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I'm a little disappointed to hear that the threat of severe thunderstorms may be diminished, but even with the track of the upper low going further south(suppose it does even), is there still a good chance of thunderstorms at least being below severe limits? I know it's still a little early still but I live for storms. I love them. Another thing. I think this storm may have a similar resemblence to the November 27th, 2005 storm. Powerful upper low. Just barely marginal temperatures but still several tornado and large hail reports...I remember i got lots of hail damage on my car that day. Let me know what you think and if this scenario is possible, probable, etc... GO LRC!
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Jonathan,

We have to watch this closely, but a further south track would limit the instability this far north. It does resemble the storm in late November 2005, but it is in this year's weather pattern and it will act a bit differently and it is late February. Let's see how it sets up.

Gary

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I was enjoying it until severe weather came into the picture! It's just too early!

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Gary,
i told you today the storm will trend south....
Later, ryan
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Ryan,

Yes, you may have been right. Let's see what the GFS looks like. And, I know what is being talked about.

Gary

Sweet

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That storm you are talking about in November is the same one that dumped 19 inches of snow on me, right? Maybe I am in for it again. But the question is will it be snow or rain. Good luck figuring this all out. Look forward to hearing and reading more about it. Keep up the great work.
Monica
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Yes, it is that storm. This won't be easy.

Gary

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Gary,
With the NAM tracking the storm farther south could this be more of a strong cold core storm with some dynamic and evaporative cooling involved. A very strong storm with good dynamics could produce some snows even with not that much cold air around. The 18Z GFS also looks like it might be tracking the vort a little farther south as I look at the 500mb charts. This will definitely be a storm to watch, and it looks like the weather pattern will remain active.
Devin
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Devin,

It will depend on the track. It appears this will really be a strong upper low.

Gary

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No, sir. I can't say I would be enjoying any more snow. If it ever snows again it would be too much! I do share your opinion that it would be best to wait it out another run or two before getting exited about shoveling the heaviest, wettest snow we would get if it did that. I still hold on to hope that the GFS will keep a north solution and secondly, that it is right!
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TW,

I prefer snow over severe thunderstorms. So, I hope for a further south solution. The battle is on.

Gary

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Gary and Team, it looks like you've raised the high temps for next week on Tues (40s) and Wed (50s). Weren't 30s in there for highs previously? I was all excited. I thought we might have been looking for a few to several days of highs in the 30s. I don't winter to end yet. And I want some more snow. However, these last couple of days have been nice.
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Jay,

The pattern is in strange transition into more of a March look. Confidence is low on the exteneded.

Gary

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So if this does indeed track south, would it become a major snowstorm for us? Or would the snowfall totals be kept in check by the warmer temperatures?

If the best possible snow scenario is only a few inches, I'd much rather see some severe weather. To me, it's never to early for a good thunderstorm.

Thanks for the update.
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Ryan,

Without cold air in place this storm will have to utilize its own cold air through the column of air. But, we have seen storm systems like this before. The amount of snow will depend on when it changes over. But, it could come down very heavily for an hour, two, or 6 hours. We just don't know yet.

Gary

Ryan Spencer

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Gary I forgot to answer your blog question about the weather pattern on my previous question. Yes I am enjoying this weather pattern I'm practically on my toes all the time. it seems in previous years I've been bored all the time but not this year!
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Jonathan,

Yes, it has been an exciting ride.

Gary

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1. How can anyone in their right mind be dissapointed that severe weather might miss us?

2. No, I haven't particularly enjoyed this winter, but then I typically don't, so there you go. ;-)
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Frank,

1. I agree, and 2. It is almost spring so you should be pleased soon.

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Gary:

Good late evening to you sir and the weather team!!!! What a beautiful day today was-I hope you and the team got to enjoy it-just about perfect weather for this area-warm and not too windy!!!

I have to admit, that I have not looked at an off model run yet-that begins tomorrow-I would of gone crazy watching this vacillate between Omaha and Joplin LOL!! That being said, my little 10 cent Hobbyist mind again has some thoughts that I hope make sense!!

1. I really think the first low will go over KC or just to our North. I base this off of the LRC and Climatology. In November, the first wave went over us (I think) and this time of year we kind of have to stand on our heads to get a first storm to go south of us-too much warm air. Also, the GFS and EURO both have a very similar track coming in over the area-the NAM has the similar 850 track as both and I wonder if the it won’t begin to trend North with the 500 low as well?? That being said, it will be interesting to see where exactly this comes ashore-if it comes ashore in Oregon or in Washington I think we are in trouble-if it comes in over central California, then the game could be a foot. If it does happen to track south and we get the snow, it could be as Caesar said at Pharsalus: this is the big one-this is one power house storm!!!

2. Considering point number one, my thoughts turn to the possibility of a secondary low forming around Monday and Tuesday. Again the LRC and Climatology give us hope here. In November, while we had the sleet, the major snow came with the secondary low that formed in Texas. I have no doubt based on the LRC, that this will indeed happen. The question arises: how strong will it be or will there be enough cold air dig down to form a stronger storm behind the first one. The GFS is showing no love for sure as on the 12Z there was meek little skippy surface low skirting through Arkansas and the 0Z kind of even lost it. However, the 12Z EURO showed a 999 MB low sitting over Oklahoma on Monday with it tracking East. The Euro has had this and lost it and I would not be surprised if the 0z losses it again-I also have read where the EURO has an issue with holding too much energy behind departing storms. However, both the LRC and Climatology give some credence to the Euro's forecast. For a snow lover as myself, I just think we need that secondary low to form for us to get snow. It happened in November and historically this is how we get the big March snows.

These are just some random thoughts. However it all plays out, in the end, for me, the exciting part of this is A. it is weather-big time weather. B. It puts the 1,000th feather in the cap of the LRC (pretty heavy hat huh LOL)-that is truly exciting. Tomorrow is another day of watching-will be interesting to see where this exactly comes ashore and how it progresses. Many model runs to go but one thing, this will not be a boring weekend weather wise!!!! Thanks for reading, and have a great night!!!!

Bill-yes, I’m fired up-in Lawrence
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Bill,

Well, We must seriously understand that this first storm is the November 29th/30th storm. So, it could easily end up a bit further south. The Canadian model now tracks it through Southeastern Kansas. Watch out! And, it really doesn't matter that much where the trough comes ashore on Thursday. It is an evolution that happens later on that makes the big difference. The trend is south, but one more series of model runs is what has my mind occupied.

Gary

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WOW! This thing is looking neat!, the thing I wonder though, is the 500 millibar level for this storm is looking eerily close to that of its Late Nov. 06 counter part, is it still possible we get that "north side cut-off" of precip, at least during the comma head? I know the models would say that I don't have to fret about that but the ULL looks awfuly close to the November one, then again the November one had an Arctic High to it's north and so maybe this is what the November one PROBABLY would have done IF there wasn't the arctic high at the time?
Thanks for your time.
Nick, (ecxited about the storm) in St. Joe!!!
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Nick,

Anyway you look at this storm it is impressive. But what will it do for us?

Gary

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Gary,
I have to say that in the 10 years I have lived in the metro, I have watched ALOT of weather forecasts. Since 1999 I have pretty much watched 41 exclusively. I have the weather line programmed as a speed dial on my phone and listen daily, sometimes several times. You and your team are the yardstick all other forecasters are measured by.

My nephew has always been terrified by storms. Over the last couple of years, I have let him know that I am just as scared as he is (traumatic events in childhood). Now we check your forecasts together, and he has confidence that if there is something bad predicted by you overnight, I will get him to safety.
He is 12 and really looks up to you, Gary. Even talks about becoming a meteorologist when he grows up.
Thanks for the positives...
Tracy
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Tracy,

Thank you so much! Tell your son hello from our weather team. We will keep you updated on this storm all weekend long.

Gary

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morning all,
i'm just curious as to when the storm is expected to fire up. i see there's 50% chance on friday.... any idea at all on when you expect to see this develop? new data coming around 8:30, so do you think you'll have a better picture on this later this morning?

i'm done with snow/ice stuff. bring on the rumblers!! - mike
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Mike,

There is a chance on Friday with a lead wave. The main storm approaches Friday night and Saturday morning.

Gary

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Good Morning Team:

It is Brian from Overland Park...

This storm that is going to hit us over the weekend has been welcomed by some in California. In a state where precipitation, both rain and snow, has been lacking for much of the winter, this storm will bring some needed relief.

The details I heard yesterday have changed very little today. Over an inch of rain fell in the northwest corner of California yesterday around Arcata, and a generally 1/2 to 1 inch rainfall can be expected in the lowlands tonight through Friday as the rain moves south. There will be some local amounts a little higher. The west-facing slopes of the coastal mountains and Sierra range could get as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain.

As for snow, the ski enthusiasts have to be jumping up and down with anticipation. The Sierra resorts from the Tahoe area south to Mammoth Mountain should get walloped with 2 to 4 feet of the blessed white stuff. The southern California resorts are in line for a foot or two. The only problem this kind of snow brings is in getting to the resorts. Chains will certainly be a necessity. With snow levels dropping very low tonight and by tomorrow morning problems on the roads are going to be found at much lower elevations than usual. Snow levels drop to 1,500 to 2,000 feet in the north-central Sierra to 3,500 feet in the Los Angeles and San Bernardino County mountains. That means passes over the mountains, even the coastal mountains, will have some snow. Travel may be especially affected on the I-5 through the Grapevine and over the Cajon Pass on the I-15 lading to Vegas. Those are the details that I have read about from various sources.

Now, based on Gary's theory, I believe there are several scenario’s for this storm. I know the track is still uncertain, but a major BLIZZARD is possible across parts of Kansas, especially western KS. If this thing tracks just a little further south, the blizzard could impact much of Kansas. I feel Winter storm watches will need to be issued by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. Again, the exact storm track will determine where the possible blizzard will hit.

The second scenario we could have a major outbreak of severe weather, especially SE of KC, into MO. I see there is a slight risk of severe weather, but given the time of year, and other elements coming together, I am wondering if a High Risk should be issued? I understand that a high risk usually means really big storms, but I am wondering because of the time of year, if this warrnt’s this? My fear is that this may once again impact Florida the first part of last week much like it did on Feb 2nd, and I would hate to see a repeat of that situation where so many people were killed.

There is also some indication this could be a major ice storm for parts of the country. This winter has been very active (and the winter forecast in some cases did not call for a active winter accept Gary's) and based on what I have heard, I do not see much of a change in the coming months.

Now, I realize that all of these possible impacts depend on the exact track of the storm. What I have noticed is that the storm may head a little further south which may give us snow. If this storm does what the past storms have done, we are in for it. Based on Gary's theory, and based on what we have already seen this winter, nothing would surprise me.

Now, I hope most people truly understand that this is a "forecast." Things can change. However, I do beleive this storm will produce something for most of the metro area. Now, that is my "forecast," and Gary is much more qualifed than I am - but what do you think Gary?

Brian - Overland Park
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Brian,

There is almost no chance of an ice storm. You must have a cold low level air mass in place for this type of a storm and it doesn't exist. And, the threat of severe weather is much lower than the SPC is letting on. It is only February and in our region it will likely be way too cool. Down across Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas there is more of a chance. Maybe extreme southern Missouri.

New data is coming in.

Gary

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thanks gary! not a big deal but have to get the basset hounds out to the vet tomorrow and want to avoid trying wrangle these two in the rain! you know how it can go with two dogs, tho' yours are likely better trained! have a great day! - mike

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Great winter with three snow sledding events and one huge igloo in November- I'm now ready for spring time severe storms. This has been a fun pattern so far.

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Dan,

The winter has been exciting...just as Gary predicted. This weekend is not looking very good for severe storms in KC. I'm sure we'll see some severe weather during March!

Jeremy

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you know i think it so neat how we can go from storms to snow in like a 12 hour or less period. i love both ends of this storm, storms then snow.
do you think we may have a big snow with this one or just maybe more rain out of this storm?

thank you
nikie

*****

Nikie,

The storm looks like a lot of rain...and maybe a little snow. If it moves a bit farther south the snow chance would increase. Right now it appears the chance of severe storms is very small.

Jeremy

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Good mid morning Gary and the Weather Team!! In my planning period-am I planning-no-I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and NAM-will I ever learn!!!

Man this is exciting!!! Both NAM and GFS appear to be sticking to thier guns-this is going to be fun to watch!!! Which model will verify in the end.....

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The NAM gives us some snow...while the GFS is a bit farther north with the low and snow.

Jeremy

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Thanks Gary! I read a blog on one of the other stations that suggested a major outbreak of severe weather. Although I read that this morning after I posted my thoughts. That is why weather is a hobby for me. LOL. :-)

Later,
Brian
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Brian,

Well, read that at your own risk. The chance is extremely small of any severe weather around here.

Gary

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Well the 12Z runs are out and the GFS and the NAM refuse to get along;)
Take midnight saturday night for instance, The GFS would have us close to being cold enough for snow,BUT we are dry slotted already. Now the NAM, it has cold enough for snow and a nice area of precipitation on the back side of the storm centered almost right on K.C. a.k.a., SNOW!! The 500 milibar level shows the disagreement well with one vort farther north and the other farther south, so who will win the arguement? well it's still (up in the air) I guess;)
Either way it looks windy and wet!
Nick(ready for the storm) in (mild) St. Joe!
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Nick,

We just need it to track further south. We have been through this before.

Gary

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Well…its digging. And will dig a bit more. The cold air is getting a bit stronger, and we still have to consider the longwave. Also seems like this storm will certainly bring enough of its cold air. As much as I want this to be a rain maker, I think I am leaning toward snow. We will have some rain leading up, but it will convert over and I think we could get quite a bit. Atleast with this storm, we just need to focus on two things: Cold air and track. No severe weather in this area [however..this may be the first tornado breakout of the season south/west of us along the dryline], no concern with getting any moisture. This reminds me of Nov when two days out, we thought the storm would track too far north per the GFS, and it dived at the last second and almost went too far south as the metro was split on the snow fall. This storm should be no different. As close as it is seeming like the previous, there is no reason to disbelieve it would follow the same track as many have been in this longwave all year.

First speak of amounts – 2-4 inches. If this digs further, expect this to double or triple.

One caveat…if..if I am wrong on the digging, then we better get ready for some stronger storms as I believe any NE movement of the vort will put us along the dryline before the falling into the dryslot.

I feel like this is a repeat of my last three blog entries..but I still stand firm on the digging. One difference is the models fooled me before…this time, I am standing firm.

Dig! And beware of the dryslot!
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Scott,

There isn't enough warm air anywhere near by for severe thunderstorms. It doesn't matter where the upper low tracks. Now, for your 2-4 inch forecast. I hope so, but we must have this upper low track further south. It may.

Gary

So what's the "NEW DATA" showing???

Pouring pea-size hail in Olathe (143rd & Pflumm) at 6:33 PM.

What on Earth are you thinking? You droned on and on about a rain storm instead of showing the most popular show on TV, "Deal or No Deal" .
Do you really think we are all going to tape the show at 2:05 am? This family will no longer watch Gary Lezak. He WILL be turned off immediatley.