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 March 29, 2007

Overnight Developments

Good Morning,
The Storms Predicition Center says 65 tornadoes possible touched down last night throughout the central southern plains. Two people were killed in Oklahoma. The severe weather threat shifts a little east today but the slow nature of the main upper low spinning over the four-corners this morning keeps the main threat just west of KC.
The "SPC" map below reveals a 30% chance of hail over Nebraska southward into Central Kansas.
Click to Enlarge
day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

While this map points toward a 5% chance of tornadoes over much of the same.
Click to Enlarge
day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

Still there is a slight risk of severe weather later today, this afternoon here in KC.
I am sure you will also notice these two maps include a 15% chance of hail in our viewing area and a 2% chance of a tornado. Still, those are low probabilities.
We still think the best chance of severe weather is late Friday night into Saturday morning, there could be some heavy rain but we'll have to see how it sets up tomorrow.

Have great day,
Brett


Posted by at March 29, 2007 7:38 AM

Comments

*********
Hey Brett, I sure am glad we have not had any sort of weather that severe. I have some friends that are getting married on Saturday... outside :-/ I was curious to how you think the weather is going to be. The wedding will be about 3:30pm in Blue Springs. How are things looking sir?

********

Jameson,

Rain chances decrease by Saturday afternoon. I don't think we can completely rule out a shower at this point, but make sure to check in again over the next 24 hours.

Posted by: Jameson at March 29, 2007 8:21 AM

*********************
While out this morning, I noticed the incoming cumulus clouds and watched the structures...they were leaning towers up to almost 45 degrees. Obviously, these are being sheered. Even some of the upper air soundings seem pretty good near here. I think cloud cover will get us today, but maybe we can catch some of the dying storm outflow boundries to rebuild. Just one thought that I learned a few weeks back regarding chances of severe weather....May 3rd, 1999...OKC was only in a slight risk.

;-)
-----------------------
Scott,

On that May 3, 1999 day everything was there. It was an explosive set up, but it appeared there would be limited chance of a cap breaking. Well, the cap broke very early in the day as there was a stronger than expected wave. The rest is history. We do not have anything close to an ideal set up today around us. We may still get some redevelopment this afternoon on the outflow from these thunderstorms to our west.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 29, 2007 8:28 AM

********
It seems every other question asks about severe weather potential. While I do find this exciting , my son is in school in the TX panhandle and I was concerned about the tornadoes hitting there. Fortunately, he was to the west of Amarillo. I also don't like to see anyone hurt or killed. While it can be exciting, I also keep tabs so I can keep my family, my neighbors, and my patients safe. And to those of you who think Phoenix weather is boring.. my parents lost their roof 3 years ago in a storm, flooding is a problem during monsoon season, microbursts are more common than you think, dust storms cause lots of car accidents, and the only funnel cloud I have ever seen in my life was on Phoenix's west side. I grew up there and while tornado potential is not like here, they have occured there, and the storms can be quite wild with the wind shears.

*********

Jeri,

The weather is certainly different in the Plains versus the desert Southwest. Even when I moved from WI to KC I noticed changes in the weather...especially in the microclimates.

I understand when people get excited about severe weather, even I do. Storms are fun to watch, just not when they do damage and affect people's lives.

Jeremy

Posted by: Jeri Correll at March 29, 2007 8:48 AM

*******
Here in Bonner it poured for about 5-10 minutes about 20 minutes ago. I really need to get a rain gauge.

*******

Keri,

Thanks for the update. Consider yourself lucky that you had a rain shower move overhead this morning!

Jeremy

Posted by: Keri Worley at March 29, 2007 9:30 AM

New Outlook less severe

Posted by: Charles at March 29, 2007 9:34 AM

*********
Gary,

What a crazy night in Western Kansas! I have been monitoring the forecasts and both tonight and tomorrow have us under the slight risk of severe weather. Where does it look like the low will track? Thanks for keeping us updated.

Ryan

********

Ryan,

65 tornado reports in the U.S. yesterday. The better chance of severe weather in KC looks to be on Friday.

Jeremy

Posted by: Ryan at March 29, 2007 9:46 AM

*********
Latest SPC convective outlook has moved the 30% hail probability all the way down to central TX and the 5% tornado probability from the Red River valley down through central TX. We are still in the 2% range, though as well as the 15% hail probability. Speaking of the convective outlooks, you can do a search on past ones. I took a look at the one from May 4, 2003. It still sends chills down my spine.

*********

Justin,

The severe threat today looks very small. We'll have to monitor the threat for Friday as it looks like we stand a better chance of seeing severe storms.

Jeremy

Posted by: Justin at March 29, 2007 10:01 AM

******
If the severe threat is low today..why are all three of you there? LOL

******

Scott,

On my normal schedule I work Thursday & Friday. Just Brett is here besides me...Gary and Jeff will be in this afternoon.

Friday might be a different story though...we'll see.

Jeremy

Posted by: Scott at March 29, 2007 11:23 AM

********
Weather Team,
So we are not expecting much in the way of severe weather around here today, is that right? And do you expect tornadoes tomorrow and tomorrow night? Thanks, Robin

********

Robin,

The chances of severe weather are very small today.

Jeremy

Posted by: Robin at March 29, 2007 11:30 AM

*********
when I was at college earlier I saw a pretty good shower to my west but it was dry, then coming home it started to rain lightly but the roads were soaked more than they would be in just a light sprinkle, so I probably missed a good downpour by a minute or two, but at least I caught the tail end of it:)
heres to hoping for some good window rattling rumblers!
It's cloudy right now but do you think that the warm front may still be able to muster up a few storms?
Nick in (cloudy/moist) St. Joe!!

*********

Nick,

There are some thunderstorms just to your SE right now. More storms are in the forecast for tonight...if you miss out of the afternoon showers and storms.

Jeremy

Posted by: Nick Rau at March 29, 2007 11:45 AM

*********
I'll consider myself lucky...NW Ray County received a short downpour this morning.

I just beat it, and got my cool weather garden seeds planted this morning.

Any guestimate of when the last frost will be???

********

Jody,

Glad you saw a little rain this a.m. You may see another round this afternoon.

The cooler part of the cycle arrives in April...so another couple of frost/freezes are possible.

Keep in mind overnight lows SHOULD be in the 30s right now.

Jeremy

Posted by: Jody at March 29, 2007 12:06 PM

********
Looks like Gary snuck in some comments earlier..that is why I asked.

This surface low that forms on the tail of the ULL seems to slow down a bit from what I first thought...Sat seems to be a day to watch as well for just a bit more fun? Dunno..it has some ingredients missing..but one can wishcast, right?

Thoughts?

*********

Scott,

Gary is always working:) He often does the blog and answers questions from home. If there was a good chance of severe weather you would be right, we would all be at work.

The timing is a little strange with the Friday Night/Saturday storm. A widespread rain is possible Friday Night, but if the ULL hangs around and some sun breaks out on Saturday...storms might re-develop. This time of year is fun!

Jeremy

Posted by: Scott at March 29, 2007 12:34 PM

********
Weather Team-
Why won't anyone tell us what our threat's will be for tomorrow? Several people have asked but you keep dancing around the question.

*********

John,

When it comes to forecasting severe weather we could go on the air like some stations and continually tell people there is threat for tornadoes, hail, and wind every time there is a slight risk for storms. I don't want to mislead people, but yet I want to keep everyone informed and safe. This morning we mentioned that the threat of severe weather today was very small and mainly for marginal hail. So far there have not been any severe thunderstorms within the viewing area. Severe weather is tricky to forecast and usually affects a small or isloated area. So we are trying to let everyone know that the potential exists for severe weather on Friday, but the timing of storms is still a bit up in the air. Since the timing is still up in the air so might be the main threat from the storms(tornadoes, hail, or wind). I apologize if it seemed like I was dancing around the subject, but there is a slight risk of severe weather later on Friday and Friday Night.

Jeremy

Posted by: John at March 29, 2007 1:07 PM

*******
Hey Guys,

Good news! Kc will get some "official" rain today. It's pouring something fierce at KCI right now. Looks like it will be relatively short lived though for now.

********

TW,

Thanks for the report. Rained hard a couple of times at the station...but not for very long. We'll keep an eye on the severe weather risk for you on Friday. Thanks for checking in.

Jeremy

Posted by: TW at March 29, 2007 1:24 PM

****************
Hello Weather team. 2 Questions.
Why is the rain towards topeka falling apart, and there seems to be some sun trying to come out in central kansas, will this allow the atmosphere to distabalize and produce strong storms this evening for the viewing area?
---------------
Ben,

Somehow the stronger thunderstorms again formed just northeast of the city.

Gary

Posted by: Ben Tracy at March 29, 2007 1:30 PM

*******
Yay we got some much needed rain today!
two nice little thunderstorms passed over us and we have .5 inches in the rain guage.
I think some of us may have to deal with some flash flooding later on. there are very large areas of water sitting in my yard from these heavy rain storms.

*******

Brent,

Great news! Hopefully with a few showers and storms here and there over the next couple of days everyone will see something in the rain guage.

Heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that lingers over the same area. Along with any type of severe weather this time of year, flash flooding also needs to be a concern when storms that are slow moving.

Jeremy

Posted by: Brent at March 29, 2007 1:31 PM

********
over here in the worlds of fun area we have had 2 real heavy and quick rain showers. too bad there is not thunder with them...but it is still nice to see the rain.

**********

Nikie,

Thanks for the report. Looks like the heaviest of the rain is to your east now.

Jeremy

Posted by: nikie at March 29, 2007 1:35 PM

*********
I completely disagree with John. KSHB's weather team has not "danced around the question." In fact, they have been very up front about the extremely low chances of tornados and such. And the key as always is, "New Data!" I jest of course, but just because the same question is asked 5 times an hour doesn't mean they have any new info to tell us.

*********

Hank,

Thanks for the post. I understand sometimes people don't look through the past comments page...so often times we get a lot of repeat questions...which we will always try to answer. People either love or hate severe weather...and we want to keep everyone updated.

Jeremy

Posted by: hank at March 29, 2007 1:40 PM

***********
I see that ESP is showing a TVS, anything on velocity, because I have StormLab Pro up and no TVS yet.

*********

Andrew,

I was just looking at that myself. I checked out the velocities and didn't see anything exciting. So far it looks like anything in the storms is a little hail. We keep an eye on things though.

Jeremy

Posted by: Andrew at March 29, 2007 1:43 PM

Hank is a brown noser

Posted by: John at March 29, 2007 1:54 PM

Do you feel like you get dinged if you do and dinged if you don't? LOL At the very top of today's blog are maps showing the slight potential for severe weather. Maybe once the blog gets fixed the link to the NWS will be back, if what you show isn't enough. They can see the same maps but maybe more detailed text.
I think you have answered the question of severe weather. It is minimal today at best and there is a chance on Friday. Short of actually producing a tornado at will from the station I don't think there is much else to say.
When there has been a chance of severe weather , in the past, you have always provided updates on the blog during that day to keep us informed. Although I am still waitng to go chasing with Sean and need some scary weather to get my turn to go, only Mother Nature can make it happen. I think you've been very upfront about your thoughts on the threat for today and tomorrow.
Like one of my co worker jokes, if he wants a particular type of weather he just changes the channels until he finds one that says what he wants! Then he goes back to you for the truth, of course.

Posted by: Jeri Correll in Lenexa at March 29, 2007 1:56 PM

Hey guys,
Will the storms that are exploding over Oklahoma City and the KS/OK border make it to our neck of the woods tonight or are we expecting other redevelopment closer to home?

Thanks and keep up the great work!
Todd

Posted by: Todd at March 29, 2007 2:34 PM

**************
Doesn't SPC go off of reports? Therefore there were 65 reports not 65 tornadoes...big difference.
-----------------
Kay,

Exactly! 65 reports can sometimes turn out to be 20 tornadoes. But, more likely it is around 35 to 45 which is amazing.

Gary

Posted by: Kay at March 30, 2007 1:08 PM

 
 

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