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Gary, following the LRC and I know it is still early, but how does our summer look? Will it be cooler with the upper low over the Great Lakes or can we look at long periods of heat? According to the LRC, I would believe that we could have a little heat wave every now and again, but would be somewhat cooler. What are your thoughts? Mark
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Mark,

Amazingly, the pattern does continue into the summer. Which is hard to believe but I have seen it happen every year. It is a very weakened and dying state of the LRC. So, because of the weakened state alone it is hard to say what will happen. But, I think that there is enough evidence to say that there will be some cold fronts moving through this summer to keep it balanced. This is as far as my thoughts have gone at this point.

Gary

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Gary,
when you say strong cold front are you emplying below freezing, or just back to the 40's?

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Ryan,

A should be a brief shot of cooler air, nothing that would last for weeks. Lows should be below 30 and highs maybe in the 40s. Let's see if this trend continues. Keep in mind it is still winter and the average high is 51.

Jeremy

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Gary,

I'm trying to set a tee time for tommorrow afternoon. I've got buddies from MN coming on down this weekend. It's obvious the rain is coming, when do you believe the rain will be out of here on friday???

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Kevin,

Timing rain is sometimes tricky. But if you make the tee time for around 2pm that MIGHT work out. The farther west you get in the city the quicker the rain will end.

Good luck!

Jeremy

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I've been at work the last 2 days, unable to get at the computer to read the blog. The hospital frowns on that stuff. I've seen the attack web site regarding another weathercaster, read both Barnhart articles this week and also noticed that he seems to focus on one weathercaster and that's it. I took offense at that.
When I moved here from Palm Springs (where there is no weather really) I knew all about earthquake safety but nothing about tornadoes. We were stationed in Michigan when I was very young and we had a safe closet in base housing but no one had a basement. So really my knowledge of tornadoes was nil. I learned about them on TV, because when I asked locals about them they just laughed and said "It's Kansas, when you get blown away you'll have been in a tornado." I didn't find it too funny and always worried that dark clouds meant trouble.
Because of you and your coverage and now this blog, I learned what to do at home and at the hospital. I taught my kids what to do when they were little so they are fairly adept at how to handle the situation as teens now, should they end up being here alone. They know to tune in to Gary Lezak's weather and they are learning how to monitor the clouds when a storm is brewing.
I also recall one evening when the sirens went off in Lenexa and during normal activity we barely heard them. The dog started acting skittish and we opened the door and heard the siren. The TV went on and we went to the basement.
So I just want to thank your team for teaching this California girl and her family how to handle severe weather . I credit YOU with that, enough so that I signed up for one of Sean's tours!
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Jeri,

Did you choose a week for Sean't tour? Hopefully it is a wild one for you.

Gary

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my daughters 1st bday party is next weekend on st pats day what will the weather likely be cold or warm? meaning can we have them play outside in farley or total inside party? i know next weekend is a long way away and the weather changes hourly but just ageneral idea would be great
thanks shannon
ps my oldest was wondering when you were going to bring the dogs onthe air again?
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Shannon,

Stormy will be on the air with me on the 5 PM newscast Friday.

A strong cold front is due in around Thursday of next week. This would likely mean a cool day on Saturday, but hopefully dry for the party.

Gary

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Just wondering, how does one sign up for one of Sean's tours? Are you referring to Blown Away tours?

Oh, and just one quick comment about the "who's more accurate?" debate. The biggest difference to me is that when the weather is taking a sudden or unexpected turn, whether that be from good to bad OR bad to good, channel 41 is consistantly the first to see this. Case in point...last Wednesday, Gary's blog, which he posted at approx. 11:15 that morning warned of what he believed to be a severe weather outbreak that evening. I checked other sources and watched both channel 4 and 5 at noon that day, and no one else seemed to be very concerned about it. One of my kids commented that day that they wondered if 41 had better equipment or they just knew weather better than the others. I thought that was interesting. Sometimes I think meteorologists (sp?) either have weather in their blood or they don't, and you all certainly do!! Kathleen
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Kathleen,

Go to http://www.blownawaytours.com/ This is Sean Wilson's website and he offers tornado chasing tours that are just fantastic. But, a bit scary too. He stays in touch with us as he goes in search of the biggest thunderstorm.

Thank you for the kind comments and for noticing the differences.

Gary

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MY LIFE PARTNER AND I ARE EVACUEES FROM NEW ORLEANS. WE CHOSE YOUR STATION BECAUSE OF YOU. WE ARE VERY WEATHER CONCIOUS, AFTER KATRINA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INVITING MANNER. I UNDERSTAND THERE IS AN IMAX SHOW ABOUT LA. AND THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM.. CAN YOU FURNISH ME SOME INFO. I HAVE HEARD YOUR NAME MENTIONED. THANKS. DAVID AND RICHARD. PROUD RESIDENTS OF KANSAS CITY, MO.

PS. WE LOST 2 HOMES IN PASS CHRISTIAN AND A BUSINESS IN NEW ORLEANS..
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David,

Thank you so much,

We will be there through the toughest storm systems for you and all of our viewers!

Yes, I will be at the IMAX at the Kansas City zoo on Saturday! I think it is early in the afternoon. I don't have the exact time with me at this moment. I will announce it on the air on Friday, or maybe even tonight.

Gary

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Will these storms just be good ol fashioned thunder storms or is there a potential for them to be severe again?
Thanks!
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Erin,

No severe thunderstorm threat. Just some rain, and maybe a thunderstorm.

Gary

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For those that are interested, I would highly recommend a chase with Sean. I have had the opportunity to have Sean out to my classes as a guest speaker and he was great. I also had the opportunity to chase with him last spring and had a blast. The setup that day wasn't right for a tornado but the storms were sure there. I'm looking forward to going again in what is looking to be a pretty exciting spring.

Gary, I was wondering if you, or the team, would recommend any books or websites (other than the blog which is an obvious choice)for someone who wants read up on severe weather forecasting. There is so much out there it can be hard to judge what is good and what isn't.
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Rod,

There is a book by Chuck Doswell, I think it is called severe storms that is excellent. Try to find that one!

Gary

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Gary: Just a word to those who choose to chase - as you know, I did for over 20 years in Oklahoma, but what in part turned me off, was one of my chase partners, as we came upon cars rolled and truck stops trashed, was his saying "isn't this great?" Nothing could have nauseated me more, gloating over damage. And,being a Dog, I saw an overturned pick-up, back upright after it rolled, with a hound-dog, soaking wet, with sad and confused eyes that said, "I don't know what happened, where is my master?" That vision will stay with me til I die. But then again, don't pay attention to me - I think a lot more of dogs than I do of mankind generally - they don't commit terrorism, wars, gossip, sniping or other evil human vices. Humans, in general have more "sucky" qualitites than any other animals I know.

Dog
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Storm Dog,

I am with you with the unconditional love our dogs give us. We should all strive to be like that with people.

Gary

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Gary,
When you go from 77 degrees to 49, are you bound to have severe weather?
Baylee
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Baylee,

Not necessarily, but there is a slight chance of rain or thunderstorms. It is just too far away at this moment. The upper levels don't seem to favorable for a rain set up.

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Dog,according to Sean's website "We are trained in CPR and first aid. We do this because we do not pass by an area hit by a tornado to provide help, if we are the first ones on the scene." That is another reason I chose to sign up for a tour. I am trained in Advanced Cardiac Life Support and would feel very unhappy were to pass by victims and not render assistance. I saw the damage after the F4 in Wyandotte Co right around my hospital and knew employees who had their homes wiped out. I'm with you, I would never chase with someone who gloated over others' misfortune, especially doggies.

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hey gary or jeremy,
hey my sister asked me to ask you guys, she doesn't have a basemnt, so whenever there is the threat of a tornado nearby she goes and bends down behind her staircase. what she wants to know, is there a specific part of it she needs t be in like north, south east or west? or does that even matter?
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Randy,

Behind the staircase may be fine, but a bathroom or a closet in the interior of the house is likely safer!

Gary

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Gary,
on wikipedia there is a picture of the tornado that ripped through linn. it is quite impressive. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2007
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Jeff,

Thanks! Wow!!!

Gary

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Its 2am and showers and storms are approaching. The other stations brushed it off like it will be a non event, but you saw the potential and once again got it right.

Thanks for being the most dependable around
Joe

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Joe,

Thanks for the comments. We treat every forecast the same because each day is important to someone whether it is sunny or stormy.

It looks like the storms will be out of here by mid to late morning(at least around the metro).

Jeremy

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Gary and The Weather Team:

Good fine morning to everyone!!!! Been a while-March begins the big rev up time at school as I have projects/events every weekend until the end of May at school so my day job is getting in the way of my hobby!!! Not to mention that this is the time of year that other hobbies-bass fishing and camping-begin to take center stage as well!!!!

Had a lttle rain this morning here in SW Lawrence-by the looks of radar and satelite, looks like one more band may come through in the next hour or so and that will be about it for here-if we are lucky we may pick up a tenth of an inch here-have to say that looking at radar and satelite, that the precip shield looks almost dead on to what the GFS progged-interesting stuff!!!

The LRC-man what a deal!!!! It has pegged this pattern to a T and by following this BLOG and learning I have been telling friends and coworkers that for the most part, March into early April will be above average temp. wise with one true shot of colder air (ala the 12-25 Clipper) sometime around early mid Month. Winter is fading fast and as well it should-it is March!!! There never has been any doubt regarding the LRC (in my mind anyways) but looking at this winter, I don't see how anyone can deny it!! What a deal-don't know what else to say!!

That being said, late next week I think bears some watching-I think?? it lines up well with the clipper we had around Christmass but since we are much later in the year, the temp. gradient will be much larger and thus the surface weather may be much different. My first inclination is that the whole thing may be devloping over our heads and thus areas to our North and East will prob. get the brunt of it, but the models seem to be hinting at the possibility of a decent storm developing off of that temp. gradient. Could be winter's swan song for around here-as a winter lover who although is looking forward to Spring and has enjoyed the warmer temps. I would still really enjoy one last winter event-not holding my breath but it does appear some ingredients are beginning to form....always hoping!!!!

Well, thanks so much for an awesome winter on the Blog-can't say enough how much I appreciate all the feed back and transference of knowledge by all of you to me regarding the weather. It has been a great winter and while Lawrence never go hit strait on by the snow, my boys got to sled several times and walk on a lake in the spots where they will be swimming in about 2 months-priceless!!! I am kind of sad to see it go as Gary you and I have discussed we usually have about 3-4 good winters every decade (we have had now 3 this decade: 2000-2001, 2003-2004, and 2006-2007-saw where Kansas is about 1.5 degrees below normal for 2007) so when we do get the good one it is hard to let go-but, everything has a beginning and an end!!!!

Have a great day and thanks again for a great winter season-Gary you and the The Weather Team are TIGHT!!!!!!

Bill-camping gear and fishing poles out but still have the sleds waxed up in Lawrence
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Bill,

We just missed those last two big snow storms. We got tornadoes instead. I will take snow over tornadoes any day.

It isn't over yet. But, time is running out on our snow window.

Gary

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Gary:

Thanks for the response!!!

Man, we were so close on both of those storms to having a significant winter event-200 miles!!!! This is something that has fascinated me since I was a little kid: this area is so often on the dividing line between severe thunderstorms/thunderstorms/rain and a massive winter storm especially this time of year. It is what got me so into weather and what makes our weather so interesting-100-200 mile difference in the track and vola-totally different weather!!! Just fascinating!!

I totally agree with you regarding a massive winter storm vs tornados and not because I like snow-in a massive winter storm if you can get to shelter you can ride it out and be safe; in a tornado or a severe thunderstorm, even if you are inside your home, you can still have damage to life at worst and/or have your home destroyed. In 2003 if that tornado's path here had gone 200 yards differently, things would be totally different for me and my family. No comparason especially in this day and age: a winter storm can be ridden out with relative safety-a tornado-if it hits your neighborhood, you are in deep trouble!!!

Have a great day and thanks again

Bill in Lawrence
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please change the blog! I miss the forecast and the radar on the page. Please bring it back.

Thanks
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Scott,

We are continuing to get our web page to look awesome. Please be patient and then get back to us in a couple of weeks.

Gary

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Gary,
I am probably jumping the gun even asking, but do you have any ideas yet how long the next cool down may last? Also thanks for the great forcasting and the blog!
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Audrey,

The pattern seems very wavy over the next week or two, so the cold front should be followed by another warm up.

Gary

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Well, time for my perhaps unpopular blog entry this month. I like tracking snow storms, but I prefer Spring time storms more. Obviously, I am heartbroken with the human tragedy with destruction and death from some of the tornadic storms, but from a pure science perspective, modeling, tracking, and spotting mesocyclones are more interesting. Since snow can be so wide spread, it is equivalent to tracking rain storms in Spring. Because so many things have to come together just right in a very small area for tornadic storms, it is far more rare to catch one compared to getting snow from a snow storm.

That being said, as meteorologists have continued ongoing analysis and research of these types of storms, over the last few decades, meteorologists have had huge gains in the ability to learn, project, and warn the public.

Based on the LRC, I am projecting a very active Spring for severe weather. Where/when/how is impossible to tell, but the signature seems to be there.

Speaking of tornados, a new book has been released describing the tornado outbreak of May 3rd, 1999. This day haunts many of us that remember the horror of this day. The author’s site is http://nancymathis.com/ . From all reviews I have read, this is a very well written book about the events, the chases, the human drama, and meteorologist analysis of that day.
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Scott,

I think the majority of weather enthusiasts may agree with you, but I am more on the snow side of things. I love great thunderstorms, but once they become tornadic I would rather have them be over the open fields of western Kansas for the chasers to study.

Gary