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"A lot to talk about today"
Good afternoon everyone,
We are about to have a near record or record breaking April cold spell. It will last at least 5 days and there is even a chance of snow on Thursday. I know our regular bloggers were very well prepared and expecting this cold wave to hit in April. And, it will likely be just one of two cold waves that will affect us this month. This is all part of the overall pattern that just continues to cycle. Yes, this is the same pattern that set up last October and early November. This year it is around a 45 day cycle, but there are different phases to it with every other cycle being warm and the others being cold. We are going into the colder phase that should last a while. There will be warm ups in between but overall April will be near or below average compared to the 3rd warmest March ever in Kansas City recorded history.
Before I go on, let's look back at this morning. Last night I went for the potential of a line of thunderstorms in the morning. Sometimes just a chance or a slight chance can become a significant event and this is what happened this morning, but at the same time it isn't a surprise. I said that we may get 10 to 30 minutes of rain and thunderstorms, but I was wrong, as a waitress at First Watch told me this morning. We had 2 hours of rain and thunderstorms. Oh well.
Now let's look ahead. Look below at the NAM precipitation type and temperature forecast for Thursday. The blue is snow and the green is rain. We are IN THE BLUE. But, don't get too excited yet. The GFS does something similar but we are really on the edge. I think by tonight we should be able to tell if there is really a chance of snow. It is not too rare to see a snowflake in April, but it is rather rare to have accumulation.
Above map shows precipitation type forecast for Thursday at 7 PM
Above map shows temperatures for Thursday evening (in the 30s)
Now look below at the overall weather pattern for Sunday. The flow is coming straight out of the north. A similar upper level pattern, unique to this season, has set up many times since October, looking just like this. The second map shows the surface high right over us on Sunday morning. If this is the case then we will likely have a record low and a killing freeze. The average date for the last freeze is April 10th. So, it is not unusual to have a freeze now, but it is rare to have a killing freeze this late. And, remember I expect another chance of a freeze later in the month.
Click to enlarge (GFS 500mb forecast valid Sunday morning)
Click to enlarge (GFS Sfc forecast valid Sunday morning)
So, overall we are at the beginning of what will be at least a 5 day cold wave. Temperatures will likely drop well below freezing on a few of the nights. There could be some snow. And, the pattern just continues to cycle away. We will look further down the road soon. A little hint.....it will warm up a bit next week sometime, but a stormier part of the pattern is likely with eventually another strong cold front within two weeks. Our active pattern continues and we are actually above average on rainfall at this moment.
How about those Royals!!!!!!! They are still undefeated into Wednesday! The strong cold front has just passed through the Kansas City metro area. Temperatures are dropping. Weather is exciting, but I don't want a killing freeze. One more thing......please don't ask me how much snow will fall when we are still trying to figure out if it will snow at all at this moment. Our weather team is ready for any and all comments and ideas. And, our web page will gradually improve, and most importantly this blog should get the old look and feel back very soon.
Posted by at April 3, 2007 11:33 AM
Good afternoon Gary,
It has been a beautiful Spring with the flowers and trees putting on a spectacular show. I hate to see that come to an end this week. On a Saturday a few weeks ago we had a flurry of snow in the air and as I do every year I wondered if that would be the last I saw of snow until later in the year. I guess I am not quite ready to turn that page and would love to see at least snow flying in the air one last time for this season. It does not have to accumulate or cause problems, just a parting goodbye to a good snow lovers winter. As you mentioned, those of us that follow your teachings on the blog are really not surprised at this weeks weather. Thanks, have a great Tuesday.
It will certainly be cold enough. We will see if there is significant damage from the freeze. Sometimes it isn't that bad. I hope not.
Posted by: Keith at April 3, 2007 12:04 PM
It is ridiculous. Where was all this snow in December? I don't want snow now. Its the start of camping season. From what I can tell with the LRC, the "big storm" part of the cycle should hit around the 15-18 of May. Am I right on this? Which means that Memorial Day weekend should be dry? I am still trying to get all this right in my head. I don't need you to go into specifics as I know this is just too far away, just a simple yes it should work out this way according to the LRC or no that is not quite right will be just fine. Thanks for answering my questions.
Almost any weather pattern can produce rain on Memorial Day weekend. That is climatologically the wettest time of the year. I haven't analyzed that week specifically, but it doesn't take much to rain over that weekend. The stormiest part of the cycle is around mid April and again around early June.
Posted by: Keri Worley at April 3, 2007 12:28 PM
Hope you are having a good day so far. I was just wondering if you could inform me on approx. how much rain we recieved in Lee's Summit this morning..
I would guess around 0.33 inches.
Posted by: Brittani at April 3, 2007 12:35 PM
Gary, I believe you mentioned in the blog if we get rain it would be around 7 am. It was a before 7 but who cares it was close enough. Way to go.
It started around 6 AM on the west side.
Posted by: Ann at April 3, 2007 12:43 PM
Gary, in your blog, you mentioned that after this week it would warm up some and get stormier. So are you hinting at a storm or two for next week? Mark
No. The week after, but things can change fast.
Posted by: Mark at April 3, 2007 12:59 PM
Gary...just how much snow...nah I can't do that, lol. I also don't want a killing freeze, I am glad that the wife and I have held off on planting flowers...maybe the last of the month. What do you think?
Wait a while. Then we should know more towards the end of the month.
Posted by: Stephen at April 3, 2007 1:07 PM
Gary the pattern is great. We had a pretty good rain in Berryton early this morning but I haven't had a chance to check the rain gauge. I was expecting the cold and will expect the stormy pattern. I have a feeling that this summer will have its ups and downs. Again on the news this morning, Dr Gray from the hurricane place in Colorado, stated that there could be 17 named storms as a result of 'El Nino". I thought El Nino had weaken and was replaced by La Nina? The inconsistency of weather related terms bothers me sometimes becuase they come from "experts". Anyway on with the LRC. Thanks, Michael
If that is what he said then it was probably due to the fact El Nino is over. But, whatever and good luck. I don't buy it.
Posted by: michael huffman at April 3, 2007 1:34 PM
Gary, Do you feel like some bloggers are trying to start a, oh hate to use this word, but "fight" between you and the other station? It kind bugs me that some are taking parts of information from your blog to confront another station, then info from that site gets put up over here to stir up controversy. I appreciate your teams time and effort put into the forecast and blogs, plus I appreciate the other site, I think my point is some of the bloggers are trying to stir up the pot and I'm not sure that is a good thing.
I would rather not even know what the other blog is doing, but it sort of amuses us at times when their forecast is so far off. If no one points it out to me I think I am better off and then I will not be influenced by a bad forecast. I have fallen into that trap before.
Posted by: Dave C. at April 3, 2007 1:41 PM
Can you give me some details on what would be affected by a "killing freeze?" Obviously I think the tulips would die, but they're only around for a couple of weeks anyway. What are the other affects of a killing freeze?
Tulips are pretty hardy as they often come up and experience a hard freeze. I am not sure how much the freeze will affect our area this week. Let's see what happens, but it could be tough.
Posted by: Marshall at April 3, 2007 1:45 PM
just saying hi. haven't blogged in a while, your still the best weather guy in kc. later, ryan
We are working very hard to hold onto that image.
Posted by: ryan mcmillian at April 3, 2007 1:48 PM
So, the stormy weather of the pattern, something you hinted about in your blog...will that be during the time you are visiting your mom? Is there a possibility you could miss out on a weather event in Kansas City?
Have a great day!
Let's just hope that the storm does not happen while I am gone. My boss would not want me to leave, but it is my Mom's birtday. Sometimes life isn't fair. We will see how it sets up.
Posted by: Fred at April 3, 2007 1:49 PM
I want some snow still! I wish for at least a dusting.
It will be frustrating if it goes through central Kansas.
Posted by: Andrew at April 3, 2007 1:50 PM
Gary this is just a revision. Now on the news Dr. Gray said that El Nino was gone and La Nina is here and it means more hurricanes. I just heard that on the 2:00 O'clock news. That isn't what was said at noon today. Michael/Berryton
That's what I thought.
Posted by: michael huffman at April 3, 2007 2:04 PM
Darn, I missed the thunderstorms although I did get to see a SVR T'storm watch get issued last night for St. Joe! Oh, well there will be more, storm season is still just starting, sometimes I forget April just started!
So snow or no snow you think it will be below 40 degrees Thursday Afternoon!!!!?
This is almost kind of like the "perfect storm" for a damaging cold spell, with a long freakishly warm period tricking the plants into accelerating their growth and then hitting with a very strong cold outbreak!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!!!!!!!!
It is not fair to the plants is it? I think the best chance of snow will be to our west, but we will know more soon.
Posted by: Nick Rau at April 3, 2007 2:49 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about the freeze hurting established plants. Any plant that grows around here has to be able to tolerate an April freeze. Now, if anyone was crazy enough to plant basil or tomatoes outside, they're in trouble.
Very good points! Thank you for the information.
Posted by: Rob at April 3, 2007 3:26 PM
I just love your comment at the end of the blog about the Royals remaining undefeated! Given their recent track record, I don't expect that will last for long, but it's always good to have a sense of humor about it. Thanks for the laugh!
They still haven't lost!
Posted by: Bobbi at April 3, 2007 3:43 PM
Blah. Cold. I will hibernate until mid April. That should be a doozy. I will just be watching the GFS try to fish at it, and start my own shot at long/medium/short term forecasting as it nears. Knowing its coming helps.
Might be ready for a phone call and to mail a birthday card. Hope it works out for you..but..alas..remember the ski trip. Wasn't that the same part of the cycle?
Yes. Isn't that ridiculous. But, I am planning on going no matter what. Unless it looks like a high risk. Right now I am hoping that it just waits two days. It may very well do that. And, the GFS is fishing, so are the other models. There were a couple of bites a few days ago but now it is in chaos.
Posted by: Scott at April 3, 2007 5:25 PM
Hi Gary, just watched your 5 PM forecast. oh my lord. 21º? wow. That'll kill everything including tree leaves wont it? as for the snow that may or may not be coming...people are getting too excited about that. I just don't think it's gonna be a deal at all. Especially the folks who are asking "HOW MUCH!!!??". just a little silly. But yeah if you know anything more about how deadly this could be to the plants cuz I'm a plant lover, let me know. Thanks Gary!
I will do more research on the damage potential over the next 24 hours. If anyone has an idea please let us know.
Posted by: Jonathan Katz at April 3, 2007 5:27 PM
I had .20 inches of rain from the storms this morning at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe. Thanks, Eswar
That total is better than nothing. You must have missed the heaviest downpours.
Posted by: Eswar at April 3, 2007 6:51 PM
If one follows your theory of the weather cycling every 42-45 days, you've cited the stormiest part of the cycle begining with the event of November 30...then January 13 or so, then Feburary 24...
By my math, that puts the next run of your cycle to be expressly stormy around the end of this first week of April...the 7-9.
How do you make this match your cycle?
First of all it isn't exactly 42 or 45 days, but roughly 45 days give or take a few. So, once cycle could be 42, then the next 48. But, 45 days has been almost right on as we go back and look. Now, look at your math: November 30th to January 13th is 44 days. January 13th to February 24th is 42 days. The storm happened around February 28th which is 46 days. So, the next one should be around April 15th or so. It could be April 12th, and I hope not or April 18th which I will be back from California visiting my mom and here for it. So, April 14th is 45 days not April 7-9.
And, I don't "make" anything match the cycle. Nothing is made, it just happens and it is amazing. Just like this cold wave, right on schedule.
Posted by: Jake at April 3, 2007 7:07 PM
Gary, as far as the possibility of a freeze, yes, temps. in the low to mid 20's would definetly, damage tender vegetation i.e. tomatoes, annual flowers and flowering trees. I am no expert but years of experience in the landscape field leads me to believe that most people in our area know what to do. For those who don't, just bring in anything you are worried about. If you can't bring it in cover it with a sheet or cloth, just be sure to remove the cover the next day before daytime heating. To clarify my earlier thought on flowering trees, the trees themselves will be fine, the pretty blooms won't. Again I am just speaking from experience, I'm not George Toma! Say no to snow!!! Go Royals!!!! Peace out. Greg.
Excellent advice! I agree 100%.
Posted by: Greg at April 3, 2007 7:34 PM
I have been reading your blog with much interest lately. I own and operate a landscaping company here int he KC area and Zi wanted to chime in on the freeze damage.
Most of our perennial plants will be just fine from the freeze. Some of the plants who have shot out some rather dramatic lush shoot growth in our unusually wet and warm march may get some burnt edges. However, no permanent damage will be done.
If anybody got a head start and planted any annuals, late season vegetable plants or have tropical plants outside they will be affected.
Another danger from the freeze will be with any seedling that has just begun to come up. The freezing and thawing of the soil each day will have a tendency to heave some of these plants out of the ground and they will die from dessication.
The good news is that the freeze will damage the dandelions worse than any of the plants most people have in their gardens.
I would be happy to answer any other questions people had.
Hamons Custom Landscaping,
This is excellent. Thanks. I will use some of the information on the air and on the radio in the morning.
Posted by: Hamons Custom Landscaping at April 3, 2007 8:07 PM
If the GFS model is correct than their could be very cold low temperatures over the weekend. Many trees already are showing signs of leaves as well. I am not an expert but I would think that low temperatures in the 20-25F range for several hours would cause significant damage for fruit trees, and some flowering plants. It will definitely be like winter for areas of the Upper Midwest though!! Heavy Snow Warnings for Michigan.
Yes, the fruit trees could have a big problem.
Posted by: Devin at April 3, 2007 8:22 PM
I find very interesting comments on this blog. You know we are heading into severe weather season, and I think that one thing we need to address is the saftey rules.....
I want to encourage EVERYONE to use common sense and take a few precautions to insure the safety of their families.
I did not make these up. I only post these becasue I think they are good, and we all need these saftey reminders!
1. Find a safe room, closet or bathroom preferred, without windows to use in case of a tornado. Bathrooms are preferred due to pipes that anchor the rooms to the foundation.
2. Somewhere in your safe room, stash a WORKING flashlight, a small radio and possibly contact phone numbers in case of emergency. It is also a good idea to have a NOAA Weather Radio.
3. Designate the safe room in some way that kids can remember. Help your kids to learn what to do if they are alone during a storm emergency. This is especially important if you leave your kids at your home with babysitters. Most serious injuries from tornadoes and storms happen after dark when people cannot see to prepare.
4. Avoid using candles during power failures, or if you do, make sure that they are carefully monitored and away from paper, curtains or flammable objects.
5. Watch the weather and be smart.
Lightening kills more than any storm and when you have cloud to cloud lightening, you are in a very exposed position.. It is good to remember that as a parent, you have a say in whether your child continues to play an organized game when such conditions are present..
6. Do not drive in water over the road. Period.
7. If you are in a location near the coast or headed to the coast when a tropical storm or hurricane is imminent, remember that no matter how small the storm, there are still consequences. The stories about folks who have "hurricane parties" are true.
Unfortunately some of those folks are also dead. It won't kill you to wait it out inland and save the drama and emergency for those who HAVE to go through it in their hometown. Disasters don't need tourism. And you CAN get out of the way of a hurricane if you pay attention and don't wait until the last minute.
8. Have some sort of canned food and extra personal medications if you anticipate a serious storm.
9. Use you head when dealing with weather., I am tired of the foolishness that turns into tragedy. BE SMART ABOUT WEATHER!
Again, I only post these rules because I think they are important to review. Maybe Gary can put them somewhere else on the site. I found these on the net, but they are general rules.
Posted by: Brian at April 3, 2007 9:46 PM