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Winds of Change...

The storm that brought us showers and storms, heavy rain, lots of wind, and a big temperature drop is heading northeast tonight. Winds gusted above 40mph in almost all locations across the viewing area today.

Here are a few of the peak gusts.

KC (KCI) 44
St. Joseph 46
Lee's Summit 44
Olathe 47
Lawrence 44
Sedalia 45

Outside of a stray shower or some sprinkles, the focus tonight will be on chilly temps. The forecast low is in the mid 40s. Lows in Kansas City have not been in the 40s since March 22! That is pretty incredible because our average low is still 39 degrees.

After seeing clouds and on and off showers for the past several days Sunday will finally bring a dry and mostly sunny day to the region. Highs will also be pleasant...near 70.

If you are going to the Royals home opener on Monday expect highs around 80 with some sunshine. Don't forget the sun screen!

Enjoy your Sunday!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 5:34 PM | Comments (9)

"Saturday morning recap"

Good morning,

Jeremy will update everyone later today with some rainfall totals. If you have any for the entire week let us know. KCI airport ended up with around 1.5 inches. Some areas had over 2 inches. Overland Park had around 1 inch of rain this week. So, we are back to right around average or a little above for the year. This weather pattern continues to produce around average and I am anticipating that as we move into May and June we will get some even heavier rains. There were a couple of tornado warnings last night including one in Jefferson and northwest Douglas counties around 11 PM last night. But, overall we had very limited severe weather out of this storm system.

Look below at the surface map from around 9 AM this morning. This is a well developed surface cyclone that formed as expected in Oklahoma yesterday evening and is now tracking north northeast just west of us. The cold front will move through very soon and end any threat of thunderstorms. The severe weather threat will be well off to the east and northeast later this afternoon. The cold front will move through and temperatures will likely fall into the lower 50s and it will be a rather windy day.

Click to enlarge (Surface map at 9 AM Saturday morning)

Sunday and Monday look awesome with a strong cold front moving through Tuesday morning. We have a pretty good chance of a hard freeze sometime in the next 7 days. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 9:00 AM | Comments (10)

Severe thunderstorms have developed

Good evening,

A tornado warning has been issued for Vernon county. This is a very strong thunderstorm moving north into southern Henry county. We will be monitoring this cell closely. Otherwise a large area of rain and thunderstorms continues to move this way

Gary

Posted by at 7:41 PM | Comments (20)

"Friday afternoon thoughts"

Good afternoon everyone,

Just a brief update. I have looked at all of the data and I need more information. It is 81 degrees in northeastern Oklahoma. This is trying to head into southeastern Kansas and a very unstable air mass is developing south of us. Let's see where thunderstorms form later today. The main storm is quite impressive by late tonight, but the state line is again near the dividing line. We are on the edge of an area that could see a lot of rain and not much?

More later today as we see the developments. The bottom line on severe weather potential is SLIGHT. There likely won't be much severe weather in our local region. Oklahoma into southern Kansas will be the most likely spot as a surface low forms and moves north into Kansas.

I played an April Fools joke on Newsradio 980 KMBZ this morning and Mike Trainer, one of our bloggers fell for the joke as he was about to take his Bassets for a walk. I said it was going to snow on Sunday night and Monday and they fell for it. Below is a picture of his dogs.

Click to enlarge (Mike Trainers Basset Hounds waiting to go outside)

Gary

Posted by at 12:49 PM | Comments (16)

Rain this morning then more tonight, but how much?

Good morning,
A crazy night in KC. KCI got 1.11 inches of rain. A record rainfall amount for March 30th. Most of that fell in an hour or two. This morning, several areas of rain over southern Kansas are tracking along I-35, headed for our viewing area. So, keep an umbrella or a raincoat handy until 10a.m. and in some places til noon.
This afternoon we should dry out for a couple hours but a thunderstorm complex should form over Oklahoma later today and head for K-C. The severe weather threat will remain almost non-existent today if we stay cloud covered, if we get some breaks in the overcast then the chance for a thunderstorm or two that produces some gusty winds or hail will go up to a whopping 15%, Oh Boy!
As for the heavy rainfall, will we get it? The models are slightly different. The NAM is slower with the upper low and brings it farther south and east. Look below at the GFS, it is slower, keeps the rain around longer into Saturday and takes the heaviest rain over eastern Kansas and keeps flooding rains out of metro K-C.
Click to enlarge

I think this scenario is very possible given the trend and the slow nature of the main upper low.
One of our in house computers on its overnight run, reduced rainfall amounts for Kansas City and nearby suburbs to a quarter inch for tonight while it upped Manhattan, Kansas to two inches of rain. So now two models are favoring a westward track of the heavy rain.
If you live out east toward Warrensburg or Sedalia or Marshall. I feel your frustration, hopefully it will change as we head deeper into Spring.
Have a great weekend,
Brett

Posted by at 7:02 AM | Comments (9)

"Lightning and thunder"

Special weather bulletin

8:22 PM and thunderstorms have developed near Overland Park and they extend south to near Paola in Miami county. These are developing just ahead of an area of rain and thunderstorms that hasn't started weakening yet. It appears we will have a nice soaking over the next few hours. New data is just rolling in on the next two days. I will try to blog later this evening after the 10 PM newscast.

Posted by at 8:21 PM | Comments (17)

Rain already weakening"

Good evening everyone,

The large area of rain to our south has weakened a bit. I am beginning to think we will only get a two to three county wide area of rain tonight. Let's see how this evolves and I will update the blog later this evening. Right now I am expecting about 1/4" to 1/2" out of this band. This is such a battle to get it to rain over our local area.

Gary

Posted by at 6:25 PM | Comments (3)

"Oklahoma thunderstorms heading our way"

Good afternoon everyone! Look below:

Click to enlarge

This is a large complex of thunderstorms heading our way from Oklahoma. It should arrive overnight. Will it hold together and what can we expect? The severe weather threat will remain very slight. There could be very heavy rain, lightning, and some small hail as it moves through later tonight. Then we get a break before the next chance on Friday night. After this storm goes by there is a VERY cold air mass building in Canada for April. We will have a chance of a freeze next week. I will blog this evening with an update. Right now we have a lot of work to do to get our show on the air.

Don't worry about severe weather right now. There is a strong line of thunderstorms just southwest of Trenton at this time. Amazingly it somehow developed north and east of most of Kansas City. We had a few downpours, but nothing like the line up north right now.

Gary

Posted by jnelson at 2:46 PM | Comments (9)

Overnight Developments

Good Morning,
The Storms Predicition Center says 65 tornadoes possible touched down last night throughout the central southern plains. Two people were killed in Oklahoma. The severe weather threat shifts a little east today but the slow nature of the main upper low spinning over the four-corners this morning keeps the main threat just west of KC.
The "SPC" map below reveals a 30% chance of hail over Nebraska southward into Central Kansas.
Click to Enlarge


While this map points toward a 5% chance of tornadoes over much of the same.
Click to Enlarge


Still there is a slight risk of severe weather later today, this afternoon here in KC.
I am sure you will also notice these two maps include a 15% chance of hail in our viewing area and a 2% chance of a tornado. Still, those are low probabilities.
We still think the best chance of severe weather is late Friday night into Saturday morning, there could be some heavy rain but we'll have to see how it sets up tomorrow.

Have great day,
Brett

Posted by at 7:38 AM | Comments (23)

"Rain and severe weather potential"

Good afternoon everyone,

Low clouds and fog "advected" in from the south southwest. This is what we call "advection fog" because it didn't develop over us it moved (advected) in.

When the week began we thought there could be a lot of rain. Looking back further, last week also looked quite wet. Well, we are sort of still waiting for a widespread heavy rain event. I think it is coming, but where will the heaviest rain fall? I am expecting everyone to get 1/2 inch of rain at the very minimum by Saturday but a few of us may get close to 3 inches of rain. Look below at the evolution of this storm.

GFS 500 mb valid Friday morning

The above map shows the upper level low with all of its features. It has many disturbances rotating around it. The first one is passing through us by this time on Friday morning. Between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning at least one round of showers & thunderstorms will likely have passed through. Then, below you can see the surface low forming on the cold front in Oklahoma. This surface low is now forecast to track over the KS/OK border to near Kansas City by 3 or 4 AM Saturday. This is being created by a strong wave rotating around the main upper low. This will likely produce some severe thunderstorms and a band of very heavy rain.

GFS surface valid Friday evening

GFS surface valid Fri Night/Sat Morning at 1 AM

Finally, the map below is the NAM forecast rainfall by Saturday morning. The GFS has similar amounts with 1 to 3 inches predicted all around us. However, there are still some problems with this. My feeling is that the Kansas City metro area will have over one inch of rain before this is over. Severe thunderstorms will be somewhat likely with the main threat large hail with so many thunderstorms around. But, each day must be looked at closely. There will be some potential for an outbreak in Oklahoma into southern Kansas Friday evening. And, we will have to pay very close attention to this. And, there is also a chance late Thursday, but Friday looks more impressive to me.

NAM Forecast precip by Sat Morning

We will be making some special graphics tonight on the newscasts and then Brett and Jeremy will be tracking these developments on Thursday morning. The models should begin converging on what will happen. After this goes by a strong cold front will approach on opening day for the Royals. Right now it appears nice on Monday, but much colder by Tuesday.

Have a great day. We will get to your questions later.

Gary

Posted by at 10:53 AM | Comments (24)

"Hard to believe"

Good afternoon everyone,

An upper level system is moving our way from the south, but falling apart. It is not surprising that the rain hasn't been wide spread, but it still should have rained at least 1/4 inch in most areas and this just hasn't happened. There is some potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms later today as the main wave moves by so let's watch ESP closely. But, this has been a very disappointing storm system for rainfall production.

The next storm has potential to bring us thunderstorms. There may be a severe weather threat as well. Look below:

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow forecast for Friday night)

The above map shows the upper level flow forecast for 1 AM Frida night/Saturday morning. This is just another solution that has come out. Every few hours we get a different look at how this next storm will evolve. This upper level storm is taking on a negative tilt and beginning the formation of a surface low to our south. And, look up in the Gulf of Alaska. I drew in a squiggly line to show a ridge forming aloft. This will develop a rather cold air mass for this time of year as the pattern begins to go into a colder phase. This should affect us next week. A freeze could be the result. Below, you can see the surface valid at the same time as the above map.

Click to enlarge (surface map valid 1 AM Saturday morning)

And finally, to get our minds off of this frustrating weather for a minute look below. This is Breezy and Stormy watching TV Sunday night. The Apprentice LA is one of their favorite shows.
Have a great day. Maybe this weather pattern will stop its frustrating moves on us soon.

Click to enlarge (Breezy and Stormy watching the Apprentice LA on NBC Sunday night)

Gary

Posted by at 11:15 AM | Comments (15)

Morning Update

Good morning,
If you are rooting for rain, to clear the air of pollen, or water the lawn, this could be frustrating.
Look below at the Rapid Update Cycle Model or RUC for this afternoon.
Click to Enlarge


Looking at the precipitation key at the bottom of the map, it appears the rain falls on the northwest side of town but its not more than a few hundreths of an inch. The reason, the weak upper low in Texas looks to weaken further this afternoon as it moves south of KC. Just our tough luck today, still a better chance, as Gary mentioned in the last blog, later this week.

Have a great Tuesday,
Brett

Posted by at 6:30 AM | Comments (3)

Rain this week!

Good afternoon everyone,

The weather pattern is just fascinating me? Why? Because I have never seen anything like this before in my entire weather life. I have been watching 500 mb charts since I was a kid. Dr. George Fishbeck was my idol growing up in Los Angeles and he would show the 500 mb charts as he was so excited about a change coming our way. This weather pattern is still the same one that set up last October and November as it continues to cycle. One point I make in my theory is that "every year is unique", so this pattern has NEVER happened before. But, what is going on now is almost identical to what happened towards the end of December (in other words it is unique to this year and this year only). We are now getting to see the spring version of the pattern. And, watch this pattern, that is about to produce some wild April swings in temperatures and probably some significant rain, in July! An extremely weak version of this pattern will still exist and just when everyone else thinks summer is here, watch out.

Now to this week! A weak upper level system over Texas is sending an unstable airmass our way. We will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning this afternoon. The chance of heavier rain and thunderstorms comes in tonight and Tuesday with the severe weather threat not really there. There is NO RISK of severe thunderstorms according to the SPC (Storm Prediction Center).

Look below at the precipitation forecasts from the GFS. The first map is the 48 hours ending Wednesday morning. The second precipitation forecast is for the period ending Saturday night. If this verifies then we will have had around 2 to 3 inches of rain. But, there are various factors that are still a bit iffy that could completely change this potential. I will talk about these below the maps.

GFS Precip forecast between now and Wednesday

Precip forecast between Thursday and Saturday night

The turquois blue color is around 1.25 inches. The red is 2 inches or more.

Now, after this system moves by on Tuesday night the weather pattern has a chance to get quite interesting with the severe weather threat remaining very low, but the rain threat rather impressive. A strong system is forecast to blast into the Rockies, but then slow down and split into two parts. The southern branch wave could produce a lot of rain near by later this week, but the question is will it do what the GFS predicts? There isn't support from other models at this point. But, if you believe in my theory then I lean heavily in the GFS direction of an upper low closing off and slowly moving across. We should have a better feel for this within 24 hours. The map below shows the upper low that has formed, but remember this is still just fantasy.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 11:51 AM | Comments (21)

More Rain Chances this week

Good morning,
Spring has sprung in Kansas City. The trees are blossoming, flowers are blooming and we are getting the much needed Spring rains. More rain is possible this week. Today is tricky in terms of the timing of the rain. When forecasting, most of our errors come in timing. Think about it, how many times have you said, "I thought it wasn't supposed to rain until tonight, or this afternoon"?
For instance, today there is a chance of rain. An upper low in Texas will send weak disturbances our way and one could arrive as early as this afternoon. As you can see below on the Rapid Update Cycle model, or the RUC, scattered rain showers are in the metro area by 3pm.
Click to Enlarge


They should be widely scattered so I don't think everyone gets rain this afternoon but by this evening, it appears a more widespread area of rain moves, but with that said the rain amounts still look light, a quarter to a half inch.

Okay, later this week a strong cold front moves into the region. It brings with it a slight risk for severe weather but it looks like it would be more a line of severe weather then rotating supercells.
It also appears there is a chance to have some heavy downpours if a wave develops along the front.
Below is the latest precipitation map for Thursday night and Friday morning.
Click to Enlage

We will keep an eye on it. Should be a fun week.
Brett

Posted by at 6:18 AM | Comments (7)

First 80 & More Rain Chances

I hope everybody enjoyed the weekend and the May or early June-like temperatures. Today was 80 degrees at KCI...this was the first 80 degree high temp since last November 8. Most areas southeast of the metro remained in the 70s today with a good deal of mid and high level cloudiness. Expect Sunday's dry weather to remain in place tonight with lows only in the 60s! Hard to believe our overnight lows have been warmer than the average high for this time of year!

More rain chances head our way this week. The first chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday into Tuesday as upper level low pressure sits over Texas. We are on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. So once again it is likely that some parts of the viewing area will miss out on the rain. Our in-house computer model keeps rain totals fairly light with around 0.25" to the south of KC and only a few hundreths north at St. Joe. Keep in mind if thunderstorms develop and hang over any one area for 30 minutes or more there is a good chance that more than 0.25" could fall.

The other rain chance this week is Thursday into Friday. A rather strong cold front will push through the region by early Thursday. The question with this system is whether or not another wave forms over the southern Plains and moves up the cold front on Thursday Night and Friday. This is something we'll watch closely heading into this week.

While not everyone will get wet on Monday...at least some locations will see some welcomed rainfall.

I'm not sure how many people enter NCAA pools for fun or office bragging rights, but somehow I have all four of the Final Four teams correct on my bracket. Too bad my early picks were so bad that I'm basically out of the running!

Have a great week!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 9:00 PM

Evening Showers? A Warm Sunday

I hope everyone has enjoyed the May-like weather we experienced today. Outside of a weakening area of showers that pushed through the viewing area between midnight and 8am, it has been a dry day. That may change for a few people as an area of isolated showers is moving north-northeast around Emporia and Topeka. If the showers hold together they will arrive in the metro area around 6pm. These would stick around for maybe 20-30 minutes, so you can still sneak in an evening bbq. Rain totals over the past 4 days have varied greatly across the region. I've heard of totals near 2" and others of around a tenth of an inch or less. If you have a total for this week and would like to pass it along I'll try to use some totals on-air tonight at 10pm.

After the isolated showers and cloud cover exit the region, the focus will shift to an unseasonably warm Sunday. Highs in most areas will be near or above 80 degrees. With the warm front well to our north on Sunday(over Minnesota & Wisconsin), it should be a dry, windy, and warm day. The record high on Sunday in KC is 90 degrees set in 1907, so there's no threat of breaking a record. Although it will feel summer-like!

The next chance of showers and storms will arrive Monday afternoon and evening. Hopefully everyone picks up some decent rain then. If you are watching hoops today and miss the 5pm news, tune in at 10pm for the latest model data and updated forecast! Enjoy your weekend!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 4:15 PM | Comments (10)

"Shifting weather pattern"

Good Friday afternoon everyone,

It has been raining with 1/2" to 2" amounts through the region. Most areas are in the 1/2" to 1" range. At least it is raining. And, there has been very limited severe weather with this set up. It just hasn't come together. We still have to monitor every day for changes, but I don't see any serious threats of severe weather anytime soon. The chance for mid next week seems slim, but the lower levels will be somewhat primed with near 80 degree temperatures around. The storm approaching may take most of the energy well north of us.

It is after this midweek storm that the weather pattern goes through a major trasformation. There will be more energy moving into the flow as the northern jet stream begins dropping southward. A cold air mass may be generated in Canada that we must watch as April approaches. This is a very unusual weather pattern, but at the same time it is the "same pattern" that set up way back in the fall. What will the April version of this pattern produce for us? We don't know yet, but I am anticipating some wet scenarios.

We aren't done with this storm yet. Look below at how it splits into two pieces:

Upper level flow today

Upper Level flow Sunday

Upper level flow Tuesday

We will have to watch the second piece dropping south of us for thunderstorms on Monday. And, a disturbance coming out of the main upper low could bring us a band of thunderstorms on Saturday. The severe weather threat will be near the frontal boundaries which will be shifting north into Nebraska and west into north central Kansas. If I were going chasing I would be heading to one of these regions. For us the severe weather threat remains slight at best.

The last map shows the strong system coming into the west coast. This is the one that could bring some severe weather to the plains, but it appears it will eject well north of us.

Have a great day! I will be tracking this tonight on the 5, 6, and 10 PM newscasts. And, Jeremy will keep you updated over the weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 12:01 PM | Comments (15)

"Weakening front"

Good evening everyone,

Thank you for all of the kind comments on the weather special. We will be posting it on our website by tonight or at the very latest tomorrow for you to see it if you missed it.

Look at the surface map below:

5:30 PM Thursday

The front is still there in a weakened state just south of Kansas City. There is a disturbance coming out of the big Baja California upper low. As this approaches we should have a nice band of rain with a few thunderstorms come across the region later tonight.

After this moves by, the front should lift north into Iowa and wash out. The main upper low will then eject over the weekend and will bring us more chances for rain. The threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low with this system, but like I always say, let's see how each day sets up. The better chance of severe thunderstorms will arrive mid next week. We could be near 80 degrees next Wednesday. Even though I am expecting some severe weather with this system, the questions are there. Will it be more concentrated west and well north of us? Well, it is just too far away.

Then looking further down the road the weather pattern has a very high likelyhood of producing a cold April outbreak. And, a late freeze.

Gary

Posted by at 5:53 PM | Comments (13)

"Early morning thunderstorms"

Good morning!

Thunderstorms are scattered around this morning. The 6:15 AM and 7 AM radar images are below:

6:15 AM radar

7 AM radar

Some hail up to about 1 inch in diameter has been reported this morning between Lawrence and Kansas City, KS.

The front has passed through and will stall south of Kansas City today. Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the front, then tonight they are likely north of the front as it begins pushing northward allowing for a warmer Friday. We will have more specific details later. The rain may still be rather scattered.

Posted by at 6:24 AM | Comments (29)

"A front approaches"

We hope you enjoyed the weather special. Now, we can look ahead to the severe weather threat on Thursday. There is a cold front approaching. But, it is forecast to stall and become stationary right near Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. Look below at the front this evening:

645 PM surface map Wednesday evening

As discussed in the previous blog there is a storm forming off the Baja California coast. We are in the flow around this storm. This southern branch of the jet stream is pulling in a lot of Pacific moisture and a few weak upper level storm systems. With the front stalling right near us there will be the potential for training of thunderstorms. It is a rather unique set up and we will have to see how it looks in the morning. Where will the front stop moving?

Have a great evening. We will be tracking this tonight at 10 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 6:59 PM | Comments (23)

"Split flow" and "Extreme Weather"

Good morning everyone,

Don't forget our special, "Extreme Weather". It is on tonight right after Wheel of Fortune at 7 PM! We will be remembering the Ruskin Heights tornado, the February 28th outbreak, and showing some fascinating tornado footage from the EF 5 tornado that cut through our region on May 4, 2003. And, I will be issuing our spring weather forecast towards the end of the show.

Yesterday's rainfall may have been rather disappointing if you wanted more than 1/4 inch or so, but there are more chances in the forecast. Even with these chances the forecast is not easy at all. We are caught between two streams in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Look below:

500 mb flow valid at 1 AM tonight

500 mb flow valid at 1 PM Thursday

The top map is valid at 1 AM Thursday morning. I have circled the northern branch wave that is rapidly moving across in a west to east flow up there. You can see the cut off low that has formed near Baja California.

The second map is valid at 1 PM Thursday. The northern branch wave has said "good bye" and is quickly moving through southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes. We are even more in the southern branch.

So, how are these two streams interacting? The northern branch wave, as it rapidly moves by, is bringing a cold front down into our region. But, then this front gets left behind and the southern branch will want to "rip it apart", or perhaps weaken it and not allow any further southward movement. The front will likely stall right near Kansas City as a result. Where it stalls and moves and is positioned will be very important as thunderstorms will be most likely near this front for the next three days. This is what we will be tracking on NBC Action News during the next few days.

There is a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight, and the SPC has no risk for tomorrow. This front just weakens too much. But, we will have to watch it carefully. I mentioned in one of your comments last night that talking about supercells and tornado threats over two days out is just scaring viewers. We can discuss the potential, but this kind of serious discussion should wait until the day before to see if it is really setting up. As we go through the spring let's be careful about talking about severe weather risks one week away. Now, if there is a major storm in the forecast we can talk about it, but to get so specific is ridiculous. Let us know what you think. I know for many of you severe weather season is your favorite time of the year. So, I think you have a thirst for as much information as possible. We will be realistic in our discussions and if there is truly a serious threat we will discuss it. This situation for tonight, up to this point, has just not been that ideal of a severe weather set up for our local region. If it were to look more likely then we will go into all of the details. Right now the main threat is rain, thunder and lightning and NOT large hail and tornadoes. So why talk about it two days before hand?

Gary

Posted by at 6:46 AM | Comments (29)

"Not impressed with today's rain"

Good evening everyone,

The rain moved in about as expected, but it did not produce nearly what I was hoping for. Some areas may have had 1/4 inch of rain, but not much more, and most areas had much less. There is still a chance of another band forming this evening, but as of this moment it isn't developing. If we see any development then I will blog later on.

The next chance of rain comes with a front that comes through around Thursday morning. The models again have some pretty good rainfall forecasts of around 1/2 inch or more. There are other chances after this goes by. We will be going over this tonight on our weathercasts.

We have put on the finishing touches on our weather special "Extreme Weather". It will be on Wednesday night at 7 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 4:56 PM | Comments (15)

"A strong warm front"

Good morning everyone,

A strong warm front has set up near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. South of the front the winds are from the south and temperatures are in the 60s at 6 AM. This air will likely be here by 6 AM Wednesday morning. North of the front a cool air mass is in place and the winds are from the east. This is a classic warm front. Look below:

Click to enlarge (6 AM surface map)

Closer look

The red number is the air temperature. The green number is the dew point temperature. The black number to the northeast of each observation is the pressure: 244 at KCI airport is 1024.4 mb. The 194 in Tulsa is 1019.4 mb, or 5 mb lower pressure than at KCI. The barb is the wind direction and speed. Notice KCI has east northeast winds at 10 knots. Emporia has a 15 knots wind. The long line is 10 knots and the short line is 5 knots. One knot is equal to 1.15 mph. So, a 10 knot wind would be 11.5 mph. A 100 knot wind would be 115 mph. So, this is why hurricane force winds are 65 knots, or 74 mph.

A series of weak upper level disturbances will move across the region during the next 18 hours. This will force the warm front to move northward. As it begins to move the air will be forced to rise. Thunderstorms should become widespread south of us later this morning and then move in during the afternoon and evening. There could even be some small hail with some thunderstorms, but no severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

Today's forecast for temperatures and rainfall is quite difficult. Will it stay in the 40s or warm into the 50s? And, will we see 1/4 inch of rain or 1.5 inches. I lean into the heavier range. As we discussed yesterday, this is almost identical to the set up we had around December 20th. 1.37" fell on the south side that day with 1.1" at KCI. Amazingly, something similar could very well happen today.

Have a great day. We will be tracking this all day and update you later this morning.

Gary

Posted by at 6:43 AM | Comments (17)

"The LRC"

Happy Monday everyone,

We have had a cloudy day so far with a cold front about to move through. Some light rain showers have formed but are ending already. You will know when the front moves through as the winds will pick up from the north and push the cloud cover south of us this afternoon. The clouds will stop moving south as the front stalls over Oklahoma tonight. Then, on Tuesday the front will force its way back northward and thunderstorms should be the result. So, Tuesday still looks like our best chance of rain between now and Wednesday.

After Wednesday a storm will be forming. Many of you have been following the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) the past few months. Remember the theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern then cycles through July before falling apart in August. Now, I believe this is a major discovery and we have evidence that clearly shows that this happens every year without question. And, every year is unique. The cycle is not determined until we have gone through one or two cycles. By December or January when we begin a second or third cycle we gain confidence to what the pattern truly is. But, before this time, and as early as November 1st or so we can determine where the "long term" longwaves are located. Go back into the archives from the past two years and look at October and November entries.

Anyway, look below at the two maps. One is the forecast for Wednesday. The other is the actual map from last December 18th or around 93 days prior. We believe we are in a roughly 42 to 48 day cycle and this fits PERFECTLY.

Forecast valid Wednesday morning

Actual 500 mb chart December 18th, 2006

Now, remember this is just a snapshot in time. One day! But, it is not just one day that is cycling. It is every day throughout this roughly 45 day cycle, give or take a few days. There is no making this up. This is NOT a coincidence. And, even though Scott will say to not be amazed anymore, I still think it is amazing! And, before El Nino, during El Nino, after El Nino, and now the beginning of La Nina, the pattern is still "THE SAME". My point being that all of these ocean oscillations may influence the pattern, but something MUCH BIGGER is going on.....the LRC.

In December when the jet stream was strengthening this upper low closed off and eventually ejected out into the plains three days later. Now, with the jet stream beginning to weaken as spring and summer approach we can still expect a similar ejection, but the flow is a bit weaker so we may get very different specific results.

Don't forget about our weather special "Extreme Weather" coming up on Wednesday night at 7 PM. We are still putting our final touches on this special and we better have it done soon.

Have a great day! Tonight and Tuesday we will be tracking the warm front coming back which is sort of being induced by a system kicking out of the southwest. We are at an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday right now.

Friday Night Lights fans: "Friday Night Lights will be shown overnight at 2:05am the next Thursday morning if you want to watch or record it". I am fairly certain this means this Thursday morning.

Gary

Posted by at 11:08 AM | Comments (11)

A cold front is moving through

Good morning,

A cold front will pass through this morning with just a slight chance of rain. There was nothing on ESP:LIVE as of 6:13 AM, so the chance of rain seems very slim today.

After the front moves through there is a storm developing over the southwest, but very differently than yesterday's models were indicating. Look below at the 500 mb forecast for Wednesday night. The upper low is forming off the Baja California coast. This is way down there and if it closes and cuts off then it could make it tougher for widespread rain until it comes out. And, it could take days before it ejects out.

Click to enlarge (valid Wednesday night)

So, what seemed like a wet week may or may not be. After the new data comes out this morning we will update the blog with the trends. There is still a very good chance of rain and thunderstorms later Tuesday as the front lifts back to the north.

Gary

Posted by at 6:18 AM | Comments (13)

Stormy week? & Severe Weather insert

Good morning everyone,

I got the KC Star this morning, and the Severe Weather Insert is in there. It is a very small section that can easily be missed. I went through the paper 3 times myself before finding it. But, it is there.

The weather pattern this week will be dominated by a storm that has yet to form. We will likely say this another 50 times this year, "the storm hasn't formed yet". The amount of rain, thunderstorms, severe weather potential will depend on various factors, but the first one is how will the upper levels set up? Sometimes we talk about a storm before it forms and then it never does form. I am 100% convinced this storm will develop, but how? Look below:

500 mb flow valid Sunday evening

The above map is the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above the surface, valid this evening. Notice how the storm that will likely form is NOT EVEN close to being anything yet. There is a strong wave approaching the west coast and this system will begin the carving out of a trough in the southwest. The next map, below, is valid Monday evening. We may have already had some rain and thunderstorms by Monday but the storm is still NOT THERE YET.

500 mb flow valid Monday evening

Below, this next map shows that a trough has finally formed by Wednesday evening over the western United States. And, that first lead wave coming into California was NOT the wave that will end up diving into the southwestern storm. I hate it when meteorologists point to this as our next storm system, but then days later that wave is gone, but the storm is finally truely forming from something else. Will this developing trough move right across the nation? It most likely will NOT. Look at the last map in the sequence. The storm is finally spinning around over the southwestern United States and we will likely be fully under the influence of this system Wednesday through Sunday.

500 mb flow valid Tuesday evening

500 mb flow valid Thursday

Now, if you looked at all of the maps can you see how difficult this week is for forecasting the weather. There will likely be rain, thunderstorms, possibly some severe weather, and a lot of clouds to worry about. The evolution of the storm is very much in question. And, let's say one does form and drop into the west, will it then move out right over Kansas? When? These are the things we will be going over this week. If the latest GFS model is close to being right then we may see well over 2 inches of rain this week. Let's see how this evolves.

Have a great day! Let us know if you find the severe weather insert. Don't forget about the special "Extreme Weather" on Wednesday night at 7 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 11:36 AM | Comments (19)

Severe Weather Guide & Wx Update

I hope everyone is enjoying their St. Patrick's Day. If you head out tonight to celebrate, make sure to be safe!

Don't forget the NBC Action Weather Plus Severe Weather Insert is available in the Sunday, March 18 edition of the Kansas City Star. We have also been working on our Severe Weather TV Special, which will air at 7pm this upcoming Wednesday. Make sure your friends and family check it out!

This morning's rain, snow, and sleet moved through the area between 4am-9am. We had been talking about this for a few days now. Most of our viewing area missed out on snow accumulation, but just east of here there was a few tenths to about 3" of snow. Columbia, MO reported 1.8" of snow today. Temperatures were also varied greatly from east to west. Chillicothe saw a high near 40, while Emporia, KS topped out near 70. The dividing line of the chilly and somewhat mild air basically divided the metro area. Our WeatherNow temps range from 45 in Liberty, MO to 55 in Overland Park, KS as of 4pm.

The weather should be a little more strightforeward for Sunday. A general south wind takes over for Sunday and will help to push highs in the 60s across the region. A front nearing the area will give us a chance of a few showers and storms by Sunday Night and early Monday morning. Overall next week looks very active with several good chances of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the latest 12Z GFS is trying to keep the threat of rain around all the way into Friday. This will depend on how fast or slow the upper low moves through the region. There's no way to pinpoint severe weather this far out, so it is something we will monitor as the week progresses and keep everyone informed.

Make sure to tune into NBC Action News at 5 & 10pm this weekend for the latest weather updates!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 4:05 PM | Comments (3)

Snow on Saturday?

Good morning everyone,

This morning it is snowing in New York City. A major storm is hitting the east coast today through Sunday. And, for us there really isn't a storm, but there may be a band of rain and snow by early Saturday morning very close to us. Look below:

850 mb map Saturday morning

Precipitation forecast by 6 AM Saturday

The top map is the 850 mb level. Remember the surface is around 1000 mb. Why is this? 1000 mb is a pressure with "mb" standing for milibars. Remember the pressure is a measure of the weight of the atmosphere above you at any given point. As you step outside this morning you will have around 1000 mb of pressure on you and with gravity it holds you to the ground. 850 mb is around 5,000 feet up. So, when you go to Denver this is the amount of weight, roughly, above you there. They are around the 850 mb level. But, for us this is around 5,000 feet above us. And it is a very important level when we look at snow and severe thunderstorm potential.

Now, on this map I drew in an arrow showing the direction of the wind at 850 mb. The red and blue lines are temperature lines. We have warm air trying to force its way in here. This is what I would call weak warm advection. Compare this to the warm advection on the east coast. That is a big 850 mb low which I would call a snow making machine. Someone in New York will get 2 feet out of this one. And, for us, as you can see on the map below, there could be a band of 1/10th of an inch of precipitation move through. The blue dotted line is the 540 thickness line. Along and east of that line the precipitation could be in the form of snow briefly and this is right near Kansas City. We will track this weak disturbance on the shows tonight.

Yesterday I went to Pembroke Hill to talk with the 6th graders. Look at Breezy and Stormy's eyes. Stormy thought it would be better to keep her eyes closed. She was smart as Breezy looks "evil". They both did a wonderful job of performing their tricks. Breezy has a new one, she can crawl, and she is learning how to march!

Click to enlarge (Breezy, Stormy with a 6th grader at Pembroke Hill)

Don't forget Sunday's Kansas City Star! We will have our severe weather insert in the paper on Sunday. And our weather special "Extreme Weather" is on at 7 PM Wednesday night!

Have a great weekend! Don't drink and drive and Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Oh, one more thing! I have been promised that our blog will get the old look back by the end of the month! So, it should be more fun to visit. We will be having more improvements on our website as the next few weeks go by. It is not completely out of our control, but the only thing we can do is make suggestions, with your help of course.

Gary

Posted by at 7:07 AM | Comments (14)

Our weather special

Our weather special "Extreme Weather" is next Wednesday night at 7 PM, right after Wheel of Fortune. We have been putting it together with a lot of work left to do. Put it down on your calendar and pass the word. We will be going over the February 28th severe weather outbreak, the Ruskin Heights 50th anniversary, etc.

The sun came out today and it is has warmed up nicely. Amazingly, the northeastern United States is about to have a major winter storm. Somehow, our winter ended in February and I am not very happy about it. We average 2 to 3 inches of snow in March, but we see no chances at this moment.

Have a great day! We will remind you about the special!

Gary

Posted by at 3:29 PM | Comments (11)

Cold front is on the move

Good morning,

I had Monday and Tuesday off and I am refreshed and ready to go. I have been doing some analyzing of the weather pattern and it is amazing as we continue to cycle through the pattern that set up in October and November. More on this in the coming days, but the more amplified part of the pattern should begin within a week and then last for a while. This should provide us with some unique stormy set ups for rain, thunderstorms, and some severe weather potential. I don't have any specifics right now.

The only thing we can talk about specifically is a cold front heading our way. Below is the surface map from a few minutes ago at around 9:30 AM. The cold front is sliding southward.

Click to enlarge

This will pass through is this evening and it will be cooler for a few days. Some models have rain developing early tomorrow morning near by, but confidence is still low on the possibility.

I will talk to our webmaster today about all of the issues with the blog and web page.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 9:58 AM | Comments (10)

Tornado Safety

I hope everyone is enjoying the warm weather across the area. Highs on Wednesday will approach record levels. The forecast is 81 and the record high for March 14 is 82 degrees set back in 1935. Expect MUCH cooler weather for the rest of the week with mainly 50s for highs from Thursday-Saturday.

Severe Weather Awareness week continues with today's topic of tornado safety. Here is the article from the NWS.

IN MISSOURI...THE PEAK SEASON FOR TORNADOES IS APRIL THROUGH
JUNE...DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT
TORNADOES CAN OCCUR ANYTIME OF DAY AND ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR.
MISSOURI AVERAGES 30 TORNADOES A YEAR. LAST YEAR...2006...A NEW
RECORD WAS SET AS 102 TORNADOES WERE DOCUMENTED IN THE STATE. THAT
BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2003.

WHEN A TORNADO THREATENS...YOU MAY ONLY HAVE SECONDS TO SAVE
YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. HAVE A PREPAREDNESS PLAN FOR YOUR HOME...
SCHOOL...AND WORKPLACE. KNOW WHERE TO FIND THE BEST TORNADO
SHELTER.

IN A HOME...GO TO THE BASEMENT AND GET UNDER THE STAIRWELL...OR
UNDER A HEAVY PIECE OF FURNITURE. IF THERE IS NO BASEMENT...GO TO
AN INTERIOR CLOSET...HALL OR BATHROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THE MAIN IDEA IS TO GET AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. TRY TO PROTECT YOUR HEAD WITH
PILLOWS OR SOFA CUSHIONS AS IT IS HEAD INJURIES THAT OFTEN LEAD TO
DEATH.

IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...CHURCHES AND OFFICE BUILDINGS...GO TO
SMALL INTERIOR ROOMS OR HALLS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. AVOID LARGE OPEN AREAS WITH FREE SPAN ROOFS SUCH AS
GYMNASIUMS AND CAFETERIAS.

IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO GET TO THE LOWEST
FLOOR...BUT GO TO INTERIOR HALLS...BATHROOMS OR CLOSETS. STAY AWAY
FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

IN SHOPPING CENTERS...AVOID LARGE OPEN AREAS AND GLASS. SEEK
SHELTER IN BATHROOMS...SMALL INTERIOR SPACES AND BEHIND COUNTERS.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ESCAPE IN YOUR VEHICLE.

ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT LIE FLAT IN A DITCH. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDER AN OVERPASS.

Posted by jnelson at 3:47 PM | Comments (5)

Severe Weather Awareness Week

This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week for Missouri. Each afternoon this week I will post the topic for the day. The statewide mock tornado drill is scheduled for Tuesday, March 13 at 1:30pm. So if you hear the sirens tomorrow, it is only a test. But this is still a good time to at least think about what you and your family would do in case severe weather was heading in your direction. So far this year there have been 4 tornadoes in the viewing area, including 1 EF-4 tornado!

Jeremy

MARCH 12 THROUGH 16 2007 IS SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK FOR
MISSOURI. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD IT
OCCUR DURING THE UPCOMING MONTHS.

EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER PLAN INCLUDING SCHOOLS...
BUSINESSES AND FAMILIES. WHILE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STRIVES
TO ISSUE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS WITH ENOUGH LEAD TIME FOR PEOPLE TO
ACT...THERE ARE STILL SOME STORMS THAT FORM VERY QUICKLY AND STRIKE
WITHOUT A WARNING BEING ISSUED. HAVING A SEVERE WEATHER PLAN IN
PLACE CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH. YOU MAY HAVE
ONLY SECONDS TO ACT.

SOME OF THE THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN DEVELOPING A PLAN INCLUDE...

HOW CAN I RECEIVE TIMELY SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS?

HOW DO I DISTRIBUTE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS TO OTHER PEOPLE AT
MY LOCATION OR FOR WHOM I AM RESPONSIBLE FOR?

WHERE ARE THE SAFEST PLACES TO GO AT MY LOCATION? ARE THEY CLEARLY
MARKED?

DO I HAVE PLANS IN PLACE IF MY BUILDING OR HOME IS DAMAGED?

PREPAREDNESS PLANS CAN COVER MANY ITEMS...NOT JUST SEVERE WEATHER.
THE AMERICAN RED CROSS AND THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
HAVE INFORMATION AVAILABLE CONCERNING PREPAREDNESS PLANS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS OR SEVERE WEATHER WEEK
GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STLOUIS.

Posted by jnelson at 3:09 PM | Comments (10)

Evening Showers & A Warm-Up

A small area of showers has been hanging near Ottawa and Emporia on the Kansas side this afternoon. The showers are slowly moving northeast and may reach metro Kansas City as a few showers and sprinkles by 5-7:30pm. The upper low that has triggered the showers and produced the cloud cover in spots today is slowly moving south. This mean increasing sunshine on Monday and also a wind shift to the southwest. Monday will begin a warm-up which will push temps into the 70s for Monday & Tuesday, and maybe the low 80s for Wednesday. The record high on Wednesday is 82 degrees set in 1935. The last time Kansas City reached 70 degrees or better was on November 28.

The warm-up will end by Thursday as a cold front will return highs to more typical March levels.

Gary is off until Wednesday, so Brett and myself will be answering your questions on the blog. I hope everyone enjoyed the mild weekend and also some of the great college basketball games!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 4:18 PM | Comments (7)

A WET PLAINS STORM

We are currently monitoring our next storm system that is now tracking through the central Rockies. All of our latest computer data suggests that this storm will track into western Kansas and then drop south into Oklahoma and Texas (See map #1) staying well southwest of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. We will have some high clouds with highs in the 60s this weekend.

Even though we will miss the storm, .50" to 2" of rain is likely across western Kansas and all of Oklahoma and Texas. This is great news for the newly growing winter wheat crop. The last several years the winter wheat has been stressed due to drought. This year looks different.

MAP #1: VALID SUNDAY MORNING, CLICK TO ENLARGE

Posted by at 8:17 AM | Comments (7)

Rain ends and the sun is coming out

Good Friday afternoon everyone,

I will be at the IMAX theatre at the KC Zoo Saturday at 12:30 PM. "Hurricane on the Bayou" is premiering at 1:15 PM and it will play until Labor Day. I will be signing autographs and then introducing the movie at 1:15. Take the kids. I am not sure if it will sell out or not?

This afternoon will be warmer than I thought. Even though the winds are shifting to the north the sun is coming out and I think it will surge into the 60s. The weekend looks nice, but there could be some rain with that storm as it passes by to the west and south of us Saturday night. More on this later.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 10:23 AM | Comments (19)

Friday Storm System

Good morning everyone,

A storm approaches and our 80% chance of rain may go to 100% chance. As you can see below there is a deepening storm system.

Click to enlarge (500 mb valid Friday at noon)

Precipitation forecast valid noon Friday

You can see a weak upper low trying to form over the Kansas/Missouri state line on Friday. We will be watching LIVE:ESP early tomorrow as there is a good chance of an area of rain with thunderstorms possible to our west by 6 AM. They will likely move across much of the region on Friday. Another storm will be developing Saturday night. This one will really be evolving into a southeastern upper low and as it moves by could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

After all of this a huge warming trend is likely Tuesday into Wednesday with a strong cold front coming through on Thursday!

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:48 AM | Comments (20)

Weather pattern and El Nino influence

Good morning,

According to my weather pattern theory, the LRC, our weather pattern that we are currently cycling through set up between October 10th and November 10th. It continues today! It was supposed to be an "El Nino" winter. Which would have implied no long cold outbreaks and very wet conditions across the southern United States. These things didn't quite happen, but I believe El Nino did have different affects on this weather pattern that continues to this day. One amazing statistic out today shows Los Angeles with what will very likely be their driest winter EVER in their recorded history, with only 22% of average rainfall since last July (2.42" total). . This is a surprise to most meteorologists because El Nino is supposed to mean a wet winter in Southern California. Why didn't this happen? The LRC shows one very strong feature that continues today. There is a powerful "long term" long wave ridge near 145 west that has been one of the dominant features this winter and will continue to be into early summer. This has prevented almost every storm from making it to the Los Angeles area.

El Nino has faded and is now becoming a La Nina. El Nino and La Nina are temperature anamolies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is when the waters are warmer than normal and La Nina is the exact opposite when the waters are colder than normal. I believe that this influences the pattern but something much bigger is going on.

This winter our weather was likely influenced by El Nino. These last two big storm systems that had the winter portion of them track just north of us with major snow storms only missing Kansas City by a half of a state. If El Nino didn't fade, I believe these storm systems would have likely tracked a bit further south like earlier in the season. We may never know for sure, but I believe this may be the case.

We are currently in the December and January part of the pattern that was warm with a few storm systems. This is happening again. As we look ahead, if you believe in the LRC, then you should have confidence that the flow will become much more amplified again in the next few weeks. April and May will be stormier than this month. El Nino, La Nina, etc. won't matter as the pattern goes into it's more amplified phase in a few weeks. At least this is what I believe.

In the mean time, we have a series of disturbances coming our way. Look below:

Click to enlarge (500 mb valid Friday morning)

Click to enlarge (700 mb showing moisture)

There is a series of weak disturbances, not very organized, that will pass through on Friday. We are in diffluent flow aloft, see the arrows. The flow comes across Nebraska westerly, and across western Kansas and Oklahoma as northwesterly. When the air diverges aloft you must have some rising motion to compensate for it. And, there is moisture available so clouds are the result. Will we have rain and thunderstorms? There will be some in the area and this is what we will be tracking. Then, the second series of waves may be a bit stronger. As this #2 area comes through the west coast and over the Rockies by Saturday and Sunday a little twist in our forecast could be the result. An upper low will likely form over Kansas or Oklahoma and then drop in over Texas before lifting out Monday. If this happens, there could be another chance of rain over the weekend that we do not have in the forecast yet. And, this would keep it cooler into Monday.

More on these developments later! Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:48 AM | Comments (25)

Linn County EF4 tornado & changing weather

Good afternoon everyone,

A weak storm may affect the region on Friday. Thunderstorms are possible and we will have more on this storm on tonight's newscasts at 5, 6 and 10 PM on NBC Action News. Below is the report from the National Weather Service as the nations first EF4 tornado occurred right here in Linn County.

Linn County, KS Tornado is the Nation’s First EF4

Experts from the National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill, MO conducted a storm damage survey the following day, March 1st and have rated this tornado to have a peak intensity of EF4 on the new Enhanced Fujita Scale. This rating corresponds to wind speeds estimated to be between 166 and 200 mph. In addition to local experts, numerous other nationally recognized damage survey experts have also viewed the data and have all supported a rating of EF4 for this tornado based on the evidence available. (see www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html for more information on the Enhanced Fujita Scale)

Have a great day. We will have more on Friday's storm tonight or early on Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 3:22 PM | Comments (17)

KSHB is #1 in Forecasting

The Major League Weather Forecasting season has just ended. The final numbers for the one year ending February 28th are in! Remember now, this is not our opinion. These are the facts, just like the sports standings in the newspaper.

Weatherate.com is a company in Arizona. They started keeping track of forecast accuracy in 2003. KSHB-TV has been #1 not just in Kansas City, but also #1 in the nation in the category of biggest lead over their competition. And, you know that in this very competitive weather market that the other stations are trying. KSHB's winning margin this year is larger than the past two years.

Since this is not our opinion. We thought that it would be fine to show the final standings as if it were the Yankees & Royals. You can see who is in first, second, third, and last. Remember this is NOT our opinion, but fact.

Here are the final standings for the year ending February 28th, 2007:

#1 KSHB: 6.30

#2 Channel 9 (ABC): 7.31
#3 Channel 5 (CBS): 7.37
#4 Channel 4 (FOX): 8.09

Weatherate.com uses the 10 PM newscast each night and calculates forecast error with the lowest score being the best score. They take into account the high and low temperatures for the first four days of the forecast. Day 1 is weighted stronger than Day 2, which is weighted heavier than day 3, etc. They also include precipitation forecasts for rain, snow, and amounts. And, they factor in wind, clouds, and fog. So, this system has been devised quite well.

We know that a lot of you already know that we are the most accurate. For you this is just ammunition to show viewers of the other stations that there is a forecast that can be relied upon. So spread the word.

And, this happens on a big day. Today we forecasted 63 degrees (the high has been 64 so far). The closest forecast as of Sunday night to ours was 56 degrees. And, even this morning most forecasts still thought it would be in the 50s. I can see why so many people just don't believe meteorologists. We have been trying to prove that there is a forecast you can count on for years now.

If you have any comments, suggestions, criticism's, etc, we are prepared to answer them. We are proud to be #1 for the fourth year in a row!

The new season began on March 1st. All four television stations are tied at this moment, so everyone has a chance. Weatherate.com doesn't release the new standings until 6 weeks of data are collected. This solidifies a real leader by that time. Otherwise someone could win for a week but overall they fall back to where they should be. And, one more thing to note. In most almost every other television market the ratings are close. The lead by the #1 station may be .05 or .18. A 1.01 lead is huge and we are often the #1 station in the nation in this category.

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 4:28 PM | Comments (38)

Web page & warming up

Good morning,

We continue to work on our web page. Our Action Weather Blog icon will be back on the weather page soon and on our front page as well. So, give us another day or two, or hopefully not longer than this to get it done.

I don't like the look of our blog either. It was sharp, simple, and it worked before the change. I am going to work on getting that look back as well.

Now onto the weather. A weak cold front is moving into northern Missouri this morning. It likely won't pass through Kansas City until around 4 or 5 PM. Southwest winds ahead of the front should help us warm into the 60s.

Accurate forecasting. We will be posting the final numbers from Weatherate.com in a few hours as they are arriving today. Look for this later this afternoon.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (8)

Lunar Eclipse Photos

Here are some pictures of tonight's Lunar Eclipse from Jake Gontesky of Tognanoxie.

Posted by kshb-admin at 8:50 PM | Comments (11)

February 28th Severe Weather Outbreak

Good late afternoon everyone,

Below is the National Weather Service Summary from February 28th. There was one rather long track tornado that they are still assessing as you can see the picture below. Jeremy will answer any of your questions.

Click to enlarge (damage paths from the February 28th tornadoes)
February 28 Severe Weather Summary

Severe Weather Makes Early Appearance
Preliminary Event Report
28 Feb – 1 Mar 2007

The last day of February brought significant severe weather to eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding were caused by a strong storm system that moved into the region from Oklahoma during the afternoon and continued through the nighttime hours.

The dynamics from this storm provided extreme lift for a rapid development of thunderstorms in the early evening hours of February 28th. Low level moisture was initially limited but surface low pressure and an accompanying warm front moved into the region, increasing the low level instability. This warm front provided the focusing mechanism for storms to develop in the early evening. Increasing wind shear was also a major factor as a low level jet strengthened ahead of the storm and a 150 kt upper level jet was located just to the southwest of the area. This upper level jet also provided very strong upper level divergence which added another ingredient for the severe storm development.

Storms initiated along the warm front in eastern Kansas in the late afternoon/early evening. The first report of severe weather in the Kansas City area was received at 616pm, as 1 inch hail fell in Overland Park, KS.

The “main event� was a supercell which developed in eastern Kansas and produced a tornado in Anderson County (see www.weather.gov/topeka for reports from the NWS Forecast Office in Topeka) at around 645pm. This supercell crossed into Linn County, KS and produced a large tornado 4 miles north of Blue Mound. The tornado’s rating is still being investigated and will be updated on this website next week. One home north of Blue Mound was destroyed, with six more homes sustaining minor damage, and about a dozen outbuildings damaged or destroyed; trees and power lines were downed as well. Below are pictures of the damage taken March 1st from Linn County, KS. The resident of the destroyed home in the first several pictures took shelter in the basement, and walked away with no injuries.

Posted by at 3:23 PM | Comments (4)

Microblizzard.....Significant finale

Good late evening everyone,

Nick, one of our St. Joseph bloggers, describes the next hour or two as a "microblizzard". I will have to agree. It is going to snow and heavily for a about 30 minutes. Hopefully you will be up to experience this as it is accompanied by 50 mph winds or stronger. This is a wave rotating around the same storm that brought us the severe weather outbreak Wednesday night. Expect 1/4" of snow, or just blowing snow as this band moves through.

Below is the latest radar showing the band of snow coming in. This is along the Arctic front that developed during the day across Nebraska. What a week we have had.

Click to enlarge

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 11:42 PM | Comments (9)

A windy day and LUNAR ECLIPSE!

Good afternoon,

We will be able to see the end of a total Lunar Eclipse on Saturday evening as the moon rises. When the full moon rises around 6:11 PM in the east it should be in full lunar eclipse. Then we will see the end if the sky is clear. So, watch to the east Saturday evening and you may catch it around 6:30 or 7 PM.

Our weather is still being dominated by the storm that formed right over us and is now spinning over the Great Lakes. Parts of Iowa continue to be in a blizzard warning as the snow just blows around. 4 to 5 foot drifts formed in northwest Missouri around Nodaway county.

So, what's next? Not much, but a warm up. Sunday and Monday should warm up. There is no real sign of our next storm.

Don't forget the pet telethon! It is Sunday night from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM on 38 the Spot. Call in and donate if you can. Even if it is just $5.

Gary

Posted by at 12:28 PM | Comments (22)

March comes in roaring

Good afternoon,

Dirty cars! Some of you may wonder why there is brown spots on your car today. The last thunderstorms to move through around 1 AM were dirty ones. The storm was so strong that blowind dust and dirt from Texas was pulled into the storm and came down with the rain on those last cells. This may be the first time ever for those on the south side where you get 3 to 5 inches of rain washing your car, but then you still need a carwash.

2.57" at my place in Overland Park. It appears there were a few amounts close to 5 inches which fits with the rainfall estimates, and then there are others of less than 1/4". Amazing! The areas that have had the snow this winter got the rain. Any surprise? No, we continue to cycle through the same pattern. Last night there were a few locations that had 8 hail events, one with each passing thunderstorm. When I got home around 1 AM there were 3 inch drifts of hail in spots. And, now I-29 is closed north of St. Joseph due to blizzard conditions. If this storm would have tracked just a bit further south we would have had a blizzard here.

Winter isn't over yet and the snow season officially ends by early April. So, for you snow lovers out there hope is still alive for a little bit longer. Remember, the biggest snowstorm in Kansas City history occurred in March of 1912 with over 25 inches. So, it can and has happened before.

Before we concern ourselves with more winter we have some true spring time warmth coming our way. 60s and 70s are likely the first half of next week. And, I plan on taking Monday and Tuesday off to get ready for the next storm.

Don't forget the Pet Telethon is on channel 38 the spot from 6:30 to 9:30 PM Sunday night! I want the bloggers to call in and donate. If you do please mention you are an NBC ACTION WEATHER BLOG BLOGGER and I will say hello during the telethon. More on this later.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 12:15 PM | Comments (28)

A Historical Night!

Hopefully everyone stayed safe and avoived hail or property damage from the storms and possible tornadoes. If you have rainfall totals, storm damage reports, or pictures please send them our way and we will try to get them on the air and in the blog!

Send pictures to:

weather@nbcactionnews.com

and

newstips@nbcactionnews.com

If you post your rain totals and damage reports in the blog we will pass them along so everyone can see what the storm produced!

Now onto the historical aspect of the storm. We were looking back at weather records for KC and noticed that we have NEVER had a rain event like this in January, February, or March for the central and southern parts of the city. This event is extremely rare! But once again 10 years down the road when you look back at this day, the 'official' observation at KCI will say only 0.01" for February 28...AMAZING!

Here are some rain totals...

Overland Park(91st & Antioch): 4.80"
Far Southern Wyandotte County: 3.50"
Liberty(south side): 2.10"
Grain Valley: 1.10"

We look forward to seeing your pictures, rain totals, and hearing your stories from this storm!

Time to get some rest...

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 1:01 AM | Comments (39)