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 March 30, 2007

Rain this morning then more tonight, but how much?

Good morning,
A crazy night in KC. KCI got 1.11 inches of rain. A record rainfall amount for March 30th. Most of that fell in an hour or two. This morning, several areas of rain over southern Kansas are tracking along I-35, headed for our viewing area. So, keep an umbrella or a raincoat handy until 10a.m. and in some places til noon.
This afternoon we should dry out for a couple hours but a thunderstorm complex should form over Oklahoma later today and head for K-C. The severe weather threat will remain almost non-existent today if we stay cloud covered, if we get some breaks in the overcast then the chance for a thunderstorm or two that produces some gusty winds or hail will go up to a whopping 15%, Oh Boy!
As for the heavy rainfall, will we get it? The models are slightly different. The NAM is slower with the upper low and brings it farther south and east. Look below at the GFS, it is slower, keeps the rain around longer into Saturday and takes the heaviest rain over eastern Kansas and keeps flooding rains out of metro K-C.
Click to enlarge

gfs_slp_024s_March30.gif

I think this scenario is very possible given the trend and the slow nature of the main upper low.
One of our in house computers on its overnight run, reduced rainfall amounts for Kansas City and nearby suburbs to a quarter inch for tonight while it upped Manhattan, Kansas to two inches of rain. So now two models are favoring a westward track of the heavy rain.
If you live out east toward Warrensburg or Sedalia or Marshall. I feel your frustration, hopefully it will change as we head deeper into Spring.
Have a great weekend,
Brett

Posted by at March 30, 2007 7:02 AM

Comments

******
Good Morning:

It sounds like this storm has a big bust written all over it. When I say that, I mean NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch, but the models are forecasting the heavy rain to go further east, so it sounds like they might have jumped the gun.

As far as evere weather, this is why I do not like the outlooks. When there is a 15% chance of Severe weather, I laugh. What is the point of even put out a forecast for that (from the SPC.) Yup, I think this forecast is going to be a bust as far as the heavy rain.

Later,
*******
Brian,
Thanks for the input. That's why I mentioned it in the blog, but there is still a chance it tracks right over KC.
Brett

Posted by: Brian at March 30, 2007 7:41 AM

yay! No Severe WX, now if I can just get 41.1 and 41.2, 38.1, and all of channels 50 back on air. I have a big roof attenna and don't know why I still ain't gettin a signal. The Analog is fuzzy to.

Posted by: Andrew at March 30, 2007 8:31 AM

1/2 inch overnight at #291 and 3rd Street in Lee's Summit. We had almost 1 1/4 last go round earlier in the week or weekend, can't recall!
Debbie

Posted by: Debbie at March 30, 2007 9:02 AM

***************
A bust? KCI set a record daily rainfall total and most of the metro has already had an inch or more. It's already not a bust. Every storm can't feature 5 inches of rain and widespread severe weather. It doesn't mean it's a bust.
---------------------
Rob,

I agree. And, we must be careful when saying a something is a bust. It can be just perception, but one of the major points I keep trying to make is that "there is a forecast that you can count on". Our forecast is much more accurate, rated #1 by Weatherate.com for 4 years in a row, than all of the others. We will back this up day after day, week after week, storm after storm, and year after year. Oh, you can get picky and we certainly miss a few forecasts. But, overall in the long run this is the point I would like to get across to the region. So many people just think all meteorologists are the same? Some forecasters are just much better than others.

I bring this up because this "bust" thing. Who busted a forecast. The NWS? Their flash flood watch may totally verify but if it doesn't it won't mean the KSHB forecast was a bust. And as you said it has already rained 1 to 2 inches in the area.

Gary

Posted by: Rob at March 30, 2007 10:12 AM

***************
Even though the sun is trying to peek out now , we had a moderate downpour in Lenexa this morning, on top of the heavier rain from last night. My yard has little puddles but my grass is a gorgeous green. So I don't think this has been a total bust.
Brian, I imagine if the SPC didn't issue that little percent there would be some little group that would complain that no one ever mentioned the slight chance. Look how many times Gary says slim to no chance of severe weather and 15 people will write the same question in one day asking if we are going to get severe storms.

Posted by: Jeri Correll at March 30, 2007 10:12 AM

***************
Good morning!! We recieved .50 inches in Pleasanton. It was a nice slow rain over many hours so it soaked into the ground good. Maybe we will get alittle more tonight. Have a wonderful weekend.
Monica
---------------------
Monica,

We are getting just enough rain!

Gary

Posted by: Monica at March 30, 2007 10:26 AM

************
so you do not think the rain will get to warrensburg? I am staying there this weekend.
also does harrisonville look like we could see some rain tonight?
--------------
Brent,

It doesn't look like much. This is one of the points I must make on tonights newscasts!

Gary

Posted by: Brent at March 30, 2007 10:45 AM

************
With all of these clouds and light rain showers that keep coming through, will that help to even further reduce the severe weather risk? Mark
---------------------
Mark,

Sometimes it doesn't make a difference, but with this set up the severe risk is very slight. Not to far away it is 81 degrees right now in northeastern Oklahoma. So, let's see if thunderstorms get generated to our south this evening and head this way.

Gary

Posted by: Mark at March 30, 2007 12:03 PM

************
Gary, even if it does get warm and storms fire up again in Oklahoma, will they hold together? Is our atmosphere unstable enough to generate some severe weather tonight or are we stablizing out now with the recent rain?

Thanks,
Todd
------------------------
Todd,

Our atmosphere will be unstable enough as there is tremendous lift approaching from the west and south associated with the storm aloft. But, the energy from this storm is just barely going to reach eastern Oklahoma and possibly into extreme western Missouri. How far east will the lift progress this evening. You will be able to tell by around 9 or 10 PM tonight. Watch the radar echoes closely as they move from south to north with very little eastward progression.

Gary

Posted by: Todd at March 30, 2007 12:49 PM

 
 

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