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 March 18, 2007

Stormy week? & Severe Weather insert

Good morning everyone,

I got the KC Star this morning, and the Severe Weather Insert is in there. It is a very small section that can easily be missed. I went through the paper 3 times myself before finding it. But, it is there.

The weather pattern this week will be dominated by a storm that has yet to form. We will likely say this another 50 times this year, "the storm hasn't formed yet". The amount of rain, thunderstorms, severe weather potential will depend on various factors, but the first one is how will the upper levels set up? Sometimes we talk about a storm before it forms and then it never does form. I am 100% convinced this storm will develop, but how? Look below:

500 1.gif
500 mb flow valid Sunday evening

The above map is the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above the surface, valid this evening. Notice how the storm that will likely form is NOT EVEN close to being anything yet. There is a strong wave approaching the west coast and this system will begin the carving out of a trough in the southwest. The next map, below, is valid Monday evening. We may have already had some rain and thunderstorms by Monday but the storm is still NOT THERE YET.

500 2.gif 500 mb flow valid Monday evening

Below, this next map shows that a trough has finally formed by Wednesday evening over the western United States. And, that first lead wave coming into California was NOT the wave that will end up diving into the southwestern storm. I hate it when meteorologists point to this as our next storm system, but then days later that wave is gone, but the storm is finally truely forming from something else. Will this developing trough move right across the nation? It most likely will NOT. Look at the last map in the sequence. The storm is finally spinning around over the southwestern United States and we will likely be fully under the influence of this system Wednesday through Sunday.

500 3.gif 500 mb flow valid Tuesday evening

500 4.gif 500 mb flow valid Thursday

Now, if you looked at all of the maps can you see how difficult this week is for forecasting the weather. There will likely be rain, thunderstorms, possibly some severe weather, and a lot of clouds to worry about. The evolution of the storm is very much in question. And, let's say one does form and drop into the west, will it then move out right over Kansas? When? These are the things we will be going over this week. If the latest GFS model is close to being right then we may see well over 2 inches of rain this week. Let's see how this evolves.

Have a great day! Let us know if you find the severe weather insert. Don't forget about the special "Extreme Weather" on Wednesday night at 7 PM.


Posted by at March 18, 2007 11:36 AM


Weather Team,
Great instert in the paper today. Informative and worth saving. Years back, the paper or someone published a map showing all the counties in our area. That would sure be nice for new folks. It is scary when you hear warnings for Johnson County, Mo and you don't know where that is. I had the map on the inside of my kitchen cabinet for years so I could refer to it until I learned where the counties are. Might be a good idea to do again!
Great job!

Posted by: Debbie at March 18, 2007 11:56 AM

I agree about the insert being in there. It took me two times before I found the insert. Looking through it it says that fours years in a row that you are the most acurate. Looking at your five day forcast you said it was to be a sunny day. To me it looks like a partly cloudy day.
Your insert would have been more valuable if you had the tracks of the tornadoes over the years. I did not see anything about the 2003 tornadoes?
I hope you have better luck with the rest of your 5 day forcast than today's.

That is a good idea. In next year's insert we will try to do a remembering the past few years. There have been a few big days. And, the sun came out in full force this afternoon. It is nice outside.


Posted by: Weber Koesema at March 18, 2007 12:16 PM

Gary, if there is going to be severe weather will it be tonight, or later in the week? Thanks, Robin



A couple of storms may contain small hail tonight...very likely below severe criteria. Otherwise just your basic thunderstorms.


Posted by: Robin at March 18, 2007 12:25 PM

Still haven't found that insert and I literally took the paper apart page by page! How big is this insert we're looking for? And what part of the paper was it in? Feel like I'm on a scavenger hunt!! Any help will be appreciated! Dea



The insert stands alone...look near the TV guide and ad/coupon sections.


Posted by: Dea Varner at March 18, 2007 1:28 PM

Well I missed any precip that we may have had Sat morning:( But there are many other chances this week so I'm not to down about it:) One thing about really wet weather patterns (such as a wet week) is I really don't get too excited about them until I actually SEE the first rain. A long time ago I remember seeing weeks filled with rain on the forecast only to have maybe one rain, especially when I used to watch another station YEARS ago.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (breezy) St. Joe!!



I think everyone will see rain at some point this week. There are basically rain chances are some point each day this week. We'll keep a close eye on severe weather chances too. The first round of storms tonight do not look severe...although we can't rule out some small hail.

Hopefully you see a good rain this week.


Posted by: Nick Rau at March 18, 2007 1:37 PM

Dear gary
I found the insert there is alot of helpful information.On like the 7th page i seen something about a spotter network being established i would like to be a part of that i can only spot from my home for right now.Will you be at the spotter seminar on tuesday night at the community college in kck.Keep up the good work.

Excellent! Just keep us updated from your home!


Posted by: Brent Hickman at March 18, 2007 1:53 PM

Hey Gary I found the insert! Looks cool! Have a great day! :)

Rachel K.

Posted by: Rachel K at March 18, 2007 2:42 PM

well, i still cant find it gary, lol
what section of the paper is in?



I think the section was in by the TV guide and some of the coupon/ad sections. It is a stand along insert. I'm sure it's hiding somewhere.


Posted by: Randy at March 18, 2007 2:52 PM

Hey check out this meteorologist. I wonder where he ranks in weatherrate?

Posted by: Derek at March 18, 2007 2:59 PM

I will have to review all the data on this one...LRC, SREF, and the others. Seems to have some buzz amongst chasers of something to watch this week. I will analyze more later to see what everyone is talking about....



Chasers may be excited because of the sheer number of storm chances that we have this week. We'll have to keep an eye on when the upper low decides if/when to move through the region.


Posted by: Scott at March 18, 2007 4:09 PM

Randy- I think you and I ended up with the same paper- never did find the insert- I think the people at the paper forgot to put it in ours!!



I would give it one last look. Otherwise I don't know what happened:(


Posted by: Dea Varner at March 18, 2007 5:24 PM

My brother is excited about the contest!1 Does the video have to be strictly at 30's or can it be a little more?

The tape can be a bit longer, but not much.


Posted by: andrew at March 18, 2007 5:28 PM

Hello Mr. Lezak, what time do you expect thunderstoms to begin forming?

Whats the threat of flooding and severe weather for this week?

We will have to go day by day, or at least two days at a time. We have a rather unique storm heading this way and we could see many rounds of thunderstorms. By the end of the week this could lead to flooding. The severe weather potential will be highest when the main storm comes out, but there isn't a big day of severe weather on the maps at this moment.


Posted by: Ben Tracy at March 18, 2007 6:16 PM

I'm still looking, but I cant find the insert. Ill let you know when i do.

Did you ever find it?


Posted by: Alden at March 18, 2007 6:28 PM

wow looks like a lot of rain. do you think there will be any rain tonight?
your severe weather paper was great!

Rain and thunderstorms are forming right now.


Posted by: Brent at March 18, 2007 8:15 PM

Hey Weather Team! Just wanted to let you know I had better luck than some of the others and found the insert first try. I thought it was a great insert, very informative. I also think you sold yourselves very well, and hopefully that will help persuade a few people to make the switch to NBC Action News. For next year you may think about posting your numbers versus the other stations' numbers...I can't remember the name of the association right now, but you all know what I'm talking about. When I saw the numbers posted in the blog a month or two back it really impressed me, and it would probably impress others. Keep up the great work!!

Good ideas, but posting the numbers seems to only cause some controversy, or at least when we say who those numbers are related to.

Anyway, how is the baby?


Posted by: Koyuki King at March 18, 2007 9:36 PM

A thunderstorm has just developed north of Topeka!! Better chance of rain tonight? I noticed the SPC has put us under a slight risk for severe weather. I think at most small hail, what do you think?


There is certainly a chance of some hail. A thunderstorm is growing in strenght right now.


Posted by: David, Lenexa at March 18, 2007 10:11 PM

Hello Mr. Lezak the storms seem to be drifting southward. How are the rain chances up north towards Leavenworth tonight?

Right now it is just one isolated thunderstorm.


Posted by: Ben Tracy at March 18, 2007 10:49 PM

That's what I figured about posting the numbers. But they're just the facts!! ;-) Sydney is getting bigger and prettier as the days go by!! She sleeps 7-10 hours per night, so we feel quite fortunate to be getting plenty of sleep. I'm sure I'll be extra thankful about that when I go back to work in a couple of weeks. I hope Jeremy is also having the same good luck with his 2 month old. Thank you for asking about Sydney!

And, Jeff Penner and his wife have a 10 month old. Jeff is finally getting a good nights sleep, but Jeremy has the challenge with the two kids.


Posted by: Koyuki King at March 18, 2007 10:57 PM


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