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I forget in which of the last few blogs, but someone indicated the curiosity how KC could have been excluded from a watch, but the surrounding areas be included. Another good example right now is TW #100. All almost surrounds Des Moines, but the city itself is not in the watch.

From my understanding, the NWS that covers the affect CWA can opt out of certain counties that the SPC recommends. The reasons for this in a metro area are varied. These include, not wanting to over alert the largest density of people if the NWS doesn't feel the potential is strong enough as well as other factors. Unfortuately, some of the reasons are tied to financial impacts of weather interrupts. Anyway...it seems to be more obvious this year than past years in having metro areas left out of watches. Dangerous presedent?

Jeremy..from a media perspective...thoughts?

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Scott,

As you know, the NWS & SPC will talk before a watch is issued. I think they do a good job and I have no problem with them opting out some areas. I think more times than not watches cover too much area rather than not enough. Since media do not get to have a say in the process my thoughts don't count for much.

However, I think there have been 3-4 tornado watches across the country today...and so far(7pm) one brief tornado touchdown in southwest WI. Sometimes watches have to be viewed differently based on the atmospheric conditions. For example if tornaodes would form today they would likely be weak and short-lived. They can pose a danger and cause damage...but the other question is does putting too many watches out and nothing happening keep people from taking a watch seriously? A fine line to balance.

Jeremy

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I agree that putting out too many watches can desensitize. But...what is the risk of the alterior? As much of the determining factors for severe weather come down to the basics..moisture, instability, sheer, and upper air support, I can see how many of these watches look to have the same ingredients. One day, in TX, OK, KS, and NE - 65 or so tornados. The next day and following day..similar criteria..nothing. Better warned for the potential and find nothing, then not be warned and be suprised in the most inappropriate manner.

This is just my opinion, obviously...many people in the midwest freakout anytime there is a watch. Unfortunately, too many people ready to run to the base me for a 40mph gust. Feeding that..too many media folks that well..you know..

All in all..can't please everyone, but I would rather have the watch when conditions are favorable, then not at all.

Great work guys!

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Scott,

Good points. It looks like the watch containing the most activity today has been the one over Wisconsin.

Jeremy

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Hi, Jeremy. As much as I love the rain and cloudy skies (call me crazy), I'm happy that we finally get a mostly clear sky tonight to see the stars.

That brings me to my question. Do you happen to know what that incredibly bright object is in the western sky tonight? I was wondering if it was just a planet or if it was that asteroid that was supposed to have whizzed by Earth last night. Thanks!

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Evan,

Some pockets of clouds may pass through tonight...but the good news is some much needed sunshine is on the way! If I had to guess I would say you are looking at Venus.

A great website to find out that information is sky & telescope. But if you ever have questions please feel free to ask.

Jeremy

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Jeremy
I thought it wasnt supposed to rain tonight. It is raining in Edgerton, MO and I saw lightning. No severe storms right?

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Robin,

I said there would be a few showers around overnight. Shouldn't be a surprise. No severe weather...just like this past weekend.

Jeremy

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wow, i got surprised when i got off work at midnight! we had some rain and than i saw a flash of lightnign, i thought there wasnt supposed to be anything comin through tonight. lol jeremy, or whoever, do you think this will just be hit and miss stuff or will it go on all night or part of the night or what? thanks.

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Randy,

There were just a few showers overnight...that's it. Sunday looks great. I talked about this small chance on Saturday.

Jeremy

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I have noticed a trend of "small chances" of showers, severe weather etc, that all seem to be coming true. Small chance would indicate not likely. If not likely, and keeps happening...is that really a small chance or even accurate? Small chance lately seems more like a hedge.

Semantics..I know..but what gives?

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Scott,

A small chance is just that...very few people will see it(severe weather for example). A tornado watch was issued the other night and there was 2 tornado warnings with no funnel clouds or tornado touchdowns reported. To me there was really no severe weather that night since nothing was spotted(outside of radar).

Now look at when we say something is very likely. For example we had I believe a rain chance of 80% going into Friday Night. Many if not all areas saw a few tenths to well over 1" of rain.

Since people rely on our accurate forecasts we don't play games or hedge bets. We tell you what we think.

Just look at the chance of a frost/freeze later this week. We were confident of this and have been talking about it for around 2 weeks(maybe even longer).

Hopefully this answers your question.

Jeremy

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All in all, with regards to Scott's comments, I'd say the watch system as is is fairly effective. What needs to stop is some stations (not just in this area but nationwide) hyping up the potential for severe weather. Looking at weather blogs here and elsewhere it seems a lot of people always get afraid when there is thunder that it will be severe. Everyone needs to accept that if things get dangerous, we will be informed. Watch NBC if you get worried about a storm, blog comments aren't answered quickly enough to provide you any warning if there is a danger.

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Shawn,

Thanks for the post. Usually if there is severe weather the blog comments are read to get storm reports...but often we are swamped and won't have a chance to respond right away. So if severe weather is approaching...I would read the blog and make sure to have your TV on NBC. That should keep you updated if severe weather is present.

Jeremy

Yes...actually this clears it up for me. [I think?] Your chances for activity are not specfic to if it will happen or not in a given area, but to how many people will be affected/or how widespread it is.

To the examples..tornado watch. Tornados formed on radar, but because they affected such a small area, that dictates your "small risk/chance" same with the rain example in reverse. Knowing this, I can better follow along now. But wait. Suppose a tornado touches down in the metro..but in just one neighborhood. Would that be considered slight/small? By definition..it should. But in reality..does it? ;-)

I had always thought and remembered hearing at the bloggers meeting that chances were determined on the likelihood of something happening based on similar atmospheric conditions. For example..for a slight chance, say 2 out of 10 times..when the conditions are as defined, x happens. Not that only slight amounts of the viewing area will be affected.

Is this wrong?? This is clearly a different definition than the one given prior...I think?

This is what makes it so hard to understand sometimes "who is most accurate" I wish all stations could define exactly how percentages [slight/might/may/will] are meant to be interpreted..and then standardize it for everyone. No dig on you guys..you do a great job...but sometimes its hard to understand meteorologists in general when the terms change or are interpreted differently.

Just one person's thoughts...

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hey guys, i dont know if you got my comment from last night cuz i dont see it in here at all so i just have a question to ask... how is april 6th through the 16th lookin if you guys can tell yet? thats when my fiance is comin to visit from california. anything whatsoever in the way of thunderstorms? cuz she is terrified of the big storms out here lol. thanks guys.
randy from chillicothe

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Randy,

The first part of her trip looks o.k., but keep in mind the closer we get to April 14-16...that is when the 'big storm' part of the LRC will repeat. What type of storm may occur or what impact will it have on KC? Still a little to early to tell. But I would expect a quiet start to the trip with a better chance of more active weather towards mid-April.

Jeremy