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Yah! With the Storm in Douglas County, my weather radio woke me up! So I'm updated my website with image of StormLab. That Storm on Radar almost looks like is starting to have a Hook Echo. I going to look at velocity to see, if I see anything bad.
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Andrew,

It is a fairly strong thunderstorm active with lightning. And some hail.

Gary

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Gary,
Both of my weather radios woke me up at six! Iwent back to sleep for an hour, but then all the thunder from the first severe storm, which has since weakened. I am wondering if the newer Topeka cell is stronger. On some of the previous Nexrad frames it appeared so!
Roberto
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Roberto,

That second cell is stronger, but it should also weaken as it moves east. At least it is an exciting morning.

Gary

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Gary, Out in KCK - near Dubs Dred - we just had some marble sized hail. It is really raining now. Mark
-----------------
Mark,

Thanks for the report. It's almost over.

Gary

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Is it true that there was actually a tornado last night? I thought you said there were going to be no tornadoes and very little severe weather???
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Bob,

There may have been a small tornado in eastern Carrol county, and there has been very little severe weather.

I don't want to get defensive. But, the pressure is on us so much. I said there would be very little severe weather and please understand that 99% of us did not have any severe weather. 99%! So, 1% in my opinion is "very little". Now, this doesn't mean we shouldn't be all over the threat. We were. Brett Anthony was there for the 3 AM severe weather event well off to the east.

Do you think that 1% of the area being affected is more than "very little"? This really did almost exactly what I thought it would. Did I think there would be a small tornado? No, but it isn't that surprising. We always say that severe thunderstorms can and sometimes do produce a tornado without warning. Of course we will try to warn you, but sometimes small ones come down and cause damage in 5 minutes or less. This is the hardest type of tornado to warn you on. The bigger tornadoes are scarier, but much easier to provide warning and lead time on.

Gary

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Gary and the weather team, we had a very brief shower at our house. Driving from Berryton into Topeka was quite a trip. It began to rain hard and then pea sized hail. Once we got into the main part of Topeka it quit raining. Should be quite a day rainwise. Hope your show went well. Our daughter taped it for us. It seems as though many sources are no longer doing weather specials anymore. Have fun tracking the storms. I will keep the NWS radar on here at work. Michael/Topeka/Berryton

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Hey Gary-
Have you taken a look at the NWS day 4 through 8 severe weather potential? Do you have a feeling if this is going to be a severe weather outbreak?
Thank you
Cameron
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Cameron,

The pattern is very active and one of these systems is probably going to set up just right. The next week one has a lot of energy and I think the severe weather potential is there. If there is a strong surface low then we could have an outbreak somewhere?

Gary

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It appears that there are some Torando Warnings in Central Missouri. Correct?
----------------
Alden,

Those were Flash Flood Warnings.

Gary

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Gary, first off I would like to say that you and your whole staff's forecasts and weather reports are the only worthwhile ones in town and I admire your passion for what you do.

Next, I had a fairly specific question for Friday and the weekend. Can we expect the typical spring windy and warm day, or will the winds be a little more calm? And in general, how difficult is it to predict wind speeds?
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Shawn,

The wind forecast alone is difficult for Friday and Saturday. The new data already is very different. Every model run has been providing new solutions. When I finished my radio forecasts a couple of hours ago I was convinced of 76 and nice on Friday. Well, so much for that if you look at some of the models. Let's just see what we think later on today.

Gary

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Tough day to be Gary…you take the good with the bad. Let me start with the quick criticism for the sleep deprived Gary [people, have you noted the times of the posts going through in this and the previous blogs?

Here is a statement from Gary in the previous blog….

“NBC had a Dateline repeat scheduled for tonight and then late last week they decided to put in a brand new episode of Friday Night Lights. This is where everything got messed up. I wish we would have moved the special to another night that had a repeat on. So, this is why this controversy developed. I HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. I didn't even know until tonight what had happened.�

Here is a statement in the blog from March 19th.

“Friday Night Lights fans: "Friday Night Lights will be shown overnight at 2:05am the next Thursday morning if you want to watch or record it". I am fairly certain this means this Thursday morning.�

Huh?

Ok..now that I got that out of the way out of all fairness to the lovers and the haters, I can move on to the next topic.

The tornado report last night – Here is the damage summary from the SPC:
0808 3 W BOSWORTH CARROLL MO 3947 9339 SPOTTER REPORTED A DAMAGE PATH AROUND ONE AND A HALF MILES WITH NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH SNAPPED POWER POLES...AND DAMAGE TO ONE BARN ROOF. (EAX)
0805 200 BOSWORTH CARROLL MO 3947 9334 HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS REPORTED (EAX)

I am not sure at this time there was a watch/warning out for this area. [Can someone confirm?]

Regardless. as I had mentioned in a previous blog entry, this time of year anytime there is a risk for severe weather, there is a chance for damaging winds, hail or tornados. Keep in mind, there are general guidelines for tornado forecasting, but its plausible and possible without full knowledge on how these things spin up, they may occur in environments not obvious.

Forecasting this time of year is very difficult. The SPC and NWS missed this one as well.
------------------
Scott,

Sometime last week is when we found out about NBC changing their programming. No one ever talked to me about it though, so I thought even that was a repeat of FNL. But, it wasn't and we are taking the heat today.

Good points! And you are correct. Especially now and until summer settles in, every time we have thunderstorms there will be the potential for some of them to become severe. But, last nights tornado threat was very small. And, one small tornado occurred. Whenever there are severe thunderstorms we have to pay very close attention for this possibility. It doesn't mean we should scare the entire viewing area.

And, with email and blogs we get more instant feedback than ever before. We just have to do our best and make our best choices. I know we will!

Gary

Gary

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Hey Gary!

I know it's still about 10 days away, and I promise to not hold you to it. What's your best guess for the conditions on Royals opening day; Monday, April 2?
----------------------
Anthony,

I am expecting a substantial storm somewhere in the middle of the nation within a couple of days of opening day. But, it doesn't mean it has to be bad that day?

Gary

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Gary,
From Bob's question about the possible tornado, wat time was it at? The NWS radar image of th esupercel from their website showed 1:17 this morning. When you heard about the storm did you know it was that strong? Oh, and one more thing? Was their even a warning out for it when a spotter reported damage and another reported a wall cloud?
Thanks Gary!
Roberto
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Roberto,

A warning came out and Brett Anthony was on. It happened around 3 AM. That was a strong line of thunderstorms. I am a little surprised it produced a tornado, but I have seen a small tornado many times with a line like this.

Gary

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Good morning Weather Team-
I watched your severe weather special last night and it was very informative. I'm new to the area and I just have one question- I have a basement that is semi-underground, but not all the way. Will I be safe there if a tornado comes?
Charlize
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Charlize,

You would be safe in there for about 98% of all tornadoes. The 2% that are the violent ones, well we just hope they aren't that strong.

Gary

************
.50 exactly in my rain gage from this morning's Lawrence T-storm. Lots of lightning and thunder, a bit of wind, but no hail at our location.

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Hey Weather Team--

You all have done an admirable job in keeping the citizens of Kansas City informed concerning the weather. I wish that each local station had the passion that all of you exhibit, instead of just throwing out numbers and data and hoping to be correct...

With that being stated, I spent the morning looking at the NOAA website, specifically for the KC area, and they have us with rain chances through Monday. When I watched the weather forecast this morning on KSHB, it mentioned less rain and more sun. So, my question is: Which one is it?

I understand that there is a lot of data, and alot of changes with the old data and the new data, so I am just wondering if we should expect more rain?

Thanks for everything you do, and keep up the good work.
----------------------
Fred,

This is a very difficult storm to figure out. Brett went with a more optimistic forecast for the weekend with more sunshine. I am in the middle and I think much of the weekend will be sunny and in the 70s, but there could be some rain each day as well. This is one of the tougher forecasts in months.

Gary

**********
gary,

can you tell me what the possibility is of severe thunderstorms on sunday? i looked at the NWS and they have us in the chance for the 4-7 day outlook.
--------------------
Nickie,

There is an energetic storm approaching next week. It appears much of the energy will track north of us, but it could be 80 degrees so we will be paying close attention.

Gary

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Gary,
I know today's is busy, and you must be wiped out, but I would like to get some type of common explanation to what a low level jet is. Seems the LLJs seem to be an ingredient in helocity/sheer which..well is an ingredient for severe/tornadic storms.

Before bed last night, I was looking at the RUCs and saw 850mb wind speeds of over 50kt. for this area into central Mo. Would this be the indication of the LLJ, or should I be looking at this another way?

I get sheer, helocity, lapse rates, cap and cinh, but LLJ explained would help a bit more. I am still hunting for a skew-T explanation I like..and hunting for that "gun/pistol" signature that Jeremy refered to months back as keys to severe weather.
------------------------
Scott,

The low-level jet is often talked about through the spring months. As the name implies, it is a fast moving ribbon of air in the low levels of the atmosphere. It can rapidly transport Gulf moisture and warmer temperatures to the North at speeds ranging from 25 to over 70 mph. There are two primary classifications of low-level jets. They are the nocturnal low level jet and the mid-latitude cyclone induced low level jet.

The nocturnal low level jet is strongest in early morning hours and decreases during the day due to a reverse in the east to west temperature gradient. The reverse in the temperature gradient is caused by warming of surface air. Air closer to the surface will warm quicker than air further aloft during the day. The air at around 5,000 feet, the 850 mb level, cools and warms quicker than 850 mb air further to the east since the western Great Plains is at a higher elevation.

So, we can look for this feature, maybe even tonight. When there is a warm front near by, like we have today, thunderstorm initiation often happens around 10 PM to 2 AM as the low level jet forms.

Does this make any sense?

Gary

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Gary, are you expecting any severe weather for today and or tonight/overnight hours and if so in what form. Thanks, Robin
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Robin,

There is still a slight risk south of Kansas City tonight. The main threat is still hail.

Gary

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Sorry to hear about the FNL troubles.
You should not be criticized for the tornado this morning. Small tornadoes should be considered like microbursts are, quick short lived intense winds that are nearly impossible to predict, if you have a thunderstorm with strong enough updrafts even if the storm is not set up well for it you can still sometimes get an updraft that decides to spin for one reason or another(landspouts) and you have a small tornado!
Also if you are already taking severe thunderstorm precautions this will likely be enough to protect you from this kind of tornado anyway( staying away from windows), of course if there is a tornado warning issued don't ever assume it will be a small one even if that is most likely the situation, just in case.
Again thanks for the special, mother nature must have known you were planning this;)
Thanks for your time!!
Nick in (cloudy/moist) St. Joe!!!
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Nick,

Thank you for your insight!

Gary

gary, to answer your question, my rain gauge said we got about 1/2 inch of rain last night when i woke up about 2 hours ago(i got to sleep in! lol) anymore storms headin our way?

*************
hey gary, just to comment on that storm a little bit last night, i watched it even after it passed us going into carroll county and actually witnessed it get worse as it went just ESE of us. than my weather radio came on and said that there was a severe t storm warning out for extreme southern livingston county. however i was unaware that it produced any kind of tornadic activity that close to us! lol looks like we just might have missed that "small tornado" up here huh?

********************
Good afternoon!!! Do you think the front will make it down here?? It is 76 out and feels GREAT!!!! We did not get any rain last night but heard thunder around 5:45 am. Have a great day!!!
Monica
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Monica,

You may get some rain later tonight, but the front is not going to get to you.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

I was out and about last night, so is there a way for me to see the weather special? Could it be posted online?
-----------------------
Nate,

We are working on getting it online tonight.

Gary

*****************
Great Job Team, keep up the good work!

Is that rain to the Southwest of us going to reach KC today/tonight? It looks awfully threatening???

Thanks and have a great day!

PS - Great job on the special!

Todd
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Todd,

There is a pretty good chance through Friday. At least one, maybe two or three bands of rain could move across.

Gary

****
The Sun is coming out here in Olathe, Do you think that is bad?
-----------------
Andrew,

Not on a day like this. It is good, go out and enjoy it.

Gary

Gary -
Thanks for posting the wind speeds!!!

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Hi, I taped your special last night and watched it today, it was great,
I am not critisizing you, by no means, Because I know weather is very difficult to forecast. But we got no rain last night. I understand that it was very scattered. but unfortunately no rain fell here. I think you could have started out with a lower percentage of rain and maybe kept with it or gone up or down. I really don't like it when other stations have an 80% chance of rain one day then the next day they have less than a 20% or even none at all. I like how you guys usually stick to your forecast. I realize most areas did get rain, it seems like it just splits around our county.I was watching the thunderstorm go right north of us this morning into downtown Kansas city and we did not get one drop. A little dissapointing but I see there are many more chances of rain in the forecast. I hope we get some out of those! Oh and great job with the forecast we are right at the forecasted high you predicted for today!
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Brent,

Thanks! And, maybe you will get the next round of rain and thunderstorms. This is a set up that picking out an area more likely to see rain is tough. I do know the chance on Saturday is looking lower.

And, you have noticed we trend up or down as a storm approaches. It is actually a good way for you to tell if we are thinking it will hit us.

Gary

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Gary,
I know this is probably a stupid question, but thats never stopped me before. On your weather special you said there would be 4-6 outbreaks. Does that mean tornado outbreaks?
Chris
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Chris,

Yes, it likely does. One of the outbreaks may not have a lot of tornadoes, but each time an outbreak sets up it will likely look like it is going to be a tornado outbreak.

GAry

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Gary,
In your severe weather special last night, you talked about the Ruskin Heights tornado. I noticed the path of this tornado went through Johnson County. If a tornado took that same path, would it hit southern Overland Park, near 147th & Antioch? Back in the 50's this was all farm country.

Dave
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Dave,

Yes. If a tornado like the Ruskin Heights one takes a similar path some day then it would be a major problem.

Gary

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Ok..to follow up on the LLJ, if I understand correctly, due to the land elevation and its relationship to surface heating, the temperature gradients that form at the 850 level create the LLJ. Is this similar to pressure gradient creating jets?

Seems like it should be related as temp differences would cause sinking or rising thus mini H and L pressures that may cause pressure gradients, thus the jet?

I closely relate temperature and pressure in my thinking as it relates to this...is this appropriate?
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Scott,

The temperture differences can lead indirectly to an increase in the low level jet stream. And, the main jet stream aloft is related to the thermal wind which is caused by temperature contrast. This is why the jet stream weakens as summer approaches. The temperature contrast becomes so weak.

Gary