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Hi Gary!!! You all missed out on good rain but we recieved decent amounts. Right now, after your 5pm newscast, we are at exactly one inch of rain. It is nice a wet down here. Would write more but we are getting ready to celebrate Emma's 4th Birthday Party. Everyone says, "Hello".
Monica
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Monica,

Happy birthday to Emma! Wow, one inch of rain. I will mention it at 6 PM.

Gary

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hey gary,
just checkin in. we got roughly about 1/3 of an inch up here in chillicothe...so far, it is still raining but thats the amount we've got as of now. you think theres more to come?
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Randy,

You have some more, but the next few days have even better potential for heavy rain.

Gary

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Well you were close here. we have .4 inches in our gauge.
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Brent,

We will get more soon.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak, any chance of thunderstorms developing as the warm front moves in later tonight.

Some of the forcasts call for strong thunderstorms late tomorrow night instead of on Thursday. Any chance of severe weather?
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Ben,

Late tomorrow night is Thursday. The best chance is during the early morning hours on Thursday.

Gary

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Good evening Gary. Here in Berryton/Topeka we only got .15, disappointing for sure. That rain storm acted just like the one December 20th where it went and stayed more to our south and redeveloped to our southeast. I saw on the radar at work the slice of rain up through KC but it must not have been much. We are nearing to be over 1 and a half inches behind for the year unless we pick some up over the mext 5 days. Wish we could watch your special, our daughter who lives in Overland Park will tape it for us. Take care, Michael
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Michael,

Set that VCR or TVO. Don't worry too much about being dry. I think it is going to get somewhat wet.

Gary

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Gary,
We really appreciate how accurate you are. While other stations were predicting the rain wouldn't start until the afternoon drive home. You said it would start around 2pm. My husband and daughter put grass seed out and at 1:44 it started to sprinkle. The both looked at each other and said "Gary said it would start around 2pm!" It's been a nice gentle rain that was just what we needed. You're fun too watch and and I love how excited you get about the weather. It's contagious!! Thanks for the great smile and keep up the good work.

Julie
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Julie,

Thanks so much! Now, let's see what happens the rest of the week.

Gary

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Gary,

I was suprised when checking my rain guage here in Grain Valley, .35. Not to bad but still dissapointing.

Jeff
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Jeff,

Maybe we will get much more Thursday morning.

Gary

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Gary, checking in from 119th and Ridgeview in Olathe with .25, sounds like we're in for more the next few days. Always good to have spring rains, helps us out down the road! Peace, out. Greg.
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Greg,

Thanks! Peace out to you too.

Gary

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o man, gary,
i forgot to mention i'm gonna be going to the storm spotters meeting down in carrollton tomorrow night right at the same time as your special! dont worry though, im taping it, lol... gotcha! i already have it programmed and a fresh tape in the tv, its ready to go! i look forward to it too.
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Randy,

Fantastic! Let us know how the meeting goes!

Gary

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Weather Team-
Do you guys think our thunderstorms on Wednesday night will have tornadoes or will it be more of a hail and wind threat?
Fred
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Fred,

Everyone seems to be concerned with tornadoes on Wednesday night. Maybe in Nebraska, but not here. On Thursday morning there could be some hail though.

Gary

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Gary I would like to be a weather spotter for the Station what information do u need?
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Daniel,

The best way to start is by just providing us your rainfall information here on the blog. But, why don't you email me at lezak@nbcactionnews.com and we will get you down on our spotter list. We want your home phone number and your city!

Gary

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We may see some isolated supercell activity. SPC and NWS is hinting at it. The SREF products are showing good Cravens potential. I think likely we will be capped for a good bit before breaking through late afternoon. I think by that time, the trend is going to be more linear. I do see a good chance of some severe thunderstorms producing hail and wind. Just not so much tornadic this late in the window. We will have pretty good lift nearby and good lapse rates, with a bit of sheer..just don't know if we will pop the cap in time.

The warm front will be long gone by then, but the upper level low tracking along the northern stream will drop down a dryline in Nebraska and extreme N. Kansas. I think most of our fun will come in advance of the strong cold front draping down...
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Scott,

Exactly, and this is why the tornado threat is extremely small. And, when it is over 24 hours away I think you can just say "there may be some severe weather, but we will let you know tomorrow". Unless it is truly a serious threat, which this is not. But, I agree with you a line of thunderstorms could be impressive on Thursday morning. Hail could be a factor.

And, some meteorologists at this time of the year just talk about severe weather threats every day. It sort of drives me nuts. It would be like saying there is a chance of snow every day for weeks and it snowing only once. It is just not something I think is a good idea to do.

So, there is a threat of severe weather on Thursday morning, or very late on Wednesday night. Fine! But, leave it at that until we get to the day before. It isn't like a snowstorm. It really just scares people.

Gary

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Startin to see a lil lightning up here.no rain yet though. hey gary, i was watching another stations forecast before i switched over to yours(yours aired a lil late tonight). katie said there's a chance of supercell activity thursday morning, not strong chance but its there. and than you said in your forecast just a few minutes ago that there could be some possibility up in north western missouri, n\maybe this is a question i should've saved for tomorrow night when you'll know for sure(and i'll watch your forecast tomorrow night also) but is there any chance that chillicothe might see a little severe thunderstorm activity? just wondering.
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Randy,

It is just scaring viewers again. Come on, it isn't until Thursday morning anyway. We will see how it sets up, but to me the threat is there, but mainly hail.

Gary

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I give tonight's rain event a D+, not much rain, but it did last a while with some drizzle, and now it has evolved into a THICK fog, typical warm front event, rain,drizzle, and then fog!! I just hope that when and if we go get some good thunderstorms they occur when I'm awake!! Thats one thing that irritates me, finally getting a good storm but it's at 3 o'clock in the morning, unless it's summer and I'm not in college, then I will stay up with a can of Pepsi and watch it:) None of my classes are meeting tomorrow so I decided to stay up after work and write this.
Thanks for your time!!!
Nick in (densely shrouded) St. Joe!!
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Nick,

Yes, this first storm, which wasn't much of storm from the beginning, just didn't produce enough rain. The warm front was rather impressive, but we just couldn't get anything widespread and heavy going. There are some other problems with tonights chance. We will see how it sets up.

Gary

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Come on Gary, you missed out twice in a row now! Yesterday you said we would have an inch and a half - we only had about a quarter inch. Last night you said we would have a half inch - we had less than a quarter inch. Whats up with Kansas City's most accurate?
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Jason,

Sort of yes and sort of no. Our forecast for rainfall amounts was certainly off. But, I never said we "would have" an inch and a half, actually look at the blog I believe I said we could get 1/4 inch but I am leaning in the direction of the higher amounts. Over an inch fell, but two counties south of us. The bottom line is we predicted rain and it rained. Our temperature forecast was almost right on going for upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday during the day and then warming up to near 60 during the overnight hours which happened almost exactly. So, really it did everything we said it would with the exception of getting the exact rainfall amount!

If you are going to judge our accuracy on an exact rainfall amount then we will fail you most times. This doesn't mean that we are not trying to get that forecast exactly right. We are, but just like a snow forecast, this part of forecasting is almost impossible. If we are predicting snow and 5 inches is our forecast. But, then only 2 inches accumulate, or perhaps 8 inches falls, but it snowed I still feel we got it right. It snowed. Not a perfect forecast but one that would get a high grade, maybe a B+ for that situation. Do I want a B+, no but when combined with all of our forecasts we may still get an A on the final.

Now, if the rain would have missed us, then it would have been a bad forecast. And, I did not forecast another 1/2" for last night. That forecast is for tonight.

Gary