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 March 19, 2007

A cold front is moving through

Good morning,

A cold front will pass through this morning with just a slight chance of rain. There was nothing on ESP:LIVE as of 6:13 AM, so the chance of rain seems very slim today.

After the front moves through there is a storm developing over the southwest, but very differently than yesterday's models were indicating. Look below at the 500 mb forecast for Wednesday night. The upper low is forming off the Baja California coast. This is way down there and if it closes and cuts off then it could make it tougher for widespread rain until it comes out. And, it could take days before it ejects out.

72 hour 500 mb.gif Click to enlarge (valid Wednesday night)

So, what seemed like a wet week may or may not be. After the new data comes out this morning we will update the blog with the trends. There is still a very good chance of rain and thunderstorms later Tuesday as the front lifts back to the north.

Gary

Posted by at March 19, 2007 6:18 AM

Comments

**************
This thing should eventually end up coming toward us, it just may take longer, Now this is the December "cut-off" lows that I was waiting for, the LRC does it again!!!!
Nick in warm St. Joe!!!
-------------
Nick,

This is related to one of the storm systems in December and it will likely eject out by the weekend. Between now and then, with a front going back and forth, the forecast will not be easy.

I am hoping for a good soaking, but the chance is not as good as how it looked yesterday.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 19, 2007 6:57 AM

***************
Gary,
How does the weather look down near Warsaw, Missouri for tomorrow. My husband is going snagging for spoonbill by the dam and was wondering if there is a chance of rain down there. Thanks
-----------------------
Barb,

Snagging for spoonbill? I guess the Spoonbill is that bird with red legs?

There is a chance of rain Tuesday. Let's see what the new data shows.

Gary

Posted by: Barb McKinney at March 19, 2007 7:43 AM

************
Gary,
When on average is our last frost? Also on Sat. morning we had flat hard snowflakes that looked like star shaped candy sprinkles for cupcakes! Never saw anything like that in my life!
--------------
Audrey,

I didn't see any snowflakes, but it sleeted pretty hard. Columbia, MO had 1 to 2 inches of snow Saturday. We just missed it.

Our average date for our last freeze is April 9th. I am expecting this weather pattern to produce a good chance of a late freeze this year.

Gary

Posted by: Audrey at March 19, 2007 8:02 AM

***********
Gary-
Since the upper low is moving so slow, does that make our chances for severe weather more likely throughout the week?
Thank you
Daron
---------------
Daron,

No, the threat of severe weather would be even lower as the flow aloft is not very strong with this storm. Right now I don't see any serious threats of severe thunderstorms. But, it is early so let's see how it really sets up.

Gary

Posted by: Daron M. at March 19, 2007 8:12 AM

************
Gary, sorry I didn't answer if I found it yesterday. Too much was going on. I am out of town and only brought part of the Star. Wehn I get back to town, I'll let you know. And yes hopefully it will encourage more people to switch to you guys. But, since some people don't believe you, you should've bet the Weatherate Seal on the front page or somewhere else in it. Or did you already?
------------------
Alden,

I really don't understand why people won't believe it. All anyone ever has to do is just pay closer attention to the forecasts and then they can realize who the most accurate is. We will take the test anytime. Now, on a given day we may lose, but not on most days. Which is the point, especially when there is a storm coming in.

Gary

Posted by: Alden at March 19, 2007 8:22 AM

************
What a tricky system. I think I see some weak impulses that will eject out ahead of the cutoff. I think this will keep us with rain in the forecast, but may not be as wide spread. The upper flow is weak right now, but when the cutoff moves, I believe it will bring 40-60kt mid level winds. Combined with a moderate LLJ, I think there is potential for Wed/Thurs for some thunderstorms. Reading the SPC outlook, seems there still may be some possibilities...
----------------
Scott,

Tuesday's chance of rain is barely associated with the developing upper level storm well to the west. If this upper low cuts off that far west then we may be dry for days instead of hours. The GFS precip forecast could just be wrong as we could have some ridging over the plains. Then, when the upper system ejects out there will be enough wind aloft, as you discussed, for some severe weather. Hopefully the upper low will be a bit closer, we will be more in the southern branch like it was looking yesterday, and then we can have the periods of rain and thunderstorms.
Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 19, 2007 8:38 AM

***************
Hi Gary,

I have a totally not weather related question for you. Since I really only read the weather blog, I wasn't sure who to adress this to.
My husband took my son the Science City last weekend and they told me that many things there aren't working or are broken.
I know this isn't really a Call for Action problem, so was wondering if there is anybody there who could investigate it.
It is just such a shame, since Science City is such a great place and we love it. But why don't they keep it up?
THanks bunches,
Anja
--------------
Anja,

I would call our news department and talk to the news desk. 816-932-4141.

Gary

Posted by: Anjakarena at March 19, 2007 8:48 AM

************
I thought spoonbill were fish. They are better known as paddlefish.
----------------
Keri,

Maybe someone has caught a spoonbill. Let us know.

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at March 19, 2007 9:41 AM

************
Gary,
I know we need the rain, and believe me I want it, but I've got to get some work done and the tractor out of the fields before it gets too wet again. I need through tomorrow to finish. Is it looking to stay dry through tomorrow?
------------
Cris,

It looks wet later on Tuesday, but dry on Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by: Cris at March 19, 2007 10:18 AM

************
Yesterday, I began having sneezing fits, my eyes got dry and my ears began itching. My daughter began clearing her thoat a lot. This all began suddenly.

Is there a pollen or mold that just started, or a count that shot high yesterday?
-----------------
Linda,

The Juniper, Elm, and other tree pollens are very high. Hopefully it will get cleaned out this week.

Gary

Posted by: Linda at March 19, 2007 10:18 AM

**************
Hello Gary!! I went out to Centerville this am to take my dog to the groomers and that is right were the tornado went through. It is the first time I have seen that particular area and WOW I was impressed. It was a biggie and did ALOT of damage to that area. Many nice homes were spared but about 4 recieved alot of damage. Anyways it sure is warm down here. At 8:30 am it was 66...the air feels alittle thick too, I think. Sure that front is right on our door step though....and it will all change. Have a great day and good luck getting your weather special all put together by Wednesday.
Monica
------------------------
Monica,

Thanks for the information on the tornado area. It was a big tornado.

We are almost finished with the Linn/Anderson county tornado package. You are in it twice, I believe. You will be a TV star on Wednesday night. I will try to remember to email you the details.

Gary

Posted by: Monica at March 19, 2007 10:34 AM

************
When do you expect our next round of severe weather in the northland (Lawson area)?
-------------
Cris,

Maybe this weekend? But, it doesn't look like a great chance at this moment.

Gary

Posted by: Cris at March 19, 2007 10:42 AM

**************
I got my Severe Weather Insert yesterday. Looks good Gentlemen. My family and I will be watching NBC Action News if/when Severe Weather is happening. Again keep up the excellent work!!!
-------------------
Stephen,

Thank you! And we will keep you advised!!!!

Gary

Posted by: Stephen at March 19, 2007 11:04 AM

 
 

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