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Gary & Team
With the cold front moving through in a few days, I'm curious whether this is a transitory thing that will just last a week or so, or are we looking at the temps falling back to more normal levels for the month of April... and perhaps May? (I hope so, no a/c or heating bills for a couple of months would be great!)
Thanks again for all your hard work and dedication.

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Aunti,

We are heading into the cooler part of the pattern in April. So temps should at least get back to average or even below average for a chance. I don't think April will be a terrible month for a/c bills.

Jeremy

Jeremy

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Just a Question. On an MCS When is it correct to call bow echoes Derechos. Is it a linear line with many bow echoes. Or Is it an MCS with Sustaining Bow Echoes that hold togather producing Continus wind damage over a Hundred miles or so. I know the Term Derecho has been around since about 1880 but you dont hear that term used much. Im in a Quandry as when to call it a Derecho

Steve Newport
De Soto Kansas

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Steve,

Derechos are very common where I just came from, WI. I believe the highest non tornado wind gust in WI history came from a derecho(over 100mph!). They produce long lived damaging wind events. Typically in a bow echo on the radar. These type of events are very common with an MCS.

Jeremy

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...EXTREME NRN MO...IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311530Z - 311700Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO
WATCH...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

BAND OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PIVOTING
AROUND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IN
WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING CYCLONE...ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
BUT...INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG LIFT.

INITIATION OF LOW TOPPED STORMS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXIT REGION OF A 70+ KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL
JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY EASTWARD ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA...BENEATH 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS. ENHANCED BY AMBIENT VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION
TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA.

AN ARCING BAND OF STORMS SEEMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE SOUTH/ SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY. AND...AS CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND INTERACT
WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 21Z.

..KERR.. 03/31/2007


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

41949667 42459632 42789502 42239246 41449167 40539191
40349344 40339442 40299497 40169611 40979676 41619684

Looks like St. Joseph and up in Nebraska are next for Severe WX.

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I know you get tired of waiting and tired of being asked, but when will the blog go back to its "cool" format? Im almost acustom to this "new" blog, and I dont want to be. Anyword yet on it, or will it just stay this way forever and ever?
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Alden,

We have been told that by the end of next week it will be better than it was before the switch. So, I will let you bloggers be the judge of this next Friday. We will see.

Gary

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Jeremy/Gary-

The winds sure are strong today. What is the forecast for the winds for this evening and tomorrow? Any break?

Marcus in Louisburg

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Marcus,

The winds will let up a bit tonight...but still breezy. Probably 10-18 overnight. Then on Sunday around 12-22 mph. So the wind does not leave anytime soon. Monday looks quite windy too with winds out of the south.

Jeremy

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80 degrees in April is not awesome.

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Brian,

Everyone loves something different about the weather. 80s in April are not that uncommon. The average is 70 by the end of the month.

Jeremy

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Weather Team,

1.61 inches, on the South side of Grain Valley.

Also, though I don't want any freezing temps, I noticed you guys were several days ahead of other forcasts on the upcoming possible freeze.

Jeff

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Jeff,

Thanks for the rain total. It looks much cooler later this week. A possible freeze will depend on sky condition and also winds.

Jeremy

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I will preface with knowing what I am about to say isnt possible.

If you look at the WV and the Enhanced over the last 12 hrs, this surface low is sooo well defined, it appears to have an eye. In additon, the last 6 hours look like it went through a Eye Replacement Cycle [ERC]. Sometimes its hard to remember that there is a significant difference between cold and warm core storms..especially when they begin looking similar on satellite.

Nice little storm this was...very good for chasers. Hope Sean made a bit of money this weekend. Does he ever send you any pics, Team?

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Scott,

This storm was nice...we saw rain and basically no severe weather. I like the excitement of severe weather, but not the damage it results in(if that makes sense).

The next 7 days provide some big chances in the forecast...but as of now no big precip. makers. The second week of April should get more interesting.

Outside of Sean's website I haven't seen any current pictures of tornadoes from him.

Jeremy

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I have had a total of 2.40 inches at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe from the past two days. Thanks, Eswar

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Eswar,

Thanks for the total. I was at an Easter Egg Hunt at 151st in Olathe today with my family. The ground was very squishy!

Jeremy

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WOW, this has been an amazing storm system, last night areas of heavy downpours, then today high winds, St. Joe had a gust of at least 48 m.p.h today! so that was like a strong thunderstorm with out the thunderstorm:) And with that we had a temp drop from the upper 60's this morning to lower 50's now and we went from building cumulus clouds, to small fair weather cumulus to now stratus with mist!
there was also a tornado watch just to our north too. All in all an impressive weather period!
Now it is time for all the plants to watch out!
Nick in(chilly/windblown) St. Joe!!!!!

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Nick,

This storm had it all...except severe weather:) Winds were crazy today! I was outside for a while and was a bit surprised at some of the wind gusts.

Jeremy