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"Friday afternoon thoughts"
Good afternoon everyone,
Just a brief update. I have looked at all of the data and I need more information. It is 81 degrees in northeastern Oklahoma. This is trying to head into southeastern Kansas and a very unstable air mass is developing south of us. Let's see where thunderstorms form later today. The main storm is quite impressive by late tonight, but the state line is again near the dividing line. We are on the edge of an area that could see a lot of rain and not much?
More later today as we see the developments. The bottom line on severe weather potential is SLIGHT. There likely won't be much severe weather in our local region. Oklahoma into southern Kansas will be the most likely spot as a surface low forms and moves north into Kansas.
I played an April Fools joke on Newsradio 980 KMBZ this morning and Mike Trainer, one of our bloggers fell for the joke as he was about to take his Bassets for a walk. I said it was going to snow on Sunday night and Monday and they fell for it. Below is a picture of his dogs.
Click to enlarge (Mike Trainers Basset Hounds waiting to go outside)
Posted by at March 30, 2007 12:49 PM
Gary: The LRC should predict a pretty major storm/severe weather outbreak for Easter weekend. Anything showing up in the long range models yet?
Also, it appears that the might be considerable shear developing overnight. Do you think you might be underestimating the severe potential?
It was yesterday, but not now. I hope it doesn't materialize. Maybe it will get lost in this next cold spell. But, I still expect it by mid April. Hopefully after the 15th so I can go and visit my mom for her 70th birthday in LA.
Posted by: Craig at March 30, 2007 1:17 PM
I finally getting the 41.1 and 41.2 with 3 bars of signal. I had the Tuner getting the attenna data from my VCR you know attenna in and the attenna out. I still have my tuner connected to the VCR, so I can record DTV!! Rain Totals from Last week and this week is 2.22" most of which fell last night and this morning.
Posted by: Andrew at March 30, 2007 1:17 PM
Gary, a quick question. Some of the time you and others talk about the "cap breaking" when you talk about severe weather. Could you expand on that?
We will go into a big cap discussion in the coming weeks.
Posted by: Shawn at March 30, 2007 1:24 PM
thanks for the estimate this morning on the radio. the bassets were good 'lil Woofin'hoofers (TM) and got only a little wet! did ellen pass on the photo of the two hounds? thanks for all your work!
I just posted your photo!
Posted by: Mike at March 30, 2007 1:27 PM
What does this mean for Linn County? Are we far enough north of any severe threat?
The threat is very low!
Posted by: eric at March 30, 2007 1:34 PM
they're such the goofy hounds. abbey, on the right, was only 4 month old at the time of this pic. she's two now. i need new photos!
thanks! - mike
Posted by: Mike at March 30, 2007 2:24 PM
Last night felt good! we finally got nailed with a heavy thunderstorm and I was off work just in time to watch it roll in as I ate my hot pockets for dinner before going to bed. I saw one CG lightning strike pretty clearly during the storm there were others but I only saw one real clear. Today there were a few good rain thundershowers pass over when I was at college, and now the sun is trying to fight though the low-level clouds. Oh yea, and only upper thirties in parts of the TX. panhandle right now! As for the "big storm" part of the pattern, if this is roughly about the "New Years" part of the cycle, then we still might have 14 to 15 days before it gets here, although I kind of thought that the cold part of the pattern wouldn't really settle in until right around or after the "big storm" part of the pattern hits but it seems to be settling in before hand.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (moist/ mostly cloudy) St. Joe!!!!
Posted by: Nick Rau at March 30, 2007 2:53 PM
Hi! I noticed a cluster of thunderstorms forming south of Wichita...and they were moving to the NorthWest....that seems weird to me. Why is it moving that direction?
It is rotating around the big storm that is heading our way. This is why it could be difficult to get that large area of rain to move in.
Posted by: Monica at March 30, 2007 2:55 PM
I have noticed that the sun is starting to peek through the clouds and I wondering if that might heat up the atmosphere enough to cause problems. I don't mind the rain one bit and thunderstorms, but I don't want anything major to happen.
The severe weather threat is very low!
Posted by: megan at March 30, 2007 2:57 PM
Dear Gary, I was wondering about "Weather Plus?" Since it is 24 hrs, is it always real time or do you tape parts of the broadcast? I wished we could get it but we cannot.
We tape them and go live if it is getting serious. We tape them 3 to 4 times a day.
Posted by: Randy Senior at March 30, 2007 3:27 PM
Any reason in particular why this storm is so disorganized? It seems like so much rain is falling south of here and really struggles to move northward (until this morning). Any reason for this?
Well, it really is rather organized. That huge area of rain is well put together and will hit most of Kansas tonight. We just happen to be on the edge.
Posted by: Shawn at March 30, 2007 4:02 PM
Hi Gary, so far from last nights rain and this morning's here in Berryton my rain gauge showed 1.2 inches. Looks like one more batch coming. We are an unincorporated community just on the southeastern outskirts of Topeka but 23 miles west of Lawrence. I don't think I ever gave my exact location. Let's see how much more we get. What do you see long range after the "cold snap"? Will it stay normal or warm up in a big way? Thanks, Michael Berryton/Topeka
Posted by: mike huffman at March 30, 2007 6:11 PM
There have been reports of Golf Ball size hail by Nevada?! They should weakened by the time thay get up here.
Posted by: Andrew at March 30, 2007 6:35 PM
GREAT April Fools trick. I happen to remeber that you said that your moms birthday was on April 13th. You do know thats FRIDAY the 13th riiight? Hope so. Anyway on to weather. I looked at Wundergrounds NEXRAD radar, and it appears that slowy but surely, the storms are strenghting. Is this correct? Sevral of the storms are proudcing hail. The biggest at 1.25". So, what time do you expect them to be here? I am really hoping and looking forward to the rain.
Posted by: Alden at March 30, 2007 6:45 PM
Any chance for hail in the KC area this evening?
Posted by: Steve at March 30, 2007 6:54 PM
Is our tornado threat increasing? What can we expect in Johnson County, KS?
There is a very slim chance, but there is one thunderstorm that we are watching closely.
Posted by: Shelley at March 30, 2007 7:34 PM