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 March 14, 2007

Cold front is on the move

Good morning,

I had Monday and Tuesday off and I am refreshed and ready to go. I have been doing some analyzing of the weather pattern and it is amazing as we continue to cycle through the pattern that set up in October and November. More on this in the coming days, but the more amplified part of the pattern should begin within a week and then last for a while. This should provide us with some unique stormy set ups for rain, thunderstorms, and some severe weather potential. I don't have any specifics right now.

The only thing we can talk about specifically is a cold front heading our way. Below is the surface map from a few minutes ago at around 9:30 AM. The cold front is sliding southward.
930 AM surface.gif
Click to enlarge

This will pass through is this evening and it will be cooler for a few days. Some models have rain developing early tomorrow morning near by, but confidence is still low on the possibility.

I will talk to our webmaster today about all of the issues with the blog and web page.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at March 14, 2007 9:58 AM

Comments

Welcome back, Gary. You deserved some much needed time off. I just put some fresh batteries in my weather radios and am getting ready for the 11am test from the NWS to see if all systems are go. Sure is a beautiful day.

Posted by: Justin at March 14, 2007 10:50 AM

Gary,
Welcome back! Now that you are back, I want to thank you for the mention of Mt. Washington, N.H. last week. It really is the world's worst weather. When I lived in back in CT, one of our local meteorologists went on assign up there during the winter and did a series on it. It was amazing to see all of the snow and how difficult it was just to walk up there with all of the wind and snow in his face. It made some Nor'easters look tame.

Posted by: Matt P at March 14, 2007 12:30 PM

Gary,
Glad your rested, good to see your back!
ryan

Posted by: ryan mcmillian at March 14, 2007 12:35 PM

***********
Gary,
Welcome back. First of all…I am not sure that the current cycle is any longer amazing. I come to expect the LRC to be dead on now, and I guess this is the evolution from discovery to fine tuning. When I got my first car, it was amazing, but now it’s expected. If you are going to get more peers on board, we have to move from the “I’m amazed this is working/still working? to “of course it works, silly?.

Looking at the GFS, it looks like late next week, that pesky Alaskan low moves out and allows the ridge to build back in stronger. This will then finally get rid of this boring zonal flow and allow the amplitude back in. As usual, in a non amazed way, the LRC is working like clockwork.
-------------------------
Scott,

I agree, but isn't it still amazing! But, we can keep this part to ourselves.

The weather pattern continues to cycle, and it is about 45 days, give or take 3 days or so. There are two phases to the cycle this season. Every other cycle has been colder and a bit wetter. We can look for a more amplified and stormier pattern during the next four weeks and a strong possibility of a very cold stretch, for April, somewhere down the road. But, as you had stated in one of your comments to Jeremy, the LRC should very carefully be used for predicting temperatures long range. It can be used, and relied upon, but an April version or a June version of the pattern may be wet instead of cold. We will see. Although if it does get wet, it might be cooler. And, in a non amazing way.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 14, 2007 1:02 PM

**********************************************
Good afternoon weather crew. I hadn't realized that so many people had become upset over the extended on-air presence of the news stations during the weather event on Feb. 28. It's dissapointing. I can't thank you all enough for the work you did in educating us on the immediate threat that existed that evening.

I realized something though; for those of us that have spent the good part of our lives here in the midwest, we have become somewhat 'numb' to the weather phenomena known as 'tornado'. When we learn of watches in are our area, we go about our day without worry, but with an eye to the sky as we are acutely aware of the weather threat that exists. We rely upon you to keep us updated and warn us of any immediate threats. You did just that, and exceeded our expectations in providing comprehensive information on the threat... we are very pleased!

In speaking with those from the east or west coast, they 'freak out' at the tornado watches and warnings and aren't quite sure what to make of it. It's a realization I came to the other day when speaking with a guy from Virginia. Gary, some of us have grown too comfortable and that worries me. Keep doing what you're doing - don't change a thing. By the way, has the weather station indicated to those who complained that the broadcast area is wide, and while those 75 miles to the north may not be under an immediate life-threatening situation - they are still going to see the same broadcast as those that are? That when a life-threatening situation arises in one part of the viewing area - you will stay on until the threat is over - regardless of whether or not the entire viewing area is under the immediate threat?

Thanks again guys!
------------------------------------------------
Thank you Marc. If there is a supercell that is producing or has a strong history of a tornado we will be on. You make a good point, tornadoes do affect relatively small areas. If the people in the non affected areas were being threatened, I am willing to bet that they will not complain.

Jeff Penner

Posted by: Marc at March 14, 2007 2:13 PM

******************
Hi, When will you air the severe weather special on the 21st? I do not want to miss it.
-----------------------
Brent,

It is going to be in prime time, next Wednesday night. I will announce it tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by: Brent at March 14, 2007 9:25 PM

****************
Taking a peek into next week...I am beginning to watch Thurs/Fri. Still so far out, not sure what may happen, but watching for some severe setups.
------------------------
Scott,

We shouldn't talk about severe weather a week away. One of our bloggers last week talked about this "serious" threat for today and look at what happened......NOTHING. But, I agree it does have my attention.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 14, 2007 9:25 PM

******************
Hope you had a good rest, wow it has been feeling like May the past few days! I opened up the window in my room for the past few days, nice to be able to hear the wind in my room! it looks like this northwest flow aloft is going bye-bye, so next week should be a little more interesting, although we had some interesting alto-cumulus clouds this evening after the front went by with pretty good north winds! (if it were May or June with this set up we probably would have had some post-frontal thunder-boomers).
Oh, and on a severe weather note, on thing that I find interesting is that tornadoes even in the worst outbreaks will only hit a very small surface area, but usually get the most fanfare from T.V., radio, sirens etc. and rightfully so because we have no way of knowing if a possible tornadic storm will produce, No tornado , and EF0,EF1...EF5.
Yet you could have a very strong straight line wind event, say a derecho, with the wind strength of a weak tornado that could cover a much larger surface than a single EF0-EF2 tornado yet people will tend to be warned less for the derecho especially at night, since there would be likely no sirens and they may only set their weather radios to go off only under strictly "tornado warnings".
So I wonder if the national weather service might not consider developing a new "higher level" T-Storm warning if they know the winds will rival that of a tornado even though they can't issue an actual tornado warning?
Does this make any sense?
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (windy,turning cooler) St. Joe!!!
----------------
Nick,

If a severe thunderstorm appears it will be producing widespread damage the NWS will issue the warning with some stronger wording, and upgrade their wording in special weather statements. It is then up to us to make sure the warning gets out in the appropriate way.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 14, 2007 11:48 PM

*************
Is there still a chance of snow... any snow what so ever? I wouldnt mind at least 1 more snowfall... then bring on the thunderstorms:) Would you have any other suggestions for my research paper? I just about have my truck finished and I will e-mail my pictures of my "spotting veichle " soon. Have a good day!!!
----------------------
John,

It is close to snowing on Saturday. It will likely not quite form, but it is close. We have, maybe three more weeks of a realistic chance, but then it really gets too late for us.

Gary

Posted by: John Moon III at March 15, 2007 10:18 AM

****************
Gary,
Nick brings up an interesting point. Often times, derechos can be more destructive that EF-0/1 tornados. Also, they do indeed cover more area. I know the EMS and sirens are keyed to tornado warnings, but why not to all weather events that are destructive in nature, immediate, and can carry a specific threat? I know..a better question for the EMS folks..but definitely a very good point.

Also..as far as severe threats this far out...good point. I don't know when or where it will be, but I think the set up is there...but your point is valid...it could be in Texas for all I know right now.

Its a different and interesting perspective to get chase planning info. It can help key areas of interest.
----------------------
Scott,

The EMS is only going to sound the sirens if there is a tornado threat, or bomb threat for that matter. I agree with you guys though. If we have a line of intense thunderstorms with a leading gust front with 70 mph winds coming across the entire city we should be covering it like we would a tornado threat.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 15, 2007 11:07 AM

 
 

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