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 March 20, 2007

"A strong warm front"

Good morning everyone,

A strong warm front has set up near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. South of the front the winds are from the south and temperatures are in the 60s at 6 AM. This air will likely be here by 6 AM Wednesday morning. North of the front a cool air mass is in place and the winds are from the east. This is a classic warm front. Look below:

6 AM surface.gif
Click to enlarge (6 AM surface map)

6 AM surfaceCloser.gif Closer look

The red number is the air temperature. The green number is the dew point temperature. The black number to the northeast of each observation is the pressure: 244 at KCI airport is 1024.4 mb. The 194 in Tulsa is 1019.4 mb, or 5 mb lower pressure than at KCI. The barb is the wind direction and speed. Notice KCI has east northeast winds at 10 knots. Emporia has a 15 knots wind. The long line is 10 knots and the short line is 5 knots. One knot is equal to 1.15 mph. So, a 10 knot wind would be 11.5 mph. A 100 knot wind would be 115 mph. So, this is why hurricane force winds are 65 knots, or 74 mph.

A series of weak upper level disturbances will move across the region during the next 18 hours. This will force the warm front to move northward. As it begins to move the air will be forced to rise. Thunderstorms should become widespread south of us later this morning and then move in during the afternoon and evening. There could even be some small hail with some thunderstorms, but no severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

Today's forecast for temperatures and rainfall is quite difficult. Will it stay in the 40s or warm into the 50s? And, will we see 1/4 inch of rain or 1.5 inches. I lean into the heavier range. As we discussed yesterday, this is almost identical to the set up we had around December 20th. 1.37" fell on the south side that day with 1.1" at KCI. Amazingly, something similar could very well happen today.

Have a great day. We will be tracking this all day and update you later this morning.

Gary

Posted by at March 20, 2007 6:43 AM

Comments

******************
Well now its just a waiting game!!!
The radar to the south is looking good to me, there is even already a small shower in south eastern Buchanan county,(according to radar).
It really did cool down to, only 40, guess I will have to get the big coat out!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in(cloudy/cool) St. Joe!!!
-------------------
Nick,

Showers are rather sparse this morning, but they are growing slowly.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 20, 2007 6:58 AM

****************
Good morning Gary. I had saved several of your weather graphics from each month and this potential of rain is almost identical to December 20th. Amazing. Yes I do believe in the LRC. I was off by 4 days from your cycle. It is 42-48 and I was counting 42-45. With a shorter cycle than last year (didn't you say it was close to 62 days) We should have a wetter spring. Gary do you apply your theory only to the Northern Hemisphere? Wouldn't your theory work in the Southern Hemisphere? I wonder if the cycling days would be different in each or the same every year? I would think that the bigger picture that you talk about would have a slight variation in each hemisphere due to different factors. I know too many questions. Keep up the good work. Thanks, Michael/Topeka/Berryton P.S. That weather narrative by Stormdog was quite impressive.
---------------
Michael,

The cycle is different every year. Last year was 60 to 62 days or so. The year before that was 74 to 78 days, in 2002-2003 it was around 35 to 37 days. For some reason the pattern begins cycling and each year is unique. I have the evidence to show it, but this doesn't prove it. It is just overwhelming evidence. Next year could be 20, 40, 80 days or anything in between.

Gary

Posted by: michael huffman at March 20, 2007 8:00 AM

***********
Gary,
My daughter is in town for a week. Is there any chance of severe weather during the next week in the Kansas City area?
Thanks!
-------------------
Matt,

We are monitoring Sunday closely. But, since it is still five days away we will have to see if a severe weather situation sets up. There is a very slim chance on Thursday morning of some severe weather. The best chance appears to be Sunday.

Gary

Posted by: Matt P at March 20, 2007 8:10 AM

************
Gary -
Love the fact that the online forcast for the day is being kept current! Its a big help for those of us that work outside. ESP also seems more user friendly/easier to find/ or something. If you could just include wind speeds...

Carrie
-----------------
Carrie,

I have always been bad about winds. We will try to work that in there.

Gary

Posted by: carrie at March 20, 2007 9:13 AM

***********
Gary-

Are we talking a large severe weather outbreak or is it too hard to judge at this point?
-------------
Stephen,

March and April outbreaks happen and they can be the biggest of the year. We really shouldn't be anticipating the potential unless it is really obvious. Nothing obvious is showing up, but there is potential over this weekend somewhere in the plains.

Gary

Posted by: Stephen at March 20, 2007 10:44 AM

**************
Gary, I know this is a long ways out for you, but I'm a farmer that likes to plant my corn about the first of April. How does things look for April in eastern Kansas?
Thank You.
-------------
David,

Tomorrow night on the special we are issuing a spring forecast. It looks at least average and likely above average rainfall this spring. I see a couple of rather wet scenarios in early April, but it may turn colder too.

Gary

Posted by: David at March 20, 2007 11:30 AM

*************
Gary, you mentioned earlier that the maps only SHOW the LRC is real, but doesn't prove it. If this aint proof, what is it you need for prove the LRC is real? I would think years of maps and record keeping would do it.
-------------------
Jim,

I agree. It certainly is overwhelming evidence. But, to prove it? I need more concrete data, charts, data plots, etc. However, to prove it mathematically may be difficult. There is so much "chaos" in the atmosphere. But, I call it "organized chaos".

The evidence is enough for me to make my presentations! Is it enough to get it published in the AMS Bulletin?

Gary

Posted by: Jim Yates at March 20, 2007 11:34 AM

*************
Gary and Team,

Do we have an updated estimate on the rainfall totals the metro could receive? I live in Independence, and I am hopeful we get a nice, steady rain this afternoon and tonight.

Thanks and have a great day!
---------------
Fred,

Based on what we are seeing right now I am expecting 1/2 inch amounts in most locations with a few going over one inch. Then, more on Thursday morning.

Gary

Posted by: Fred at March 20, 2007 12:20 PM

***********
Gary, do you think the rain will linger into tomorrow morning and if so, how late will it do so?

Thank you.
-----------------
Shawn,

We are expecting it to be dry Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by: Shawn at March 20, 2007 1:17 PM

********************************
Gary

I know that you have recognized a better severe weather threat on Sunday but the NWS in Pleasant Hill is now mentioning a possible severe weather event in our area late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night....they are even speaking of the possibility of isolated tornadoes(especially over northwest missouri and northeast kansas). I am just curious what your thoughts are on this potential for tomorrow? Temperatures could reach the mid 70's and with a good LLJ kicking up tonight, moisture transport should get dewpoints into the low to mid 60's. I think it could get interesting! Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

Adam Penney
--------------------------
Adam,

Just like during the winter we have a different opinion. The warm front is gone tomorrow and there is no surface front or wind shift anywhere close to us until after midnight Wednesday night. So, we see no chance until perhaps early Thursday morning.

Gary

Posted by: Adam Penney at March 20, 2007 1:38 PM

***********************
Gary,
If you can get your LRC published, peer reviewed and accepted..you will be in rarified air. This would be a huge accomplishment. Just don't forget about the little people that helped get you where you are today!

;-)

PS..then we can work on the SMC...
---------------------------
Scott,

Which version would we work on. V1 or V2. LOL

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 20, 2007 2:09 PM

**************************
how's the rain outlook for overland park? I'ts raining really hard at 2:45 @ 135th and Metcalf
----------------------
Jereme,

Not much today, but perhaps a lot more Thursday.

Gary

Posted by: Jereme at March 20, 2007 3:00 PM

**************************
Is more rain expected later today? The rain right now seems to be moving out of the KC area and I don't even have .25" yet.

David

Posted by: David, Lenexa at March 20, 2007 3:46 PM

****************
Gary-
Thanks for your response earlier. My wife and I will be keeping a close eye on your forecast for the weekend. Can't wait to catch the weather special as well!!!!

Posted by: Stephen at March 20, 2007 3:55 PM

*****************
having some nice light to moderate rain moving through St. Joe!! The RUC still develops more later I hope its right!!!!
got to go to work now:)
Nick in (wet) St. Joe!!
-------------------
Nick,

Let's hope so, because this afternoon was somewhat of a dud for you.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 20, 2007 4:27 PM

*****************
Hi Gary,
The NWS says we may get some tornadoes Wednesday night. Do you think the same?
Daron
------------------------------
Daron,

There is some potential after midnight on Wednesday night, but more likely just a line of thunderstorms with some severe.

Gary

Posted by: Daron M at March 20, 2007 4:51 PM

***************
Gary: Several months ago I asked if it would be possible to enlighten us on the info being presented on the maps. I really appreciate your description of your maps today. It is much more interesting if I understand what I am looking at.

Once again, you have proven why you are the best in KC. Thanks.

Mike in Gladstone
---------------------
Mike,

Thanks, we are glad you enjoyed today's discussion. I will try to add more in when we get the chance.

Gary

Posted by: Mike at March 20, 2007 4:54 PM

 
 

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