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Okay guys -- here's the latest from the Dog- a summary of the last system:

The next storm to affect Blue Springs in February began to show up on the models the week before, and by early in the week, forecasters had begun to hint that this next system would be a “power-house�, with the Gulf of Mexico moisture liberally advected into its maw, fueling the exceptional dynamics of the upper-low itself. Moreover, like other systems before in the season, it was to strengthen upon approaching us - so far from the desultory, declining systems of the past season. Still, I didn’t dare to hope too much.

However, I need not have been concerned about this beast’s non-performance, for it was truly a “wild-thing� as it swept out onto the High Plains of Texas by Friday. While our skies were mostly clear until high clouds began moving in by late evening, far to our southwest, things were likely to become unpleasant for denizens of the Texas Panhandle. There was a Moderate Risk for severe weather in that area, including Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. As the low-level jet increased in response to the approaching lift and lowering pressure of the potent upper-low, moisture was flooding into the area - mid-50F dew-points into southwestern Oklahoma by 1400 CST, while sunshine had warmed temperatures nicely into the 70s F! With a dry-line over the central Texas Panhandle, as the cooler air aloft moved into from the west, its destabilizing influence would trigger a few severe storms.

Furthermore, the SPC noted that the “potential for tornadoes will increase
,,,more so this evening, as low-level shear increases considerably - effective
SRH - Storm Relative Helicity - of 350-500 M2/S2 [meter per second squared]...owing to 1) dynamic and nocturnal strengthening of the LLJ [low-level jet] and 2) slight decoupling of boundary layer...� These two factors often occur, and can be some of the reasons for storms firing after dark, when daytime sees little.

Subsequently, a Tornado Watch was issued for this region, and up to 8 tornadoes, mainly in the Texas Panhandle, occurred, with one videoed from McClean, Texas along I-40. We remained dry throughout Friday, the 23rd.

Our action occurred on the following day, the 24th, with a couple of rumbles of thunder heard sleepily by myself somewhere before dawn. I couldn’t be bothered at the time, snuggled warmly with JoAnne and our dogs, Sheba and the ‘sumo-wrestler’ Lab, Parker, to look outside or note the time. Later on during the morning a moderate shower fell, and again heavy showers fell at mid-afternoon, with a glorious rainbow visible from the Ranger Station at Lake Jacomo - the most vibrant greens, yellows, reds, oranges, purples I’d ever seen in such a phenomena!

At this time, 1615, a Tornado Warning was in effect for western Johnson County, Kansas, for “intensely-rotating� cell near Houghton. Unknown to me at the time, Johnson County, Missouri was experiencing a rather unexpected event - a damaging tornado in Holden! The NWSs news advisory stated: “Just after 4:30 PM, an isolated supercell thunderstorm developed over eastern Cass County and tracked northeast toward Johnson County. As this storm crossed a warm front draped across the area, an initial radar signature of strong winds estimated at 50 mph began to organize into an area of strong rotation with the storm. A significant weather alert for strong winds was issued at 4:52PM, and mentioned that conditions were favorable such that storms could become capable of producing brief tornadoes. This alert was then upgraded to a tornado warning at 507PM.
Shortly after, a tornado was spotted by Johnson County Emergency Management, and then by an off duty National Weather Service Employee. Early reports indicate that this tornado produce structural damage to homes and businesses in and around Holden�

Other damaging tornadoes occurred in Louisiana at Bossier City, followed by one three-quarters of a football field wide in Mississippi! The worst one for damage occurred in eastern Arkansas at Dumas, where numerous reports of damage, including “cars in trees�, were recorded.

Blizzard Warnings for western Kansas and Nebraska up into Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin were posted - winds of over 70 mph occurred in eastern Colorado as well!!!

Our total rainfall was .95 inches.

Dog

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Thanks for the recap! Awesome!

Jeremy

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Hey Jeremy,
A rather impressive low pressure system to say the least! I really liked Gary's perspective that the central pressure reached that of a Category 1 hurricane! That is almost all you have to say about that. When does the LRC dictate another system moving through KC? I have not kept up on what day cycle we are on, so it would definitely add fuel to Gary's Theory if it pans out as this weekends' storm did. I am most impressed as you were almost dead-on with predicting this powerhouse storm more than a month in advance. It is almost unbelievable. Where can I get a scientific hardcopy of the LRC? If you go 4 for 4, I am sold hook, line and sinker! Way to go guys!

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TW,

Thanks for checking in. It is amazing that Gary broke the 'Weather Code' and we can now see how the longwave ridges and troughs will line up through almost an 8-9 month period! Somewhere around April 7-8 the pattern will repeat. The next time around it may be much more interesting!

Jeremy

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Fantastic coverage on a storm that could have done just about anything. Although I have to ask if this surprised Gary as he was saying that he felt it would be too cold to support severe weather. Anyway, I'm not sure if you guys would know, but climatologically what is the earliest tornado for the region? This seems relatively early in the season and hopefully bodes well for an active spring (though without injury--I hope). Thanks again for all the fantastic work you guys do.

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Mike,

Tornadoes have occurred in every month in both Kansas and Missouri. I was searching for the breakdown of month by month totals but couldn't find it. When I worked in WI the State Climatologist had a fantastic site! I'll keep searching for more tornado facts...

Jeremy

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Hello weather team great job with the last storm. Hoping to see a little bit of flurries in the morning? About the storm for the middle of the week how is it looking. On another note what information do u need so i can become a storm spotter for the station. Thanks.

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Daniel,

Email Gary about beeing a spotter. His email is:
glezak@nbcactionnews.com

We'll have to keep a close eye on Thursday.

Jeremy

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Gary and The Weather Team:

Good Morning!! Sitting at 29 this morning under cloudy skies-yesterday had that early March feel to it-low clouds-strong winds from the North West-not frigid, but cold enough to get your attention!!

Well, it is Monday and it looks as if we have another storm to track for later this week-wow, what an active winter we have had!!! If I am reading things correctly, this fits very well with the renforcing cold shot we had around December 8th-that time the ULL stayed up along the US/Canadian border but it is there and the 500 ht. maps are very similar to what is forecast and December 8th. I have resigned myself that later this week is our last real shot at an all out winter storm. 1. The LRC says we are heading into the December cycle which was quite warm 2. Combine 1 with the climatology of March-warmer average temps. and highe sun angles-this may just be it. Oh sure, we can have a freak deal and have had in the past but one of those December lows would have to something freakish-better to prepare the snow lover in me that Spring is drawing close!!! I also think that the storm this weekend with it's track was kind of a sign post that Spring will win out. It is time-we have had a great winter so as in The Matrix: Everything has a beginning and an end!!!!

All that being said, current model trends don't look to great for us here-it really appears that this will take a similar track to the one this past weekend which would put is right in the middle again!!! Again, it fits the LRC so to me that again is what is so amazing about all of this!!!! At least there is something to watch this week!!!

Have a great day-I will echoe sentiments already posted that you and the team did a great job this past weekend-great analysis as always!!! What a storm to watch!!! Take care

Bill-wishing for one more winter storm-in Lawrence
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Bill,

Yes, but it could be quite frustrating. An amazing stat. Omaha, Nebraska has been missed all season until recently and suddenly they are up to 22 inches with another storm looming. In the end only a small area around KCI to near Lawrence will have been the only area to not get hit head on by a winter snow event. Amazing!

Gary