It would be nice if it misses us completely!

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Gary,
I'm kind of confused-If we dry slot, does that increase the threat for redevelopment of supercells or decrease the chance?
Adam
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Adam,

We would have severe thunderstorm erupt within the dry slot if it weren't February and it were May. Will there be enough moisture? I doubt it.

Gary

Hey Gary-
So is the main threat with this storm going to be the flash flood potenial or something more? My wife hates thunderstorms, and she is already freaking out and getting the basement ready. I spent half of last year down there and I'm not ready to go back! Thanks.
Derrick

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Gary,
Hello, Why is it we are always in the dry-slot? It seems to be this way every big storm. Or am I just confused?

Thanks,
Lisa
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Lisa,

When an upper low goes to your north you will almost always get dry slotted. But, you can get a lot of rain before this happens. If the upper low goes to your south the dry slot stays south of you and this happened a few times this winter too.

Gary

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I just read this from the SPC. Does this mean we might be in for it?

...ERN KS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO VALLEY...
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
STRONG FORCING AND INTENSE BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL AID SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. A NARROWING CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO SUSTAIN THESE STORMS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE LOW UNDERGO
OCCLUSION AND MORE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX BECOMES
PINCHED OFF WITH TIME. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF THESE SEVERE STORMS...GREATER PROBABILITIES DO NOT
APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE INCREASED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
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Justin,

We must pay close attention, but we feel it is going to be too cool for any severe weather around here. Let's see how it sets up.

Gary

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Gary

Good Morning sir!! Sitting at around 38 this morning-you can feel/smell the beginnings of the gulf air being pumped up into the area-kind of gives the feel of early April outside this morning!!!

Man, we are close to a major winter event-200-300 miles..The GFS and NAM have kind of done a teaser by forming the ULL further South in New Mexico and you think hey...then it kind of rides the Kansas/Oklahoma border for the 30-42 hour time frame and again you're like hey ok..then bam at about Saturday night it bolts right over the top of us. With the push of warm air showing up on satleite this morning (all the way into Central Alberta-wow) a northern track makes sense-also, there is just nothing showing up on the models-no strong high in central Canada to help push this thing to the south. Maybe as the low forms it can get a stronger push of colder air that could kind of change-talk about grasping at a straw!!!! However, always the iternal optimist, with the ULL possibly forming further south to begin with, I will still hold out some strange hope-jury may still be out as the low has yet to form...straw number 2!!!!

Whatever the case, again, to me it is the LRC that makes this so cool-the strom is there just as the LRC says it should be-you have always said that things will not always line up exactly the same each time through the cycle (i.e. in April we are most likely not going to have lows below 0 when the October pattern comes back through)-well, we are at the end of February and the projected track of this storm is pretty typical for this time of year. I hope this makes sense-this is the November storm just in late February so climatogically speaking you will have a different cold air placement-the 500 ht maps are identical to each other-there is no doubting the LRC on this!!!

Well, at least the 0Z and 06Z GFS gives us some flakes on the back side-and who knows-when this finally forms, we may well get a further south push-crazier things have happened.....it will be cool to see this on satelite tomorrow night-this looks like it will be a textbook mid latitude cyclone and should have quite the coma shape as it wraps up-one powerhouse storm. It is still cool to bring up the NWS out of Topeka and have Blizzard Watch show up even if it is 300 miles away!!!

Have a great day!!!!

Bill still excited-need the rain-in Lawrence
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Bill,

It would be nice to see this storm go further south. But, it doesn't look like it will. Hopefully we get enough rain before the dry slot gets here.

Gary