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 March 27, 2007

"Hard to believe"

Good afternoon everyone,

An upper level system is moving our way from the south, but falling apart. It is not surprising that the rain hasn't been wide spread, but it still should have rained at least 1/4 inch in most areas and this just hasn't happened. There is some potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms later today as the main wave moves by so let's watch ESP closely. But, this has been a very disappointing storm system for rainfall production.

The next storm has potential to bring us thunderstorms. There may be a severe weather threat as well. Look below:
500 GFS Thursday night midnight.gif
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow forecast for Friday night)

The above map shows the upper level flow forecast for 1 AM Frida night/Saturday morning. This is just another solution that has come out. Every few hours we get a different look at how this next storm will evolve. This upper level storm is taking on a negative tilt and beginning the formation of a surface low to our south. And, look up in the Gulf of Alaska. I drew in a squiggly line to show a ridge forming aloft. This will develop a rather cold air mass for this time of year as the pattern begins to go into a colder phase. This should affect us next week. A freeze could be the result. Below, you can see the surface valid at the same time as the above map.

sfc Thur night.gif
Click to enlarge (surface map valid 1 AM Saturday morning)

And finally, to get our minds off of this frustrating weather for a minute look below. This is Breezy and Stormy watching TV Sunday night. The Apprentice LA is one of their favorite shows.
Have a great day. Maybe this weather pattern will stop its frustrating moves on us soon.


Breezy&Stormy Watching TV2.jpg
Click to enlarge (Breezy and Stormy watching the Apprentice LA on NBC Sunday night)

Gary

Posted by at March 27, 2007 11:15 AM

Comments

*****************
Gary, What a cute picture of your dogs. I love dogs, I have a mini shellti, he is hyper but other then that he is a wonderful dog. Robin
--------------------
Robin,

Thanks! I used to have a shelty years ago. Jamie lived to be almost 16 years old and he was oversized.

Gary

Posted by: robin at March 27, 2007 1:37 PM

****************
Yes we did not get even one hundredth of an inch of rain yesterday or last night. I want some rain friday, is there a good chance?
---------------------
Brent,

The chance is pretty good, but so was today's. We did just have a downpour on the Plaza.

Gary

Posted by: Brent at March 27, 2007 1:37 PM

**************
I have been keeping tabs on thursday since last week. I was wondering what type of sheer, omega values, and forcing we might have to work with. Is it still to early to tell what the main weather threats may be? Hail, Damaging winds, Tornados? The weather sure becoming exciting.
------------------
John,

We will see how it looks tomorrow. It is still a bit early, but the threat is there. There will be some fairly favorable wind speeds aloft, but the directional sheer could be a problem.

Gary

Posted by: John Moon III at March 27, 2007 2:17 PM

**************
Gary,
ITs raining down in Mound CIty, ks. Nothing big, but a nice steady pouring, has been doing so for about 5 minutes now.

l8r

eric

Posted by: eric at March 27, 2007 2:58 PM

*************
Hello weather team. I know this has probably already been said, but I really miss the links to the forecast, radar and other items that used to appear on the left of the blog. Any chance of getting those back?
-----------------------
Angelo,

I am hoping to get the blog back to where it was within 24 hours?????

Gary

Posted by: Angelo at March 27, 2007 3:29 PM

*****************
Hey Gary,

Just wondering if you think the Network will ever give you the more than the 3min. per evening you deserve. I so enjoy watching your part of the news and I have been educated by you more than any other in this area. Also, I have taken on such an intrest in weather-- I would love to go on a storm chasing tour. Do you have any recomendations for this?

Melinde
---------------------
Melinde,

Go to Blownawaytours.com and look at Sean Wilson't website.

I wish they would give me 4 minutes.

Gary

Posted by: Melinde at March 27, 2007 4:22 PM

*******************
Gary just to let you know, Berryton just on the southeast side of Topeka, I had .30 in the rain gauge through this evening from yesterday. I was diappointed too because it started raining really hard here yesterday around 3 pm and poof it has just spit a little here and there. I hope the storm system is really generating tomorrow night and Thursday. I would like to see at least 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka
-------------------
Michael,

One thing about this entire pattern....it has been frustrating, but it always produces just enough precipitation. So, we should get hit by this rain on Thursday night and then again on Saturday morning.

Gary

Posted by: mike huffman at March 27, 2007 5:42 PM

******************
Gary..not to be too picky, but the maps you posted are for 6UTC on Saturday [1AM Sat], but your blog refers to Thurs night/Friday. Am I missing something?

As far as Fri night/Sat[?]..thanks for the maps..I hadn't yet learned how to see the surface low and the trough from the 500 yet...very clear now.

Question regarding sheer. Above you mention directional sheer...are you referring to helicity? Every model I have looked at today for that time period shows good deep layer sheer, but forecasted helicity looks suspect. This should solidify in the next day. Helocity seems to be the last to come on board in the models.

Oddly, I do see some favorable conditions for Friday morning [12Z]..we will have to see if this all can clear out during the day to see what the cloud cover is doing to see what kind of convection we can get [cape]. Even the SPC in their outlook is a bit curious to see if we can get it. We shall see.
----------------------
Scott,

The helicity values will be low if there is no turning in the atmosphere. If the winds at the surface, mid levels and aloft are all the same then this is what we call unidirectional. But, sometimes local environments can be created and with a southeast inflow into an individual thunderstorm then watch out. Helicity values could then explode locally. So, we will have to watch for this.

Oh, I only had 3 hours of sleep last night. Thanks for pointing out my error. I fixed it.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 27, 2007 6:04 PM

**************
Mr. Lezak,
I only had a grand total of .05 inches from this storm at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe. I was hoping for at least one inch. Do you think I could see that much rain from this next storm on Thursday-Saturday?
Thanks, Eswar.
---------------------
Eswar,

We could see a lot of rain, but there is some potential for us getting missed too. We will soon know.

Gary

Posted by: Eswar at March 27, 2007 7:52 PM

***********
So, the cooler air should arrive sometime next week, or will it wait until Easter Week after the "big storm part of the pattern" or is next weeks cool down just a cool shot that will retreat then the "big storm" part comes, which will bring in the more intense cold air with the higher amplitude phase of the pattern, of course I'm assuming the this next storm is one of the "December Cut-Off Lows" which will be succeeded by the "big storm" part later. Do I make sense?
Today was yet another humid day with a little bit of evening rain, just enough to dampen things up, at least I got to walk in it from work, it felt good to me:) BTW, on the national weather services radar site, especially on the "standard" loop(White background) you can see the out flows coming out of some of the thundershowers, kinda neat!!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (moist/warm) St. Joe!!
---------------
Nick,

Those outflow boundaries were neat. The cold front next week looks fairly impressive but the one after that storm should be even stronger, which will be tough being that May will be approaching.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 27, 2007 8:23 PM

*********
Gary,
What are your thoughts for the severe weather event on Thursday? Do you think we will have tornados on Thursday, Thursday night? What about tomorrow, any chance of storms tomorrow? Thanks, Robin
-----------------
Robin,

It is still too early to tell, but the probability is still low.

Gary

Posted by: Robin at March 27, 2007 10:34 PM

************
Gary,
What would be our severe weather threats? Are we talking about an outbreak here?
Have a good evening:)
Summer
--------------
Summer,

For us Friday evening shows some potential. Let's see how it looks in the morning.

Gary

Posted by: Summer at March 27, 2007 10:43 PM

***************
Just wanted to point out that your Today's Forecast does not match your 7 day again. That just bugs me. Today's says high of 78 for Wednesday, 7 day says high of 75. I think it looks really sloppy when they don't match, you should have whoever makes the graphics make sure they agree.
------------------
Kimberly,

Brett just updated the forecast to 75 degrees. Although I still think it may reach 78. So, let's just say 75 to 78 degrees today. Some low clouds are spreading in and it could be a while before they move back out or break up.

Gary

Posted by: Kimberly at March 28, 2007 7:31 AM

********************
Weather Team,
Just wondering if you had a better idea about the severe weather that is gonna come this way? What is the timing? Also what can we expect, tornados, hail and high winds? Thanks, Robin
-------------------

Posted by: Robin at March 28, 2007 10:12 AM

**********************
I can see how when you change the forecast it can be different, just hard to tell which one to trust when they don't agree.

On another note, I looked at another stations forecast on their website, and they have a 20 degree difference with you guys next Tuesday. They don't anticipate the cold coming in. I know who I believe though! You guys are usually so much closer with those long range temps.
----------------------
Kimberly,

Amazing! They don't think that cold front is anything at all? Well, they will be wrong. The cold front will get our attention and we may even flirt with a freeze next week, certainly in the 30s for lows one or two mornings.

Gary

Posted by: Kimberly at March 28, 2007 11:05 AM

 
 

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