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 March 26, 2007

More Rain Chances this week

Good morning,
Spring has sprung in Kansas City. The trees are blossoming, flowers are blooming and we are getting the much needed Spring rains. More rain is possible this week. Today is tricky in terms of the timing of the rain. When forecasting, most of our errors come in timing. Think about it, how many times have you said, "I thought it wasn't supposed to rain until tonight, or this afternoon"?
For instance, today there is a chance of rain. An upper low in Texas will send weak disturbances our way and one could arrive as early as this afternoon. As you can see below on the Rapid Update Cycle model, or the RUC, scattered rain showers are in the metro area by 3pm.
Click to Enlarge
RUC_March26.bmp

They should be widely scattered so I don't think everyone gets rain this afternoon but by this evening, it appears a more widespread area of rain moves, but with that said the rain amounts still look light, a quarter to a half inch.

Okay, later this week a strong cold front moves into the region. It brings with it a slight risk for severe weather but it looks like it would be more a line of severe weather then rotating supercells.
It also appears there is a chance to have some heavy downpours if a wave develops along the front.
Below is the latest precipitation map for Thursday night and Friday morning.
Click to Enlage

Thursday_March29th.gif

We will keep an eye on it. Should be a fun week.
Brett

Posted by at March 26, 2007 6:18 AM

Comments

*****
Brett, Can we expect any severe weather today? Thanks, Robin
*****
Robin,
Hi, no severe weather today but a rumble thunder is possible.

Brett

Posted by: Robin at March 26, 2007 7:42 AM

******
Brett,
We are having a garage sale Friday and Saturday. What do you think the rain chances are?
Roberto
******
Roberto,
Right now, it looks Friday morning around daybreak could be wet with clearing skies as the morning progresses. Saturday is dry.

Brett

Posted by: Roberto at March 26, 2007 7:44 AM

********
Brett,
So what would our main threats be with this line of storms on Thursday?
Jacob
********
Jacob,
I see a line of thunderstorms with high winds, possible, possible.
Brett

Posted by: Jacob at March 26, 2007 8:10 AM

********
It's going to be a little shock on Friday morning...lol. Is there any chance that these chances of rain get us a little closer to normal for rainfall for the year?
********
Stephen,
By Friday morning we should be caught up!
Brett

Posted by: Stephen at March 26, 2007 10:41 AM

********
Hi, I've got a few questions this morning:

1. For those of us not in your viewing area and didn't see last week's spring weather special, could you provide a summary of how you see this spring's weather pattern?

2. Last week there was a post about later this week a signficant change in the weather pattern, with the main jet stream dipping south and bringing colder and stormy weather. Now I'm not hearing any more about it - do you think this is still going to happen?

3. You indicate more rain chances this week with a strong cold front coming in later, but on the precip map it does not show any rainfall for the western part of Kansas or further west to Colorado. Are the western areas going to be skipped (I hope not)?

Thanks,

Doug
*********
Hi, Our Spring weather pattern looks active. Watch for cooler air to return at the beginning of April.
In regards to storminess. There is a potential for 4 to 6 tornado outbreaks across our region. Region being an area from Nebraska and Iowa to the North, Western Kansas to our west and Oklahoma and Arkansas to the south. So anywhere in that large area.
As for later this week. Thursday into Friday it looks like rain then a small chance late into the weekend and cooler.

Brett

Posted by: Doug at March 26, 2007 11:17 AM

*******
I want to be the first to admit the fact I hosed up the Sunday forecast. I had all the elements correct except for the absent dryline and moisture. All other ingredients were there. Just goes to show that nothing is an easy formula, and all or parts in different percentages are required.

Thurs/Fri. - This looks like a hoot. I think there will be supercells that will form into complexes and become more linear later in the day. Watch out for the ones that split off. I think as it looks now, the majority of the supercell type storms will be NW of KC. Looking at some progs, I am seeing some values already 40-50K CravenBrooks. Most of the ingredients look to be there for some fun. Lets see what happens to the ULL as it comes through..if it dips/digs or slows down, then it will be more interesting. As mentioned above...timing is everything!
*******
We'll watch it!

Posted by: Scott at March 26, 2007 11:26 AM

***************
I know we need rain. I can't see why anyone NEEDS snow. But, like the folks who feel if it's gonna be cold and snow then we should have blizzards, I feel if it is going to rain on my days off, it really should be more interesting. Scott always sees the potential for supercells somewhere, just never here. SIGH!
--------------
Jeri,

I have been trying to make the point of not talking about severe weather so early. Last week the tornado chaser chatter was way over the top for so early in the season. It almost did nothing through the entire region. But, each two to three day period we should look at it closely.

Now, I am one who wants it to snow again and a lot. But, I don't want a freeze. So a 33 degree snow would be perfect. But, it is still unlikely.

Gary

Posted by: Jeri Correll at March 26, 2007 11:58 AM

 
 

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