« 2007 Cold Wave |
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Will there be a storm?
Good afternoon everyone,
I am on my way to talk to second graders. I am bringing Stormy, as Breezy still has a few issues that we are working on. Stormy will hopefully put on a show after we talk about tornado safety. I am bringing the front page of the KC Star to show the kids how the smoke yesterday looked like a tornado.
There are three systems heading towards us.
#1 tonight: A fast moving wave coming through the Rockies ridge will likely produce 1 to 2 inches of snow north of Kansas City near the Iowa border overnight. Could it track a bit further south? Yes, and this is what we will be working on this afternoon.
#2: Saturday: A system, a bit stronger than tonights will likely produce a larger area of snow and it may go across the same northern areas. Could it be further south? Yes, and we will also be figuring this one out on our newscasts tonight.
#3: Monday: An even stronger and wetter system. Warmer air will be drawn in ahead of this, but another Arctic surge is likely going to be heading south from Canada at the same time. Watch out? This could be the right conditions for a big winter storm. But, where will the rain/sleet/snow line be. Right now the models have it near Kansas City. Oh, this will make it fun.
Click to enlarge (Stormy & I visit Overland Trail Elementary 2nd graders)
Posted by at February 8, 2007 12:28 PM
At last some weather to get excited about. Why did everyone make a big deal out of the fire yesterday? Everyone acted like a NUC went off, plus I could hardly see your forcast in that little frame. Looking forward to this weekend.
It was like the News Departments tornado. It did affect quite a lot of people so I think it was somewhat justified. I am just proud at how well our news team handled this breaking news situation.
Posted by: Michael at February 8, 2007 12:36 PM
well gary can you wave your magic wand and make it snow? well do you think rain,snow,sleet? do you think it will be alot more than our last big snow or ice event?
It is too early to tell.
Posted by: nikie at February 8, 2007 1:03 PM
I have a question. Where do you stand on the global warming issue?
I am playing catch up today as a lot of comments are coming in. Very briefly I firmly believe that there is Global Warming, it is being at the very least partially caused by man, and we should take this more seriously now!
Posted by: Frank at February 8, 2007 1:27 PM
Looking at the 12Z GFS line it would appear that areas north of I-70 would have the best chances at seeing more of the precipitation fall as snow for the Monday system than areas farther south. The 540 thickness line is nearly bisecting the area so it will be interesting to see how the models trend. Maybe KCI will start getting more snowfall so that the snow drought will end in northwest Missouri. Do you have confidence that KCI will maybe see 5-10 inches of snow for the month of February?
Oh, there is a lot of potential for Monday's storm, but it is too early to really think about specifics. This is a disorganized system that tries to organize right here.
Posted by: Devin at February 8, 2007 1:42 PM
A couple quick questions. As a weather fanatic, doesnt the KC area have to rate highly for the best place to forecast weather? With the severe weather and all it seems like there would not be a better place to be a meteorologist.
Second, Am I correct in thinking that the cold air will be over next week with the exception of the end of the month storm? I need to decide if I should go grab any additional firewood or not.
And a comment... I was at a resort near Branson last week and we had to drive through Springfield on our way down. The ice storm damage was incredible. Everybody had piles of limbs on their curbs or still on the ground under the trees. I felt very sorry for the people there in that mess.
As always, we Alaskans are praying for more snow :) You guys do a GREAT job, second to NONE!
Not for sure, but the end of the month set up should be followed by a week of very cold. We will see if it sets up like it did the last two times? And, Kansas City is a very exciting place to forecast the weather, but sometimes we need more to happen, like in Denver this season. Wow. But they don't get the severe weather we do.
Thanks for the kind words of support!
Posted by: Ken at February 8, 2007 1:49 PM
Whats your gut feeling on these storm's, think we'll get hit by all three, I know it's gonna happen on Monday big storm, just wonderoing Tonight and Saturday's Thanks
Monday is the most likely, but tonight and Saturday are strange and have to be watched. The computers insist that this is going north tonight. I should know by 10 PM on our newscast.
Posted by: Anne at February 8, 2007 1:50 PM
But will they be duds?
Posted by: David G at February 8, 2007 1:54 PM
Gary looking forward to some precip!! Had question your call sign is "new data". How often do you rec new data and is this just computer models or other data also Jerry in the northland
New Data is always coming in. The computer models are usually run twice to four times a day. But, when a storm is approaching, just looking outside, looking at radar and satellite, etc. becomes the new data.
Posted by: Jerry at February 8, 2007 2:04 PM
The cold air for Monday seems to be projected further south with each model run.
Can't wait to see if it snows!!!
It is a unique set up. I want to see how tonights runs look.
Posted by: Paul at February 8, 2007 2:04 PM
hi Gary, I have been reading your blog every day lately and I sure hope that the storms track a little south so that those of us south of the metro will get some snow. And you don't seem too sure about the storm Sunday through Tuesday yet, but you're 7 day forcast makes it look pretty big. I'am still exited about the chance of snow though.
I am pretty sure there will be a storm on Monday, but how strong, and who will get hit the hardest? This is why I hesitate.
Posted by: Brent at February 8, 2007 2:20 PM
Those who see all snow from all 3 storms could possibly see how much snow? Big snow storm as in 4"-8", 6"-12", more? What is the potential given the current ingredients?
Most computer models have this storm right now. And, it appears wet. If, IF it comes together as forecasted then someone could see more than 10 inches of snow.
Posted by: David Pollard at February 8, 2007 2:26 PM
Bring on the SNOW!!!
Posted by: Brian at February 8, 2007 2:38 PM
WOO HOO Bring on the snow!
That picture is so cute. How can I get you to visit my son's school?
I just need a request sent to Amanda Broyles, firstname.lastname@example.org
Posted by: Julie at February 8, 2007 2:39 PM
Hey Gary!!!! I know its still too early, but I was just wondering, if we do have a winter storm, will it produce anything for us south in Drexel? Thanx
You have been in these this season. So, probably yes.
Posted by: Adam at February 8, 2007 3:10 PM
Gary, I know that when it comes to the extended forecast that you do not use higher percentages for precipation unless you really feel like it will happen. So when I see 50% chance on Monday, does that mean that we can expect to see some kind of precipation on Monday be it snow, ice, rain? Also, I looked at the Weather Channel's web site to see if their forecast is lining up with yours - and of course it does not. They are predicting almost 50 degrees on Sunday. Do you see that as being a true possibility - even though it might be small? Mark
There is no chance of that Weather Channel forecast being right. None at all! Why even look at it, maybe just for fun.
Posted by: Mark at February 8, 2007 3:20 PM
Well I don't like the latest NAM for the chance of snow for tonight into tomorrow, it has it falling apart as it tries to move in, but those "snowstreaks" can be fickle anyway, I hope we get some snow, at least to jazz things up! This cold air would be a waste if it doesn't do something while its here, as I alluded to yesterday, here in St. Joe we have almost finished "stacking the cards" into the "house of cards" but there's a big truck rolling down the "highway" next to us, almost there...
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (cold, cloudy) St. Joe!
You will be very close to tonights snow. Let's see how it looks by 10 PM tonight on the newscast. I think it should show its teeth. Then, next week is scary for the usual spots that have been missed.
Posted by: Nick Rau at February 8, 2007 3:20 PM
so what is the chance for a big winter storm and if its not ot soon how much snow total to all the snow were going to get.
I would say 30% chance of a big storm, 70% chance we get some precipitation and a 0% chance for me to talk seriously about accumulations this early.
Posted by: jacob at February 8, 2007 3:48 PM
Wow, I see you have jumped to 60% chance. I was hoping for a warmup. We live in a private subdivision and our roads, which are gravel, have not been plowed or anything. They are still a sheet of ice!! I am hoping for snow which would give us a little traction, so what are you leaning towards-more sleet/ice or snow??
It is too early to tell which type at this point. More tomorrow.
Posted by: Kimberley at February 8, 2007 4:13 PM
This looks to be exciting over the next 5 days and beyond. Looking at some of the models, we will be in a very active pattern through the end of the month.
Will winter go out with a bang? We shall wait and see.
Oh no, Joe are you ready for winter to go out? We will see. I think there will be two to three more winter storms near by.
Posted by: joe at February 8, 2007 4:15 PM
Wouldn't it be amazing if all the ingredients came together and we got snow out of all 3 of these setups? Hey, a person can dream!
It is so close to doing it, but I doubt it. Let's hope we at least get one of the three.
Posted by: Marlina at February 8, 2007 4:42 PM
Gary and team-
You all are the best! Hoping for the huge winter storm! I've been sick all week, though, so it would kind of be nice to go on without school for another few days! Keep up the EXCELLENT work! Richard from Smithville!
We hope you feel better soon. Monday has potential, but I am not confident at all in it being "huge".
Posted by: Richard at February 8, 2007 4:49 PM
"Oh no, Joe are you ready for winter to go out? We will see. I think there will be two to three more winter storms near by."
Never!!! I am a huge weather nut and lover winter the most. Not a big fan of the cold, but if thats what it takes to get snow, I will take it.
I have lived here for 40 years and remember the good old winters. This year provided a taste of the past, esp since the last few winters have been so warm.
Cant wait to follow the trends this weekend.
I knew you didn't. I do agree with you. The cold is getting old, but if it is going to bring snow it is worth it.
Posted by: joe at February 8, 2007 6:19 PM
With which previous periods this winter would this potential upcoming storm line up, according to your theory?
November 10th to 15th lines up with the next week. We didn't have cold air available that time through.
Posted by: Jake at February 8, 2007 6:53 PM
You seem fairly confident something is going to produce Monday, so I decided to check all of today's GFS runs. I certainly don't like the trend it's showing for Trenton. This winter has been frustrating as far as snowfall. So far last winter at this time we had more snow. I do love the cold blast, however. Makes us appreciate Spring! Here's my forecast: Same old story. Trenton and the rest of far North Missouri will get an inch or two and Clinton and Nevada will get 8 or 10" and a nice glazing of ice. You know I'm right. I hope I'm wrong.
No, you have made a very good observation. This storm has no obvious features at all, and I don't like that. So, let's see if it is even showing up tomorrow. The new NAM has almost nothing anywhere on Monday, but it could be very wrong.
Posted by: Ryan at February 8, 2007 7:27 PM
We are now at a 70% chance of precip for Monday into Tuesday. What factors are in play for the steady increase? Do you antipate the chance to go up sooner than later?
Let's just hope I don't start decreasing the pop? I keep increasing it because EVERY computer model with one exception has a nice storm near by on Monday. But, that one model, the NAM, doesn't. It has been one of the worst models this season.
Posted by: Erin at February 8, 2007 8:01 PM
I see you have updated the Seven day forecast, with 50% on sat, and 60% for monday and Tuesday. Does this mean that you are confident on both of the Storms?
No, in fact....poof to the first one.....poof to the second one......and ???? on the 3rd one.
Posted by: Andy at February 8, 2007 8:39 PM
Can you tell me the times each model run comes out(in our time? i kno there is 00,06,12,18, however i don't know what time that is in our time.
00z is 6 PM and the models come out two to four hours after that time. So, same thing goes with the other times.
Posted by: Andy at February 8, 2007 8:45 PM
After seeing what you said about how KC would have to rate for weather, that made me think. Yes, you're right, Colorado and the Denver area dont come anywhere CLOSE to what we have for severe weather! While, I sadly guess, we dont come anywhere close for their winter weather season. So in a way were both even. They get Winter, we get Spring/Summer.
On to the snow. I know it's still 4 days off but, do any of the models show a November 30th type storm? I know I'll always say this when there is a big snow chance (big as in 70% or above) but only having 4.5 inches only so far this season here near Piper, I just dont like it. Im hoping for a major MAJOR storm like a 20" storm. But, I'd rather have that than maybe 7FEET like in upstate New York.
I don't like the trends and this storm has warning signs all over it. Let's see if we are losing our confidence or gaining our confidence in next weeks storm on Friday.
Posted by: Alden at February 8, 2007 8:52 PM
Hello Mr. Lezak, hows the snow looking for tonight up in Leavenworth? Any chance at all?
Probably only one chance early in the morning as a band of moisture moves across from the northwest.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at February 8, 2007 9:15 PM
Gary...these little ripples should hit north of us with little fanfare. They seem to be tracking a "new" or temporary longwave on the SW border of the polar low N of the Great Lakes. Watch the tracks..they are covering the same spots. I am not convinced we will get any good clipper action this year, and the polar low is a bit too far NE to bring it through a "longwave" over KC.
That being said, the SW vorts [sounds like a meteorlogical disease!] have been good to us. I am trusting the LRC, and throwing out the models right now. Something will be in the area on Monday. I think it is a nice set up, but need to see a growing low pressure before getting here. We will have the cold...trust it. Should be some slopping snow though, and the ratio should be pretty low...I would bet 3-5 to 1. As we get closer..we will really have to look at the Q...Until Monday, just some models teases...thats all.
These little ripples should have been here the past two weeks with a little snow here and there every other day. This is amazing that it is such a struggle.
Posted by: Scott at February 8, 2007 9:40 PM
My daughter is one of those second graders in the picture at Overland Trail. Thanks so much for taking your time to visit with them and answer their questions! My daughter came home from school just so excited about your visit and the fact that they were going to be on t.v.! Keep up the good work!
Say hi to your daughter. Stormy and I had a great time visiting with the kids yesterday.
Posted by: Tiffany Wingo at February 9, 2007 9:15 AM
Hey thanks 4 all of the saftey TIPS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Tyler at February 28, 2007 3:51 PM