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 March 21, 2007

"A front approaches"

We hope you enjoyed the weather special. Now, we can look ahead to the severe weather threat on Thursday. There is a cold front approaching. But, it is forecast to stall and become stationary right near Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. Look below at the front this evening:

Surface 630PM.gif
645 PM surface map Wednesday evening

As discussed in the previous blog there is a storm forming off the Baja California coast. We are in the flow around this storm. This southern branch of the jet stream is pulling in a lot of Pacific moisture and a few weak upper level storm systems. With the front stalling right near us there will be the potential for training of thunderstorms. It is a rather unique set up and we will have to see how it looks in the morning. Where will the front stop moving?

Have a great evening. We will be tracking this tonight at 10 PM.

Gary


Posted by at March 21, 2007 6:59 PM

Comments

*****************
I just hope that nothing happens like it did the 1st week of March when we had all that rain and then it snowed the next day.That's Gary for keeping us informed on what's going on!

Posted by: Nikki at March 21, 2007 7:29 PM

***************
It was great!! Another way I keep track is my Doppler Radar- StormLAb Pro, www.interwarn.com It's another life saver! And I people can track weather with on my website. www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather CHECK IT OUT! WHAT DO YOU THING GARY?
--------------------
Andrew,

Thanks. I have checked it out! Excellent.

Gary

Posted by: Andrew Stafford at March 21, 2007 7:40 PM

*****************
Thanks for the special! It was very informative and it had a lot of neat videos/time lapses of severe weather! The video from the parking lot of the speedway was very impressive, the thing about that video is that I have been on that parking lot before once when I went to see a race last year. So it looks like we are going to have a rather active spring I guess. The line of storms in Nebraska is on the move I just hope that the storms are not all the way south of St. Joe before 6 A.M., I'd like to see some of them!
Today was very warm and windy, definitely felt like storm season, even though we didn't break up the clouds until after 3p.m. we still made it into the 70's!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in(sticky) St. Joe!!!
---------------------
Nick,

It is amazing how the precipitation patterns are still very similar to how they acted this winter. I do believe you will be getting your share of rain though as spring progresses.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 21, 2007 7:48 PM

***************
The weather special was great...thanks for including me!! My girls LOVED it!! You all did a nice job of getting everything in that 30 minute time slot. Enjoy all the success of being number one...you all deserve it.
Thanks again.
Monica
----------------------
Thanks Monica,

We are glad you enjoyed it. And, we got your family photo in there too.

Gary

Posted by: Monica at March 21, 2007 7:56 PM

*********************
Gary,
Is there a chance for tornadoes in Edgerton, Mo tonight or tomorrow? Will we see any severe weather late tonight/early tomorrow morning? I sure hope not!! Why does noaa have us under 2-5% chance of having tornadoes tonight? Thanks, Robin
--------------------------
Robin,

No. The thunderstorms are all linear and the threat of any tornado is EXTREMELY small.

Gary

Posted by: Robin at March 21, 2007 8:07 PM

*******************
I LOVED the weather special. Especially the "behind the secnes" thing. You could've perhaps talked about the Green Screen. You should do more of this type of thing. Maybe (although the answer is no) even post pictures of the WX+ Center on the website. I did however, only miss the Spring Forecast, I went to do something then and only saw the very last end. Could you explain it to me please? Thanks.
-----------------------
Alden,

I am expecting four good set ups for severe thunderstorms this spring and near to above average rainfall.

Gary

Posted by: Alden at March 21, 2007 8:25 PM

*******************
I missed the Severe Weather Special. Is there a way I can view it online. I don't post here much here but am constantly lurking.

I'm a closet weather geek and apreciate the job you guys do. You're usually more accurate and if there is a system that is giving you trouble you're usually several hours ahead of the competition and the NWS with changes.

I promise to post more in the future. An active spring kind of gets me excited.
----------------------------
Lee,

We would love to have your blogging input. Well you say that we are hours ahead of the others when there are changes. Guess what, there are changes. This front is fading as we go into Thursday and this forecast is almost impossible. I hate it when the chance of rain goes down to 50/50. This is when the weather forecaster looks really bad. Unfortunately I am about to drop the chance to 50%.

Gary

Posted by: Lee in the Dotte at March 21, 2007 8:53 PM

**************
Hello Mr. Lezak, the storms seem to be staying to the north, do you think they will backbuild southward?
-------------------
Ben,

My confidence is waning in the chance of rain brainstorm. Man, this forecast is becoming more difficult.

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at March 21, 2007 9:14 PM

***************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
Is there another chance of rain tonight after the front moves by? Or will we have to wait until tomorrow?
------------
Ben,

They are still holding together. There is a chance in a few hours.

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at March 21, 2007 9:31 PM

************
Gary-
These storms to the north kind of look like they're falling apart, does that put us in a risk of severe storms tomorrow with the cold front stalling near the Metro?
Baylee
-------------
Baylee,

It should rain Thursday, but the models have all backed off on it.

Gary

Posted by: Baylee at March 21, 2007 9:34 PM

**************
So many people say that being a weather man is easy; after all you just stand in-front of the screen and point at things sounding like you know what you’re talking about. I know that’s anything but true and it just goes to show you how good most of the weather folks are, especially you guys.

Sure you stand in-front of the cameras and point at a blank wall that lasts a few minutes, but. there is alot of number crunching involved with just trying to figure out what the heck the weather will be like in a few hours. Weather is anything but predictable and pretty much has a mind if it's own. You gotta know lots of math, know how to read all the different charts, you need to look at know the history of weather and lastly to get an idea of how weather works overall. Weather people don't just make the forecast up by guessing like throwing darts at a dart board (though way back when I'm sure that was as accurate as it got) Long term forecasting is allot of guess work but there’s still alot of researching and maps and numbers that go into it.

Let’s take the winter forecast; I'm sure some people will be upset because it was not "perfect," although it was pretty close! I say give you a break because you are only human and not a psychic. Long range forecast are rarely if ever spot on. I'm just glad technology has advanced enough to make the forecasters job a bit easier since predictions seem to me more accurate.

Then there is the people who complain about breaking in during severe weather when it's not happening in their town. I understand how having your show interrupted can be very annoying but personally I would mutch rather know about the severe weather than be caught unaware. I do wish there was a way to cover it with out the wall to wall coverage. My co-workers tease me because I am a weather nut. They were not happy with the coverage on Feb 28th I know it is not all up to you. I will say at least you do not hype as much as the other stations in town.

You guys do more work behind the camera to make the forecast look nice and accurate for the times they have to go in-front of it. Also getting used to pointing the opposite direction you think you should point at when on screen must take a while to get used to as well. Keep up all your hard work guys I love watching the forecasts. I like seeing all the forecasts from the day on the weather page so I can see how things change over time. and having the forecast video on the web lets me catch up as well. Your blog is by far the best in town, and easy to follow. Some of the other blogs are very hard to post on, and while they tend to be detailed, they don’t post near as often as you.

I also want to give some honest feedback regarding your special. I thought it was very well put together, and I thought every one did an excellent job. My only suggestion is next time, do not have it at Prime-Time. I thought it was going to be an hour show, but since it was a half hour, in my opinion, there was no reason to pre-empt prime time programming. Actually, I am very surprised that NBC allowed this. I would think they would have a fit because of the national advertisements that missed. Anyway, I thought your special was good. I do hope you go into more detail about your spring forecast on the blog and give very specifics information, which would be cool. I think your forecast looks good.

By the way, I saw your 10pm forecast, I am not surprised it has changed. Other stations are still calling for severe weather, and you are saying it might happen, but you are not hyping it! The major difference (most of the time) is you folks to hype the weather. Sometimes your news crew hyypes it, but that is beyond your control.

Have a great evening!

Later,
Brian - Overland Park
-------------------
Brian,

Good observations! Now, concerning the special, and I have taken a lot of heat tonight. More than ever before in my career. I have to explain what happened.

NBC had a Dateline repeat scheduled for tonight and then late last week they decided to put in a brand new episode of Friday Night Lights. This is where everything got messed up. I wish we would have moved the special to another night that had a repeat on. So, this is why this controversy developed. I HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. I didn't even know until tonight what had happened. But, there are a lot of angry viewers saying some ridiculously angry things to me.

Gary

Posted by: Brian at March 21, 2007 10:28 PM

***************
I missed the Severe Weather Special! I had to go to my workout (as a fellow exerciser you understand I'm sure!). Are there any plans to post it online?
---------------------
Marlina,

I will ask the "higher ups" today.

Gary

Posted by: Marlina at March 21, 2007 10:35 PM

************
I can't help myself....carried over from previous blog...in response to Jim. In all fairness, I think this should be noted.

The warnings last night were issued by SGF. This should be enough said, but I will continue. In researching this information, the actual warning can be viewed on the Springfield NWS Severe Weather Briefing page. Right below this title is "for the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas"

Since when does KC serve this area? This is even out of our NWS CWA that serves KC. I would presume that the only station covering this event was either stretching for a panic story, or does not have an affiliate in that area. Either case, it did not affect 99% of those in the viewing area, and at best merits a crawl. I would be interested if they would lead off all other nights where there is a severe thunderstorm producing no hail and marginal severe winds nearly 159 miles away from their core viewing area. Additionally, the only storm report noted was the same one in the warning verbage. Not one other call. No hail, just this lone report with unknown windspeeds.

Leading the news with it is very weak and marginally irresponsible.


OOOOKKKKK, now that is out of the way...good special. Just clarify to me your definition of 4-6 outbreaks. Are these moderate/high risk types, or your common variety slight risk type set ups? Off hand, I think based on the LRC, I can identify by date 4 of these...perhaps the other two are just in cases... ;-) Oh..and your rainfall prediction - yup..far different from the CRC. On to the storms...
-----------------
Scott,

Thanks! It has been a rough night. I better get a little sleep.

The 4 to 6 outbreaks are the moderate to high risk set ups that we can find in the LRC as we move into April and especially May and June this year. We will see if the heights get to high?

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 21, 2007 10:46 PM

****************
Hey Gary, I read that you are from Southern California, where about? My family and I moved here from northern L.A. a year and a half ago. I gotta say, the weather forecasters are sure a heck of a lot better here in MO than they are back in Southern California!
------------
Audra,

Thanks! I grew up in the San Fernando Valley. Woodland Hills and Canaga Park in the west valley, but I left in 1985 for good after graduating from the University of Oklahoma.

Gary

Posted by: Audra Goyette at March 21, 2007 11:35 PM

**************
Last update for tonight, lots of lightning flashes to the north and west of St. Joe very cool looking and the storms are now beginning to back build a little further south again, I Just herd THUNDER!!, So at least it looks like we will get one good thunderstorm anyway!:)
Nick in (Humid,Thundery) St. Joe!!!

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 21, 2007 11:42 PM

*********
Great job on the special guys! i taped while i was at the spotters meeting and i loved it.
------------
Randy,

Thank you so much.

Gary

Posted by: Randy at March 21, 2007 11:46 PM

*************
Just wanted to let you guys know that I thought you did a great job on the weather special tonight! Keep up the great work!
-------------
Thanks Barbara

Posted by: Barbara at March 21, 2007 11:51 PM

***********
Me again, WOW,WOW,WOW INCREADIBLE LIGHTNING DISPLAY OUTSIDE A LOT OF BOLTS FLASHING OUT IN THE STORM TO THE NORTH WITH ALMOST CONTINUAL FAINT RUMBLE(S) OF THUNDER, AWSOME A TRUE SPECTICLE.
Nick in St. Joe!!!
------------------
Nick,

How much rain?

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 21, 2007 11:53 PM

************
Hi Gary:

I understand where you are coming from, and I was not upset. The special was good, but I figured since it was an hour block of time you were using, then the special would be an hour. I was just really surpised you had it at prime-time. Yea, networks can pull crazy stunts.

Later,
Brian
---------------------
Brian,

Yes, NBC pulled one on us. And, I agree. We could have easily done an hour special and concentrated on each individual tornado outbreak better.

Gary

Posted by: Brian at March 22, 2007 12:22 AM

***************
gary,
we're getting one heck of a thunderstorm up here! we've got penny sized hail and really freguent almost constant lightning and thunder! i love it! lol.
randy in stormy chillicothe.
------------------
Randy, they made it to Chilicothe. But, I am still waiting for my first drop. How much rain did you get?

Gary

Posted by: Randy at March 22, 2007 1:48 AM

***************
Gary,

Hello, It’s 3:15 am and we were woken up by are 100 pound lab jumping in bed. Sammie is extremely afraid of thunderstorms. She is like my own weather radio. It’s coming down hard in Parkville. Great weather special! Thanks for all the hard work down by you and your team!

Lisa
-----------------------------
Lisa,

Thanks. It is amazingly frustrating right now as this weather set up has produced some lightning and thunder, but wide spread rain is being left out so far.

Gary

Posted by: Lisa at March 22, 2007 3:18 AM

******************
Gary and team,

I am from Marshall and woke up to a tornado warning in the middle of the night not far off and didn't get any coverage of that warning from your station. I was dissapointed no station was on and only one gave a crawl for Chariton County! I saw the earlier posts about Springfield covered counties but this is in the Kansas City covered counties!

Not feeling the love at all..

Brian in Marshall Missouri
-------------------
Brian,

Chariton county is on the extreme edge of our viewing area. We do not have it on our warning map, but when I get to work today I will add it in. I have a few others I must add in there too to complete our map. I don't want you to feel left out. Give me a few more hours.

But, we were on and Brett was there covering the severe weather situation. We just need to add the county onto our map.

Gary

Posted by: Brian at March 22, 2007 3:57 AM

*************
Gary:

Good morning to you sir!! The front has come through here-winds are gusty out of the North East and we had 5 minuets of sprinkles!!!

What a tough forecast the past 48 hours has been. 9 times out of 10 if we have a front menadering back and forth like this, we get very heavy rains-in fact, Tuesday reminded me alot of the Lawrence microburst from last year-but this time, kind of like Kaesar Sose in The Usual Suspects it went poof and was gone-gotta love weather here-mother nature loves to throw wrenches here for sure lol!! It is kind of interesting: My oldest son and I were looking at things last night at about 8:00 (supposed to go to our cabin today to stay for a few days so were checking on the rain) and the surface observations kind of told the tale with the front really getting hung up to our west and most of the convection to our North and East. Then this morning when I was out, I noticed our winds had switched to the North North East and I was thinking-our massive rain event is in serious trouble-again, weather in KC-always a curve ball!!!!

However, there is now a small line of thunderstoms that have developed and are about to move through so rain is rain is rain-since we are now over an inch below for this year, I'll take it!!!! It also looks like there is more trying to develop in the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle so maybe things will work out after all. But, I would of loved to have had that 6-8 hours of steady rain we many times get with a front meandering around for 2-3 days.

Sorry for the heat you took last night-to me, specials like you and the team put together are extremely important and the effort you put into them are greatly appreciated. Since 2002 when we still lived in KC and since moving to Lawrence in 2003, my family and I have been through a once in a century ice storm where we lost power for 8 days, a tornado, a microburst, a flood (had nearly 8 inches of rain in 2005 in a 36 hour period), and two massive thunderstorms that knocked power out at our cabin with my two boys-without specials like you had, my kids would have been much more frightened than they were and we would of been much less prepared. These kind of specials are very important and I for one greatly appreciate them. Contrary to popular belief, we have not conquered weather nor will we ever-in the end, the best thing we can do is prepare for it-this individual in Lawrence says thankyou!!!!

Well, I've done it again-babbled way too much-oh well, just in case others missed by War and Peace writings...LOL-have a great day and I hope it is better than yesterday. Since it appears we have missed the real soaking rains today, I'm sure Sunday it will rain 4 inches as I am trying to get 12 High school students' tents set up for our service project early next week!!!!

Bill enjoying the thunder in Lawrence
--------------------
Bill,

Now I know it will rain on Sunday. Good luck with the kids.

Yes, this forecast is tough. Thunderstorms should be passing through you as you read my comments. A line has formed and will move across the area. At least it is something.

Gary

Posted by: Bill Gollier at March 22, 2007 5:49 AM

 
 

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