KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Weather pattern and El Nino influence

According to my weather pattern theory, the LRC, our weather pattern that we are currently cycling through set up between October 10th and November 10th. It continues today! It was supposed to be an "El Nino" winter. Which would have implied no long cold outbreaks and very wet conditions across the southern United States. These things didn't quite happen, but I believe El Nino did have different affects on this weather pattern that continues to this day. One amazing statistic out today shows Los Angeles with what will very likely be their driest winter EVER in their recorded history, with only 22% of average rainfall since last July (2.42" total). . This is a surprise to most meteorologists because El Nino is supposed to mean a wet winter in Southern California. Why didn't this happen? The LRC shows one very strong feature that continues today. There is a powerful "long term" long wave ridge near 145 west that has been one of the dominant features this winter and will continue to be into early summer. This has prevented almost every storm from making it to the Los Angeles area.

El Nino has faded and is now becoming a La Nina. El Nino and La Nina are temperature anamolies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is when the waters are warmer than normal and La Nina is the exact opposite when the waters are colder than normal. I believe that this influences the pattern but something much bigger is going on.

This winter our weather was likely influenced by El Nino. These last two big storm systems that had the winter portion of them track just north of us with major snow storms only missing Kansas City by a half of a state. If El Nino didn't fade, I believe these storm systems would have likely tracked a bit further south like earlier in the season. We may never know for sure, but I believe this may be the case.

We are currently in the December and January part of the pattern that was warm with a few storm systems. This is happening again. As we look ahead, if you believe in the LRC, then you should have confidence that the flow will become much more amplified again in the next few weeks. April and May will be stormier than this month. El Nino, La Nina, etc. won't matter as the pattern goes into it's more amplified phase in a few weeks. At least this is what I believe.

There is a series of weak disturbances, not very organized, that will pass through on Friday. We are in diffluent flow aloft, see the arrows. The flow comes across Nebraska westerly, and across western Kansas and Oklahoma as northwesterly. When the air diverges aloft you must have some rising motion to compensate for it. And, there is moisture available so clouds are the result. Will we have rain and thunderstorms? There will be some in the area and this is what we will be tracking. Then, the second series of waves may be a bit stronger. As this #2 area comes through the west coast and over the Rockies by Saturday and Sunday a little twist in our forecast could be the result. An upper low will likely form over Kansas or Oklahoma and then drop in over Texas before lifting out Monday. If this happens, there could be another chance of rain over the weekend that we do not have in the forecast yet. And, this would keep it cooler into Monday.

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Gary Team... Congrats on getting WeatherRate's #1 again! In your business where forecasting has it's highs and lows (pun intended!), your consistency is, as you might say, AMAZING!

I assume you've seen Aaron Barnhart's article in today's paper about the weather coverage during the bout of severe weather? I heard you on KMBZ and agree you did the right thing pre-empting programming for wall to wall coverage. I know it's a hard call to make sometimes and your competitor who indicated viewers could tune out due to over-coverage does have a point at times. Still, I believe your coverage, dedication and the decisions by your executive team were all the right thing to do.

Your LRC is standing up to scrutiny this winter, even with the El Nino! Does this portend a potent Spring and early Summer as also reported in today's paper?

Congratulations again! (Now, someone tell me why the website had to change??? It was fine the way it was!!)

Have a great day! - Mike T.
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Mike,

Our blog will likely look like it did before the change soon. If you change something it MUST be an upgrade or why do it at all. Hopefully we will all feel this is an upgrade soon.

I hadn't looked at the article until you brought it to my attention. I just read it. And, anyone who reads this comment can know what our policy is: We will be on if there is a tornado on the ground in our viewing area period! If there is no confirmation of a tornado on the ground then we will go to the more reasonable cutting in during national commercial breaks! As I said on the air the other night this only affects about 5 nights a year at the most. So, 360 days a year the viewers will get their regular programming. Think about that! So, on those few days when tornadoes are seriously threatening lives and property then we will be there for our region! While some stations, two of them, were only cutting in occasionally, we were on as an EF-4 tornado struck Linn county. Two stations were in regular programming while the damage was being caused by this destructive tornado. So, in the end I feel very comfortable with how we handled the severe weather situation last week.

And, for some reason, Aaron Barnhart has something against me. He just never calls me for any of his articles. I did not get a call and so they have no opinion from our television station. I am not sure what the problem is with Aaron.

Gary

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Gary,

Very, very informative, I truly enjoy your explainations and discussion on the LRC. It would appear based on December and the first part of January that we are heading into a fairly warmer and drier spell, at least until the first part of April based on the LRC. Thus when the colder and wetter portion comes back do you think we will have to worry about a late frost or possible freeze this year to the budding plants, fruit tree's and flowers.

Thanks
Jeff
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Jeff,

Not necessarily! As you move from March into April I can see a few set ups that we had in December and January that could bring us some wet storm systems. It is still quite active.

Gary

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Wow…what an article in the Star. This is so timely for me as I just came back from the workshop hearing different station philosophies in OKC. This article is a farce. I agree that there are pros and cons of weather reporting during severe events, and I know there is a revenue and ratings side to consider as well, but nothing in the article addresses a solution beyond vague references to crawlers or the such. I hope everyone realizes that anytime regular programming is interrupted, the clock starts ticking on lost revenue. Wall to wall coverage is a money loser. So, that being the case, there is also the interest of public safety. Find me a GM of a station that is ready to collect full revenue of affiliate programming over negative press of not covering a storm that has a high likelihood of human or property loss in their coverage area. You won’t find one.

This is the gray line I referred to in my previous blog entry. Coverage and means of coverage is a tricky proposition. For every positive feedback, you will have a negative. It’s a no win situation, both from perception, revenue and responsibility.

To rely on the EMS and sirens is a huge mistake. That is the most absurd comment I have read. So much as the NWS is responsible for alerting emergency responders, the local stations can contribute as much or more to public safety. The NWS does not always have the resources to provide the most necessary information for public safety. The NWS uses the local stations as a tool for their warnings as well. The reason for this is that the NWS folks have to rely on spotters, both from the stations as well as NWS spotters. Also, stations have the outreach and visibility the NWS does not have.

This article just shows the ignorance of parts of the media.

Ok..that said, I am looking forward to the April/May storms that should be wicked. Let’s see if Aaron changes his stance if his house is leveled and missed the warning because of “Lost�? or another primetime show.
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Scott,

Again, good points! My point of it only happening 5 days a year at the most, usually, makes the statement to the viewers that it is only when we seriously have a threat.

Gary

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Gary,

We had our differences on other posts but I'm with you 100% here. If you personally feel someone who gets your TV signal is in danger, I think you should be on the air. A quick question though, how far south does your viewing area go? Is the cut off about Linn County? I just want to get an understanding that you are warning for counties that pick up your signal next time. Maybe you should go over what your coverage area is sometime on a blog before we get deep into the severe weather season. Thanks

Ken
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Ken,

Linn county is really the southern edge. We do go down into Anderson county and Rich Hill Missouri is close to the southern end on the Missouri side.

Gary

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Hi Gary!! That tornado event was pretty exciting down here last week. I have to say you all did a great job keeping us informed down here....that is until the power went out (which was not your fault). Man that drove me crazy...not being able to watch you knowing a large tornado was on the ground and seemed to be heading right for us. It did go about 5 miles north of us but was close enough to get me alittle excited. Not to mention my 3 young girls under the age of 6. We had ALOT of time to prepare which was awesome!!!!!Congrat's on being number one...I have known for along time that you all were the best. Enjoy the success!!!
Monica
Pleasanton KS
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Monica,

We did mentiona Pleasanton a few times. That was a strong supercell thunderstorm. So, you did get to watch us before the power went out? Tell us what it was like.

Gary

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Thanks for the discussion of La Nina and El Nino as they pertain to the LRC! The only thing is I HOPE that the cutoff in precipitation that tried to develop during the last storm doesn't hang on through the rest of the "LRC" year, I know we haven't been getting missed by every storm but there still is that line that usually at least partially cuts us off, Spring should still be interesting though! Oh, and on the EF4 issue, yes it is VERY impressive, but I would be careful calling it the most powerful tornado in Kansas so early in the season EVER, it should be emphasised that it is the most powerful ever RECORDED for that early in the season. Some people will try to say that this is a strong piece of evidence for climate change, and there MAY be some truth to that, BUT for really how long have we had extensive coverage of tornadoes and their strengths, For example 100 years ago there could have EASILY have been an "EF5" near that region in Kansas and have gone totally unnoticed unless it made a direct hit on a farm or town. So while this is VERY UNUSUAL and is something to note, I wouldn't get carried away with calling it unprecedented.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (hazy) St. Joe!
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Nick,

It isn't unprecedented because it did happen on March 12th 1990 and that was one huge tornado in Heston, KS. I have some awesome video of that one. So, just 12 days later shows that it can and has happened at this time of the year. But, it is still extremely rare.

Gary

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Yes my parents, who my family and I were with, and my in-laws were all watching you. You and your weather team have a VERY large group of loyal viwers down here. It was great to watch you all on TV as the storm was approaching. You said it was heading our way and about that time the sirens went off. We had PLENTY of time to collect our three precious girls and our elderly neighbor and head over to my parents basement which is finished and nicer than ours. Anwyays when we got to my parents house my dad/mom had you on already and we "thought" it might head just north of us but ya just never know. Blue Mound and Mound City are not that far from us so we did not take any chances. I was able to take my girls to the bathroom, grab water/snacks and my parents even collected some of their valuables/papers just in case it did give us a direct hit. Well you were doing great coverage and then the power went out. Do not fear though...I would call my sisters in Overland Park on my cell phone and get the scoop from them, who were watching YOU for us...LOLOLOL!!!! I tried to call you but my cell phone was not working right when I tried to phone you. Well long story...but either way I was thrilled to see you all covering us...sometimes we are left out and do not always have a station to cover us well. The Pittsburg KS/Joplin MO stations do not cover us well so I always hope that you do. It was great work by you and the team. Everyone down here,...if they were watchig you, had plenty of time to get it all together and get to a safe place. You got a much longer answer than you expected huh?? LOL!!! Enjoy all the success you and the team get. I will have to get the KC Star from my dad and read the article that some of the other bloggers are talking about. Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton KS
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Monica,

Wow, thanks for sharing! I may contact you through email.

Gary

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Gary thanks for the great information. I believe in the LRC 110% I just wish we still got you all here in Topeka. But with the blog and information you provide and being able to watch your forecast on the computer I am happy. It makes sense to me that April and May would be stormier. How will this La Nina influence but not affect the weather over the next 4-6 months? If there isn't a La Nina or heaven forbid, An El Nino in place next fall when the new weather cycle kicks in it should be interesting as to what other sources rely on. Keep up the good work. Michael/Topeka/Berryton
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Mike,

Remember, El Nino and La Nina have a smaller influence than most meteorologists think. There is something much bigger going on.

Gary

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Why not have one channel for over the air, and one on each cable system that folks can turn to for weather info when it gets bad? Maybe like your 24/7 channel (1442 on TWC). The local stations can still do their crawl and inform folks who want to that they can turn to channel X for a more in-depth analysis of the current storm or bad weather. Maybe you all could agree on a designee to do the analyzing/reporting, or else shuttle between stations on a storm-by-storm basis. Under this system, everyone that wants to be is informed, and everyone that wants to continue watching the network broadcast can, unimpeded. Personally, I look forward to the day when I have more control over what I see, and what I don't, beyond simply turning off "channel whatever" and turning to cable or a DVD.
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Frank,

That day is coming where you have more control. But, our 24 hour weather channel can only be viewed by a small percentage of the audience right now. Within 5 years everyone will be able to get it and then we will be only on that channel. At least this is what I think will happen.

Gary

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I was very surprised/disappointed to hear you allude to "a potential sign of global warming? Who knows?" after discussing the tornado on last night's 10pm newscast.

Can trends be tied to climate change? Sure...there are some legitimate indications that climate change may alter the frequency and/or strength of some storms.

That said, I know that you know (like any meteorlogist worth his degree) that no *single weather event* can be tied to climate change (whether anthropogenic or not) and so to allude to that in such a passing (without any caveats) manner very much surprised me.
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Jake,

Yes, I agree, but I didn't say that it is Global Warming. It may or may not be a sign of it, but it is O.K. to mention it.

Gary

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Gary, thanks for the reply! Perhaps Aaron would do better TO give you a call now and then. Your forecasting skills, and those of the entire team, are deserving to be lead dog on this aspect of our media reporting.

I agree with Scott, and your policies, when severe weather threatens, you do what you have to do to serve the public - and that means in TV any community who can receive the signal.

Thanks! - Mike T.
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Mike,

Thanks again!

Gary

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The cut-off low that the computers are predicting to form next week looks alot like the cut-off lows that had formed this December, no surprise there, but it looks like it bottoms out alot further east than the ones in December, I was thinking we would get more of those cut-offs like December, but do you think if we get more of them that they will drop further west like in December or do you think that they will follow this ones example?
Thanks for your time!!
Nick in (cool) St. Joe!!!
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Nick,

Not this one, but we should look for that potential in a couple of weeks.

Gary

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I have an idea -- if you don't like the coverage 00 TURN OFF THE TV! Its not air that is being taken away -- it's TV. You can live without it.

I think mine has been on about 3 hours total this week. I can't believe people have so much time to sit around and watch TV!
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Teach,

Prime time programming is the biggest audience. When a favorite show is coming on there are so many viewers looking forward to it. Then, we have a tornado threat and we take it away from them. It is instant disgust. I can totally see how angry people get and this is why we will only do it when it is very serious. But, you are right, switch to another channel during these 5 nights a year that this happens.

Gary

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Weatherteam, looking at the new site, I noticed that the hourly forecasts don't match up with your forecast for the day. Like for today the highest temp on the hourly is 57, while you guys are either 60 or 61 depending on if you go by the Today's Forecast graphic or the 7 day graphic. Why don't they all agree? I am assuming the hourly is not your forecast but something from NWS or something. But why don't your own graphics match? Shouldn't Today's and the 7 day have the same high for today, I realize 1 degree is nothing, but still, looks bad that it doesn't agree. And why have an hourly forecast from someone else on your weather page?

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Kimberly,

All good points. We normally try to put the high on one of the hours in the 3 part forecast for the current day. Looks like this morning I had 60 and the forecast is 61. We'll try to put the high on the late day hour when possible.

The hour by hour forecasts on the web page are not controlled by us at the moment. We are still reviewing everything right now. Since the page is still new let's give it a little time to evolve. Thanks for pointing this out though.

Jeremy

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Here's something to ponder for those who complain about too much severe weather coverage: If your house gets leveled by a tornado, I'm sure missing your favorite TV show will be the last thing on your mind, but at least you'll be alive, right? I'm sorry, but my life is more important to me than watching some guy open a bunch of briefcases only to find out that he didn't make such a great deal. Gary, you guys do a great job and the 28th was no exception. Forget all the nay sayers. Because of you and your team, I'm sure you've saved many lives. That is something to be proud of. I just wish people put life first, but I guess that's the world we live in today.

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Justin,

Some good points! I do understand people being upset about missing their favorite show, but on Feb. 28 there was an EF-4 tornado on the ground!

I was in a store the other day and saw the home version of Deal or No Deal. Maybe this would be a good thing to keep on hand for those that love the show and don't want to miss it if severe weather interrupts programming. Although the game only comes with one briefcase and no banker:)

Jeremy

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You said there was EF-4 on the ground... F3, whatever. Was it on the ground for the entire 4 or 5 hours you guys took out programming?

Thanks,
Bob

(sorry, forgot the "it".)
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Bob,

Even though the EF 4 was not on the ground the whole time, the supercell that produced the tornado was alive for 4-5 hours and often producing tornadoes of varying strength. It was a dangerous storm, affecting many lives. It is our policy to stay in coverage if there is a storm that is alive that is frequently producing tornadoes.

Now, there are many cases when supercells have the potential to produce tornadoes and tornado warnings are issued. However, no tornadoes are reported. It is at these times we will make judgement calls on when to cut in.

Jeff