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Welcome back, I am sure you enjoyed your visit with family, but I know you too probably missed the action in the weather dept. I just wanted to say that your entire dept. does a great job. I was thinking as I watched Jeremy last night that you guys have it nailed down. The consistency that each of you have and the way the message gets out, is right on target. Each one of you make that team, and you guys are focused. My appreciation to you all!
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Keith,

Thank you so much! Our consistency in our forecasts is very important. Our entire weather team is on the same page when it comes to our forecasts. We truly make team decisions when we make our forecasts.

Gary

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Look's like Sunday according to the SPC is going to be busy here. Ah Oh It's now our turn for Tornados again.
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Andrew,

Be careful when going to the SPC site. One of the best uses of our blog is to stay up to date on realistic chances of severe weather, snow, and nice weather! Forecasting something as specific as severe weather is likely going to be wrong if you try to do it six days away. So far this season there have been a few severe weather set ups forecasted a week away and then it doesn't even come close to happening.

The latest trends on the models for Sunday is for there to be no chance at all. So, let's don't jump the gun this early.

Gary

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Hey Gary-
Welcome back and I'm glad you had fun with your family. Are you worried about this weekend? I went to noaa.gov and looked at the extended outlook and got a little worried because we have several soccer games this weekend. We seem to be in the bullseye both Day 6 and Day 7.
Thanks
Phillip
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Phillip,

As I just said to Andrew, let's not worry too much about this right now. The latest data takes most of the energy to our northwest. But, it is something we will be tracking this week.

Gary

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Weather Team-

Welcome back Gary and hello to the rest of the team. I have a question about the nor'easter that is happening right now. If that energy was here, what kind of weather would we have? I saw somewhere in New Hampshire had sustained winds at 100 mph and wind gust up to 140 mph! Wow!

Have a wonderful day!
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Stephanie,

We have had storm systems about this strong affect us this season. But, along the eastern seaboard the conditions come together that we have a hard time creating here with deeping surface lows of that strength.

Gary

Stephanie

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Glad you had a good time in California! I will be going out there in a couple weeks to celebrate a birthday as well. I'm just curious, why does the SPC jump the gun like this and post predictions on severe weather so far out?
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Marlina,

They never use to, but a 4 to 8 day outlook is just that. It is many days away, and they know, and we know things always change. It is worth thinking about, but let's get another two days closer before we really analyze it.

Gary

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Gary,

First off, welcome back! I am glad to hear your visit went well.

My purpose in blogging this morning is to find out when our next real chance of rain will be...I know that we have a 30% chance tomorrow and Wednesday and then again this weekend, but I was wondering if any of the models are showing better than 30% rain chances. I am hopeful for some more rain, the stressed-out trees and crops need it.

Let me know what you think and have a great day!

Fred
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Fred,

I see a wet spring ahead, so don't worry too much. A storm is going to track just south of us on Tuesday. If the rain gets here it could be heavy, but the models are suggesting it will stop just south of Kansas City.

Gary

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Granted, saying severe weather is imminent a week ahead is a bit irresponsible, but I think noting the conditions may be favorable is valid. It’s that fine line again, but from a planning perspective, I think its fair to look.

Per my last blog entry yesterday, I think you could have already seen this coming weeks/months in advance by really looking at the LRC and revisiting the blog entries in prior cold cycles equating to thus upcoming weekend.

Gary, I will keep pushing the surface aspect of the LRC, as I see it’s becoming more understood and valid. Like I have mentioned several times in your absence…even the weather team is referring the LRC trends in storms..which would indicate surface based long range forecasting. I know this is riskier, but trust the LRC…it may be a more important/robust discovery than you give credit to. [think about it…if the mid levels are consistent, and create a specific type of environment, why wouldn’t the lower levels respond in like?]

Take a moment to look at my last blog entry yesterday with the last 3 cold phase set ups that match this upcoming weekend. The 500s are identical.
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Scott,

It is completely reasonable to talk about the severe weather potential for this weekend, but when to begin talking outbreaks is unreasonable this early. The timing is going to be in question, and for our viewing area at this moment it appears to be a late Saturday night and early Sunday morning time frame which is not always the most ideal time for severe thunderstorms. But, the timing may change.

Now, to the surface aspect of the LRC. You don't have to push me at all. The upper level flow of air is cycling. The results at the surface are very much caused by what is going on in the upper level flow during most of the season. But as each month goes by there will, very likely, be different surface set ups each time through the cycle. But, there will be similarities. So, we are in more agreement than you think. The upper level flow is just more important when looking at the overall weather pattern.

This pattern continues to cycle. You know it, our weather team knows it, and a few meteorologists from around the nation know it. One of these days everyone will know it. We will continue our research. I understand the skeptics points, and there is likely a lot more to the LRC than my simplified view, but it is happening and there is no denying it has finally helped our forecasts during the past two years.

Gary

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Gary, welcome back. You hit the storm for this weekend dead on. I hope you had a great time with your mom. I spoke to mine this morning (in Stonington, CT) and she's in the middle of the nor'easter, right on the coast. She's been through quite a few hurricanes there (going back to the big one in 1938) and said that today and yesterday have been like one, strong winds (not hurricane force) and a lot of hurricane-type rains.
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Matt,

Yes, that storm is a near hurricane force storm.

Gary

I'm trying to determine the next pattern phase from the timing of the major storms. According to the model, wasn't the bigger storms scheduled for the 1st weekend of April? I go back to Jan 13 to Feb 24, the last cycle. 42 days from the 24th was Easter weekend (April 7) Going to the cycle before was Dec 1. So I guess the question is does the model allow a 2-3 day fluctuation? Also, where does the big storms need to hit to verify? Could we be using the Northeast as another focal point and step back a few days.

I also am trying to figure out events in between focus days. Are there "mini cycles" embedded as well?

As said before, many of us meteorologists from around the nation are starting to pick up on this. This becomes twice as valuable as a farmer trying to figure out when to plant this year (last year we were done by this date!!) Keep up the research, and we'll chime in with further details.

Hi Gary-
It looks like you have a great family and had alot of fun in California.
I remember you saying last week that the end of April showed signs of freezing temperatures again. Do you sill think that? And if so, what will happen to the already frozen vegetation after it's had a week to think that it's going to stay warm. How many times can things freeze and thaw before they have permanent damage? My boss, who lives in Princeton, planted his field corn last week before it snowed. What are it's chances?
Glad you are back Gary!!

Susy

We sent in my brother's tape Saturday. Could you tell us if you get it? I like making sure the mail gets to where it is supposed to!!

Hey Big G!
Welcome back! I was thinking about you the whole time we were expecting snow and I was thinking...I bet Gary is kicking himself in the rear right now. As for the rest of your weather team...Even without you they did a GREAT JOB forecasting this storm even with it being so tricky that it's april and everything...anywho I'll be looking forward to some thunderstorm chances coming up. have a good one!

When will we see the new blog?

Any idea what the weather will be like next Thursday, Friday and Saturday-April 26-28?
My garden club is having an outdoor plant sale.

You guys do a great job! Keep up the good work!

Thanks

Sounds like you had fun with your family in California!!!
Hope you had a great time!
Well as you probably already know we missed the snow here in St. Joe, although we got a little rain, so now the next storm that may hit our region this weekend is the "snow" storm that we had a week after the "big" storm in Jan! I'm ready for some good thunderstorm weather, so I'll be waiting:)(hopefully it doesn't totally miss us.)
Nick in (warm/sunny) St. Joe!!!!!!