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Hello all, this entry is to notify you that the Action Weather blog has moved. To get to the new location, click here. The Action Weather Plus team are now posting here and are looking forward to you once again joining. So that everyone is aware, our new blogging community requires registration on our site. Very simple...see you there.

Posted by kshb-admin at 3:36 PM

"A great day"

Good morning everyone,

I had a great time in California. My mom had a great birthday on Friday. We celebrated Friday and Saturday and just had a great visit. I also had a great visit with seven of my nieces and nephews, yes one of my brothers has 7 kids. The second picture is of me with Mendy and Casreal.

My mom on her birthday last Friday (Click to enlarge)

Two of my nephews at my brothers house (Click to enlarge)

I was keeping in touch with the weather team and on my computer while the storm moved in Friday and Friday night. It was a tough storm to forecast but in the end I think we did a great job at picking out the areas that would see the snow and accumulations. Jeremy, Jeff, and Brett made an excellent forecast and then the snow started falling Friday evening. Yeah, it was gone by Saturday morning, but 2 to 5 inches fell from the south side of Kansas City down to Linn county, once again. Jeremy posted a few of the totals in yesterday's entry.

We get a break today with some spectacular weather. It is well deserved after weeks and months of wild weather. There have'nt been too many nice and calm days. A storm approaches the area but will likely track well south of us on Tuesday. A few showers or thunderstorms are not out of the question later tomorrow and we will talk about this chance on our newscasts and in the blog later today.

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (15)

Storm Recap & Spring Returns!

I first want to thank everyone who passed along rain and snow totals throughout the storm. Also a big thank you to those who took the time to email us some snow pictures. While this storm will not go down in the record books as a record breaking snow event for KC, it is a very memorable storm for those who saw the snow...and THUNDERSNOW!

Here are a few snow totals from around the area. Keep in mind accumulating snow is very rare for mid-April!

Williamsburg, KS (Franklin County) 5.0"
Paola, KS 2.0"
Olathe and southern Overland Park 2.0"
KCI Airport Trace

Jereme in Lee's Summit, MO sent several pictures. This one is about 2-2.5" of snow on his deck.

View image

Brent in Harrisonville passed along this picture of around 5" of snow measured in Harrisonville, MO.

View image

Where the snow did accumulate, it didn't last very long. Many spots saw the snow melt by midday as temps pushed into the 50s. In fact, today ended a streak of 10 consecutive days with a high temperature below 50 degrees at KCI! I put an email into the NWS to see if this has ever happended in April and am waiting to hear back. But I think it is safe to say it hasn't!

So far the average monthly(April) temperature in KC has been 41.2 degrees, or 10.4 degrees below average. This is MUCH colder than March was in KC. For the entire month of March the average monthly temperature was 52.6 degrees, or 8.8 degrees above average. Without seeing a number of days in the 80s to close the month, April will end up being colder than March!

The temperatures are set to moderate to average or just above for much of the upcoming week. Keep in mind the average is 65 in KC, so even though 60s and 70s are in the forecast, this is basically where we should be for mid-April. By April 30 the average high jumps to 70 degrees. So if you've been missing the 'average' Spring weather, the wait is over, Sunday will be sunny and around 64 degrees!

Oh by the way...if you follow the LRC...45 days from April 13-14 is Memorial Day weekend! Is anyone else excited?

Thanks again for all the snow and rain totals! Everyone on this blog is what makes this the best weather blog in the country!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 6:59 PM | Comments (11)

Crazy April Storm

This is truly a unique event. North of I-70 will hardly see any snow, while Olathe to Lee's Summit southward will see 2"+ and sticking to the roads & sidewalks. This is so similar to the November 30th storm it is ridiculous. Please send along your snow totals for us to pass along the everyone! Enjoy this snow...it's been a while since we've seen accumulation during April!

SNOWFALL FORECAST (Click to Enlarge):

Posted by at 10:51 PM | Comments (23)

Snow Update

If you have snow pictures from tonight please send them to: jnelson@nbcactionnews.com

Rain has changed to snow in many locations SOUTH of downtown KC. Anywhere from Overland Park to Lee's Summit south to Linn & Bates counties. Thundersnow is being reported in many locations where the rain has changed to snow. With this in mind, areas along the I-35 corridor from Ottawa to Olathe, and then east thru Overland Park to Lee's Summit will see the heaviest of the snow and the greatest accumulation. This will extend south to around Clinton and Butler, MO and west to around Mound City. Between these locations is where the narrow band of heavier snow will likely set up. Totals could be in the 3-5" category in a few spots where the thundersnow is occurring. But overall, many locations will still see 1-3" as we've been saying. As the previous blog mentioned the cut-off will be very sharp and areas north of KC(maybe even KCI) could see little or no snow accumulation. It is still dry in St. Joseph with temps in the 40s!

If you have snow totals or reports please continue to post them to the blog! We'll try to get all the comments posted.

Whatever snow does fall will melt quickly with temps in the mid 40s on Saturday and some sunshine by afternoon. Temps rebound to near 60 by Sunday!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:55 PM | Comments (32)

Update on Crazy April Storm

Not only is this storm producing snow in April, but the accumulation forecast is odd due to the surface temperature layout. The track of the storm & atmosphere would suggest a widespread are of snow across eastern Kansas & western Missouri. However, the surface temperatures are playing havoc with our convential wisdom.

At 6 PM Emporia was 34° with 3/4 miles visibility in snow. Olathe was 36° with rain/snow mix. KCI was 42°, St. Joseph was 47°.

So, it is beginning to look like the snow in Emporia is the start of the event. We now believe that the rain will change to snow from southwest to northeast across up I-35. From KCI northward it will likely be too warm tonight, so either light rain or light rain mixed with snow is expected there. The best chances of accumulation will be from Emporia to KCI to Liberty to Marshall, MO south & east. So, snow south & rain north. That is very weird for any time of year. How much snow will stick is also a tough forecast as lows tonight will be 32-34° & current pavement temperatures are around 40°.

We think that 1-2", maybe 3" in spots are possible on grassy surfaces in the above mentioned areas. If it is going to stick to the roads, then it will have to some down hard for a long period of time to cool the pavement. The chance of this is low.

This is a complex storm & it is still not set in stone, but it is becoming clearer.

Oh by the way, if the southside of KC gets snow & KCI gets missed, doesn't that sound a lot like the November 30th storm? The LRC is still rolling along!

Posted by at 6:43 PM | Comments (12)

Overnight Data

Good morning weather world,
The overnight data continued the trend of last night's run. The rain most likely changes to snow late tonight and early tomorrow morning. On Wednesday, I blogged that snow could accumulate because it was coming overnight, so even if critical thickness was in question the timing would help us out.
Below, I've included both the GFS and the NAM which both now bring the 540 thickness line to south of Kansas City.
Click to Enlarge GFS


Click to Enlarge NAM


As Jeff and Jeremy said last night, 1 to 3 inches isn't out of the question, mainly on the grass. But if you want to see snow you may have to wake up early...there is a chance the snow turns back to rain as the precipitation comes to an end. That, along with temperatures rising into the 40s would melt the snow during the early morning and create a lot of fog in the afternoon.

Have a great weekend,
Brett

Posted by at 7:31 AM | Comments (43)

New Data is in...It Looks Like Snow!

We have just analyzed the new NAM & GFS. The storm is taking a perfect track for us to see snow, the atmosphere is cold enough to support snow. There are 2 factors that we have been monitoring that could limit snowfall.

1. How cold will surface temperatures get tomorrow night as the atmosphere gets cold enough to support snow? If it drops to 35-37° tomorrow night we will see a rain/snow mix with no accumulation. If it drops to 32-34° then the rain could change to wet snow between 8 PM & 11 PM Friday night, ending 8-10 am Saturday. We lean in the colder direction. Accumulations right now look like 1-3" on grassy surfaces with the roads likely wet. However, since this is happening at night the chance of the roads getting a slick slush on them is higher & we must watch this closely.

2. The storm system is weakening as it moves east-northeast towards us. However, all of the latest data suggests the storm will hold together long enough to keep precipitation going all Friday night into early Saturday.

Below are the surface features for 7 AM Saturday & the total liquid precipitation (around .20", see key) from 12 AM-7 AM Saturday. This should be all snow as the 540 thickness (rain-snow line) is 150 miles southeast of Kansas City.

Surface Map (7 AM Saturday):

Key for Liquid Equivalent Precipitation:

Oh by the way it looks like we could see widespread 1" rains before the changeover. So total liquid from this storm could be 1-1.30"!

One more thing. Here are the daily snowfall records for KC on Friday and Saturday. We likely stand a better chance of breaking the Saturday record if any records fall with this storm.

April 13: 2.0" 1933
April 14: 1.6" 1996

We'll keep everyone posted on our thoughts as the storm nears!

Posted by at 5:08 PM | Comments (7)

Quick Morning Update

Good morning,
I know lots of us have an insatiable appetite for data on this next storm, so here is a look at the overnight data. Below are graphics from the midnight model run. This first one shows the precipitation and thickness between the surface and about 18-thousand feet. It is valid for Saturday morning at 6 a.m. The thickness between 534 and 540 would support at least a rain/snow mix if not an all out changeover but it will be tough.
Click to enlarge

Now, below are the 850 temps for that same time Saturday morning. They are around 25 degrees fahrenheit. Cold enough for snow. If you look back at the precip amounts, it is equivalent to between a tenth and a quarter inch liquid.
Click to enlarge

So one could conclude that 1 to 2 inches of snow could accumulate, right? Maybe, maybe not, there are lots of variables at play here. Temperatures at the surface are expected to drop to around 32 degrees but what if that's only for an hour, what if its for 6 hours? What if the moisture exits to the east before the colder air gets here. Its been a weird April so something weird like a changeover to a slushy snow between 3 am and 6 am would not surprise me with the rain/snow mix changing back to rain Saturdaymorning. We won't know how this plays out exactly likely until its happening.

Anyhoo, so much for a quick update,

Brett

Posted by at 6:34 AM | Comments (19)

The "Storm"

In the forecast center we call the next storm, "The Storm". We do this because it is amazing that this storm system is acting just like the November 30th & January 14th storms. Those previous 2 storms were the biggest of the season and according to the LRC "The Storm" is right on schedule. The new NAM is trending more & more towards accumulating snow here on Friday night. It is still way too early to go for amounts as intensity of snow & when it changes over are big unknowns at this time.

If you remember, during the November 30th storm it snowed from I-70 southward. This next storm is trying to head in that direction, although it may be from St. Joseph southward this time.

It really is astonshing how something on Novmeber 30th can repeat in a very similar fashion on April 14th!

Below is the surface map for midnight Friday night. The rain snow line (540 thickness) is nearby as precipitation is falling. Sometimes the rain changes to snow before the 540 thickness gets here & sometimes it waits until just after. We feel there is potential of the former as it will below freezing through much of the atmosphere before midnight. But this is still a tough question to answer.

Posted by at 4:14 PM | Comments (14)

NAM This Morning, Even Closer to Snow!

Good morning,
This is great! Today's storm will spin away to our northeast and right on its heels a second, stronger storm that drops into the slot to be fired out at us Friday into Saturday. It really appears the severe weather threat will be way south of here. But if the storm tracks farther south, as Gary talked about in last night's blog, it could mean snow. A lot of things have to come together perfectly for KC to be in the snow zone. One of those is critical thickness. The 540 line is south of KC Saturday morning at 6am. You could argue that in mid-April it takes a thickness of 534 for snow and I would say yes if this was happening during daylight hours where the lower levels of the atmosphere would most likely be warmer. But, the thickenss drops below 540 overnight and the surface temperature on the NAM which you can see below drops to 32 degrees for about 6 hours, from 3am to 9am. The third element needed is moisture and there is still a lot left Saturday morning.
Click to Enlarge


So how much snow could fall? It is still too early to tell and I really feel the thin band of heavy snow could be anywhere from here to Sioux City, Iowa. If it does snow, it would likely occur between 3am and 9 am. The morning data could be completely different and all this could go "poof" but at least for now we can dream, can't we?

Have a great day,
Brett

Posted by at 6:33 AM | Comments (17)

"NAM tonight is close to snow"

Amazingly tonight the storm as predicted by the LRC months ago is right on schedule. This is a big storm, very similar to the November snowstorm, directly related to the January sleet storm, and the end of February storm. It is just amazing! The NAM tonight has come out with an even further south solution. The severe weather threat will likely be well south of our region but the snow threat is rather close. This is going to be Friday the 13th and April for crying out loud. April 13th and 14th. It will be tough, very tough for it to be cold enough, however it fits with the pattern like a glove. Remember in November when the snowstorm split the city with 20 inches southeast over Linn county and nothing at KCI? If you look at the NAM tonight this is EXACTLY what it is predicting. Will it be cold enough? And, will it be this track exactly? It will probably vary a bit, but one thing for sure it is a big storm.

More in the coming days. I am taking a few days off to visit my mom on her birthday Friday. Please stay with NBC Action News for the most accurate forecast. Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff will be tracking this storm very closely, and you know I will be adding my input even if I am in California to celebrate with my mom.

Gary

Posted by at 9:51 PM | Comments (8)

"Amazing stats"

Good late Tuesday morning bloggers,

I will start today with an amazing stat that will be fun to track as we go through this cold April. I am not sure if April has ever ended up colder than March of the same year? I will do some more searching for this stat. But, it is happening now and big time so far. In March we had high temperatures under 50 degrees only 4 days. We have already had 6 in April and today could be #7. Look below at the comparison of the first 9 days of April to that of all of March:

March 2007: Average High: 63.5, Average Low: 41.6

April 1-9th: Average High: 53.0, Average Low: 29.2

Today's weather is being dominated by a developing surface and upper level storm. These features are just forming and so it is making the forecast challenging. The heavy rain has formed over northern Kansas and it is heading towards northern Missouri. The main disturbance will be approaching this evening and I expect the rain to become more wide spread in the next few hours.

Then, we concentrate on the next storm system on Friday. The models are coming out this morning and a continued trend towards the surface low being a bit further south and west. This would keep us in the colder air longer and limit the severe weather threat from Friday's storm. The main threat could come in Friday night as the storm lifts out into the plains. Look at where the surface low is forecast to be on the NAM, with the GFS along the Oklahoma border as well. The serious severe weather threat will have to be near and south of the surface low with so much cool air in place over our region. Kansas City would have a strong easterly wind in this scenario and a very good chance of rain with embedded thunderstorms. A few of these could produce hail, but any tornado threat is much more likely down to our south. This has three more days to change and look differently, but the trend is for Oklahoma into extreme southern Kansas and southern Missouri to have the main threat of severe thunderstorms.

NAM Friday evening 7 PM

After this end of the week storm passes by there is a possibility of some snow on Saturday morning. And, before the storm and after the storm we see two more freezes. Thursday morning could easily drop to below 32 degrees. And, Saturday or Sunday morning may be well into the 20s. And, keep in mind I am still expecting another strong cold surge later in this month.

Have a great day. We will try to update the blog later today. And, we may be debuting our new blog very soon, possibly tonight. I think you will have to register to blog, but it would then be easier from then on for you to participate in the NBC Action Weather Blog. I hope it looks great. We should all see very soon. Maybe this evening.

Gary

Posted by at 10:50 AM | Comments (12)

"Frozen J.C. Nichols fountain and update"

Good afternoon everyone,

Jeremy Nelson went out to the J.C. Nichols fountain on the Plaza yesterday and took this picture. I cropped it and cut it out to show the two features. Look below:

Click to enlarge

And, look below. The poor tulips are drooping. The trees around Kansas City have damage. Hopefully our beautiful spring will return sometime soon.

A strong storm will be approaching our region at the end of this week. How this storm affects us will be the focal point of our weathercasts beginning around Wednesday. Below you can see the GFS forecast for Friday evening. The surface low is over central Missouri, but where will it end up tracking? And, yes that is a snowstorm across areas just north of us. The severe weather potential will be dependent on where this surface low tracks? Right now it is just way to early to tell. In the mean time a series of waves moving into the plains on Tuesday into Wednesday will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Some hail is possible if the thunderstorms materialize Tuesday into Wednesday.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 2:49 PM | Comments (12)

"The April Weather Pattern"

Good Monday morning everyone,

An area of snow on Live ESP is moving across early this morning. Some snow has been reported, but most of it is aloft.

A storm system approaches our area. It is much more disorganized than it looked Friday, or even yesterday. It is going to be a challenging forecast for the first half of this week. We will be having extensive details on our newscasts through Tuesday on these developments, so please watch NBC Action News for the most accurate forecast. And, there is a very strong storm likely by the end of the week, that will move out of the Rockies and into the plains.

I know if you are a regular blogger and read this often then you knew we would have this cold April, and the middle of the month storm. I am about to write an article about my theory, the LRC, and I am planning on making a presentation at the NWA meeting in Reno this fall. But, I have a lot of work to do before I am ready. I really need a few weeks off to research this, but as you know I can’t do that. This weather pattern has been fascinating, but every year is fascinating in its own way. We thought, back in October and November, that this would be a good year for you, the weather enthusiast. Oh, there have been frustrations this past winter. This pattern could have easily have produced 40 inches of snow this season. A few of the big storm systems just missed us to the north at the end of the winter. But, in the end it was still entertaining and fun and this season's pattern will likely be the focal point of my latest presentation on the LRC.

The cold part of the pattern has returned. We are in a 45 day cycle this year, but I also believe there is a cold phase and warmer phase of the pattern. So, every other cycle has been cold and the others warmer. October, when the pattern set up, had a long cold spell. The same pattern returned in January, 90 days later (45 times 2), and again now, 90 days later again. Watch out in July, 90 days from now when everyone else will be saying summer is here for good. Remember, we believe this pattern continues, but in a weakened state during the summer before falling apart late in July or August. Forecsting summer weather is not something I have even spent much time at, but because of a few of the bloggers out there we have been using the LRC and it has been phenomenal in our forecasting results.

As you see in Jeremy’s blog entry yesterday, this has been the longest April cold stretch below 30 degrees for lows in Kansas City history. Wow! That is an amazing record. And, today’s low of 20 tied the Easter record for coldest Easter morning since 1910. The other 20 degree mornings occurred when Easter Sunday was on a date earlier than today. We aren’t done yet. The coldest part of the pattern is right on schedule and we will likely see more freezes during the second half of April. How strong will the cold fronts be? Well, it is getting later and later, but just looking back in late January into February at the weather pattern and we can see that some of these cold fronts will be quite strong. The LRC continues and it will continue to help us tremendously in our long and short term forecasts. And, the “big storm� part of the pattern is also right on schedule. The next two weeks appear favorable for the middle part of the nation to be majorly affected by a series of storm systems. Snow is still not out of the question either, however as every day goes by the potential will be less and less. Even though a late snow is possible, these storm systems will at the very least bring us the significant rain that seemed to miss us most of last year. Hopefully the flowers and trees will recover after this killing freeze did rather obvious damage.

Have a great start to the week. New data is rolling in and we will likely be updating the forecast as Tuesday into Wednesday appears tricky before the bigger end of the week storm approaches.

Gary

Posted by at 6:16 PM | Comments (19)

Record April Cold

Numerous records have fallen across the eastern two thirds of the U.S. with this recent cold snap. There was even some snow in Dallas, TX today! Here is an update on the records that have been broken or will be in Kansas City.

The low of 18 degrees this morning at KCI set a new record for April 7 shattering the old record of 24 degrees set in 1934. The low of 18 degrees today was also the coldest temperature ever recorded this late in the season! It was also only the 5th time ever that the temperature has dropped into the teens during April in KC.

The forecast of 16 degrees tonight would also break the record for April 8 which is 24 degrees set in 1914. The all-time record low temperature for the entire month of April is 12 degrees set in 1936.

From April 4 through today the low temperature has been below 30 degrees. This is the longest stretch of consecutive days with a low temperature below 30 degrees ever during the month of April in KC.

If anyone gets a chance...check out the J.C. Nichols fountain on the Plaza. It has been partially ice covered for much of today and will likely be again on Easter Sunday. Our skycam has been showing this all afternoon. Needless to say, I wish I had a nickel for every picture that has been taken next to it today! If you can't make it down there...we'll show some video on today's newscasts and also on Weather Plus!

Have an enjoyable Easter! We'll discuss the early week storm on Sunday. Here's a hint though...I'm not very excited about our snow chances Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 4:04 PM | Comments (14)

"Could it snow next week?"

Good Friday afternoon everyone,

The flow is still blocked up and we have a record breaking cold air mass settling in. As we move into next week it is beginning to look like a perfect combination could set up to bring a winter storm to the region. It would almost have to be perfect for it to happen but snow is not out of the question on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Please understand that a slightly different set up and it could look very different but as it gets closer to Monday we will let you know if it keeps trending in this direction. Look below at the GFS forecast for Tuesday night.

Surface map GFS forecast valid 1 AM Wednesday

How does this happen? We still have one last strong cold surge that comes in Saturday and Sunday. Another disturbance rotates around the Great Lakes upper low on Monday. At the same time a strong system has blasted into the west coast on Monday morning. It wants to, very badly, go north of us and it still may. But, because of the blocking through the Great Lakes lasting just long enough, the west coast energy is forced to dive southeast into the plains states and a winter storm is born. Will it play out this way? And if you ask me how much snow could fall we will not be able to answer since this may just be fantasy. At the same time it is only 4 days away. So, let's see how it trends.

*****update*****
The 18z GFS already has completely backed off on the snowstorm potential. The only way it would happen is if everything lined up perfectly. So, the odds are low on the snow! We should know by around Sunday or Monday if it is really lining up.

Have a great Easter weekend. Bundle up as we set a couple of record lows. This is all part of the same pattern that continues to cycle. And, remember we are still anticipating most of April to have the potential for more freezes.

Gary

Posted by at 11:22 AM | Comments (25)

A Little Snow!

A few pockets of light snow and flurries are moving across the region this morning. I don't expect any accumulation, but if KCI sees even flurries, this will be the first time that it has EVER snowed on April 6 in Kansas City. Winter lovers enjoy...and make sure to look outside quick...this won't last long! Check out LIVE ESP & NBC Action News all morning long for updates!

We'll have another blog update later this morning.

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 5:24 AM | Comments (8)

"Kansas Snowstorm"

Good afternoon,

Read the previous entry for the thoughts after today. But, amazingly right now Salina, KS is in a significant snowstorm. There is heavy snow and 25 to 28 degree air in place. It is likely sticking to everything. It may inch into the Emporia area. So, two weeks ago Columbia, MO had 2 inches of snow and today Salina. For us snow lovers this is frustrating. Below, you can see the radar image of all of the snow JUST west of us. When it makes it out into central Kansas then it is the type of system that could have easily have affected us. We really are JUST missing this snowstorm.

Gary

Posted by at 12:46 PM | Comments (17)

"Cold April weather"

Good morning,

We are having another hard freeze this morning. If the dandelions haven't frozen yet they will by Sunday. The weather pattern has slipped into the cold phase. We will have ups and downs through the end of April. This weather pattern will highly likely provide another cold surge later this month with a late freeze possible again two to three weeks from now. Between now and then the pattern will become wavy and active with a few storm systems bringing chances for rain and thunderstorms. Snow can not be ruled out yet either. Just look at today where snow is likely over parts of central Kansas. There is even a chance of a few snowflakes coming down near us tonight as another cold surge approaches.

The map below shows the flow by Friday morning. The flow continues to come straight out of Canada aloft and at the surface. There is a big upper low over the Great Lakes states and combined with the big ridge aloft inland over the west into western Canada is providing an environment for the surface high to strengthen and bring one more very cold surge our way. Temperatures in the teens are likely in the area by Saturday or Sunday morning.

Click to enlarge (GFS 500 mb valid Friday morning)

The weather pattern is about to become rather wild over the next week as the big ridge and Great Lakes low features break down. A strong system will blast into the ridge, weaken, but create an interesting set up for Monday night into Wednesday of next week. And, then after this the jet stream strengthens further and a series of strong storm sytstems will be affecting the United States soon. Below, you can see the upper level flow forecast for Easter Sunday. The ridge is being pushed inland by some strong Pacific energy.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow forecast for Easter Sunday)

Look below at what is forecast, by the GFS, to set up for Monday and Tuesday. I drew in a front, which is forecast to be near our area on Monday night. The red and blue alternating lines indicate a stationary front. A stationary front is usually moving very slowly or waving back and forth over a region. Sometimes it can act like a warm front and other times it can act like a cold front. This is being created by one storm moving away as another one approaches and the balance is keeping the front in the same region. This front could have quite a temperature contrast on it (this temperature contrast is what we call a baroclinic zone). As the energy comes across the Rockies an interesting scenario develops. But, where will this front be? It is a few days away so it will look a bit different each day as it approaches. Heavy thunderstorms with hail potential could be generated along and near that frontal zone.

Surface map valid Monday night, April 9th (Click map to enlarge)

After this early to mid week set up the blocking pattern is gone and the Pacific energy will be providing some rather strong upper level storm systems moving across the nation. We will get different looks at this every day, but next week will not be dry.

A lot of moisture will move across the region tonight and snowflakes can not be ruled out. If we see any chance I will blog about this later today. Let us know what your thoughts are today, about the weather of course!

Gary

Posted by at 6:35 AM | Comments (12)

Coldest April Morning Since 2003!

Wow! Temperatures really dropped overnight despite a northwest wind of 10-20mph! That goes to show just how cold this air mass really is. To get temps in the 20s this time of year WITH a strong wind overnight is pretty remarkable.

The low temperature so far this morning at KCI is 25 degrees. This is the coldest April morning since it was 24 degrees on April 9, 2003...4 years ago! More cold is on the way with overnight lows in the 20s likely again by Thursday morning. Freeze Warnings are in place for almost the entire viewing area. This significant April cold snap will continue into this upcoming weekend when record lows are possible. I know our bloggers were well aware of the possibility of a frost/freeze weeks ago...hopefully you shared this with all your friends and family.

I know Gary will discuss this in more detail in the upcoming week. But the GFS finally realized that the 'big storm' part of the LRC is coming up around April 14. The final solution with timing and placement with the storm will likely change some...but the LRC just keeps on rockin'! Here is the 240 hour GFS(6Z) just for fun.

Have a great day!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:19 AM | Comments (24)

"Freezing temperatures are hours away"

Here is a message from Hamons Custom Landscaping. With temperatures dropping to well below freezing the next few nights, Friday morning possibly the exception, I thought this could prepare you. Read other comments for more advice from our bloggers:

I have been reading your blog with much interest lately. I own and operate a landscaping company here in the KC area and I wanted to chime in on the freeze damage.

I would be happy to answer any other questions people had.

Posted by at 9:41 PM | Comments (10)

"A lot to talk about today"

Good afternoon everyone,

We are about to have a near record or record breaking April cold spell. It will last at least 5 days and there is even a chance of snow on Thursday. I know our regular bloggers were very well prepared and expecting this cold wave to hit in April. And, it will likely be just one of two cold waves that will affect us this month. This is all part of the overall pattern that just continues to cycle. Yes, this is the same pattern that set up last October and early November. This year it is around a 45 day cycle, but there are different phases to it with every other cycle being warm and the others being cold. We are going into the colder phase that should last a while. There will be warm ups in between but overall April will be near or below average compared to the 3rd warmest March ever in Kansas City recorded history.

Before I go on, let's look back at this morning. Last night I went for the potential of a line of thunderstorms in the morning. Sometimes just a chance or a slight chance can become a significant event and this is what happened this morning, but at the same time it isn't a surprise. I said that we may get 10 to 30 minutes of rain and thunderstorms, but I was wrong, as a waitress at First Watch told me this morning. We had 2 hours of rain and thunderstorms. Oh well.

Now let's look ahead. Look below at the NAM precipitation type and temperature forecast for Thursday. The blue is snow and the green is rain. We are IN THE BLUE. But, don't get too excited yet. The GFS does something similar but we are really on the edge. I think by tonight we should be able to tell if there is really a chance of snow. It is not too rare to see a snowflake in April, but it is rather rare to have accumulation.

Above map shows precipitation type forecast for Thursday at 7 PM

Above map shows temperatures for Thursday evening (in the 30s)

Now look below at the overall weather pattern for Sunday. The flow is coming straight out of the north. A similar upper level pattern, unique to this season, has set up many times since October, looking just like this. The second map shows the surface high right over us on Sunday morning. If this is the case then we will likely have a record low and a killing freeze. The average date for the last freeze is April 10th. So, it is not unusual to have a freeze now, but it is rare to have a killing freeze this late. And, remember I expect another chance of a freeze later in the month.

Click to enlarge (GFS 500mb forecast valid Sunday morning)

Click to enlarge (GFS Sfc forecast valid Sunday morning)

So, overall we are at the beginning of what will be at least a 5 day cold wave. Temperatures will likely drop well below freezing on a few of the nights. There could be some snow. And, the pattern just continues to cycle away. We will look further down the road soon. A little hint.....it will warm up a bit next week sometime, but a stormier part of the pattern is likely with eventually another strong cold front within two weeks. Our active pattern continues and we are actually above average on rainfall at this moment.

How about those Royals!!!!!!! They are still undefeated into Wednesday! The strong cold front has just passed through the Kansas City metro area. Temperatures are dropping. Weather is exciting, but I don't want a killing freeze. One more thing......please don't ask me how much snow will fall when we are still trying to figure out if it will snow at all at this moment. Our weather team is ready for any and all comments and ideas. And, our web page will gradually improve, and most importantly this blog should get the old look and feel back very soon.

Gary

Posted by at 11:33 AM | Comments (24)

"Morning T-Storms"

Good morning,

Thunderstorms raged in from the northwest this morning. The cold front still approaches. There will be a few more thunderstorms then the winds will pick up from the northwest and temperatures will be much colder this afternoon.

Click to enlarge (630 AM radar)

Gary

Posted by at 6:34 AM | Comments (5)

"Strong cold front approaches"

Good morning everyone,

A strong cold front approaches the area this morning. A low pressure area will form on the cold front and it is moderately strong with a low pressure center around 1001 mb (29.56"). This is around midnight tonight. There is a slight risk of severe weather, but we have somewhat of a cap today. If it were to break then thunderstorms could be quite strong. I don't think it will break today, but as the system goes by early on Tuesday morning a few thunderstorms could form briefly before the threat rapidly shifts eastware into Illinois.

Click to enlarge (Surface map valid at 1 AM tonight)

The front will move through early Tuesday morning and then a cold April will be underway. There is a very good chance of a few freezes this month, as we had anticipated months ago with this weather pattern that continues to cycle. The GFS has even had a little bit of snow on Thursday night the past two runs, but confidence is low on this. So, you don't have to ask how much until we get to Wednesday and it still looks like there is a chance. It is rare for it to snow after April 1st, but it happens every few years.

Have a great day! Get the plants and flowers prepared as they are about to be attacked by some very cold temperatures for this time of the year.

Gary

Posted by at 9:34 AM | Comments (30)

Changes Ahead!

I hope everyone had an enjoyable weekend! If you are heading out to the 'K' on Monday for the Royals home opener the weather looks almost June-like! Highs should be in the low 80s with nearly 100% sunshine! A couple of things to remember before leaving home to tailgate...1) sunscreen 2) it will be windy so leave the paper plates at home if possible. Other than that have a burger and beverage for me! My first trip to the 'K' is coming up on April 21 when the Royals take on the Twins(yeah, I'm a Twins fan).

I was discussing the weather for opening day with Jack Harry and he was telling me about past openers that had terrible weather with cold temps, lots of wind, and even some snowflakes!

Alright, after enjoying highs in the low 80s on Monday some big changes are on the way. A cold front will pass through the region sometime Tuesday morning, the exact timing of the front will determine if our highs will remain the 60s, or if the front slows down we may sneak into the low 70s. Below is the surface map from the 18Z GFS for 18Z on Tuesday. The front is through the area, and as it moves through a few isolated showers are possible.

View image

Behind the front the remainder of the week will be dominated by below average high and low temperatures and also the chance of a frost or freeze on several mornings. If skies are clear and winds are on the light side I could see temps dropping to around 27 or 28 degrees one night! While these would not be record lows, this may spell trouble for those of you that got a jump start on your gardening. This is something we will keep a very close eye on all week! Below is the GFS temperature forecast map for Thursday morning. This has temps on either side of 30 degrees for the viewing area.

View image

Have a great week and if you have some memorable stories from opening day at the 'K' feel free to share them!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 7:10 PM | Comments (8)