to clarify for other bloggers that were kind of down on the fact that some people like bad weather. I am a weather FINATIC..and I guess to be a weather finatic you have to like all kinds of weather...even the bad. I don't like the damage thunderstorms do. I was in Lawrence in a townhouse the morning of the microburst March 12 and honestly I wasn't sure if I was going to live through it....it was that bad. but the shear power and the phenomenon of a thunderstorm is so incredible to me I can't help but love it. Thanks for letting me share my feelings. I'll take whatever comes our way and i'm glued to KSHB all weekend long.
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Jonathan,

I love all weather as well. I am not a big fan of severe weather as it can destroy many lives.

The whole city needs a good wash down. It looks like we will at least get that.

Jeff Penner

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We often discuss the fact that a storms track is key. What factors do you consider when determining the track of a storm besides models?
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Paul,

Storms track along low & mid level temperature gradients. So, if we are deep in Arctic air, it is likely a major storm will track south of us. if there is much warm air than it may go north. That is why this next storm is going to have a hard time tracking too far south as the warmer air is fairly dominant.

Jeff Penner

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Jeff and Gary Are we talkin heavy rain to clean the streets off..... Jerry in the northland
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Jerry,

It looks that way. Even .50" will wash us off.

Jeff Penner

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Good afternoon!!!!

Just saw that there is a blizzard watch for Beloit to Philipsburg down to Goodland Kansas and then up into central Nebraska-wow-what a powerhouse this storm looks like it is going to be!!!

The NAM still is sticking to that more southerly track of the 500 low (I think)-if only the 850 low would tack a bit south. Am I seeing things or has the 18Z GFS trended about 10 miles further south...yea and 2 plus 2 equals 5....Blizzard watch is just kind of cool to see this close to us. If we could just get a surprise push of colder air..

Have a great night

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

The NAM trended slightly north and the GFS slightly south. This will be a close call.

Gary

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hey gary... i just saw your promo for the weather coming up in a few minutes and you had that citycam view with the bug on it. that was funny!

maybe you could post that clip or a still here on the blog and have our good mr. bill in lawrence see if he can get one of the fine entymologists at KU to have a look and see if they can identify it.

okay... not exactly weather related, but could be fun!? just a thought.

btw... jeff... nice definition of the elevated t-storm! i can definitely visualize the difference.

thanks all! - mike t.

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If you believe the SPC SREF product, it has this mostly a rain storm, yet has the ULL down south. It also indicates rain starting tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. This could be a flooder.

Gary/Jeff, help me understand. Though temp is usually the catalyst for convection required for severe storms, convection can be fabricated from temp differences/dew point and causing instability as well, right? I thought I saw in the SPC discussion that ahead of the storm there could be as much as 1500 k/J. That seems sufficient for instability even without the surface temps?

BTW..I will still stick with a bit of snow even though my favorite models for one run has it leaving. I have learned my lesson, and will wait for one more model run to see if the trend stays.

I hate being a slave to the models. Maybe I should just ignore the models and pretend its Nov again.

I am anticipating 1-3 inches of liquid stuff. How it comes out of the sky, still not sure.
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Scott,

If the upper low goes south like they say then we get a blizzard. But, it is trending north.

The CAPES will be very low with this storm. It just isn't warm enough. And, there is a lot more to it and we will just have to discuss it later. This has been a strange day with many distractions.

Gary

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What are the chances we get dry slotted and end up with under .5" of rain? This storm seems like the action will be all around us again with blizzard to the NW and severe storms SE of us.

Still praying we have one last good snow event as this may be the only chance.
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Joe,

Many other models have much colder air in the next week. So, this won't be our last chance, I don't think anyway.

Gary

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Hi Gary. I know you are working on the storm for this weekend. But I am wondering about potential for any bad weather March 1-4. I am managing an event next weekend that has attendees coming in to KC from 35 states. Some driving, some flying. Any predictions? Thanks!!
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Sheri,

After this storm the weather pattern is somewhat crazy. I haven't talked about it much as there is an Arctic air mass in Canada. The models don't know what to do with this at the moment. So, let's hope it is nice for your activity, but I have concerns.

Gary

I live near 83rd & State Line. The creek that goes along Lee Blvd. starts pretty close to where I live. The creek has been in the lower part of my yard for 30 min. It has never done this in the 8 1/2 years
I have lived here.