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Gary over the past 24 hours we have received .68 inches in Berryton. However, Billard Airport is like KCI (except minature in size) they reported only .33 officailly which leaves Topeka over 1.5 inches behind for the year. Fascinating. I clearly see the pattern from, didn't you say, last December because you all got more precip than us because it stayed south and moved up to KC via Lawrence and so forth. So it will be another 3 weeks or so before we get back into a wet pattern for this area, maybe next week we could get a shower. Take care, Michael
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Michael,

No, it could get very wet the week after next.

Gary

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Mr. Lezak,
I had another half inch of rain last night at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe. That brings the total from this storm to exactly one inch. Thanks, Eswar.
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Eswar,

Awesome,

I am going to make a rainfall map for 6 PM, or at least show the area rainfall totals for the past three days.

Gary

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Ok..I have poured over the GFS and the SREF [I throw NAM out anymore..don’t like it]. In looking at things this weekend, Sunday may be of slight interest. The SPC hints at a dryline in the vicinity from the vort up in Neb.

[“LOW WILL MOVE IN UNISON WITH UPPER SYSTEM INTO MN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NERN KS AND INTO SWRN TX. “]

Also, I see that the 500mb nose of the vort max nears this area with 50-60kts. Also..I see just a hint of divergence ahead of the ULL. In addition, I am seeing ample convective ingredients. I see temps that may come close to 80, though I am hedging to the lower to mid 70’s, I see 60+ dewpoints, warm surface heating potential, translating to 1500-2500 J/kg MCAPE, as well as LIs of -4. Sheer will be a bit light, but perhaps near 30kts, enough to sustain potential supercell development. 0-1K helocity is marginal at this point with only about 100m2/s2. Also, for those scoring at home where the above is somewhat cumbersome, the CravenBrooks puts us at 10K easy, with a small area just NE of KC at 20K. [Severe weather composite factoring in much of the above into just one “score�]

Here is how I see it panning out. I think we will be capped during the mid morning into early afternoon, with some discrete supercells developing generally right in this area, and building/tracking NE along the dry line. I am not sure I am thinking anything near an outbreak at all, but just some potential isolated supercells forming. Probably more hail makers than spinners due to the low side of the helocity and marginal sheer. I think NW Missouri up into Iowa see a bit more before running out of fuel. I think the fun should be between 5-9PM for this area and a bit later up north.

All this said, this is just a guess based on models two days out. I will be curious if this pans out.
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Scott,

Based on the developments in the upper levels and with the system splitting in two I am not expecting a dryline bulgining into eastern Kansas. I lean heavily in the dry line staying west of central Kansas and this is where there could be a slight chance. This is why we go day by day with something this delicate.

Gary

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Nice steady rain in Leavenworth.

Any chance tonight. NOAA has potential for severe weather later this evening.
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Ben,

I see no evidence of anything forming this evening, so I think we won't have that threat until tomorrow morning.

Gary

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Dunno..maybe I am crazy. I don't see this system splitting in two. I see the current ULL cutoff ejecting into Neb. What replaces this ULL in the Baja is some residual vort that gets pulled down from the Northern jet. I see that the ejection will carry most of the energy northward, and the s. branch ULL is pretty weak and should not interfere. We will see.

Side note...I found this sounding in TX today where the tornadic potential exists. This is a good sounding to see what severe potential looks like. I know I will wait for another time for further analysis, but I am still trying to find the "gun" signature! Its driving me crazy! I did find one near by that had a "gun" look but was not near as wicked as the one I am including.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/07032318_OBS/

-Hopelessly confused -
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Scott,

I glanced at the sounding and I may have time to look deeper into it. I see a nice little cap there but it is pretty impressive otherwise.

The upper low really sort of kicks out as a wave rotates around the back side. It does split, but maybe 80% of it comes out.

Gary

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It looks like there are storms firing to the west. Will thet reach us in a weakened state or will they not hit us at all?
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Brent,

I was just on the air, and I tracked those thunderstorms. They are moving north northeast so I think it would be at least 4 AM. Let's see how the develop and move during the next few hours.

Gary

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YOu must be incredibly frustrated by now with the lack of progress on your website.

One more thing I noticed today when I tried to sign my wife up for weather alerts on her cell phone -- that link is broken.
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Teach,

I hear that next week a lot of this will finally be fixed! Let's see what we think by next Friday.

Gary

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What about the batch of rain and t-storms west of the I-35 batch, as unscientific as that sounds? Will they make it here? It looks as if they are growing and moving in an east, northeasterly direction. Kathleen
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Kathleen,

It will be close, but it may go to our north.

Gary

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Evening Gary & team. Having recently come into the DT era (and figured out the remote, lol) I am fianlly able to get your Action weather channel. It's really nice, but I'm curious if when the radar comes up, if your able to put it into loop mode so we can see which way the storms are moving? I ended up booting up the computer to check instead tonight.
Thanks
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Aunt Icey,

We can. The way we have it set up right now, the computer takes an image for our web, and when we have the radar in motion it sort of messes that up. But, we will try to remember to do it.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak, what is the chance of storms developing tomorrow afternoon in the Leavenworth area? Any Severe?

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Ben,

The threat of rain in Leavenworth is very small on Saturday afternoon. The warm front is well to your north and so should most of the showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has taken almost all of the viewing area out of the slight risk. However, if a thunderstorm would develop it may have some hail or gusty winds...but the chance of this happening is very small.

Jeremy

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Being on the south side of the metro, We have missed out on a lot of the rain waves.Are there any rounds that are supposed to go south of the city? It seems that the rain the past few days has gone up north of us or south of us.

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Brent,

When I worked last weekend I mentioned that there were a lot of rain chances in the forecast, but not everyone would see rain each time or even an inch for the entire week. The totals have varied greatly this week. Downtown KC near 1", but in your case, not much. The best rain chances today are in northern Missouri and northern Kansas. So don't expect much if any rain today or on Sunday.

Jeremy

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Once again, we missed out on the rain in Sedalia. I put down fertilizer and pre emergent in hopes of rain, but all we got all week was 0.16 inches. Since we are in the limbo forecast area between KC and Colubmia, we are seldom included in a detailed forecast and are usually blocked by the metorologists standing in front of us on the map. Still, NOAA forecasted as of Monday, from 2-4 inches of rain, which was revised out day by day. Who then can I depend on for accurate forecasts? Apparently noone. I never know if I should water, wash the car or go get a tan.

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Sam,

Rain totals have varied greatly over the past 4 days. Some areas have seen nearly 2", while others like you have picked up less than two tenths. Spring and Summer often bring storms that give one area an inch of rain and just a mile or two down the road there are only sprinkles. I would say at this point water your lawn. The chance of rain for the rest of today and on Sunday is slim to none(especially in Sedalia).

Jeremy

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How does the weather look for Royals opening day at the K on April 2nd?

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Doc,

Don't hold me to this...because this is off one model run. But as of now there is a system close to KC...if this moves slower or farther south there could be a chance of showers. If it stays north then probably 70s and breezy. Right now the front is north on the long range model. This will very likely change...so check back.

Jeremy

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Is there going to be any more severe storms today.

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Jake,

There were no severe storms anywhere in the viewing area today. Just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms moved through the metro between 5:30-7:30pm. The next chance of rain is Monday afternoon.

Thanks for checking in.

Jeremy

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my birthday is on may 26. how does that day look for my. thanks, jeremy

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Average high on May 26 is 78 degrees and the average low is 57. Outside of the averages, you may want to check back in about a month and a half.

Jeremy